Rasmussen released their first post-Bush poll (ignore that it's HuffPo, it's just their poll aggregator)

 

It looks like his supporters mainly split between Rubio and Kasich with some small percentage possibly going to Trump.

Trump is well ahead ahead in Nevada with over 11% counted...

 

44% to 24% for Rubio and 21% for Cruz.

 

Carson and especially Kasich buried.

 

 

 

Now all the stops come out from the Republican establishment to push Kasich (first to go) and God knows what influence they'll be able to exert over Ted Cruz, since that relationship is about as frayed as the Trump/GOP leadership "half truce" with Priebus.

 

Carson, undoubtedly, will continue to be largely ignored and push through at least into Super Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

 

Kasich didn't campaign in Nevada. His plan was always for super tuesday. It won't work but he's not dropping out either. Everyone get aboard the Trump train.

Kasich is pretty solidly behind Trump in the latest poll from Quinnapac of Ohio. If he can't even win his home state, he really should pack it in.

Still going the way I thought it would, except... slower in the trend. Trump's 25-40% (give or take depending on state) is more or less going to always be that. Around 30%, maybe 35%. So as long as Rubio and Cruz (and to a lesser extent, Kasich and Carson) stick it out, the closer we get to a place where Trump could maybe, actually win the nomination.

 

Assuming Kasich is sticking around for Super Tuesday (and lol, not winning Ohio), he'll be done right after. In a way, that helps Rubio in the long run because that's who'd he'd not only endorse, but give his delegates to, I'd guess.

 

Cruz is what throws it off. If Cruz sticks around for a long time, you go to the convention in that 3-way split. Who decides to "give"?

 

 

 

Carson voters will all go to trump. They're besties and both anti-establishment. Trump already besting cruz and Rubio combined. It's over. Cruz voters aren't going to Rubio either when he drops. Kasich staying in helps Trump, but Cruz and Carson hurt him.

Still going the way I thought it would, except... slower in the trend. Trump's 25-40% (give or take depending on state) is more or less going to always be that. Around 30%, maybe 35%. So as long as Rubio and Cruz (and to a lesser extent, Kasich and Carson) stick it out, the closer we get to a place where Trump could maybe, actually win the nomination.

 

Assuming Kasich is sticking around for Super Tuesday (and lol, not winning Ohio), he'll be done right after. In a way, that helps Rubio in the long run because that's who'd he'd not only endorse, but give his delegates to, I'd guess.

 

Cruz is what throws it off. If Cruz sticks around for a long time, you go to the convention in that 3-way split. Who decides to "give"?

It would appear that Trump has gotten some additional support. He was up to pretty close to 50% and there is the old addage that people support winners. If the rest of the field doesn't widdle quick, it will be hard to stop the Trump momentum, imo.

It would appear that Trump has gotten some additional support. He was up to pretty close to 50% and there is the old addage that people support winners. If the rest of the field doesn't widdle quick, it will be hard to stop the Trump momentum, imo.

 

IF Trump is ultimately the nominee, I'm curious as to what moderate Republicans will do at the polls. I don't expect that there would be a lot of crossover to the D side (whether Clinton or Sanders). Will they vote 3rd party, stay home, or hold their nose and vote Trump?

Trump is moderate on a lot of issues so they are not the problem. The problem is making sure the hard right gives him support as they are the base.

 

Republicans ultimately show up to vote no matter, so I don't think it'll be a big deal.

Trump is moderate on a lot of issues so they are not the problem. The problem is making sure the hard right gives him support as they are the base.

 

Republicans ultimately show up to vote no matter, so I don't think it'll be a big deal.

 

Agreed. I think the question is, of those X million undecideds, how many are scared away from Trump and run to Hillary, how many despise both Trump and Hillary and decide to stay home, or how many join the bandwagon?

 

Trump, IMO, has a shot against Hillary because Dems just don't get motivated to vote for candidates that they don't really care for. The young, for example, want Bernie. Are they going to show up to vote for Hillary? Are women voters?

 

I'm hoping for a Trump v. Sanders election. God, think of the comedy that campaign would produce.

Trump is moderate on a lot of issues so they are not the problem. The problem is making sure the hard right gives him support as they are the base.

 

Republicans ultimately show up to vote no matter, so I don't think it'll be a big deal.

 

Trump may historically be moderate on a lot of issues. He certainly hasn't campaigned on that. The only "moderate" moment I can think of from him in this campaign cycle was in the debate in SC when he put the Iraq blame on GWB.

 

What am I missing here?

IF Trump is ultimately the nominee, I'm curious as to what moderate Republicans will do at the polls. I don't expect that there would be a lot of crossover to the D side (whether Clinton or Sanders). Will they vote 3rd party, stay home, or hold their nose and vote Trump?

I heard a couple people on CNN yesterday say that they actually think some of Bernie's supporters will turn Trump's way. The anti-establishment types. No idea what will happen, but when you get through a lot of the BS, Trump does have certain positions which are more moderate / liberal (such as the fact that he has indicated healthcare shouldn't be a right).

I heard a couple people on CNN yesterday say that they actually think some of Bernie's supporters will turn Trump's way. The anti-establishment types. No idea what will happen, but when you get through a lot of the BS, Trump does have certain positions which are more moderate / liberal (such as the fact that he has indicated healthcare shouldn't be a right).

 

The problem is that if you go back far enough, he has taken on just about every position possible. He was a Clinton supporter until Obama was elected President. Dude has had more flip flops than Daytona Beach.

Trump may historically be moderate on a lot of issues. He certainly hasn't campaigned on that. The only "moderate" moment I can think of from him in this campaign cycle was in the debate in SC when he put the Iraq blame on GWB.

 

What am I missing here?

Not part of his strategy yet. He hasn't moved to the middle because he hasn't had to and it wouldn't be the right time for him to. He is more moderate on aspects of social security and health care. No one really knows yet where Trump is (outside of his build the wall and fair trade rhetoric), other than he uses everything he can to beat up everyone else.

He's running on a campaign of white nationalist populism so far. You can't really "moderate" on that.

Look, I've done nothing but rip on Trump. Two days ago I watched him on TV and it was the first time where for 30 straight minutes I didn't roll my eyes once. If he dominates super tuesday, I think everyone is going to see a pivot in Trump. We (and I've done nothing but rip him so I'm included in the "we") might have all underestimated him.

 

Personally, I'm hoping Cruz bombs out and that it happens fast. Longer everyone stays in, more likely Trump just keeps winning state after state, which will ultimately secure his place as the republican nominee.

Trump may historically be moderate on a lot of issues. He certainly hasn't campaigned on that. The only "moderate" moment I can think of from him in this campaign cycle was in the debate in SC when he put the Iraq blame on GWB.

 

What am I missing here?

 

The only thing that he's really far right on is immigration reform. Other than that I think he leans moderate right to outright left. The immigration plans with him what grab the headlines, and he doesn't want to stop that

 

He seems pro-campaign finance reform or at least mentions routinely how broken the system is. I'm not even sure where to put that on the political spectrum anymore since everyone is bought and paid for. You'd think that'd have a big appeal to Bernie supporters if he doesn't win.

 

He wants to stay out of Syria and the middle East on the whole.

 

He's with Obama on ending the Cuba embargo.

 

For medical MJ.

 

For minimum wage reform.

 

I've heard him talk positively about unions but not sure where he really stands there. Either way feel like he's more pro than your average Republican.

 

Wants to tax wall-street.

 

He's made it a priority in his campaign to talk about womens wage issues.

 

I don't think a "normal" Republican candidate could ever get away with a lot of these issues.

Edited February 24, 201610 yr by Buehrle>Wood

Look, I've done nothing but rip on Trump. Two days ago I watched him on TV and it was the first time where for 30 straight minutes I didn't roll my eyes once. If he dominates super tuesday, I think everyone is going to see a pivot in Trump. We (and I've done nothing but rip him so I'm included in the "we") might have all underestimated him.

 

Personally, I'm hoping Cruz bombs out and that it happens fast. Longer everyone stays in, more likely Trump just keeps winning state after state, which will ultimately secure his place as the republican nominee.

I've heard him in 5-10 minuet snippets over the last couple of weeks. It's always just been some sort of a stream-of-consciousness rant that makes no sense.

 

I'm not underestimating his political chances especially for the nomination, but I really don't see how he can keep being Trump while trying to moderate his message. His popularity is based on his radical reactionary messaging.

I wonder what would happen if the rumors came true and he named Jim Webb as his running mate. Hurt more than it could help?

I can't imagine anyone would care, the biggest response would be "who?"

I wonder what would happen if the rumors came true and he named Jim Webb as his running mate. Hurt more than it could help?

 

Hurt. I think the number of far right voters who stay home/vote for a 3rd party >> the number of moderate/independent voters who pick Trump over Hillary due to a Democratic running mate.

 

 

I guess my question would be: do VP picks ever really help? A poor pick can definitely hurt, but I don't know how many people would be swayed to vote for someone because of their VP.

He wants to stay out of Syria and the middle East on the whole.

 

As recently as November, Trump was saying that he was going to bomb the crap out of ISIS and put troops on the ground in Syria.

 

I'm just saying...

Carson voters will all go to trump. They're besties and both anti-establishment. Trump already besting cruz and Rubio combined. It's over. Cruz voters aren't going to Rubio either when he drops. Kasich staying in helps Trump, but Cruz and Carson hurt him.

 

True on first sentence, mostly at least. The idea that "it's over" though is uninformed based on history and math. Not even Super Tuesday yet. Far, far from over.

 

Trump is moderate on a lot of issues so they are not the problem. The problem is making sure the hard right gives him support as they are the base.

 

Republicans ultimately show up to vote no matter, so I don't think it'll be a big deal.

 

First sentence ignores reality about why people vote for a certain candidate. The reason people have historically high numbers of "anyone but this candidate" against Trump isn't policy points, since as you said he's relatively moderate on the whole compared to the rest of the GOP field. It's that he's a crass, racist asshole. Moderates will see that the same way anyone does who isn't a deep-cut conservative that will vote GOP no matter what. I'd still be against Trump winning the nomination, though it is becoming more and more possible. But I'd bet the farm he'll get trounced by Hillary if he goes to the general.

 

Hard-right will show up for him because, as you state, they always do. Moderates on the whole certainly will not.

 

 

True on first sentence, mostly at least. The idea that "it's over" though is uninformed based on history and math. Not even Super Tuesday yet. Far, far from over.

 

 

 

First sentence ignores reality about why people vote for a certain candidate. The reason people have historically high numbers of "anyone but this candidate" against Trump isn't policy points, since as you said he's relatively moderate on the whole compared to the rest of the GOP field. It's that he's a crass, racist asshole. Moderates will see that the same way anyone does who isn't a deep-cut conservative that will vote GOP no matter what. I'd still be against Trump winning the nomination, though it is becoming more and more possible. But I'd bet the farm he'll get trounced by Hillary if he goes to the general.

 

Hard-right will show up for him because, as you state, they always do. Moderates on the whole certainly will not.

Technically, if you based it on history, no person who has won 3 of the first four primaries has not won the nomination, so if you want to go by history, it is over. Also, I just don't know whether Trump is truly racist. He makes a ton of claims, points, but than he goes out and wins the Hispanic vote in Nevada and I don't think, given the size of his company, etc, he has been anti diversity from a business perspective. While he has made some statements on the middle east and the border, the reality is, his actual record would point to him being an equal opportunity employer, etc, and a huge proponent of women rights (despite making lots of absurd comments, his actions from a hiring standpoint would point to him being proactive in giving them promotions, etc).

 

The more I've dug into Trump and the more he is picking up momentum, the more I've realized he is far more moderate than anyone gives him credit for. The ahole part is totally on-point, but now he is starting to even get educated people behind him. He pretty much utterly dominated in Nevada (all categories). Another big factor is thus far, republican turn out has been very strong (which would bode well for a national election, regardless of who the candidate ultimately ends up being).