Sports Guy

1) You guys wanting to squeeze every ounce of juice out of Cease is perfectly reasonable. I have said time and time again that I think Getz has handled this properly from the get go. However, your need to get as much possible out of Cease doesn’t increase his value. Your desire to walk away with a high end package if prospect doesn’t change what teams will trade for him. 2) So because it happened with one, means it will happen again? When they traded Quintana, did they try the offseason before, not get what they want and then got more in July? (I don’t remember) either way, even if that’s what they did, it doesn’t mean it will work again 3) see #1. 4) when did I say differently? I literally said the other day that I think you have better matches out there. I have never said the Os would blow anyone out of the water. I have always said that other teams could offer similar prospects because our top 3 aren’t there. Now, what I do think is likely is that no one is putting a BETTER lead prospect than Kjerstad or Cowser but we don’t know if Elias will put them out there either. 5) I agree with you, which I have stated many times. The only thing you seem to be missing is that Cease isn’t the only guy to help solve their pitching issue. 6) Ok and? Have I ever disagreed with that? 7) sure I can because it’s the info we have. We have an idea of what Getz is asking for. We also know a deal has not been done. We don’t know anything about anyone’s offer to say the offers have been poor. What we do know is that suitor after suitor has chosen to go other directions, even trades, to get what they want while Cease remains a CWS starting pitcher. Now, maybe all the offers have been jokes. I find that hard to believe but it’s possible…we just don’t know to say it for sure. But we do know that, so far, Getz has an asking price that has been deemed by 5-10 teams as too much. That is a known fact. I’m trying to figure out what I’m disagreeing with or what new info you are bringing to the table to go after me and post this long post? Im not even disagreeing with most of this and I never have. I think you thought this would be some kind of a “gotcha post” but it was a post filled with your hopes and dreams and things I have agreed with and said myself countless amounts of time.

Can I physically see a post before I respond to it? Or am I supposed to just assume the post is there before it exists and respond to it out of thin air?

No one with any intelligence is saying Ortiz should be able to headline the deal.

Ortiz is a good player..but he’s not a top 50 guy. I think he’s more in the 70-100 range because of his age.

And that’s fine. Maybe you just say F it..don’t rebuild because of how the draft is now. Maybe you just roll with what you have and see if you can build while trying to win. That’s fine too.

First of all, i think you (and when i say you, i mean a general you, not you you) need to get the rankings stuff out of your heads. Just because MLb has him 73rd doesn’t really mean much of anything. What matters is the evaluation of the 2 teams. Now, I personally don’t see what all the hubbub is about Jones and if I were the Yankees, no way I’m letting him stop Me from getting Cease. But again, what else has to go with him? The Info out there this time of year is usually wrong or incomplete. You just don’t know. I get it, we can only discuss what we are hearing and I don’t fault you or anyone for that but it is an important piece here. But to answer your question, no it’s not too much of an ask but if they are also asking for 2-3 other highly rated guys, maybe it is too much. I am in favor of moving one of Cowser or Kjerstad. However, I think it’s fair to wonder if that’s too much. If Jones is the “lead guy” from the Yankees and you care about the rankings and put value into them than no way should Kjerstad or Cowser being leading a package because they are ranked 40-60 spots higher. So, while I don’t think asking for one of those is too much, it’s fair to say that it is. Btw, to answer you first question..yes both things could be possible but my counter to that is that we have seen so many teams in on Cease and so many going after him that I would guess that they haven’t gotten a bunch of sh!t offers and that’s it.

Sigh. No one is saying he has to do it right now.

But your basis for “offers are poor” is what? You have zero idea what has been offered. It’s far more likely that Getz is asking for too much vs every single offer being poor.

It’s not so much that he’s an exception…it’s that it’s a huge risk to hope that he’s going to all of a sudden be worth a huge package. The ask now is a huge package of players. The question is, will he be worth a huge package of players come July? That’s not the same thing as saying he’s worth more in July than now. The question is, what is he actually worth now and is the potential of him being worth more than that worth the risk of holding onto him? See, as of right now, we dont know what he’s worth. If reports are true, we know what the WS are asking for but that’s different than what he’s worth. For the sake of argument, let’s say he’s worth one top 50 guy, a borderline top 100 guy and a lottery ticket right now. Now, let’s say he has a good first half. At that point, he may be worth 1 top 50 guy, a more solid top 100 guy, another solid prospect and a lottery ticket. So, one more good prospect and a slightly better second piece. But that’s a different discussion than saying he will be worth multiple top 50 prospects and other players, which is what he would have to be worth to see an increase in value vs what Getz is asking.

When discussing this, most of you are only looking as the best case scenario. None of you are saying, maybe Getz is just asking for too much and that he needs to adjust to avoid any potential longer term issues.

It’s possible…and Cease may or may not be a guy available. Cease may or may not be a guy they want. Cease may be a guy that is or isn’t worth what he’s worth now. A few weeks ago, you guys had 5-8 suitors. Now it may only be 1 or 2. Other pitchers will be available too.

Again, you are comparing value now vs value later. He COULD be worth more later. He likely won’t be.

Well considering I’m acknowledging that he could be worth more, I’m not negating anything. What I am doing is casting doubt. Your last line says everything…the market MAY be different. Yes, it may. It may also not. It may also be a worse market. There are so many unknown factors and variables that all you are doing is hoping. That’s a bad strategy. If he ends up getting hurt or pitches poorly or it’s found out that he microwaves kittens for enjoyment, the value is down and you guys miss out on trading one of your only pieces that can bring back good talent and at that point, you either sell for 50 cents on the dollar or you keep hoping every time of the team you look to trade him, he’s doing better.

That’s not likely. You want to point to more teams being interested…all of those teams could get him right now and the determined that he’s not good enough to justify the asking price and they went with other options. So now you think they pay more for less starts? Again, it’s possible but he has to be pitching at a higher level. There is also just the thought of Getz asking for way too much. By all accounts, Cease was eligible to be traded last July and the ask was too much. This seems to be a theme. He obviously worth a high price tag last deadline but now he will be a year later?

The question is value now vs value later. His value is unquestionably higher right now than it will be in July UNLESS he is pitching at a higher level than he did in 2023. Again, pitching fetches more at the deadline than the offseason most of the time but that pitcher has to be pitching well. If Cease has a league averaging ERA+ come July 20th and the walk rate is still an issue, Getz isn’t getting 2 premium prospects and 2 other good pieces. He can’t get it now and he won’t get it later. The idea of hanging onto Cease is based solely off the idea that they feel he will be better. If he is than it’s a gamble that could pay off. However, this is more to go wrong than go right.

What exactly do you disagree with you? You think his value doesn’t changed with 20 less starts that the acquiring team gets?

No, the point about less service time means he’s less valuable. Just because he’s postseason eligible for you twice doesn’t mean that’s the only thing that matters.

Sure that’s possible but you some of you guys also thought you could get Dominguez. It was never happening. And maybe they would trade Jones but don’t want to put a bunch of other top talent with him. We don’t really know. I think a quantity deal with one top 100 guy and other guys with that upside is the likely outcome here.

It does matter because you aren’t getting him for 20ish starts and in theory, if you have him for those starts, your ability to make the playoffs increases. Him being available to pitch in the playoffs doesn’t matter if you don’t get there.

https://x.com/jonheyman/status/1745670711828496530?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA Again, the market saying you are asking for too much.

So if you do this, what is the thought process behind it? Play things out for a moment. We can all agree, I think, that if Cease has a really good first half that he will be worth as much, if not more, than he is now. We should also be able to agree that pitchers fetch more at the deadline than they do in the offseason. That’s the general rule of thumb. So, a scenario does exist where he is worth as much if not more. But that’s the absolute best case, everything goes perfect scenario. It’s possible but is it likely? Now, play out other scenarios….he gets hurt and you get nothing. He has similar results in 2024 as he had in 2023 only now he has less service time and he is now even further removed from 2022. Let’s say the results are only slightly better than 2023 but now less service time. End of the day, there is really only one scenario where he fetches more and that may be the most far fetched scenario of all of them. And what does fetching more mean? How much more? Is it worth it the risk for whatever the difference ends up being? The assumption seems to be that the offers are bad. The assumption is not, Getz is asking for too much. The market tells you that he’s asking for too much. When your house is worth 500k and you are asking 700k, the value of your house doesn’t increase because “you love your house”. Your house is worth what people will pay. The market is clearly saying that Cease isn’t worth what Getz thinks he’s worth. Whether Getz is off by 20% or 50%, who knows but he’s off. I think the best thing to do is for Getz to come down off his price, get someone else to move up on their price and come to some sort of an agreement. I just can’t see a scenario where it’s worth the risk to wait and trade him even if I agree that the risk could pay off.

It would be a buy and sell thing. They would acquiring pieces to help the ML roster right now.

Cabrera has been the guy mentioned for the Os. I think it’s just speculation but he makes sense. He is a high risk/high reward guy. They have Max Meyer coming back plus all their other pitching. They easily have guys to trade even with Alcantara out all year but they need a starting SS and other offense. We match up perfectly with them.

No I don’t want him at all. If I don’t get one of the Marlins starters, Cease or Bieber, I’m going with Hall as our 5th starter because he has an immense ceiling even if he’s not likely to reach it.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mike-clevinger-605182?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb There are some positive things there…but he doesn’t solve the true need of the Os.