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poppysox

Madrigal Wins Gold Glove

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2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It's fairly well known in saber studies.  The 3rd spot is massively over rated.  You should probably put your 3rd worst hitter there or even 2nd worst.  The key is to not have a lot of automatic outs in a row.  Most teams put 7,8,9 as their worst and not only is that like giving the pitcher a free inning it also rarely sets the table for you best hitters, which should be usually 1,2,4,5,6.

What???

You should bat your second worst hitter in a position that has the third most at bats? That's absurd. 

Your best hitter should likely hit 2nd. 

No one argues that a bad hitter should be hitting 3rd. They just argue that 2nd and 4th have more value. Some argue 5th over 3rd too but theres really not much difference between the two and id give more at bats over more opportunities with runners on base.

 

 

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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Due to so many variables regarding lineup optimization, I want to emphasize that there is no universal answer and that using an entire data set to make a decision for 9 unique data points (a team) is actually lazy math. 

I would go something like:

Madrigal

Moncada

Robert

Eloy

Abreu 

 

1-5 

If they sign JDM I'd shift everyone back after Robert. For Robert's rookie year move everyone up and slide him into 6th or 5th depending. 

 

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2 hours ago, ScooterMcGee said:

As it stands now, it's not strong 1-9. They still need to find a DH and a RF, and who knows how Robert will fare when he arrives. He could struggle out of the gate. Same with Madrigal.

We can assume a RF and DH of good quality.  Those needs are obvious to everyone including RH.  Of course Robert and Madrigal can struggle for a bit but I doubt any of us think they will anything other than very good.  Good lineups make it easier on everyone since nobody feels they have to do it all themselves.  My one and only concern is finding the two quality starters.  Our other need of a reliever or two shouldn't be hard to find.  The big question is who are the starters?  Cole and Strasburg would obviously leave less money available for those DH and RF acquisitions. 

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2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Due to so many variables regarding lineup optimization, I want to emphasize that there is no universal answer and that using an entire data set to make a decision for 9 unique data points (a team) is actually lazy math. 

I would go something like:

Madrigal

Moncada

Robert

Eloy

Abreu 

 

1-5 

If they sign JDM I'd shift everyone back after Robert. For Robert's rookie year move everyone up and slide him into 6th or 5th depending. 

 

Assuming above average RF and DH,,,I find it interesting how low in the batting order most of us put the reigning AL batting champ.

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3 hours ago, joesaiditstrue said:

what does he profile out to be, something like a chone figgins minus the switch hitting?

Ichiro with 30+ HR power. 

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8 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Assuming above average RF and DH,,,I find it interesting how low in the batting order most of us put the reigning AL batting champ.

Timmy would hit 6th for me. Ideal hitter in that spot of the lineup.

I'd likely hit madrigal towards the bottom of the lineup next year and timmy leads off as an FYI.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Timmy would hit 6th for me. Ideal hitter in that spot of the lineup.

I'd likely hit madrigal towards the bottom of the lineup next year and timmy leads off as an FYI.

I would agree with Tim batting sixth in the order as of right now. I think there’s more power in him to be untapped. 

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3 hours ago, Joshua Strong said:

I would agree with Tim batting sixth in the order as of right now. I think there’s more power in him to be untapped. 

I think he will be in the 7 spot if we get JDM or legit DH and a power hitting RF which is a good problem to have.  Tim is a ~25 HR guy that relied heavily on his hit tool this year.  The problem with him if you want it call it that, is he is not a .335 hitter.  He walked 15x all year in 500+ PAs to slash 335/357/508.  He has a hyper aggressive approach that makes him look silly at the plate at times because he swings at everything.  I know some on here are going to look at this like I'm talking shit about Tim but I'm not.  He has to refine his approach and take his walks when they are available because what he did this year is not anywhere close to sustainable.  I didn't look at his BABIP but I'm sure it's also extremely high. It was great to see him break out with his bat but he isn't a .300 hitter, IMO.

He has the ability to be a 5.5-6 WAR player if he can get on base more and fix his defense.  I also think he has more power potential but that approach has to be tweeked before he can tap into it.  I love Tim and I think he's a great player but he can be a lot better going forward. 

Edit:  Yeah is BABIP was .399. with a ~.360 wOBA.

Edited by BackDoorBreach

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6 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I think he will be in the 7 spot if we get JDM or legit DH and a power hitting RF which is a good problem to have.  Tim is a ~25 HR guy that relied heavily on his hit tool this year.  The problem with him if you want it call it that, is he is not a .335 hitter.  He walked 15x all year in 500+ PAs to slash 335/357/508.  He has a hyper aggressive approach that makes him look silly at the plate at times because he swings at everything.  I know some on here are going to look at this like I'm talking shit about Tim but I'm not.  He has to refine his approach and take his walks when they are available because what he did this year is not anywhere close to sustainable.  I didn't look at his BABIP but I'm sure it's also extremely high. It was great to see him break out with his bat but he isn't a .300 hitter, IMO.

He has the ability to be a 5.5-6 WAR player if he can get on base more and fix his defense.  I also think he has more power potential but that approach has to be tweeked before he can tap into it.  I love Tim and I think he's a great player but he can be a lot better going forward. 

Edit:  Yeah is BABIP was .399. with a ~.360 wOBA.

Hes not a .335 hitter but he just hit .335. Interesting.

Maybe he's not projected to be one next year but he's certainly a .335 hitter since that's exactly what he hit.

Then you go on to say he's not a .300 hitter. Uh, ok pal. Interesting take. Guy who hits 335 isnt a 300 hitter.

There are many ways to skin a cat - trying to take away his aggression is changing who he is as a hitter. Youd have traded javy baez too. 

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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18 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It's fairly well known in saber studies.  The 3rd spot is massively over rated.  You should probably put your 3rd worst hitter there or even 2nd worst.  The key is to not have a lot of automatic outs in a row.  Most teams put 7,8,9 as their worst and not only is that like giving the pitcher a free inning it also rarely sets the table for you best hitters, which should be usually 1,2,4,5,6.

Maybe I'm old school, but I still follow the lineup construction that was the norm when I was a kid in the 1990s.

Leadoff: Your speedster. If he has power, that's a bonus, but if he has tons of power, bat him somewhere else. This guy gets on base and steals more. Scott Podsednik of 2005, Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre, but probably best of all, Ray Durham. .360+ OBP from 1998-2000 = perfect. Some people like this Acuna/Robert idea. Why would you guarantee that an incredible power hitter comes up with nobody on as many as 162 times in a season? Bat them lower.

2-hole: Best OBP guy. Probably hits left handed, can bunt, pull off hit-and-runs, perhaps some speed but not absolutely necessary. Ideal would be 2000 Jason Kendall or Yoan Moncada. Between this guy and your leadoff guy, the point is to have your three-hole up with RISP as often as possible.

3-hole: This is your best overall hitter. Frank Thomas of the 1990s. Ken Griffey. Ted Williams. Roid-raging Barry Bonds. This "3rd worst hitter" idea is nuts. You want your best hitters to get on base and then let them be driven in by...Yolmer Sanchez?

4-hole: Your best raw power hitter. Adam Dunn, pre-White Sox. Prince Fielder, or better yet, his dad. Average might not be great, but he'll hit a ton of bombs.

5-hole: Your second best raw power hitter.

6-9: Everybody else, in order of decreasing ability. Ninth batter can be your second best leadoff hitter. So if you have Scotty Pods and Ray Durham, let Ray lead off and Pods hit ninth. On shitty teams like ours, this section IS indeed a free inning because we have so much garbage. On a good team like the Astros, it's not because you've still got hitters like Gurriel, Chirinos, and Reddick coming to bat.

Ideally, I think our 2021 lineup looks like this:

Madrigal

Moncada

Robert

Jimenez

Vaughn

Abreu

Anderson

Collins

Walker 

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Arguing about lineup construction remains the most annoying part about baseball analysis. 

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1 hour ago, The Sir said:

2-hole: Best OBP guy. Probably hits left handed, can bunt, pull off hit-and-runs, perhaps some speed but not absolutely necessary. Ideal would be 2000 Jason Kendall or Yoan Moncada.

Umm...

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3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Hes not a .335 hitter but he just hit .335. Interesting.

Maybe he's not projected to be one next year but he's certainly a .335 hitter since that's exactly what he hit.

Then you go on to say he's not a .300 hitter. Uh, ok pal. Interesting take. Guy who hits 335 isnt a 300 hitter.

There are many ways to skin a cat - trying to take away his aggression is changing who he is as a hitter. Youd have traded javy baez too. 

I said it's not sustainable or did you not read that part before going on your usual passive aggressive posting?  He had a great career year but if you quoted me to argue  about semantics than you are wasting your time.  He's a career .276 hitter.

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3 hours ago, The Sir said:

Maybe I'm old school, but I still follow the lineup construction that was the norm when I was a kid in the 1990s.

Leadoff: Your speedster. If he has power, that's a bonus, but if he has tons of power, bat him somewhere else. This guy gets on base and steals more. Scott Podsednik of 2005, Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre, but probably best of all, Ray Durham. .360+ OBP from 1998-2000 = perfect. Some people like this Acuna/Robert idea. Why would you guarantee that an incredible power hitter comes up with nobody on as many as 162 times in a season? Bat them lower.

2-hole: Best OBP guy. Probably hits left handed, can bunt, pull off hit-and-runs, perhaps some speed but not absolutely necessary. Ideal would be 2000 Jason Kendall or Yoan Moncada. Between this guy and your leadoff guy, the point is to have your three-hole up with RISP as often as possible.

3-hole: This is your best overall hitter. Frank Thomas of the 1990s. Ken Griffey. Ted Williams. Roid-raging Barry Bonds. This "3rd worst hitter" idea is nuts. You want your best hitters to get on base and then let them be driven in by...Yolmer Sanchez?

4-hole: Your best raw power hitter. Adam Dunn, pre-White Sox. Prince Fielder, or better yet, his dad. Average might not be great, but he'll hit a ton of bombs.

5-hole: Your second best raw power hitter.

6-9: Everybody else, in order of decreasing ability. Ninth batter can be your second best leadoff hitter. So if you have Scotty Pods and Ray Durham, let Ray lead off and Pods hit ninth. On shitty teams like ours, this section IS indeed a free inning because we have so much garbage. On a good team like the Astros, it's not because you've still got hitters like Gurriel, Chirinos, and Reddick coming to bat.

Ideally, I think our 2021 lineup looks like this:

Madrigal

Moncada

Robert

Jimenez

Vaughn

Abreu

Anderson

Collins

Walker 

Great job of explaining how we old guys think.

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47 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I said it's not sustainable or did you not read that part before going on your usual passive aggressive posting?  He had a great career year but if you quoted me to argue  about semantics than you are wasting your time.  He's a career .276 hitter.

So... what have you calculated to be a sustainable BABIP for TA?

The new baseball very clearly spiked BABIP'S - last year had like 5 of the highest in league history. What do you project his BABIP to be next year and where would that put him at average wise?

I think his skill set is very well suited to be a 300ish hitter going forward until his hands slow down.

Was there some luck in his outcomes last year? Probably to an extent. Is using data from an older baseball to normalize his BABIP a good idea? Probably not.

Do you think .276 would be a good barometer for TA's BA O/U (over/under) next year? I know if the number was set a .276 I'd be investing in a max wager (probably low limits of about $500) at multiple shops on the over.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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3 hours ago, SoxAce said:

Umm...

In time that might be Madrigal.  Doesn't hit left handed but takes pitches for the man on base...hits behind the runner...doesn't strike out...can hit and run...can bunt.  Seems like a right handed Nellie Fox.

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