South Side Hit Men

Analysis of data separates the haves from the have nots. It’s why teams like Tampa and Oakland continue to outperform their payroll, and teams like the Dodgers target 100 + wins after Andrew Friedman’s hire.

Child, please. The Sox external free agent acquisitions have been garbage throughout Hahn’s entire tenure. Overpriced and underperforming, with his fanbois continuously posting how much they feel sorry for him. Smart teams with competent front offices like Tampa own the Sox with half the payroll. They’re not wasting money two managers, overpaying for clubhouse cancers, signing lengthy contracts for declining players no other team would even consider. They’re signing quality players at good rates with plenty of upside.

My comment was more related to Rich Hill at $2.5M. Send him through the lineup twice, hand things over to Crochet for his 2-3 innings of work for a nice contrast, could be the best "fifth starter" combo in MLB. Would also be an asset with the younger pitchers. Much rather have Hill & Dunning than paying top dollar for a year of Lynn. If only Hill had a TLDR connection. Sighs.

Fangraphs projected Arrieta at $9M and a 2021 fWAR of 0.9. Rich Hill (Projected 1.0 fWAR and $8M) signed by Tampa in a steal at $2.5M. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/rays-rich-hill-progressing-toward-deal.html Rather win in October than "win" in December.

Came across this 2017 article you may find interesting, regarding Collins' relationship with Grandal which started several years ago. Collins will have to come out strong this Spring in likely his final chance to prove he can be at minimum an adequate backup at the ML level. https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/chicago-white-sox/zack-collins-has-been-training-yasmani-grandal-high-school-and-its-paying-white-sox-prospect

Maloney Adam: Dear Eight Pound, Six Ounce, Newborn Rick Hahn, don't even know a word yet, just a little infant, so cuddly, but still omnipotent. Chip: He was a man! Maloney Adam: I like the baby version the best! Jerry Reinsdorf: I own the White Sox and I get the money!

2021: Colin McHugh close on 1 year Major League deal with Tampa Bay. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/rays-collin-mchugh-close-to-deal.html Mets talks with Cubs on for Bryant, JD Davis and a countering salary dump of Familia a possibility. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/kris-bryant-trade-rumors-mets-cubs.html 2022: Closer Ken Giles signs with Seattle, set to return after TJS in 2022. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/mariners-to-sign-ken-giles.html

I wouldn't give go-kart keys to LaRussa. Hoping Katz, learning from McCann last year, the addition of Narron and a commitment to working will result in Grandal significantly improving his game calling this season.

Attached is a chart from BP showing overall over/under projections over a 16 year span. Arizona and Saint Louis were the biggest outliers, with Arizona averaging a projected 4 wins higher than actual, and Saint Louis with 5 actual wins higher than PECOTA projections. The White Sox averaged 1 actual win more than the projection over this period. I believe the PECOTA projections for several of the White Sox players will improve substantially starting in 2022, if their development progresses as expected this season. That said, as I stated earlier in the thread, the lack of prior past performance and full season for the core young players accounts for the conservative projections in 2021. I also think the overconfidence shown by fans using the "eyeball" test is do to last seasons over performance versus expected results due to the absolutely horseshit schedule the White Sox played. There is a reason seven Central teams made the playoffs feasting on the horrid 3 bottom feeders, and all seven were dismissed in quick order.

Interesting article and analysis, thanks for posting! Dallas Keuchel also among the pitchers with the highest expected WAR drop off (4.9 vs. 2.5). Really hoping the Sox won't have to eat $20M with this guy in 2023, they really could use the money for extensions or an upgrade. The good news is the Twins also have a few expected regressions (Maeda and Cruz). On the flippity flip, Nick Madrigal on the list for hitters with the biggest expected WAR increase (0.3 to 2.3). Wish the Sox landed Joc Pederson, also on this list (0.0 to 2.1). Perhaps Jed's trade of Yu Darvish (THE highest expecting pitching drop off from 8.1 to 3.8) was smart in retrospect.

So many ignorant takes here today, feels like a game thread.

Oh say can you see By the dawn’s early light What so proudly we hailed STOP!!! I’m sorry ladies and gentlemen, there’s no reason to be doing this song here. Radio, Radio..... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eD_24nDzkeo

There always should have been four divisions, playoffs a best of seven League Championship Series and the best of seven World Series, the lone inter-league games each season. 160 game schedule, 16 Division Games (112), 6 Against Opposite Division (48) AL East: Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Charlotte, New York, Tampa Bay, Toronto. (8 EDT) AL West: Chicago, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Oakland, Seattle, Texas. (5 CDT 3 PDT) NL East: Atlanta, Cincinnati, Miami, Montreal, New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington. (8 EDT) NL West: Arizona, Chicago, Colorado, Houston, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Saint Louis. (3 CDT, 1 MDT, 4 PDT) Unfortunately, they will likely go with eight four team divisions, likely have a 20 + team playof, because greed and avarice. They may as well shift a few of the non league charter expansion teams to make more sense. I'd have a playoff of division winners, an 18 game Division (54) and 9 games against the other 12 league teams (108) AL East: Baltimore, Boston, New York, Toronto. AL Central: Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota. AL South: Houston, Miami, Tampa Bay. Texas. AL West: Colorado, Los Angeles, Oakland, Seattle. NL East: Montreal, New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh. NL Central: Chicago, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Saint Louis. NL South: Atlanta, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Washington. NL West: Arizona, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco.

The Cards and Cubs are unique based on their close proximity and the large swath of fans in the demarcation zone (Peoria / Bloomington Normal a no man's zone containing mixed allegiances, the Cards (South) and Cubs (North) for most of the rest of the state. For Sox fans during their finest stretch of solid teams (1950s-mid 1960s), the Yankees were the hated team for Sox fans, primarily for consistently finishing with a few wins more every year but 1959. The Sox sucked after that, and the few fans left were primarily concerned with not moving to Milwaukee, Denver or Tampa Bay. Many fans are currently sadly fixated on the Cubs, but the Sox have developed good rivalries with Minnesota over the past few decades, with Cleveland a worthy rival in terms of competitiveness, and then the cheap shot Old School bullshit slung by the pathetic Royals. It made perfect sense for Milwaukee to transfer. They were initially an NL city, and they share a similar fan mix of Cubs/Brewers fans along the Wisconsin border. There was typically a small uptick for Brewers White Sox at either park, but the Cubs / Brewers typically sell out with ticket prices raised specifically in Milwaukee. Plus they get to keep the Twins as their Interleague rival.

I created this thread last week, when PECOTA projections were player only, without the Team Depth Chart Standings available. My initial thoughts of the current 83-79 heading into this season: I do believe PECOTA projections (based on 50 percentile for individual and team projections) will experience a greater deviation to the mean 50% projection than previous seasons, due in large part to the first time nature of the tool's first (and hopefully last) time accommodating the 2020 60 game schedule debacle. I recall the Cubs (Theo in particular) and their fans going apeshit regarding the 2017 projections of a 91 win season as being far too low (they finished 92-70) after the World Series. Preseason projected wins are not certain by any means, but more often than not when the Vegas line and PECOTA deviate by 5 +/- wins, it typically indicates the betting public is over or undervaluing teams, and baring significant acquisitions or key injuries, it typically is wise to take the overlay and go against the public for value and profit. I do agree with most here the Sox will likely outperform their current 83 win projection, but would take the under in their winning percentage future odds of 90.5 wins (162 game season)/.559 winning percentage). There is a chance the White Sox can top Rick Renteria's great 2020 .583 winning percentage (aided by the imbalanced schedule) between 2022-2024. The lack of depth and also the fact several of their young core hitters (Eloy, Robert and Madrigal) and pitchers (Cease, Kopech and Crochet) will be attempting to play a 162 game season for the first time, with likely growing pains that will come along the way.

That is an extremely poor allocation of resources / signing if Grandal finishes the final 2-3 seasons catching less than 100 games. Grandal loses substantial value in terms of $s snd fWAR as 1B/DH, not to mention the fact the Sox already have far too many DH/1B in their system (Abreu, Vaughn, Jimenez plus the additional minor leaguers incapable of fielding). If games caught expectations for Grandal are 32 (2020), 80-100 (2021) under 80 (2022-2023), then the signing is a much bigger mistake than I assessed at the time (high AAV, length and age, assuming he could catch 100-120 games/year). If Collins is capable of catching 60 games per year and possibly DHing a few, that is the likely extent of his abilities given he is 26 and hasn’t done anything the previous two years to indicate he is capable to serve in a reserve role.

JR is entering his 41st season as owner, and there is a difference between pointing out their poor past performance and assessing future prospects. A fair assessment of these 40 years is the team had two legitimate World Series pitching staffs and lineups (1983 and 2005). No Bueno, especially when you were owned in the division most seasons by smaller market teams for 35 of the 40 years. Their future does look brighter. As long as the team targets a starting pitching role for a healthy Crochet, they should have 3-4 solid young pitchers in 2022, not counting Lynn or Keuchel. If Lynn is solid, you can consider extending (1 year preferable, 1 + team option and buy it would be my max based on age). Can also replace Keuchel with a better / younger option after 2022 if he doesn’t vest. If they can sustain their improvement in domestic drafts, significantly improve player development (Katz, Cairo, Hasler, Menechino, Narron and the promotion of Getz) and continue with Marco Paddy’s solid Cuban Connection, they can sustain a legitimate WS competitive window beyond 2023/2024.

I only turn on the four letter network for a baseball game (previously National games, adding White Sox this year). Let us know if any of the talk content has improved or at least partially covers baseball beyond the one hour show they offered early evenings. My previous exposure to that station is nearly all coverage (national or local hosts) revolves around NFL/NBA/National Hot Takes. I’ll listen to Connor McKnight as well, though loved listening to Rongey lose it postgame after Sox losses. With the Score, I weed out the bullshit (Bears, Navel-gazing, Politics, etc.) and listen to baseball talk (White Sox, Cubs, MLB Baseball discussions) targeting online podcasts which clearly label baseball discussions.

I don't believe there would be much of an impact, beyond the White Sox losing more road games before Chicago fans went to bed rather than after. The only current AL teams which have won less division titles are expansion franchises (Houston (though nearly double NL + AL), Seattle and Tampa Bay. The biggest beneficiary of the new watered down format are NL Wild Card teams, claiming five World Series titles since 1995. MLB Division Titles: American League: New York 19; Oakland 17; Minnesota 12; Boston & Cleveland 10; Baltimore & Los Angeles 9; Detroit, Kansas City & Texas 7; Toronto 6; Chicago 5; Houston, Seattle and Tampa Bay 3; Milwaukee 1. National League: Atlanta 20; Los Angeles 19; Saint Louis 14; Philadelphia 11; Cincinnati 10; Pittsburgh 9; Chicago & San Francisco 8; Houston & New York 6; Arizona & San Diego 5; Washington 4; Milwaukee 2; Montreal 1; Colorado & Miami 0 (Yet Two Marlins World Series - Wild Cards are Bullshit, all of it). MLB World Series Titles by Division Champions: Pre 1994: AL East 7 (Baltimore, New York & Toronto 2; Detroit 1) AL West 7 (Oakland 4; Minnesota 2; Kansas City 1) NL East 6 (New York & Pittsburgh 2; Philadelphia & Saint Louis 1) NL West 5 (Cincinnati 3; Los Angeles 2) Post 1995: AL East 8 (New York 5; Boston 3) National League Wild Cards 5 (1997 & 2003 Florida; 2011 Saint Louis; 2014 San Francisco; 2019 Washington) NL West 4 (San Francisco 2; Arizona & Los Angeles 1) American League Wild Cards 2 (2002 Los Angeles & 2004 Boston) NL East 2 (Atlanta & Philadelphia 1) NL Central 2 (Chicago & Saint Louis 1) AL Central 2 (Chicago & Kansas City 1) AL West 1 (Houston)

Pathetic. Baseballs were standard for decades until Manfred, his fellow owners and a hedge fund purchased Rawlings in 2018, after which they began fucking with the regular season and post season baseballs. What other sport operates with players and front office not knowing the type of the primary sport ball from year to year? Answer, the same sport that goes in weeks before the season without know which players will be used (DHs).

I get what your saying, but Dye and El Duque were the only examples of it working here in 20 seasons. Fans clamor for the top of market signings, which doesn’t make sense in terms of roster construction for a team with self imposed payroll austerity. That said, it’s not wise to overpay contract length for the mid level older FAs in an attempt to lower AAV. Also no need to win December, win the off-season. It’s as though they are timing free agent deals and trades hoping to sell more tickets for Christmas, content with overpaying for trade and free agent options up front, when a patient team is at an advantage as the season nears. This and lack of player development, including poor domestic drafting until recently, have resulted in smarter small market teams owning the Sox since the creation of the AL Central. A well run ball club would own this division on a consistent basis, even with a JR payroll.

You do realize Cobra Kai signed La Russa and Eaton this off-season. I was told by Stone, Ozzie and others on JR’s payroll this too was Ricky’s fault, and the White Sox would have went 74-0 last season if Tony La Russa was manager.

I agree, without internal player development and recent success the FO has had in the domestic class, this will be a short lived window. For me, the coaching hires have been more important than the limited player acquisitions this off-season. Not expecting Katz to work "miracles", but just the continued progress of shifting from 19th-20th century baseball to the current game is encouraging and long overdue. The "Cuban Connection" is the sole available option among how they obtained the current core (tanking or the Robert signing are no longer available). Good question. I can understand being cautious with revenue uncertainty, but to me they jumped the gun again early the past two off seasons. This year was the most fortuitous off-season for teams looking for free agents and patience would have netted more in terms of quality and quantity with a similar or slightly higher payroll. $20M more spread over 3-4 more quality players would have gone a long way toward ensuring the younger position players and pitchers can make it through their first full season. When you are a $128M payroll team, you can't succeed splurging $30M / year on positional luxuries (Hendriks and Grandal). I understood the Keuchel signing, but it's really going to hurt if he vests in 2023. The one type of free agent the Sox has succeed with consistently over the years have been internal players they knew best. They need to commit to Giolito and Anderson if they remain healthy and productive, or younger external free agents (28-30) to secure players that are not at higher risk of significant decline and injury. Grandal's back problems in year one and Keuchel's implosion in Oakland are concerning given the heavy payroll commitment.

This. I felt a few GMs/Managers were/are incompetent, and there will always be players who don't work out based on talent, injuries or other factors (example poor decisions like La Russa dumping Fisk out in Left Field). However, in 45 years of White Sox fandom, there are only four people (two players, one manager and one owner - sadly two of the four returned this off-season) in White Sox history I ever booed, primarily based on actions outside of the field. The first base coach is now number five, I wasn't aware of his past until joining this board. The Sox had no intentions on having a legitimate contender last year (COVID/Central short schedule were the reasons), and this year is primarily for pitching development (Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Rodon and Lopez), hoping to have a solid 4-5 pitchers for 2022-2024. The time to judge whether they are cheap or not is not this season, but rather their true window of 2022-2024. They may catch lightening in a bottle this year, but it is likely they won't be serious contenders beyond the AL Central until next year at the earliest.

Based on projections from the two most commonly known online baseball projection websites, most positions have a clear advantage of one player over another. PS - Don't shoot the messenger about First Base. Projections: fWAR = Fan Graphs presented first vs. warp = Baseball Prospectus presented second Consensus Picks in Bold: (Both sites project one player over another) Catcher Yasmani Grandal (4.1 / 4.7) over Wilson Contreras (1.9 / 2.9) First Base Anthony Rizzo (3.0 / 4.7) over Jose Abreu (1.8 / 2.9) Second Base Nick Madrigal (2.3 / 2.7) over Nico Hoerner (1.0 / 1.3) Shortstop Tim Anderson (2.6 / 2.0) over Javier Baez (2.6 / 1.9) => (fWAR tied, BP with slight edge to Anderson - basically a coin flip) Third Base Kirk Bryant (2.9 / 2.8) over Yoan Moncada (3.1 / 2.3) => (slight advantage to Bryant based on larger BP difference of 0.5 vs. Moncada's 0.2 fWAR advantage) Right Field Jason Heyward (1.7 / 1.8) over Adam Eaton (1.3 / 1.9) => (slight advantage to Heyward based on larger fWAR difference of 0.4 vs. Eaton's 0.1 BP advantage) Center Field Luis Robert (3.4 / 3.2) over Ian Happ (2.4 / 1.5) Left Field Eloy Jimenez (3.2 / 2.6) over Joc Pederson 2.0 / 2.2) Starting Pitcher 1 Lucas Giolito (4.2 / 2.9) over Kyle Hendricks (2.7 / 2.6) Starting Pitcher 2 Lance Lynn (3.0 / 2.0) over Zach Davies (1.4 / 1.1) Starting Pitcher 3 Dallas Keuchel (2.5 / 1.4) over Alec Mills (0.8 / 1.4) => (BP tied, fWAR with large edge to Keuchel) Starting Pitcher 4 Dylan Cease (1.5 / 0.4) over Adbert Alzolay (0.8 / 0.8) => (slight advantage to Cease based on larger fWAR difference of 0.7 vs. Alzolay's 0.4 BP advantage) Starting Pitcher 5 Michael Kopech (1.0 / 0.9) over Trevor Williams (0.7 / 0.1) Closer Liam Hendriks (1.9 / 1.3) over Craig Kimbrel (0.8 / 0.7)