So far we have the following. There is a 17 game spread between the highest and lowest totals, and the Sox are picked between 1st and last place.

 

90-72 1st place- USA Today

82-80 2nd place BP

81-81 tied 2nd Fangraphs

4th place, Athlon sports

73-89 5th place, Bleacher report.

80.5 wins 4th place Atlantis Casino

So far we have the following. There is a 17 game spread between the highest and lowest totals, and the Sox are picked between 1st and last place.

 

90-72 1st place- USA Today

82-80 2nd place BP

81-81 tied 2nd Fangraphs

4th place, Athlon sports

73-89 5th place, Bleacher report.

80.5 wins 4th place Atlantis Casino

 

Only way we lose 89 games is if one of the big guys goes down to injury. I think 80-85 is where we will finish up.

That Bleacher Report prediction is pretty obnoxious.

 

The Sox went 76-86 last year.

 

Their Pythagorean W/L was 72-90.

 

They are replacing a pretty poor Samardzija with Latos (probably a plus move)

 

Replaced Gillaspie/Saladino/Olt with Todd Frazier (a huge plus)

 

Replaced Sanchez with Lawrie (a fairly substantial plus)

 

Replaced Flowers/Soto with Navarro/Avila (a plus)

 

Replaced Ramirez with Saladino (jury's out but should be a plus)

 

Should see advancements made by Rodon and hopefully Avi

 

All that and they see they as regressing by 3 wins or progressing by just 1 win using the Pythagorean record? Give me a break.

They are replacing a pretty poor Samardzija with Latos (probably a plus move)

Da f***?

 

"One of these pitchers got $90 million guaranteed. One of these pitchers got $3 million guaranteed. Why on Earth would a national publication writing the supposed conventional wisdom think that swap is a downgrade???"

 

GMAB. Yes, Latos could darn well be an upgrade over Samardzija, but the league just made an $87 million bet that he won't be. These predictions are based on that kind of conventional wisdom.

That Bleacher Report prediction is pretty obnoxious.

 

The Sox went 76-86 last year.

 

Their Pythagorean W/L was 72-90.

 

They are replacing a pretty poor Samardzija with Latos (probably a plus move)

 

Replaced Gillaspie/Saladino/Olt with Todd Frazier (a huge plus)

 

Replaced Sanchez with Lawrie (a fairly substantial plus)

 

Replaced Flowers/Soto with Navarro/Avila (a plus)

 

Replaced Ramirez with Saladino (jury's out but should be a plus)

 

Should see advancements made by Rodon and hopefully Avi

 

All that and they see they as regressing by 3 wins or progressing by just 1 win using the Pythagorean record? Give me a break.

 

Bleacher Report isn't exactly a hub of intellectual sports thought

That Bleacher Report prediction is pretty obnoxious.

 

The Sox went 76-86 last year.

 

Their Pythagorean W/L was 72-90.

 

They are replacing a pretty poor Samardzija with Latos (probably a plus move)

 

Replaced Gillaspie/Saladino/Olt with Todd Frazier (a huge plus)

 

Replaced Sanchez with Lawrie (a fairly substantial plus)

 

Replaced Flowers/Soto with Navarro/Avila (a plus)

 

Replaced Ramirez with Saladino (jury's out but should be a plus)

 

Should see advancements made by Rodon and hopefully Avi

 

All that and they see they as regressing by 3 wins or progressing by just 1 win using the Pythagorean record? Give me a break.

 

nice write up, no offense, i may not agree with all, but still really nice write up.

 

this is a great idea this topic.

Da f***?

 

"One of these pitchers got $90 million guaranteed. One of these pitchers got $3 million guaranteed. Why on Earth would a national publication writing the supposed conventional wisdom think that swap is a downgrade???"

 

GMAB. Yes, Latos could darn well be an upgrade over Samardzija, but the league just made an $87 million bet that he won't be. These predictions are based on that kind of conventional wisdom.

We're not talking about 2016 Latos vs. 2016 Samardzija. We're talking about 2016 Latos vs. 2015 Samardzija. It shouldn't be too difficult to outperform a 4.96 ERA, although I don't expect Latos to pitch 214 innings, so he'd have to do more than just beat Samardzija's ERA. Samardzija didn't get $90 million based on his 2015 season, so that should be irrelevant.

Da f***?

 

"One of these pitchers got $90 million guaranteed. One of these pitchers got $3 million guaranteed. Why on Earth would a national publication writing the supposed conventional wisdom think that swap is a downgrade???"

 

GMAB. Yes, Latos could darn well be an upgrade over Samardzija, but the league just made an $87 million bet that he won't be. These predictions are based on that kind of conventional wisdom.

 

I stated that the 2016 Latos would probably be better than the 2015 Samardzija. What's wrong with that. It isn't a stretch at all. Latos had a half run better FIP than Samardzija last year. He may not be able to hit 200 innings but if there is one team in baseball that will give him the chance to stay healthy all year it's the Sox.

Da f***?

 

"One of these pitchers got $90 million guaranteed. One of these pitchers got $3 million guaranteed. Why on Earth would a national publication writing the supposed conventional wisdom think that swap is a downgrade???"

 

GMAB. Yes, Latos could darn well be an upgrade over Samardzija, but the league just made an $87 million bet that he won't be. These predictions are based on that kind of conventional wisdom.

 

Isn't Rodon technically replace shark and Latos replacing noesi from last opening day.

Isn't Rodon technically replace shark and Latos replacing noesi from last opening day.

 

Very good way of looking at it. In that regard, the Sox pitching staff is even better than last year's by a wide margin on paper.

So far we have the following. There is a 17 game spread between the highest and lowest totals, and the Sox are picked between 1st and last place.

 

90-72 1st place- USA Today

82-80 2nd place BP

81-81 tied 2nd Fangraphs

4th place, Athlon sports

73-89 5th place, Bleacher report.

80.5 wins 4th place Atlantis Casino

 

It's settled then. Sox are guaranteed to finish 3rd.

Very good way of looking at it. In that regard, the Sox pitching staff is even better than last year's by a wide margin on paper.

 

 

There's a good chance that the Sox have the best rotation in the AL. Cleveland was #1 in fWAR last year and Sox were 2nd. Samardzija's 216 innings and K's did help though.

There's a good chance that the Sox have the best rotation in the AL. Cleveland was #1 in fWAR last year and Sox were 2nd. Samardzija's 216 innings and K's did help though.

 

No doubt. Overall, I think their rotation will end up being on par if not a bit better than last year. Will be interesting to see if the pen stays more consistent & if the hitting comes through the way some are hoping.

Only way we lose 89 games is if one of the big guys goes down to injury. I think 80-85 is where we will finish up.

 

I think you can throw out the 73 and 90 win predictions as ones that would take a couple standard deviations of "luck" to happen. Even the 76 win team we just had contained some terrible years by guys who usually weren't terrible. Adding Frazier, Lawrie, and the new catching duo to this mix should really pick up three of the worst positions on the field. I think the low to mid 80's is a good baseline for win prediction. Right now I would say 84 or 85 sounds right to me.

There's a good chance that the Sox have the best rotation in the AL. Cleveland was #1 in fWAR last year and Sox were 2nd. Samardzija's 216 innings and K's did help though.

Sox SP were #1 in the AL by fWAR last year at 17.4, the Indians were third with 15.9. But yes, Samardzija made up 2.7 of that number.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

I think you can throw out the 73 and 90 win predictions as ones that would take a couple standard deviations of "luck" to happen. Even the 76 win team we just had contained some terrible years by guys who usually weren't terrible. Adding Frazier, Lawrie, and the new catching duo to this mix should really pick up three of the worst positions on the field. I think the low to mid 80's is a good baseline for win prediction. Right now I would say 84 or 85 sounds right to me.

When you look at the current situation this way, where you are just bumping up against a possible postseason appearance but also maybe just coming up a bit short, it almost seems worth it to give up the draft pick and just go and get Fowler and replace Garcia with him. Could literally mean the difference between making the playoffs and not.

When you look at the current situation this way, where you are just bumping up against a possible postseason appearance but also maybe just coming up a bit short, it almost seems worth it to give up the draft pick and just go and get Fowler and replace Garcia with him. Could literally mean the difference between making the playoffs and not.

 

I've been trying to say this same thing. They are more than likely a fringe team right now. Adding a guy like Fowler or Desmond greatly improves your chances, especially in this certain scenario.

Sox 17th in Jonah Keri's power rankings, immediately behind Detroit and Cleveland. Twins 22, Royals 10.

 

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/18/the-30-pr...-power-rankings