LDF

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 10:20 PM) Right. Danks was a very good pitcher before his shoulder surgery. Since then, he's been varying degrees of bad until last year, where he was merely "slightly below average." Since than last season is the most recent, it holds more weight than the other seasons individually, but it doesn't hold more weight than the combined effect of the larger, multi-year sample. So if you want to say something like "what kind of pitcher is John Danks post-surgery," one VERY simple (too simple, but effective for the purposes of the example) way to do it would be to simply average his results since. That way, his outlier 2015 is included but not over-represented. Danks' average fWAR since his surgery is 0.7 fWAR per season. So are you comfortable saying that guy is a 1.8 fWAR pitcher next year? In truth, you'd make it more complicated. First of all, you'd weight the most recent season by some factor. I didn't do that above because I have no idea what that factor is, but guys that make projection systems have figured it out enough to make a really solid guess. Regardless, it's a safe to assume that the 0.7 figure is low, perhaps a weighted average might make it closer to 1.0 fWAR.Secondly, you'd look at what actually changed to make him more productive, and then decide if those factors are likely or not likely to continue or to be indicative of a sustainable skill. Danks' 2014 (0.5 fWAR) and 2015 (1.8 fWAR) seasons were actually REMARKABLY similar -- the biggest difference is he struck out a few more guys (on a per inning basis) this year. The second biggest difference, though, appears to be that league offense got better, which means something for his contributions but doesn't necessarily suggest that he's a better pitcher. Thirdly, you might try to find a difference in his peripherals or style that could have sustainably contributed to his increased strikeout rate. For example, did his velocity increase? Did he add a pitch? If so, this would very ironically be the same argument for Danks improving that Dick Allen is arguing AGAINST in the case of Zach Duke. i will give you credit, you do make a compelling argument but for me, taking the advance stat out of the equation, i will settle this as before his surgery and post surgery result. now the book is clean and everything is new stats as you pointed out. thus there is no book. now for my disclaimer, you may be trying to point this out in using the stats and i am too dumb to realize it .... all i can say to that, if that is the case, pls excuse my post.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 06:23 PM) Yes it will because by sending him down only relieved 950K from the cap, so calling him back up and sending Dano down will be a 200K difference. beside my screw up on my math skills, the point is bringing up bickell is a sad repitition of even a worst case of a failed player. the player is 30 yrs old and needs to get motivated to play better, to get his head into the game or even to do his job, etc .... how many times a refresher is needed?? someone as, Q once said, has all the talent to do something in the nhl is lazy and can not do his job, except for when his contract yr and his performance in the playoff. one of the biggest problem i have with SB is he can not really judge talent in which he needs to give out contracts. some of them been really too long. Bicker reminds me of Tyler Arnason of the hawks, i remember a rant that foley went off on him for being extremely talented but another one who was lazy... a short career as a hawk and his career in the nhl. (can't find youtube) but the point is, how can he needs to wake up call. he is a vet who gets paid a lot.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 06:43 PM) That's not true. Two things: 1. The $/WAR thing does NOT say "Player x's performance was worth $y because of z WAR." The $/WAR thing DOES say "Teams have paid an average of $x per WAR in the most recent offseason free agent market." It's very natural to want to draw an equivalency of dollars to raw value, but it doesn't work specifically because the number ONLY applies to free agent dollars. In other words, the price paid is for marginal wins from entities that already have MOST of their total wins in the bank at substantially lower costs (in the form of controllable players, both pre-free agency and post-free agency players that outproduce their contracts). The actual dollar value per win in the MLB is way, way lower because of guys like Mike Trout or Jacob DeGrom. Additionally, the $/WAR model shows that the rate teams pay is NOT linear at all. As the yearly salary figure increases, the rate of return decreases -- players essentially give a "discount" on a per WAR basis in exchange for more years or just a lot of money anyway. The whole thing tends to top out around $30m no matter who we're talking about. 2. That John Danks put up a 1.8 fWAR season does not mean he is "a 1.8 fWAR pitcher." Good on him for having a great year and approximating a league average player in 2015, but as I pointed out before, that number is just one of a larger data set, and that larger data set points to him NOT repeating his success going forward. if i am reading this correctly, you are judging him based on what??? and if you are using anything to judge or compare him too, then you are using the realm of subject opinion following by a perception. ball players a judge on their yearly performance and can be use as a track record. but this whole thing has change due to his injury, surgery etc,....

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 06:26 PM) "The Hawks can only save $950,000 against the salary cap by sending Bickell to Rockford, and Dano makes $925,000, so the move is pretty much a wash in that regard." http://www.dailyherald.com/article/2015110...orts/151109857/ and that is the little math i knew i was screwing up on.... that was why i didn't put my foot in my mouth further. i was wrong.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 07:07 PM) Honestly, Panarin-Anisimov-Kane has outperformed Insert Player Here-Toews-Hossa. as a full line in comparison, with out a doubt, i agree. the hawks need someone who can take that lw....

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 06:23 PM) Yes it will because by sending him down only relieved 950K from the cap, so calling him back up and sending Dano down will be a 200K difference. without getting snarky here it is. as of today ~~ cap space - +39,040 ~~ dano down - 925,000 ~~ bickell up - 4.5 mil difference --- you tell me.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 05:38 PM) Just to zero in the IP/start thing, that's pretty much the new normal. I isolated the AL because the NL's pinch hitting tendencies would throw things off, and out of 97 pitchers who made at least 10 starts, the average length of a Danks start ranked 44th. Six innings per start isn't a rarity, but it's not a given. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 05:43 PM) 57th in IP. Less than 2 a team that were higher than him. this i didn't know. to both excellent use of the stats

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 04:23 PM) Disagree. Kane with Anisomov has taken his game to another level. Richards or Handzus were never the net front presence that AA has. Richards or Handzus never had the speed that AA has. I think Anisomov has better play making ability than both of them as well. AA is a true #2 center. Dano is 20 years old. It's kind of unfair that we expected that Dano would replace Saad's production right away. Teuvo struggled his first year. It happens. It's the potential and skill that Dano displayed last year with Columbus that we expected right away. Just didn't happen with a different and more complex system with the Hawks. With that said, I think Dano should get sent down and Bickell back up. Dano has no business being on the 4th line getting 5-6 minutes a night. Have him play on the 1st-2nd line in Rockford and get more acquainted with the system the Hawks play. i think alot of the arguments against my rant was in defense of what you just outline on dano ... but i will go on this counter, the second line was and is b/c of the resurgence of Kane and Panarin. they are the reason why that 2 line if doing fantastic. accept it that is the main reason. i agree with Dano, maybe a another yr in minors unless he too will ask for a trade. now the hawks have 4.5 mil on bickell and 3.3 on daley to get off the books. oh btw, asking bickell or stating that he needs to be brought up, it would not work with ref to salary cap. do the math.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 04:54 PM) The second line with Anisimov is one of the best in the game right now and hes a large part of it. you do make a good point, my question is more rhetorical in this sense. AA line and #2 line is all done by 2 key players, Kane and Panarin. now the question, would the hawks have had the success if another center was there??? does sacrificing the success of line 1 was worth the indecision of giving Saad and did the expectation of Dano was unrealistic..... yes to all.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 03:58 PM) Which is an outlier on his entire post-injury career: 0.3, 0.2, 0.5, 1.8 -- 2015 Steamer projection: 0.8 Neil Walker during the same period: 2.7, 2.6, 3.7, 2.4 -- 2016 Steamer projection: 2.6 Walker also makes half the money and they have the same one year of control. Those aren't even REMOTELY equivalent trade assets. you make an excellent counter but.... it all depends on the need of the team. do i expect the sox to give up on danks now, no, they need him to get the ball every 4th start or 5th. but if the sox needs waker more of a pressing need, i can see it being done, regardless of whether it make sense or not.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 03:11 PM) The Pirates would never do that. and for this discussion. i say they might and for these reasons. 1 yr of a solid pitching, not great but Danks did come on strong. 2. a yr of another pitcher putting up another 180 innings and keeping the team into the game for 3/4 of the games he pitches. 3. pirates needs to move him b/c of the prospect banging on the door to take over 4. salary of what, coming of the books in which they need to keep track on, worst than the sox's. 5. give a $$$ to off set the salary for a 1 yr stop gap. 6. give the impression that they are not giving up but getting a sp who can keep the games interesting. 7. low level prospects.... that is where i am stymied, i am lost here.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 03:33 PM) Ignoring the merits of Q/Schwarber, I'm very tired of the bolded characterization of pitcher value. Manny Machado had the most plate appearances in MLB last year with 713. Jose Quintana faced 862 batters. This "every 5th day" thing is misleading at best. yes i agree.... last yr the theory was to put shark before Q or so in the rotation, giving him the chance to pitch against their #2 or # 3 sp pitcher. remember that Q is underrated and that possibility on winning was even better. cmon, Schwarber??? what is the obsession with this guy. he may be a 1 hit wonder .... i just don't see it.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 03:24 PM) They've won three recently. 3 !!!! wow, that is even better.... i wonder where i was. i need to google it.

i really have a micro rant here.... i really hate this ... this time of not being able to make any player movement. i don't know if the league is waiting for the xmas holidays or SB is not calling anyone. now if i have to guess which, i would say, SB knows a trade is needed and there are a handful of teams who need to trade for and to get of a player. damn the hawks and their..... i don't know how to say this, but damn them for winning 2 SC's. now no team out there really wants to play nice -nice and help the hawks win possible another SC.

ok, i lied and i am admitting it. my friend wanted to see mockingjay and so i went to see. even thou i said i was not going to spend good money. agh.... it finally comes to an end. i was not impress. but at least the movie going fans who are a fan can have closure maybe it would have been much different if i didn't read the books, nah i still think is was way over acting. just my 2 1 cents.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 22, 2015 -> 07:18 PM) It doesn't work out one for one with Walker because of where each team is, but I could actually see the Pirates being willing to have some interest in Danks. They need to fill a rotation slot for 1 year because they're competitive right now and look down the road to having Glasnow and maybe Taillon taking spots in the next 2 years, they have some money available after retirements, and they could use a veteran left hander in their rotation alongside the guys they have. Plus, jumping leagues could help Danks have a better year too. Walker is a poor matchup in that deal because they'd want to use walker to get something useful, just been pondering that as a way to clear some money in a way maybe.... b/c as you said, a 1 yrs timeline. but not if the sox don't add $$$ and maybe a low level prospect. they are more restricted than most of any team out there. well maybe except for cincy.

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Nov 22, 2015 -> 06:56 PM) Every team goes through this, but apparently there is a real economic impact on the value of free agents in the NHL. The weak Canadian dollar is causing a plateau in the salary cap. As a result, it would appear potential free agents may be forced to sign with their own teams. http://www.startribune.com/nhl-short-takes/349149601/ i have heard that for a long time coming from the nhl sites. i don't believe it. what i believe is the fa's and the hard cap is a harsh reality and there is no loop holes to work around it. such as if the org made a bad signing, they can bury there mistake in the minors if they can't trade him. they can't take his salary off the team cap restrictions. as an example, bickell, they could send him and his 4.5 mil to rockford. however the hawks cap penalty will a 3.2 +/- cap hit while saving only 1.2 +/- .... can you imagine how much more the hawks can do with an additional 3.2 mil added to there cap??? some extra trades to help the team of fix this team?? now the team has to use its minor league system early. much earlier then Q would have.... but now that is another whole story on Q and his preferences to used experience players over young gifted talent.

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Nov 22, 2015 -> 03:29 PM) Make no mistake, we're not making two mutually exclusive arguments. Yes, Patrick Kane is getting paid market value, however he's still overpaid relative to his contemporaries, but that's all part of the deal. Great players are the most valuable on their bridge contract. The rest of your post is spot on. While everyone is so happy that Panarin is outpacing Saad and Sharp in their new homes, the fact is, the Blackhawks are out two solid forward pieces. The first line looks pretty weak post-Saad. There's no surprise Q is trying to shift the lines. i truly see your point but no matter what, i guess we will always disagree on this part. btw, excellent counter excellent post. really nice.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 22, 2015 -> 02:52 PM) What level do you guys think he will start at? I hope he carries it over and he can be up in our outfield sooner rather than later. When he is up, we can say that we have an Engel in the outfield. oh i am with you on this, i really hope the success he had at the AFL season carries over.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 22, 2015 -> 12:51 PM) I think when you have 1 position player left from 3 seasons ago, it is a rebuild. I don't think the semantics matter much, the fact is, except for pitchers, which almost universally the opinion is the White Sox do a decent job of developing, there is one player left since Hahn became the GM. I don't think they will stop trying to win now. It would be nice if a guy they developed actually was able to hit and field. Maybe it will happen. Maybe LaRoche is what they thought they signed in 2016. They will need some things to go right, but I don't see how they are any farther away than they were last year. several great points made. i will counter on one, re bold. i do not necessary agree with this thinking. you are using a timeline to make that call. this definition or calling it a rebuild vs a retool is sooo subjective. that is unless it if obvious, like in one off season or during a season, changing 50% of the starting lineup, then that is a rebuild. the trading of several players for prospects is not a rebuild but a retool . but that is my opinion, maybe i am way wrong on this.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Nov 21, 2015 -> 08:26 PM) Adam Engel - OF - White Sox White Sox outfielder Adam Engel was named Most Valuable Player of the Arizona Fall League. The 23-year-old, ranked as the 17th best prospect in the White Sox organization, hit a blistering .403 (27-for-67) with 12 extra-base hits and 10 stolen bases. He's expected to open the 2016 season at Double-A. Source: Phil Rogers on TwitterNov 21 - 2:59 PM and he richly deserves it.... the results and stats are the proof. i like it.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 22, 2015 -> 12:46 PM) Exactly. Avi Garcia is the second longest tenured position player on the team. here is a question i am still asking..... at what point is the difference of the term "blow up and retool"??? so the statement of blowing up when the sox got rid of 3 or 4 players is a blowing up or retooling???

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Nov 22, 2015 -> 04:29 AM) I would want an arm back. How tied are they to some of their young arms on the major league club? The only bats that I find intriguing in their system are the three guys that they just drafted (Bregman, Tucker and Cameron). I could see Moran being a 1-2 WAR player at a position of need for the Sox at third, so that would be a guy that you look at. the padre wanted 3 arms back at the deadline. so imo i think the sox can, if they wanted to trade him, get a really good arm a prospect outside the top 5 and 2 positional players, who are prospects.... one being moran-3b.

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Nov 22, 2015 -> 06:18 AM) Kane and Toews are overpaid (Bowman didn't have a choice, of course). No one player is valuable enough to make that kind of money, let alone two. They play 7 4th liners because that's all they can afford to pay. The real issue is, as great as Kane is, he is one guy who plays on one line. i totally disagree with all this esp the salary. they, kane and toews are getting paid what the market dictated. those two provide much more from a org point of view besides the on ice things. fans in the stand, the nucleus of the team, stability etc.... i will also say this on Seabrook contract. my problem with his contract is the length. SB saw the importance of these 3 players to the team and org. now this whole mess started from the FA and before the draft. not trading and high balling teams for sharp and bickell. yeah the hawk finally got rid of sharp but what did that bring??? ok, the lack of movement on bickell, he screwed that up really bad. then the Saad force trade, the #1 quasi power forward for line 1.... no matter what that really harm, the first line until they some how find a way to address that. but now the hawks are saddled with daley contract and bickell contract. my biggest complaint and it is coming true now, was dano, he was not experience to handle #1 winger. Toews and that line was going to suffer. some were arguing on dano talent. so what, the hawks needed the player now, not what he may develop into in the coming yrs. for those who will say that 2nd line would not be what it is without AA and the trade..... i disagree, it would not be what it is without Panarin, who was a complete unknown element until the season started. esp unknown when all the trades, drafting, players movement was happening.

just came back from catching "my all american" the person i was with she had tears and when the lights came on, so was many other movie goers. movie was great.... great actors who looks like they are going to have a nice career. Robin Tunney was the mother, she is still hot. i remembered her from the movie "Craft" Aaron Eckhart, i really don't like him as a character in any of his movies.... but he did a great job in this movie. saw some actual footage of the real kid and then look him on the internet. great love story.