Sports Guy

No, I’m saying most teams (if any) don’t have 4 starters better than Kremer. That’s an absolute fact. And again, I’m not a big Kremer fan. I want to deal him and most Os fans think that’s crazy but his actual performance since the second half of 2022 is pretty solid.

Your expectations for a trade are completely over the top. You just aren’t dealing in reality. This is what James is trying to tell you and he’s right.

I worry about Rodriguez simply because he throws so hard and guys who throw that hard seem to end up with TJ surgery. But he’s a big dude and showed zero signs of slowing down last year. Also, we don’t really know how many more innings he truly threw in 2023 vs 2022 because he did a lot of side work and stuff like that during his rehab. I know what the actual totals say but he threw more in 2022 than what those numbers tell you.

They do need more and I don’t necessarily disagree with what you are saying but while both of the top guys are inexperienced, there is very little to say they are taking some sort of a step back. In fact, GRod should be a lot better overall and Bradish has been excellent for 1.5 years, so there isn’t much in his stats that say you expect him to be worse. I want a true #3 or better guy and one more legit BP arm.

There isn’t a team in baseball that has even 4 starters better than Kremer (and I’m not a big Kremer fan) and Means has had a lot of success. What he is post TJ surgery we don’t know. But if Means can get back to where he was and Kremer continues to be solid, they will have a front 4 better than most teams. That said, they still lack that third guy you need in the playoffs and it may be asking a lot for Kremer to be as good and Means to come back strong. I would say 3/5 of the rotation is a question mark but you have history with 2 of those guys that suggests they should be fine. And Bradish and GRod can easily pitch well enough where you don’t need “historical offensive performances”. That’s completely over the top.

What recent history proves otherwise? The reason those 2 are riskier than Westburg and Kjerstad is because you have already seen Westburg and Kjerstad produce at a high level in the upper minors and Westburg showed pretty well in his first stint in the majors. Its not even close which pairing is riskier.

1) Just because other players failed doesn’t mean it will happen again. Whataboutism isn’t a good argument when it comes to stuff like this. 2) Jones had a 738 OPS in his short stint in AA. He hasn’t hit for a good average in the the higher levels of the minors he has gotten to so far and he struck out 133 times in about 450 plate appearances in single A. That’s a K rate of 30%…in A ball. He’s likely not on the table anyway and he’s probably a step above a lottery ticket but not by much. His performance thus far is very subpar. Hampton was a little better in AA than what Jones showed by he had a BB rate over 3 and a very high home run rate. His ERA was 4.37. You do like the K rate and he did average over 5 innings a start. Definitely some positives but he’s not some destined for greatness guy. I think you could get him it sounds like. But the point I’m making when I discuss a lottery ticket is more about what you are saying w/r/t players not moving the needle and being too old. Hampton and Jones are younger and will be younger when you theoretically contend but by that point, they will still be in the mid 20s. The only way you are getting a “needle mover” (as you seem to be defining it) and someone younger is if you take on lottery ticket, Tatis Jr type guys. By your definition, it’s unlikely Jones or Hampton will be needle movers either, so you have to go after the high risk/high reward type guys but then you are relying on your player development system to develop those guys. In other words, there is a good chance you trade Cease and end up with nothing for him.

That’s fine and I get your point but if they are playing at a relatively high level when it’s time to contend, that’s not a bad thing. You are assuming that you get some 20 y/o A ball player and that they WILL develop and be good. These guys are already developed. Considering a theme on this board is that “we must hit on this trade”’, advocating for a lot of lottery tickets is certainly an odd thing imo.

Also, do you trust your player development to develop far away from the majors players?

I don’t disagree with your overall point here. But if I can play devils advocate for a moment. You are pining for Jones who will be in his mid 20s once he’s ready to be a full time MLer and you have no idea if he will even develop. Westburg is already a good MLer. Kjerstad showed some signs last year at the ML level and his MiL resume is very strong..far better than what Jones has done so far and Kjerstad is obviously done with the minors in terms of needing to prove himself. I feel like you are really overestimating wither what Spencer Jones is or what you should be getting back. You mentioned that so and so doesn’t move the needle. Guys like Westburg and Kjerstad are 2-3 WAR players with the upside to be more than that. Do you think those guys just grow on trees? You aren’t getting a super star talent for Cease. That would have come had you traded him after 2022 but you didn’t. So unless you are just going to trade him for 4-5 18-20 year old prospects where you are doing nothing but hope you get back your Tatis Jr, you just aren’t getting that stud top 20 prospect. So while I do get wanting younger players I also think you are completely undervaluing the value of good to very good players and are overvaluing what you can get for Cease.

I said today my assumption is one of the OFers, Westburg and something like Beavers and McDermott/Povich. That is in line with the reported ask from Getz.

I said today my assumption is one of the OFers, Westburg and something like Beavers and McDermott/Povich. That is in line with the reported ask from Getz.

That was based on the idea that Westburg was in the deal. Gotta read the conversation. That said, Ortiz could easily be as valuable a player as Westburg.

Well first of all, Mountcastle will not be on the team. Secondly, you seem to have this idea that just because we have depth that we should just trade more than we should. You are essentially saying to trade 2 top 50 prospects for Cease when it’s likely not even one top 50 prospect is on the table. Now, with all of that being said, I may consider this depending on what else is available and what else it would take to get that player. It’s an interesting thought though. I think of a lot of scenarios and one thing to consider here would be, would you rather have Kjerstad or Westburg or Beavers/Povich/unnamed prospect. Depending on who that prospect is, you may prefer that package vs one of them. I have to say, I don’t hate it as much as I think I would have but thinking about it more makes me think it may not be a bad way to go. I know what most others on our board would say but it’s a discussion worth having imo.

What exactly did I ignore? I must have missed something because I don’t see what I ignored. It wasn’t intentional if I did. You started this off by asking don’t they know that Luzardo or Valdez is going to cost more? My answer is yes they do and they are ok with it. Now, I will say if the cost is Holliday, the answer would be no but no Os fan believes that to be the case. Not saying they are right or wrong, just telling you the thought process. For me, there are only 2 options..Cease or one of the Marlins pitchers, with Cabrera being the most likely. I’m not really interested in the other 2 “big names”.

Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Holliday and Mayo are the definites. Cowser and Ortiz likely. Bradfield is probably a likely but obviously need to see more of him. Beyond those guys, players like Horvath, Beavers and Norby factor in as well. The Os also have some very interesting young intl guys that are showing great signs. You just never know what direction they go. All of that being said, that’s obviously relying on all these guys developing and while it’s possible, historically it’s not likely. So they will likely have to add from outside the org.

Well, to say he’s not being reasonable is pretty absurd because you have no idea what he is offering or trying to do elsewhere. That said, I share the same concerns. Right now, I think the Os are an 85-95 win team. Lots of things can go right or wrong to determine where in that range they will fall. Getting another real pitcher matters in that…and it really matters for the playoffs.

Sorry, meant isn’t, not is.

They make the most sense for you guys And it’s far more likely that Cashman overpays than Elias does.

There is no argument that Mayo is one dimensional and Basallo isn’t.

No, I’m not doing anything that your mind is going to. Im merely saying that many(I can’t speak for all fans and not all fans feel this way, thus why I am using the word many) fans would spend more for those guys because they either perceive them to be better and/or have more service time (ie like Luzardo). I actually don’t want Framber at all. He has too much noise in some of his stats that he doesn’t excite me. And I wouldn’t pay the price for Luzardo unless they are taking ML pieces back…I don’t trust his durability. And they wouldn’t have to deal Holliday to get Valdez but Mayo is possible for sure.

People get that. Do you get that people view those guys are better options, therefore they would happily trade more to get them? (I actually don’t agree with that thought but many do)

I don’t think the return is going to be light at all. I just don’t define light the same way you do. I do think there are Os fans out there that are completely undervaluing Cease, just as I think some of you are completely overvaluing him. Of course, that’s exactly what you would expect. I don’t mean this in any bad way but us (you, me, whoever) saying high end, mid tier, etc…doesn’t have a lot of meaning. I say that simply because we can define that differently (I use the same words, so again this isn’t me bashing your choice of words or anything) for example, my offer would be Westburg, Beavers, Povich and either a ML ready bat like Stowers (big time left handed power bat) or a prospect like Jud Fabian or Max Wagner…someone with some holes in their game but could develop into an every day MLer. I know some of you see that as light. The one thing I do agree that it likely lacks (I say likely because you never know if a player just blows up) a really high ceiling guy but barring you getting some 19 or 20 year old who grows and develops in the best case scenario, I don’t think you are getting that player in this deal. So, I don’t think that’s a trade that someone beats. I do think it’s a trade that someone like the Yankees can match and then that comes down to the types of players you are getting, do you want guys closer to being ML ready, etc… If that’s “it”, do you run the risk of keeping him and seeing what happens? Maybe. I agree with anyone saying his value could go up. It absolutely could and holding him could pay huge dividends. OTOH, it could also blow up in your face and you end up with nothing. That’s a big blow to you guys.

The common theme amongst you guys (as a group, not individually) is that you must hit on this trade. Cease is one of your few trade chips that can bring back talent and some would rather hold him, despite the risk, to bring back what you feel is the max value for him. In your same breath, some are saying that you would prefer higher upside players for him. For the most part, those are going to be further away, younger prospects. I would assume you agree with that. So, if it’s so important to hit on this trade, the question is, why would you want lower floor players that could easily blow up in your face and you end up with nothing? I like the high ceiling type guys..I don’t need top 100 players. Years ago, when the Os traded Machado, I wanted Dustin May, who wasn’t a top 100 guy. Many Os fans were fixated on the idea of a top 100 prospect. Not me..I wanted the upside. Im not saying it’s wrong to want that. Just saying that there is another side to that.

You might but if you do, I doubt you are getting more than that(ie not 3-4 total players)..of course, it depends on how you are defining that and who is defining it. In other words, are you saying someone is definitively better because of age? Are you saying it because of performance? Scouting reports?