Cerbaho-WG

Most scouts would disagree with you on the idea that a player over 25 is a prospect. I subscribe to many different propsect reports and they always say things like, although this 27 year old is having a good year at AAA he is too old to be considered a prospect. You see a ton of stuff like that. I do agree with the scouts and think that you need to make a cutoff. In my mind a prospect is unproven potential, but after 25 that potential begins to run dry, especially if you haven't stepped foot onto a major league field. Look at the last 10 years of baseball and tell me what percentage of players that make it to the majors for the first time after 25 become solid major leaguers? Answer, as close to 0% without hitting it. So I believe that players over 25 shouldn't be considered prospects because the percentage that become solid major leaguers are so small that you have a better shot at winning the lottery. In regards to Bullard, the reason that he hasn't fallen of is because he has never put up good numbers to begin with. Check his stats. You really can't fall off when the guy has never posted an ERA below 3. Answer me this? Which 2 of the 3 have a better shot at the majors and more importantly becoming solid major leaguers? Answer Rogowski and Hummel. If you don't believe me ask any minor league expert of scout. Pose the same question to Sickle on ESPN and I guarantee you that he will say Rogowski and Hummel. Why? Because they are simply better prospects with more potential. In the end the only thing that matters is what they do at the major league level, so why have a guy with less of a chance to make the majors ranked ahead of prospects with a better shot. In regards to Hummel, he was ranked in the top 10 by ESPN coming into the season for Sox prospects. Has he done anything to make him drop that much? I guess his .280+ average, solid gap power numbers, solid plate disipline, 6-6 in SB, and solid D from what I hear is enough to drop him 20+ spots. With all due respect to the people who put together this list, I have a little more respect for the experts that put together the ESPN list and the people at Baseball America and other minor league scouting reports, which all believe that at the very least he is one of the Sox top 15 prospects. Having him as high as 32 is ridiculous. In regards to Rogowski, he had a great year in 2001 in I remember correctly. These are just estimates off the top of my head because I am to lazy to find his 01' numbers, but I think he hit in the .280-.290 range, with 15-20 HR's, 70-80 RBI's, 15-20ish SB, a high number of walks and almost a 1:1 BB:SO ratio. He was hurt for most of the 2002 season and when he came back reports said that he wasn't 100% so I think you have to kind of throw out his 2002 numbers. He got off to a slow start this year, possible still from his injury in 2001, but has been pretty hot of late and will probably see his numbers go up. The one thing that remains consistant with him is his plate disipline, which I am a huge fan of in a young player. Its usually a good sign that they will continue to hit at the upper minors and into the majors(the same can be said with Hummel and is one of the reason that I am one of the biggest Reed fans). Rogowski should probably be in the 15-20 range in the ranking. I know that I am being a little harsh, but these are just my opinions. I follow the minors very closely and subscribe to multiple minor league reports that I generally follow when it comes to judging prospects. That in no why means that my opinions are right. I do appreciate the work that you guys put into this ranking. For the most part it is accurate. I will come up with my own 1-50 ranking just to compare. I will use my own guidelines, ie no one over the age of 25 and anyone with fewer than 100 IP or 300 AB's at the major league level is eligible Just for fun. Whatever happened the Reyes is similar to Jeter comparison that you guys used last year? Sorry, I just found it rather funny that you compared a 5'6 SS who will probably be a utility infielder at the best to one of the top SS in the game. Then explain to me why Baseball America, basically the definitive source on anything minor league baseball, has included Jose Contreras, Hideki Matsui, Brandon Donnelly, etc. No matter how old you are, you are a prospect unless you have met the minimum requirements of not being a rookie according to the MLB standards. I don't care what you think personally, I care what MLB regards. Who has the better shot of making it to the bigs, I don't care how long, someone like say Aaron Kirkland or Jorge Nunez with sub-par numbers at a decent age, or Cliff Brumbaugh at 29 with good numbers at AAA. If you tell me Nunez or Kirkland, you are ouf of your mind. You can't discount people who are older than 25 as non-prospects, a bunch of major-leaguers never really "made it" until they were in their upper 20's. Should we just completely ignore them? Asinine. I agree with you about Rogowski and Hummel having a better chance than Bullard to become solid major-leaguers, but why do I have to ask a scout or minor-league expert? That is THEIR perception and opinion, not mine. Stats don't lie, your eyes do. I don't care about what upside Player A has, or how many tools he has. Show me Player A's stats, that's all I need to see to judge. Baseball America rated Hummel the #17 prospect in the Sox organization, and it's great for him to hit .278 with a decent OBP when he's repeating AAA again? Again, he's playing in a hitters park, and if the sabermetricians from say Baseball Prospectus had him playing in a neutral park, his stats would be s***. Aaron Miles and Ruddy Yan have blown by Hummel with ease, and I stcik by putting Hummel at 32. He's not going to play for the Sox over Miles, and maybe Yan if he pans out. Rogowski does not deserve to be in the 15-20 range with the stats he's putting up right now. His power numbers are shoddy, and the only thing he really has going for him is his K:BB ratio and OBP. He's repeating High-A ball, I expect more out of him. Again, your guidelines, to put it nicely, are s***. The MLB cutoff for rookies is the following: no age, 50 IP, I believe 200 ABs, and a certain amount of games. You're more than welcome to throw Willie Harris on your prospect list, it's just dumb as all hell to do so. Also, I never compared Reyes to Jeter. Jason might have, but I wouldn't compared Reyes to Jeter. Jeter, top SS in the game, give me a break. He's an overrated singles hitter.

Backman. It baffles me how the Barons are at .500 with their anemic offense. He runs their asses off, and all his players play their heart out.

All prospects on this list, are prospects. They have not exhausted their minimum stay at the big league level, so, they are still rookies, no matter how old.

Bullard is ranked ahead of Hummel and Rogowski for this reason: He hasn't regressed as badly as Hummel and Rogowski. Hummel was a surefire bet to be the Sox 2nd baseman of the future, but he has been only mediocre the past two years, with the exception of his stint in the AFL. Rogowski has all the potential, but has never put up the stats to be recommended to be put higher. Both Rogowski and Hummel have been very disappointing this year, and Bullard has somewhat of an excuse because he is still getting situated to his bullpen role. Hummel will not make the majors with Aaron Miles playing the way he his, and he honestly shouldn't. In my mind, he doesn't merit a promotion by hitting .278 with a .340 OBP in a hitters park.

I can't listen to the draft tomorrow without plunking over 10 bucks to listen to s***ty radio for a year. My God.

Paul Konerko's and Joe Crede's combined OPS = 1.159 Albert Pujols' OPS = 1.130 Talk about two massive f***ing sinkholes in the lineup.

We still love your .405 OBP Frank!

Jason and I were throwing around some names, and in some of our trade possibilities, they'd give him up. Also, we decided that when KW is fired/resigns, we're going to apply for s***s and giggles.

Number of walks Joe Crede has in 183 AB: 6 Number of walks Joe Borchard has in 26 AB: 5 Ugly!

Sit Konerko, play Daubach. He hit 20+ HRs and 75+ RBIs his first four/five years in Boston. He should be playing everyday, he's a solid left-handed bat. Please, bench Crede. His OBP is around .250, which is awful. I want to see Graffy playing.

Rofl.

I'll go kidnap Billy Beane, brb.

Manuel f***s up another game. Pathetic.

4-1, tieing run at the plate, nothing. 4-2, 1st and 3rd one out, nothing. Now it's 4-3. MARTE CAN PITCH TO RIGHT HANDERS, TOO. Awful.

Rauch will never be a front-end starter. He'll project as a 3, but that's it. If I would trade Colon, I'd go mainly for position players. Look at what Cleveland did last year; they picked up Brandon Phillips, who was probably the best infielder in the minors, and Grady Sizemore, who has consistently hit .300 in his career. Also picked up Cliff Lee, who is defintely good, but the main cogs were Phillips and Sizemore. I really doubt Sabean would unload Ainsworth, Bonser, and Foppert/Williams for Colon and Gordon. He'd ask for Marte, Munoz, Ring, etc. He's not going to give up three of his top tier pitching prospects for an ace he might no resign and an injury prone reliever. I like the trade with Anaheim, with the exception of Jenks. I hate the guy, I hate his stats, I hate his hype. Most likely he could be a closer, but he has no clue where the ball is going half the time. Again, I'd try and drag Kotchman out of Anaheim. With Percival being diagnosed with a degenrative hip, they will want a closer. Erstad is coming back, and with Owens as a CF, they don't have a need for Rowand. Ship him to Colorado, they've been longing for him for a while. Koch and Valentin for J.D. Drew, who's agent is Scott Boras, would be a f***ing steal for St. Louis. They get a closer who is turning it around, and a pretty good shortstop who will most likely walk at the end of the year and get either A or B comp for him, for a center fielder who will never resign with the Sox. Nevin for Konerko? I'd probably do it, only because Konerko is so one-dimensional it sickens me. If these trades did go down, the rebuilding project would be miles and miles away from the one Mark Shapiro did in Cleveland.

Any dirt on them?

RICKEY HENDERSON, LOZLZL!!! Sadly, he is actually the best bet for a good leadoff hitter.

The sox don't need any more pitching prospects at all, the entire system is just pitching prospects. The main focus of these trades would be to get the following: A catcher - absolutely barren at the position 1B - Only viable prospect is Rogowski, and he is iffy. Drag Kotchman out of Anaheim. 2B - Pedro Lopez? Ruddy Yan looks good, but it would be essential to get some insurance. SS - Andy Gonzalez? To be honest, I was never blown away by him. His numbers were iffy, and he's been almost awful at kannapolis. Lots of upside, but eh. 3B - Schnurstein, and that's it. I'd try and swing a trade for an Andy Marte or someone to solidify the position. OF - Webster, Reed, Brice? Anyone!

The last stand for Josh Paul, thank God. Should have brought up Jamie Burke but, eh.

He hits 50 points higher when he's playing first. Just leave him there.

Everyone said that Jeremy Brown at 37 was a big mistake as well, and look what he's doing at AA Midland.

http://arizonaathletics.ocsn.com/sports/m-...on_brian00.html

I think Ring will turn out to be a good draft pick.

With the success of the last two drafts, I'd mainly just let everyone walk after the season and receive a ton of Type A comp picks. You'd be getting, I believe Jose, Colon, and C Lee. That's seven first round picks for next years draft.

Honel's peak velocity is around 93, and reports have said he's back up to that range. As Jason said, hopefully we can see him start a game down in Winston-Salem when we're down there.