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South Side Hit Men

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Everything posted by South Side Hit Men

  1. Balta and you are correct, sir(s). Detroit Tigers pitcher Doyle Alexander hangs his head after giving up a home run in 1987. The trade in which the Tigers acquired him has become notorious, and he has unwittingly given his name to a new trade metric. 2015: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/did-your-team-blow-it-at-the-trade-deadline/ Five months later, they traded Montas for Todd Frazier. Six months after that, traded Tatis Jr. for Shields. Cell Jerry, always Cell Jerry and Eddie are back after getting $250K savings by trading International Bonus Money slots. Jerry misses the good old days and wants that option restored.
  2. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mlbs-expanded-postseason-changed-the-trade-deadline-and-maybe-not-for-the-better/ This model dictates the Brewers are a coin flip (buy or stand pat), Padres and Rays are better stand pat candidates, Sox in the leaning seller category. All In (5): Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Atlanta & Mets. Slight buyers to stand pat (6): Blue Jays, Brewers, Padres, Rays, Twins & Mariners. Lean Sell to Sell (6): Phillies, Cardinals, White Sox, Guardians, Red Sox & Giants. Fire Sale (13): The Usual Suspects How our Doyle Number metric views the 2022 trade deadline Postseason odds (according to the FiveThirtyEight prediction model) and Doyle Numbers* for 2022 MLB buyers and sellers TEAM PO% WS% DOYLE TEAM PO% WS% DOYLE Dodgers >99% 26% 2.13 Red Sox 22% 1% 0.31 Yankees >99 21 2.04 Giants 22 1 0.22 Astros >99 13 1.84 Orioles 8 <1 0.10 Braves 98 9 1.70 Marlins 3 <1 0.06 Mets 99 8 1.66 D-backs 1 <1 0.01 Blue Jays 89 5 1.30 Rangers 1 <1 0.01 Brewers 83 3 1.02 Rockies <1 <1 0.01 Padres 83 2 0.90 Angels 1 <1 0.01 Rays 55 2 0.75 Cubs 1 <1 0.00 Twins 60 2 0.71 Reds <1 <1 0.00 Mariners 68 1 0.67 Tigers <1 <1 0.00 Phillies 54 2 0.57 Royals <1 <1 0.00 Cardinals 56 1 0.45 Pirates <1 <1 0.00 White Sox 61 2 0.44 Athletics <1 <1 0.00 Guardians 35 1 0.32 Nationals <1 <1 0.00 *The Doyle Number represents how many wins of future talent a team should trade away now for one extra win of talent in 2022. PO% refers to a team’s odds of making the playoffs; WS% refers to odds to win the World Series. Playoff and World Series odds are as of July 27.
  3. Not even sure he'd be an upgrade defensively over Sheets/Vaughn. .243 2021 World Series OPS. Woof
  4. Sounds about right for Naquin. Reds just want to dump salary. Eat Moustakas' deal and they'll give you Castillo and throw in prospects for a box of Tony's diapers. People here are WAY overestimating what it takes to land a 2 month veteran rental, unless they are factoring Hahn's ineptitude and inevitable urge to overpay.
  5. Can you imagine. Tony gets extended eight more years through 2040, the three former Cardinals through 2030. Statues and numbers retired for #4, #5 and #50, Sox unretiring Luke Appling's number and bulldozing his statue to accommodate. Replacing Katz with Dave Duncan's four year old great great grandson to "keep the line moving" as Ed would say. Side Note: Didn't realize the Cardinals retired Tony La Russa's number. Then again, he actually won a post season series in Saint Louis. That better not happen here (the number part).
  6. I'm just hoping to avoid a Vaughn, Colas and Vera trade for Molina, Wainwright and Pujols.
  7. Jerry's goal is maximizing capital gains, not maximizing on field wins. Sure he'll cherish Konerko's ball, but he'll never love any player more than Adam La Roche who handed him $13M free of charge.
  8. Wait til next year.
  9. Add relegation to demote tanking teams the following season and you have yourself the first and only legitimate North American Professional Sports League. A Premier League, if you will. Twenty or so teams actually trying to win a championship. Hard to fathom for the typical American fan and socialist/parasitic billionaire team owner.
  10. Active Hurt / Not Fully Healthy Eloy is still hurt. Joe Kelly is hurt, though Tony is going La La La La La La La La and pretending he is not. Grandal doesn't appear to be able to catch more than once a series. Ditto Engel (healthy/good enough to go once a series) Hopeful Harrison is fine after 3 of 4 days rest. Liam is OK now that he has returned to sea level. Tim has recovered from All Star Game Jet Lag. Still on the IL: Bummer, Burger, Crick, Lopez, Robert, Velasquez Still Dead: Crochet, Mendick, Neidermeyer, Stiever
  11. I'll wait for independent sources beyond Jerry paid media hacks plus his pal Bob.
  12. They shouldn't start Colas' clock until Tony is gone. Tony won't play him more than once a week, prefers his rotation of Sheets, Vaughn and Engel in RF.
  13. It's was historically a two team race (best of 10/12 in each league). With expansion to 24 / 26 teams, the Division Era made sense. Now they are handing out 2-3 "wild cards" in a five team division. Made the season a glorified exhibition consistent with the other three garbage sports. Don't plan on watching the 12 team playoffs even if the Sox make it (not that I could beyond going to a bar, as it's been pulled off the air like the regular season). It's my final season following baseball daily (dropping out of Rotisserie after this season). At least the World Series is on Fox for the 2-3% of America who still watches it, down from 33%.
  14. Didn't expect your article (Sox are 20th in Bullpen), as it's the one area they are strong in terms of fWAR across their bullpen. Team Batting: 19th Team Fielding: 28th Team Pitching: 14th Team Starting Pitching: 14th Team Relief Pitching: 9th
  15. In the Hahn era, the best July trade was getting Frankie Montas and Avisail Garcia for Jake Peavy in 2013, though that worked out in the future. The best "win now" July trade under 9 years of Hahn was getting Ryan Tepera for Bailey Horn. Everything else was inconsequential, with a few stinkers last year.
  16. Hahn could have cut bait with a $1M buyout, but his enormous ego wouldn't let him. Had to try to salvage something, anything, for giving up Heuer who was much better than Kimbrel to finish the year and still under control for years once he returns from surgery, and their wasted Top First Round pick. There was no trade market beyond LA for Kimbrel, none. Few teams were spending that money on a closer, all already were set except LA.
  17. Vaughn is the DH 4-5 games a week, Grandal 1-2 (and catches 1-2). Pollock is on the pine until Eloy goes on the IL again.
  18. What about Lynn, who is behind Lucas over 1 and 2 seasons and getting paid 2 1/2 times more for 8 games?
  19. Really don't understand this. Top White Sox Pitchers by fWAR 2019-2022: 1. Giolito 11.9 2020-2022: 1. Cease 7.2; 2. Giolito 6.9 2021-2022: 1. Cease 7.5; 3. Rodon 4.9; 3. Giolito 4.7 2022: 1. Cease 3.2; 2. R. Lopez 1.5; 3. Cueto & Kopech 0.9; 5. Giolito & Hendriks 0.7 Good teammate. Answers the bell. Most fans like him. Actually gives a shit. Brought in Katz who made Cease, Rodon and Lopez better.
  20. The conversation is hashed out before he goes on air. Nobody is going to ambush Stone, or get an answer from him if they do. ESPN local tried that once with Reinsdorf, he said "You're never going to get a bite out of this apple again." and pulled the Bulls off of the station.
  21. I really hope Toronto is eliminated from making the playoffs. They got several wins due to the restrictions and playing AAA teams.
  22. Yankees have no leverage at this point, as everyone (well, hopefully that includes Hahn) knows the Yankees have no room on their roster for Gallo after acquiring Benintendi. Should be happy clearing his salary at this point and using it to add a reliever or starter.
  23. Hell, I wonder what they could get for Cueto, Graveman, others. If the Sox are 4-5 back entering August, I wouldn't have a problem with them selling if they could get solid pieces back.
  24. Agreed, but among the guys who are realistically available, there are question marks. I was laying out the worst case scenario (doesn't improve leaving NY). Think there is solid upside based on his splits, the fact he isn't injured, and the fact he has a solid record outside of this season and is still somewhat young (28). Naquin doesn't have upside, Reynolds and Soto are beyond the Sox ability to acquire. Happ in CF and Robert to RF would work defensively, but don't see Tony or Hahn having the balls to move Robert, even though he has had issues in CF since 2020. Also like moving Robert as far away from Eloy as possible to protect his bat.
  25. People looking at Oakland as being a soft opponent because of their 29th best record (Washington 30th) should be aware the A's are coming off of a sweep of Houston, the first team able to sweep the Astros this season. Hopefully the Sox are bringing their A Game, and Robert can return over the next several days. The smaller OF to cover will certainly help until he is able to return.

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