http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/courtney-ha...vements-enough/

"I've never seen Hawkins get an extra base hit off of a fastball."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/courtney-ha...vements-enough/

 

a great read.

 

thanks

Insta-depressing. Makes one want to think trade ASAP. while mystery remains.

 

what the hell happened to the CF notion? all the tools

Insta-depressing. Makes one want to think trade ASAP. while mystery remains.

 

what the hell happened to the CF notion? all the tools

 

major talent potential never fulfilled.

The issue with the fastball is the most concerning thing in that article, IMO.

I think the stuff about him lacking speed is just a product of general pessimism. Few people thought he was a longterm CF from the start, despite him being a strong athlete.

"Puts on impressive shows at batting practice..." IOW, he would rather show off his power in BP than improving his swing, hitting to opposite field, etc. Reminds me of Ian Stewart, a former first rounder obsessed with hitting bombs in BP, now out of The Show.

"Puts on impressive shows at batting practice..." IOW, he would rather show off his power in BP than improving his swing, hitting to opposite field, etc. Reminds me of Ian Stewart, a former first rounder obsessed with hitting bombs in BP, now out of The Show.

 

Or it was just a compliment that he sometimes hits it very far in batting practice

Or it was just a compliment that he sometimes hits it very far in batting practice

 

He was commenting on the player's mindset, not the article.

He was commenting on the player's mindset, not the article.

 

And I'm saying the article's comment about batting practice wasn't meant to indicate that CH wastes his BP slugging bombs, just that he has been seen hitting longballs in some batting practices.

The issue with the fastball is the most concerning thing in that article, IMO.

 

Yeah, I figured he was crushing fastballs and hangers, but...if he's just crushing hangers.

 

This org really needs to dive into what it is doing wrong with position player development.

At least he can do a backflip.

I think the stuff about him lacking speed is just a product of general pessimism. Few people thought he was a longterm CF from the start, despite him being a strong athlete.

 

He did say he's seen him play in a couple dozen games. I think his point was more along the lines of Hawkins isn't going to be getting to the majors by playing great defense and stealing bases; he needs to develop his hit tool more, specifically his pitch recognition.

 

 

And I'm saying the article's comment about batting practice wasn't meant to indicate that CH wastes his BP slugging bombs, just that he has been seen hitting longballs in some batting practices.

 

Yeah, and OldSox was speculating that maybe Hawkins falls in love with the longball because of what he sees he is capable of in BP and then sells out in games to replicate those bombs. I remember in his rookie season he was constantly reweeting anyone who would give him high praise or compliment how far he hit the ball or how great he would be. It seemed as if he was soaking in all the dreams of being a superstar and it was getting to his head a bit.

 

I too feel that a lot of his growth will come from between the ears, and that's when he will really shine.

My main point regarding the speed issue is that I'm not fully convinced that he's been reduced to a one-tool player who will live and die solely with his bat. I don't see why he can't be a solid or better defensive player who doesn't have to be a well-rounded hitter to make it as a MLB regular.

My main point regarding the speed issue is that I'm not fully convinced that he's been reduced to a one-tool player who will live and die solely with his bat. I don't see why he can't be a solid or better defensive player who doesn't have to be a well-rounded hitter to make it as a MLB regular.

 

For what it's worth, he did give Hawkins a 50 field grade, 50-55 arm, and 45 speed, which is roughly average. With his 70 raw power, all he needs is enough of a hit tool to let the rest be able to play. The only particularly pessimistic thing about that assessment is that just being an MLB regular would be something of a disappointment for Hawkins.

 

 

For what it's worth, he did give Hawkins a 50 field grade, 50-55 arm, and 45 speed, which is roughly average. With his 70 raw power, all he needs is enough of a hit tool to let the rest be able to play. The only particularly pessimistic thing about that assessment is that just being an MLB regular would be something of a disappointment for Hawkins.

Huh?

 

Seriously, how many guys drafted in-between 10-20 out of high school even become MLB regulars? It's less than 50% even without a year of struggling like Hawkins went through.

Huh?

 

Seriously, how many guys drafted in-between 10-20 out of high school even become MLB regulars? It's less than 50% even without a year of struggling like Hawkins went through.

 

Not many. If he managed to be an MLB regular, he'd probably be one of the more successful picks of the first round. Are you telling me that you weren't at least a little disappointed with how Beckham turned out? That's a pretty similar situation.

Edited January 2, 201511 yr by gatnom

Not many. If he managed to be an MLB regular, he'd probably be one of the more successful picks of the first round. Are you telling me that you weren't at least a little disappointed with how Beckham turned out? That's a pretty similar situation.

Beckham was first a top 10 pick and second actually produced at an all star pace both in the minors and in his first stint in the big leagues.

 

You're disappointed any time a first round pick becomes a backup MLB player, but you're disappointed when you choose heads and a coin flip comes up tails. That doesn't mean you shouldn't understand the odds.

 

If Hawkins became a "MLB Regular" from this point I'd be thrilled.

Beckham was first a top 10 pick and second actually produced at an all star pace both in the minors and in his first stint in the big leagues.

 

You're disappointed any time a first round pick becomes a backup MLB player, but you're disappointed when you choose heads and a coin flip comes up tails. That doesn't mean you shouldn't understand the odds.

 

If Hawkins became a "MLB Regular" from this point I'd be thrilled.

 

As would I. I was just disagreeing with Jake that Stoltz was taking a too negative stance on Hawkins.

 

 

He is still quite young. In fact, he could repeat A+ yet again and STILL be on the young side for the level. Keep that in mind.

 

Also, the key to me is, he fixed a LOT of things in 2014. Not all of them, but the fact that he made that many adjustments at that age is impressive, and makes it more likely in my view that he can continue improvements.

 

I also disagree to a certain degree about a complete inability to recognize pitches. In the article I wrote in a similar vein in April for FutureSox, I found multiple videos (including one I took) where you could see him hitch to respond to offspeed and still mash. I think that particular part of Nathaniel's analysis was too strident towards the negative.

 

He's still a T10 guy for me, though no longer T5, in this system.

 

He is still quite young. In fact, he could repeat A+ yet again and STILL be on the young side for the level. Keep that in mind.

 

Also, the key to me is, he fixed a LOT of things in 2014. Not all of them, but the fact that he made that many adjustments at that age is impressive, and makes it more likely in my view that he can continue improvements.

 

I also disagree to a certain degree about a complete inability to recognize pitches. In the article I wrote in a similar vein in April for FutureSox, I found multiple videos (including one I took) where you could see him hitch to respond to offspeed and still mash. I think that particular part of Nathaniel's analysis was too strident towards the negative.

 

He's still a T10 guy for me, though no longer T5, in this system.

 

i forgot about this, he did indeed improve a crap load. either way, i still like

his potential.

He is still quite young. In fact, he could repeat A+ yet again and STILL be on the young side for the level. Keep that in mind.

 

Also, the key to me is, he fixed a LOT of things in 2014. Not all of them, but the fact that he made that many adjustments at that age is impressive, and makes it more likely in my view that he can continue improvements.

 

I also disagree to a certain degree about a complete inability to recognize pitches. In the article I wrote in a similar vein in April for FutureSox, I found multiple videos (including one I took) where you could see him hitch to respond to offspeed and still mash. I think that particular part of Nathaniel's analysis was too strident towards the negative.

 

He's still a T10 guy for me, though no longer T5, in this system.

 

I've known several guys throughout my time in baseball who learned to ID offspeed pitches, but for whatever reason still had little ability to be disciplined on them. They'd be tickled s***less that they recognized the curveball, so they would swing without even realizing it was an unhittable location.

 

I do wonder what level he'll start at in 2015. A+ would still seem appropriate, but it's hard to imagine any team having a player of his caliber repeat that level a third time. That's especially true when considering how small the SAL is.

I think it's all but certain that Hawkins starts at AA next year.