Sports Guy

They are so dumb and reactionary, I would be surprised if they don’t do something stupid for one of those 3 guys.

And you guys are now going to fleece the hell out of the Yankees for Cease if they don’t get Snell or Montgomery.

Amazing!

They aren’t spare parts but it’s unlikely the Os can get Luzardo without Mayo or Basallo being in the deal…which is why he’s a bad target for the Os and why Cease, who has been the better and more durable pitcher in his career, is the better target.

This is correct.

So no, you can’t do it. Just what I thought. You call a take ridiculous but do no actual analysis or fact checking to say that. I guess I can just ignore your “brilliant insight”. You are just a troll.

Of the starters who threw at least 100 innings, Kremer was 80th in K rate and 63rd in BB rate.

Show me that it’s a ridiculous take with actual stats and analysis. I’m guessing you aren’t capable of that.

You keep jumping in here with your horrible take. What analysis are you providing in this discussion exactly?

Your fixated on the #4 starter thing. It’s the idea that teams don’t have 4 starters in their rotation better Kremer. Hell, only 44 starters in all of MLb even qualified in 2023. Being durable and throwing innings matters. Im not talking talent. Squirming wants to bring up FIP, which is a poor way to judge this because the FIp is a predictive stat. I am talking about actual production. For example, of the pitchers who even threw just 100 innings last year, which was 120 players, he was 63rd in ERA. That is a measure of what he actually did.

he’s never held my #1 spot

But your ranking is your opinion. For example, (I edited) you mentioned the Rays. You may prefer their talent but it’s absurd to say Bradley or Baz are better than Kremer. There is no evidence that shows that to be true. They may end up better and I would rather take a chance on their talent compared to Kremer but saying they are currently better is just flat out wrong.

That doesn’t say he’s the best 4th starter. That’s saying most teams don’t have 4 better starters. There is a difference there. It’s also subjective who is a 4th starter on every team…there are a lot of factors there. There may be teams with 4 starters with more talent. He mentioned Baz (who hasn’t pitched) and Bradley and that anyone would take them. Sure, you would rather have them talent wise but obviously Kremer was the better pitcher last year (and the year before) and he’s the better bet entering 2024 as well.

Wow…a contract completely out of the norm for Houston. (At least FA wise)

I’m aware..but that’s a stat CWS likes, so I cited it. There are a lot of other actual stats are solid for him. (Just as there are others that suck)

Please show me one post where I said he’s the best 4th starter in the league. Show me one.

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/50186-orioles-2023-4-prospect-heston-kjerstad-rf/#comment-3049835 That’s a good scouting report to give you an idea.

First of all, those guys aren’t plodders. They aren’t speed demons but they move really well. Kjerstad has some excellent home to third times this year, for example. (I want to say 12-13 seconds) Part of the reason they feel Mayo will work in the OF is because of his athleticism and the idea that he is quick enough out there. Mateo has one foot out the door. The Os are just using what they have. Zero interest in Jazz. He’s not needed.

I do know that but that is a predictive stat and it says he’s likely to regress this year..something I agree with. However, I’m talking about what he actually did.

Well the Os are a far better org right now than the WS were. Our system is better (even after bringing up a lot of guys), our development is better, scouting, etc.. I’m not worried about falling apart like you guys did. What I am worried about is not capitalizing on success and watching that success be more what happened to us in 2013 and 2015…the Os went to the playoffs in 2012 and were arguably the best team in the AL in 2014 (until their awful ALcS showing) but they didn’t do anything following those years.

Kremer was 87th in the majors in fWAR for pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. Only 44 starters qualified in all of MLB..Kremer was one of them. Being durable and available is important. He was 39th in fWAR amongst those starters. He pitched to a 3.25 ERA in the second half of last year. In 2022, he had a 3.55 ERA in the second half. So, over his last 256 IP, he has an ERA of about 3.9. So yea, he’s not a bad pitcher and you would be hard pressed to find teams with 4 starters better than him. Hell, most teams don’t even have 3 starters better, especially if you place importance on durability, which you should.

Why would we go after Jazz? I don’t have interest in him. Cabrera would be my target. He won’t cost nearly the packages we are talking about because of his durability and command/control question marks but the upside is really strong and so is the service time. What would I trade for him? I don’t know. There are tons of scenarios that make sense, so I think there are lots of ways to get a deal done there.

You are preaching to the choir. We have posters that feel since the team won 101 games last year that we are being handed a playoff spot. At least, that’s the attitude they have in their posts.

The Marlins will likely want ML talent back for Luzardo, as they are trying to win and want offensive help now. They have also been after Santander for the last year. That being said, they have a new GM now and he is now that much more expensive and only one more year of service time. In other words, who the hell knows if they would want him. I think Luzardo is a bad target personally but people are obsessed with the extra year of service time compared to Cease.

The argument is misleading in a lot of ways but the one thing it should tell Os fans is that Cease is a good talent. The short sightedness by some of the fans is really mind boggling to me.