Why NOT trade Chris Sale?

[OmarComing25]

That is at least 140% impact on every game with out accounting for a bullpen. I would put position players at a 7% average and SP at about 32% with the bullpen being the other 5%.

 

SP win impact would 9.92 over a season. (31 starts x 32% impact)

Position player impact would be 10.5 (150 starts x 7% impact)

I wasn't saying those were the real percentages, obviously it doesn't add up. I was just using a hypothetical example.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-is-ther...for-mvp-debate/

 

You’ve read something like this before: Position players and pitchers end up being involved in a similar number of events. Position players have times at bat, and fielding opportunities. Pitchers have all their plate appearances. The numbers don’t come out exactly equal, and then position players tend to have a little more control than pitchers do, but that’s one way of saying they’re about the same. If two guys are involved in 800 plate appearances, who cares how they’re spread out?

 

We can also look at this a little differently. For the sake of example, let’s use some numbers from Baseball-Reference. This will identify two particular players in 2014, but I’m trying to make a more general point. According to B-R, an otherwise average team in 2014 would have a winning percentage of .533 with Giancarlo Stanton starting. An otherwise average team in 2014 would have a winning percentage of .745 with Clayton Kershaw starting. If you figure Kershaw starts 20% of the time, then that team’s overall winning percentage would be .549. A position player can make a little impact a lot of the time. A starting pitcher can make a big impact some of the time.

 

Now, that’s just a different way of expressing WAR. That doesn’t make a new point — that’s a different way of making the same point. As anecdotal evidence, you could just consider that, in 2014, the Dodgers are 21-4 when Kershaw’s taken the mound. All people are doing is arguing value distribution. Player 1 generates 10total bases in one game, then none in the next four. Player 2 generates two total bases in each of the five games. A lot of people out there would prefer the consistent impact of Player 2, even though Player 1 did a ton to improve his team’s odds of winning one game.

 

To use real-world examples, I took all the players worth at least 6 WAR in a season between 2011 and 2013. This left me with fairly small samples, and not everything is properly controlled, but just to make a simple and general point: When those position players started, their teams won 54% of the time. When those pitchers started, their teams won 66% of the time. The best pitchers give an overwhelmingly greater single-game advantage than the best position players. This gets balanced out by the fact that pitchers might top out around 34 starts, but the advantage they begin with is huge.

[harfman77]

Using this logic, every position player is more valuable than any pitcher?

 

No, it is saying that if you have a superstar position player and a super star pitcher the position player is more valuable or if you have a replacement level position player and pitcher. Mike Trout is more valuable than any pitcher because he impacts more games.

[LDF]

That's such an odd way to look at it. Machado impacted 162 games last year. Sale impacted 31.

 

but in a game that really counts, the sp will go 9 innings and at a minimum of 27 batters.

 

i that game, a really good hitter will face a pitcher maybe 4 x.... and of those minimum 4 x, the pitcher will pitch away, walk then if really needed. thereby making him as a person who is on the sideline. in other words he will do no damage.

[TaylorStSox]

but in a game that really counts, the sp will go 9 innings and at a minimum of 27 batters.

 

i that game, a really good hitter will face a pitcher maybe 4 x.... and of those minimum 4 x, the pitcher will pitch away, walk then if really needed. thereby making him as a person who is on the sideline. in other words he will do no damage.

If counter that extreme example with another, Barry Bonds.

[OmarComing25]

No, it is saying that if you have a superstar position player and a super star pitcher the position player is more valuable or if you have a replacement level position player and pitcher. Mike Trout is more valuable than any pitcher because he impacts more games.

There is certainly an argument to be had that position players are more valuable on average than pitchers, especially in the current offense-starved environment, but that's what we have WAR for anyway. Just using # of games played/impacted is lazy analysis. There's a lot more that goes into it. Despite only starting 27 games in 2014, Kershaw had the highest WAR in the National League that year. In the 5 years from 1998-2002, Randy Johnson had more cumulative WAR than Barry Bonds, the best position player isn't always more valuable than the best starting pitcher.

[LDF]

If counter that extreme example with another, Barry Bonds.

 

ok lets go with bond, playoff time. 1 game... bond vs sale. all things being equal.

 

sale, pitches around bond if the ball is outside the strike zone ok he may swing or not.

 

if not, 4 balls he walks. sale hereby negated bonds at bat. do that 3 more times. so what, sale just took the best weapon had in bond out of the game by walking him.

 

 

[LDF]

There is certainly an argument to be had that position players are more valuable on average than pitchers, especially in the current offense-starved environment, but that's what we have WAR for anyway. Just using # of games played/impacted is lazy analysis. There's a lot more that goes into it. Despite only starting 27 games in 2014, Kershaw had the highest WAR in the National League that year. In the 5 years from 1998-2002, Randy Johnson had more cumulative WAR than Barry Bonds, the best position player isn't always more valuable than the best starting pitcher.

 

it is more important to have a well rounded lineup who can do damages on the pitchers, surrounding your srperstar with key players.

 

i a game that #1 sp who is elite can not duck the other team players if they are avg or above.

[harfman77]

ok lets go with bond, playoff time. 1 game... bond vs sale. all things being equal.

 

sale, pitches around bond if the ball is outside the strike zone ok he may swing or not.

 

if not, 4 balls he walks. sale hereby negated bonds at bat. do that 3 more times. so what, sale just took the best weapon had in bond out of the game by walking him.

 

But then Bonds is already on base, which is still a win for his team rather then the 67% chance that he would have gotten out.

[LDF]

But then Bonds is already on base, which is still a win for his team rather then the 67% chance that he would have gotten out.

 

and in a playoff game, who cares, then the setup is for a double play.

 

if bond was up and did a mono a mono against the pitcher and won that battle, his whole team gets pump up.

[GreenSox]

The question is in the title. Why should they keep him? Why should they not? You know where I lean, but as an economist, that always garners an "it depends."

 

I'm drunk and bored and want to light a fire. I like chaos.

 

But seriously..why not? I've been away. Talk to me goose.

Fine with me, if you get a fair return.

A fair return for Sale would improve the Sox, imo.

The odds of a fair return are slim. Next year may be a better chance at a fair return (no Prices on the market). But hopefully the Sox have made a lot of progress over the next year that would increase trade reluctance.

[asindc]

Oh, they can get a ton of ranked prospects. The problem is, you can't trade Chris Sale for prospects and have those prospects bust. Like the Reed/Davidson trade where the line "I'd make that trade 10 times out of 10" was invented. That can't happen for Sale or Q or Rodon. People b****ed and moaned KW traded not so good prospects and got some major league value back. Trading prospects who turn into tremendous major leaguers for more maybes is a way to keep your team bad for a long time.

 

This x100. "Maybes" are called such for a good reason, after all.

 

[dpd9189]

If someone offers Hahn a Herschel Walker trade for Sale, then pull the trigger. Sale is great but the Sox are an organization with no identity or plan right now. I'd like to see them try to build a consistent winner rather than try to throw crap at the wall every year to see what sticks.

 

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Exactly. We're not moving Sale unless it's a ridiculous offer.

 

Like if LAD wanted him: Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Julio Urias and DeLeon type of package.

[winninguglyin83]

If he keeps whining about the non-tendering of The Whiff King catcher, send Sale on his way.

[asindc]

If someone offers Hahn a Herschel Walker trade for Sale, then pull the trigger. Sale is great but the Sox are an organization with no identity or plan right now. I'd like to see them try to build a consistent winner rather than try to throw crap at the wall every year to see what sticks.

 

I disagree.

[BlackSox13]

If he keeps whining about the non-tendering of The Whiff King catcher, send Sale on his way.

He wasn't whining at all. He was just as surprised as anyone so he called Hahn to find out what the direction of the team was. No big deal.

[winninguglyin83]

Direction of the team?

 

Who would possibly consider cutting ties with Tyler Flowers as a sign that the White Sox aren't interested in competing in 2016?

 

If they dumped Abreu, Eaton, Robertson or Rodon, yes, there would be a question to ask.

 

But Flowers?

 

Just a guy -- even though he has obviously been a Sale favorite.

 

 

[BlackSox13]

According to Sale yes, direction of the team. You would have to talk to Sale about exactly what he meant. As I said, he was shocked like many others. I didn't read much into his comments.

[Wanne]

Exactly. We're not moving Sale unless it's a ridiculous offer.

 

Like if LAD wanted him: Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Julio Urias and DeLeon type of package.

 

this...and by A LOT! LAD are desperate right now I'd imagine given the DBags signing Greinke...who knows. But I'd definitely be inclined to deal Sale for an overwhelming blockbuster to the Dodgers or Cubs. Sale's elbow just scares the s*** outta me and if you get the chance to get a HAUL for him right now...you do it IMO. I realize he's a once in a generation-type lefty pitcher...but good lord...it's the Sox luck his ulnar gives. Not trying to throw bad vibes...just being practical.

[The Ginger Kid]

I like that Sale had a good working relationship with his catcher and based on everything I've read about Avila and Navarro, that should continue.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

this...and by A LOT! LAD are desperate right now I'd imagine given the DBags signing Greinke...who knows. But I'd definitely be inclined to deal Sale for an overwhelming blockbuster to the Dodgers or Cubs. Sale's elbow just scares the s*** outta me and if you get the chance to get a HAUL for him right now...you do it IMO. I realize he's a once in a generation-type lefty pitcher...but good lord...it's the Sox luck his ulnar gives. Not trying to throw bad vibes...just being practical.

I like my trade predictions at WM a lot. Q to LAD

[Bigsoxhurt35]

this...and by A LOT! LAD are desperate right now I'd imagine given the DBags signing Greinke...who knows. But I'd definitely be inclined to deal Sale for an overwhelming blockbuster to the Dodgers or Cubs. Sale's elbow just scares the s*** outta me and if you get the chance to get a HAUL for him right now...you do it IMO. I realize he's a once in a generation-type lefty pitcher...but good lord...it's the Sox luck his ulnar gives. Not trying to throw bad vibes...just being practical.

Why does it scare you? He's not at any more of a risk than the stud pitchers who have suffered them (Harvey, Fernandez, etc.)

[Wanne]

Why does it scare you? He's not at any more of a risk than the stud pitchers who have suffered them (Harvey, Fernandez, etc.)

 

Not sure...just his overall motion which some have mentioned. I know many have suffered it..but the point is capitalize BEFORE it happens. Who knows...for his sake I hope it never does. At this point I think I'd rather take a huge haul in return.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Not sure...just his overall motion which some have mentioned. I know many have suffered it..but the point is capitalize BEFORE it happens. Who knows...for his sake I hope it never does. At this point I think I'd rather take a huge haul in return.

I mean I've said all along the LAD make most sense due to prospects and young bats.

[2nd_city_saint787]

For me, it's not about percentage of chances to impact the game, injury possibilities, "whining about Flowers", or anything about unicorns. To me, it's all about the strength of SP and the weakness of hitting in the organization as a whole.

 

Trading Sale or Q, I would prefer Q, would be all about 2017 in my eyes. Yes, they just signed 2 old catcher to 1 year deals and that might signal they want to compete, but if the right deal comes along, they gotta do it.

 

I for one think Rodon is gonna be a legit ace. Carson Fulmer is a front of the rotation guy waiting in the wings. When talking about 2017, you get a whole year to see what you have in Erik Johnson. I think EJ develops into a fine back of rotation guy. At that point you're looking at Sale/Q-Rodon-Fulmer-EJ. Then you start looking at all these guys like Spencer Adams, Frank Montas, Tyler Danish, Jordan Guerrero, and I'm sure there will be other guys to step up as well. I'd bet that one of those guys turn into a solid SP. When you have one of Q or Sale with Rodon and Fulmer, they don't need to be front line type guys, they just need a solid guy to throw in there.

 

I suppose you could go the alternative route and those minor league pitchers for bat, but I don't think you get the same return.

 

I for one am growing tired of going the free agent route to build an offense. I'm fine with adding a piece to a built up young offense but relying to much on free agency isn't gonna get you anywhere.

Edited December 5, 2015 by scs787