World sits at brink of WW3 and no thread?

Hard to feel sympathetic towards any of the sides in this one. I thought this was a pretty good primer:

 

http://pando.com/2014/02/24/everything-you...raine-is-wrong/

Russia has invaded a neighbor, the US President is sitting on his ass, and gas prices have shot up.

 

I've been listening to the Bee Gees, Doobie Brothers, and STYX all day since it's apparently 1979 again.

I don't think this is "WWIII", though. This seems like a repeat of the Georgia/South Ossetia thing from 2008 in terms of global politics more than anything.

Its more than Georgia/Ossetia. I think that Russia is going to back down, but they are definitely testing their power right now.

I'm not sure how much legitimacy the new government in Kiev really has right now. They certainly don't have the support of a majority of Ukrainians.

Its more than Georgia/Ossetia. I think that Russia is going to back down, but they are definitely testing their power right now.

How so? There was a heckuva lot more shooting in the Georgia campaign than there has been in this one.

I'm not sure how much legitimacy the new government in Kiev really has right now. They certainly don't have the support of a majority of Ukrainians.

 

Eastern Ukraine? No. Western Ukraine? Yes

Russia has invaded a neighbor, the US President is sitting on his ass, and gas prices have shot up.

 

I've been listening to the Bee Gees, Doobie Brothers, and STYX all day since it's apparently 1979 again.

 

Yes because we should lock horns with a legit super power that is Russia.

Eastern Ukraine? No. Western Ukraine? Yes

 

Ukraine is Ukraine, though. Short of Ukraine splitting into two, they still don't have wide-spread support.

One of the first actions of the new parliament in Kiev was to repeal a law that allowed regions to use Russian as a second official language.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-...ussian-takeover

 

A week after the government of Viktor Yanukovich was removed from power by pro-Western protesters, new leaders in the capital city of Kiev passed a law that made Ukraine the official language of the country, irking tens of thousands of Russian speakers in the east and southeast. The law replaces a 2012 law that allowed for two official languages in regions where the size of the ethnic minority exceeds 10%.

 

Apart from the Russian-majority regions affected by the new language law, Hungarians, Moldovans and Romanians also lost their status as official languages in several towns in Western Ukraine.

Some more longer background reads:

 

Ukraine: The Haze of Propaganda (pro-Ukrainian nationalist a bit)

Crimea, the Tinderbox

Ukraine: The Price of Internal Division

One of the first actions of the new parliament in Kiev was to repeal a law that allowed regions to use Russian as a second official language.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-...ussian-takeover

 

So we should be expecting 3 more invasion forces?

I don't know that portraying what Russia's done so far as an "invasion" really makes sense. Last I had read, they had deployed a whole bunch of people to Crimea, but they have a huge naval base and existing treaties for military forces to be there and the new Crimean government asked them to come.

Edited March 3, 201412 yr by StrangeSox

I don't know that portraying what Russia's done so far as an "invasion" really makes sense. Last I had read, they had deployed a whole bunch of people to Crimea, but they have a huge naval base and existing treaties for military forces to be there and the new Crimean government asked them to come.

 

 

Russia has invaded a neighbor, the US President is sitting on his ass, and gas prices have shot up.

 

I've been listening to the Bee Gees, Doobie Brothers, and STYX all day since it's apparently 1979 again.

 

 

I hate Fox News and everyone who listens to them.

 

OBAMA AND THE ENTIRE EU IS GOING TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS AND ISOLATE RUSSIA

 

This is the RIGHT and PRUDENT move.

 

Why the f*** do you guys all want BOOTZ ON DUH GROWND NOW OR YOU FAILZ OBAAMMA!

 

 

Russian forces are there at the request of the Crimean government (which itself took power in a coup a week or so ago). It's a show military strength for sure, but the word "invasion" just doesn't seem to fit, at least to me. Intervention or something seems better, but really just arguing semantics at this point.

 

Does Crimea have a right to independence from Ukraine?

Edited March 3, 201412 yr by StrangeSox

Does Crimea have a right to independence from Ukraine?

Not under any reasonable definition of "right" based on some variety of law, but it's worth stressing that the territory was basically given to Ukraine as a bookkeeping operation when both areas were part of the USSR and beforehand this area would have been considered part of Russia.

I also think its Putin flexing muscles for now. I think it is bigger than Georgia because of this:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memo...rity_Assurances

Edited March 3, 201412 yr by Knuckles

I think Putin is afraid of Ukraine joining the EU and losing the free access to the oil lines that run through the country that RUSSIA set up back in USSR days. It's not unlikely that he's looking into re-annexation as the ultimate end-game...

I think Russia is a net-exporter. They only lose access to those pipelines if Europe decides it doesn't need natural gas.

Russia's obligated to protect their armories in the Ukraine. The last thing the world needs is for whatever weapons they have to find their way into the black market.

I think Putin is afraid of Ukraine joining the EU and losing the free access to the oil lines that run through the country that RUSSIA set up back in USSR days. It's not unlikely that he's looking into re-annexation as the ultimate end-game...

It seems extremely unlikely that Russia has the military strength to occupy and pacify the parts of the Ukraine that just toppled te government. They were able to do this step because they didn't have to fight. They could beat the Ukraine in a straight fight against their army but they don't have nearly the level of resources it would take to pacify the state afterwards.

How so? There was a heckuva lot more shooting in the Georgia campaign than there has been in this one.

 

US and Russia signed a treaty about Ukraine.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memo...rity_Assurances

 

It would be hard for the US to let Russia take any of the land we already agreed to protect.

It seems extremely unlikely that Russia has the military strength to occupy and pacify the parts of the Ukraine that just toppled te government. They were able to do this step because they didn't have to fight. They could beat the Ukraine in a straight fight against their army but they don't have nearly the level of resources it would take to pacify the state afterwards.

 

their standing army is double the size of ours...