I think Noesi is a good focus point for discussion, because ideally our future rotation will go Sale-RHSP-Quintana-RHSP-Rodon. Ideally IMO we could sign someone in the offseason to take the #2 RHSP slot and Noesi would take another step forward and take that 4th slot. If we could sign a #2/#3 quality RHSP with Noesi being a #3/#4 quality RHSP then we have an ace at the 1 spot, a 2-3 at the 3 spot, and someone who could become a true ace at the 5. That would make for a terrific future rotation.

 

So getting to Noesi, it just seems like the velocity variance is nowhere near enough. There are 2 small velocity ranges he offers and they are very close together. Noesi has a very good change and a very good fastball, and he's around the corners a lot and controls these pitches very well given their break. He's a strike thrower who gets a lot of quality contact outs and can work deep into a game on a low pitch count because of it, but the problem is that by the time the lineup rolls over for the second time the hitters seem to have things pretty well timed.

 

So I'm thinking that obviously Noesi needs another pitch at a much lower velocity range. The curve flashes as a sometimes decent pitch but it's really more of a "show me" pitch (Hawkism) than anything he could hope to rely on. The change up is really more like a splitter than anything else though, and so I am thinking Noesi should spend the offseason working on a more conventional (claw/full hand grip) type of changeup to mix in with the splitter-like change and the fastball. If he could drop some extra velocity and add a thrid range of velocity then he will have a weapon that should get him through the 2nd time through the lineup much easier, and also, a more conventional change could also set up a 4 seam fastball lower in the zone, and effectively give him 4 pitches. I.E. he can throw the sinking fastball as he does OR the change breaking down in the zone, and in scenarios where the hitter is expecting a sinking FB or split-change to drop out of the zone he could try to spot the change (less break) or the 4-seamer and have 2 weapons potentially enabling him to catch called 3rd strikes in batter chase situations.

 

So please enter thoughts and so on in the fields below.

Here's the standard FA list:

 

Starting Pitchers

 

Brett Anderson (27) – $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Josh Beckett (35)

Chad Billingsley (30) – $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout

Joe Blanton (34)

A.J. Burnett (38) – mutual option

Chris Capuano (36)

Bruce Chen (38) – $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Wei-Yin Chen (29) – $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout

Kevin Correia (34)

Johnny Cueto (29) – $10MM club option with an $800K buyout

Jorge De La Rosa (34)

Ryan Dempster (38)

Gavin Floyd (32)

Yovani Gallardo (29) – $13MM club option with a $600K buyout

Jason Hammel (32)

J.A. Happ (32) – $6.7MM club option

Aaron Harang (37)

Dan Haren (34) – $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014

Roberto Hernandez (34)

Hisashi Iwakuma (34) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Josh Johnson (31) – $4MM club option

Kyle Kendrick (30)

Hiroki Kuroda (40)

Jon Lester (31)

Colby Lewis (35)

Francisco Liriano (31)

Paul Maholm (33)

Justin Masterson (30)

Brandon McCarthy (31)

Brandon Morrow (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Felipe Paulino (31) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout

Jake Peavy (34)

Wandy Rodriguez (36)

Ervin Santana (32)

Joe Saunders (34)

Max Scherzer (30)

James Shields (33)

Misael Siverio (24)

Carlos Villanueva (31)

Ryan Vogelsong (37)

Edinson Volquez (30)

Jerome Williams (33)

 

I don't think we need to worry about lefties/righties. I think we sign two of the above in the "reclamation project" range, and make a trade for a young starter with a mid-rotation ceiling.

So in summation: IMO Hector should spend the offseason working on a Mark Buehrle type change or a circle change. If he can refine that then he could use his 4seamer more often, have 3 distinct velocity ranges, and either use the curve as a "show me" 5th pitch or ditch it completely as it will be unnecessary/redundant.

 

*Edit: if he could do this then I think he will become a solid #3 and a core piece. If he can't I would try to trade him and continue to upgrade. As it is he's a great value at his price tag and performance but I would want more out of my rotation in general.

Edited August 31, 201411 yr by The Ultimate Champion

So in summation: IMO Hector should spend the offseason working on a Mark Buehrle type change or a circle change. If he can refine that then he could use his 4seamer more often, have 3 distinct velocity ranges, and either use the curve as a "show me" 5th pitch or ditch it completely as it will be unnecessary/redundant.

 

*Edit: if he could do this then I think he will become a solid #3 and a core piece. If he can't I would try to trade him and continue to upgrade. As it is he's a great value at his price tag and performance but I would want more out of my rotation in general.

I think there's a very good chance we see a much more advanced Noesi next year. He's getting his feet wet with these pitching coaches this year, this offseason would be an excellent time for him to grow a lot.

You know I haven't seen him in a while & I know he's been hurt but if Brandon Morrow has anything in the tank/has recovered then he's an ideal "buy low" type because that guy used to have great stuff along with the build of a true workhorse ace. In fact the year he got hurt I was thinking he was going to be a Cy Young contender that year.

 

Also I don't want Masterson. Shields as others have noted many times here would be a great fit if the price is right in terms of years.

I don't think we need to worry about lefties/righties. I think we sign two of the above in the "reclamation project" range, and make a trade for a young starter with a mid-rotation ceiling.

Justin Masterson does seem like he makes some sense for this roster if you could get a contract with an option year or two on it. It might take more than we'd want to pay for a reclamation project but you also wouldn't be making a huge, unending commitment to him. You also wouldn't feel bad benching him for Rodon if he gets out pitched if you don't spend too much on him.

Am I crazy for thinking one of Montas or Danish will be in the rotation by the end of the year?

I like Noesi and expect him to be in the rotation next year

Am I crazy for thinking one of Montes or Danish will be in the rotation by the end of the year?

For any other team I'd say yes, but this team does push people insanely fast.

I don't mind Noesi but I think his best role on any team seriously trying to contender is the swing man out of the pen who can spot start or maybe a 5th starter if he does improve in the offseason.

I don't mind Noesi but I think his best role on any team seriously trying to contender is the swing man out of the pen who can spot start or maybe a 5th starter if he does improve in the offseason.

He's already been an above-average 5th starter for us. There's nothing wrong with a cheap 5th starter who takes the ball every 5-6 days and gives you a chance to win some, that's more than most competitive teams have.

Am I crazy for thinking one of Montes or Danish will be in the rotation by the end of the year?

 

Wouldn't be surprised at all. Both should start the year at AA, so it's not crazy to think 1 or both could be knocking on the door.

Noesi will be a solid #5 for us; maybe a #4.

Three more top 1/2 of rotation starters would help. Rodon should be one by sometime in 15. Sign one. And then maybe develop one in the next couple of years.

Edited August 31, 201411 yr by GreenSox

Sale

Latos

Quintana

Noesi

Rodon

 

Looks good, rite?

 

I think Montas is a reliever long term. Jury is out on Danish

Sale

Latos

Quintana

Noesi

Rodon

 

Looks good, rite?

 

I think Montas is a reliever long term. Jury is out on Danish

If you can tell me what happened to Danks without writing him a $28.5 million check to play someone else, I'll agree. But that's the case for any of those expensive free agent righties.

Sale

Latos

Quintana

Noesi

Rodon

 

Looks good, rite?

 

I think Montas is a reliever long term. Jury is out on Danish

If that's next year's rotation then we had BETTER have a Major League catcher behind the plate. That's a WS contender with a quality bullpen and a couple extra pieces on offense.

That's Rick's job.

If you can tell me what happened to Danks without writing him a $28.5 million check to play someone else, I'll agree. But that's the case for any of those expensive free agent righties.

IIRC it's about a $10.5M paycheck broken in half over 2 years to make him a 2-year, $9M LHSP on another team. That's doable I think. Will the Sox penny pinch & act like babies about it, and cry poor again? Probably, but it's doable I'd bet.

IIRC it's about a $10.5M paycheck broken in half over 2 years to make him a 2-year, $9M LHSP on another team. That's doable I think. Will the Sox penny pinch & act like babies about it, and cry poor again? Probably, but it's doable I'd bet.

And if the White Sox are spending $10 million a season to send John Danks elsewhere, they're not likey to spend $10 mil a year on another pitcher.

Here's the standard FA list:

 

Starting Pitchers

 

Brett Anderson (27) – $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Josh Beckett (35)

Chad Billingsley (30) – $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout

Joe Blanton (34)

A.J. Burnett (38) – mutual option

Chris Capuano (36)

Bruce Chen (38) – $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Wei-Yin Chen (29) – $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout

Kevin Correia (34)

Johnny Cueto (29) – $10MM club option with an $800K buyout

Jorge De La Rosa (34)

Ryan Dempster (38)

Gavin Floyd (32)

Yovani Gallardo (29) – $13MM club option with a $600K buyout

Jason Hammel (32)

J.A. Happ (32) – $6.7MM club option

Aaron Harang (37)

Dan Haren (34) – $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014

Roberto Hernandez (34)

Hisashi Iwakuma (34) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Josh Johnson (31) – $4MM club option

Kyle Kendrick (30)

Hiroki Kuroda (40)

Jon Lester (31)

Colby Lewis (35)

Francisco Liriano (31)

Paul Maholm (33)

Justin Masterson (30)

Brandon McCarthy (31)

Brandon Morrow (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Felipe Paulino (31) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout

Jake Peavy (34)

Wandy Rodriguez (36)

Ervin Santana (32)

Joe Saunders (34)

Max Scherzer (30)

James Shields (33)

Misael Siverio (24)

Carlos Villanueva (31)

Ryan Vogelsong (37)

Edinson Volquez (30)

Jerome Williams (33)

 

I don't think we need to worry about lefties/righties. I think we sign two of the above in the "reclamation project" range, and make a trade for a young starter with a mid-rotation ceiling.

 

I know they're lefties, but I'm interested in Anderson and Liriano.

If you can tell me what happened to Danks without writing him a $28.5 million check to play someone else, I'll agree. But that's the case for any of those expensive free agent righties.

 

Bullpen and emergency starter. Depth

He's a sunk cost. Do what you can with him.

Bullpen and emergency starter. Depth

He's a sunk cost. Do what you can with him.

 

I agree with this. Is it asinine to think he could be part of the bullpen solution seeing how they have to pay him anyway? Also, is it possible that a young arm not named Rodon could contribute to the rotation next year? Perhaps Bassit impresses for the rest of the season and can earn a spot? I know Danish and Months are too far away to contribute in 2015.

Well it would certainly be lovely if Erik Johnson takes a trip to Oz this offseason to find he had the talent all along.

Trade danks for edwin jackson and throw in some cash. Jackson's FIP is 4.33 this season and 3.79 last so he's better than the numbers say. Then take a flier on a guy like Josh Beckett, Justin Masterson, or a Colby Lewis. Heck I would even be ok with Jake returning for a season. Noesi is serviceable, but not someone you want on a contending team. Nowadays, an era over 4.00 is poor, especially if he is not going to give you 200 IP. Flip him for a reliever or something, while he still has value.

Trade danks for edwin jackson and throw in some cash. Jackson's FIP is 4.33 this season and 3.79 last so he's better than the numbers say. Then take a flier on a guy like Josh Beckett, Justin Masterson, or a Colby Lewis. Heck I would even be ok with Jake returning for a season. Noesi is serviceable, but not someone you want on a contending team. Nowadays, an era over 4.00 is poor, especially if he is not going to give you 200 IP. Flip him for a reliever or something, while he still has value.

 

Some guys are just not as good as their numbers say, whether it is a flaw in the numbers, or whatever else can be argued. Edwin Jackson is one of those guys. Incredible stuff, just never quite realized how to use it.