LDF

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 05:23 PM) Jerry's recommendation is for his sons and the current ownership group to sell the team upon his death. damn, i did not know this, i was wondering if there was something in his will. wow, that will be sad, a passing of a legend. he did do a lot for the chi sports.

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 05:16 PM) The moves we've made this offseason were done on the backs of our cost controlled guys being in place and ready-now. Conor is one of those guys, so he's basically a definite as our 3b. And then Davidson is not forgotten either. 3b is set because it has to be. you got a point. the changes were made of the missing pieces that needed to be address. however one can dream.

QUOTE (CanOfCorn @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 03:35 AM) Wait...what? You think the commuter lines, exits and highways are going away? Or are you saying the Sox might want a different place then? If anything gets done...ever, my guess it will be a mixed use facility with the Bears to expand that stadium. Either near the lake or the some other large parcel of land on the near South Side. no but there may be new ownership or the same ownership with new faces in charge. jeeze you mean you can't figure this out. there are many things that can change.

i have been wondering about Chris Johnson from Atl. the braves are looking to move him. i wonder what the cost would be.

Avi needs to have a full yr playing in the majors. there can't be any way to determine how he would do with out a history.

QUOTE (buster @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 04:17 PM) I like what Hahn has done to date. But in my mind it is imperative that he pick up a solid fielding 3rd basement. I don't care if the guy is a .250 hitter. They have picked up enough bats so they can add a weak stick at 3rd base. They cannot go into this season with Connor at 3rd. If he is their day in day out 3rd baseman, his fielding will blow at least 8-10 games. welcome. at this point, the sox can live with Conor.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 09:33 PM) I saw Jake's "Are we really that good?" post that used Fangraphs projections to suggest we all tap the brakes on our excitement for the 2015 White Sox season. But rather than post in that thread and have this analysis lost, I decided it was worth starting my own post to articulate why I think the Sox should be much, much better after the offseason we've had so far. And, by the way, I don't think Rick Hahn or the Sox are near being "done" with the offseason. Sure, we can't expect more of the kind of major moves that we've seen. But we also can't expect the team brass to sit on its hands and think our team is complete. I'm going to do this comparison in descending order of impact. 1. THE BULLPEN Let's look at the saves, saves blown, and losses out of our bullpen in 2014. I'll start with the 4 guys who are almost certain to be back. Petricka 14 of 18, 1-6 record. 73 innings, 2.96 ERA Putnam 6 of 7, 5-3 record. 54.2 innings, 1.98 ERA Guerra 1 of 6, 2-4 record. 46.1 innings, 2.91 ERA Webb 0 of 2, 6-5 record. 67.2 innings, 3.99 ERA Next are two guys still on the 40-man, but who may not have roles. Surkamp 0 of 0, 2-0 record. 24.1 innings, 4.81 ERA Cleto 0 of 0, 0-1 record. 29.1 innings, 4.60 ERA Then here are the guys who are gone. Bellisario 8 of 12, 4-8 record. 66.1 innings, 5.56 ERA Lindstrom 6 of 10, 2-2 record. 34 innings, 5.03 ERA Downs 1 of 1, 0-2 record. 23.2 innings, 6.08 ERA Veal 0 of 0, 0-0 record, 6 innings, 7.50 ERA Thompson 0 of 0, 0-0 record, 5.1 innings 10.13 ERA Snodgrass 0 of 0, 0-0 record. 2.1 innings, 15.43 ERA Francisco 0 of 0, 0-0 record, 3.2 innings, 12.27 ERA Jones 0 of 1, 0-0 record. 0 innings, 2 hits, 4 runs. Bassit pitched 1 game in relief Noesi pitched 1 game in relief Carroll pitched 7 games in relief Rienzo pitched 7 games in relief Adam Dunn and Leury Garcia also pitched 1 inning each in relief with ERAs of 9 and 18, respectively. To replace them, we have added: Robertson, 39 of 44, 4-5 record. 64.1 innings, 3.08 ERA Duke, 0 of 4, 5-1 record. 58.2 innings, 2.45 ERA Jennings, 0 of 2, 0-2 record, 40.1 innings, 1.34 ERA Bullpen Analysis. We've eliminated 142 innings out of 10 guys (not counting Bassit, Noesi, Carroll and Rienzo, whose bullpen numbers I couldn't quickly isolate), and added back 3 guys who pitched 163.1 innings. The ERA of everyone who is out was over 5, and the highest ERA of anyone new is 3.08. The new guys were 39 of 50 in save opptys, with a 9-7 record. The gone guys were 15 of 24, with a 6-12 record. But you also change Petricka's role, with 4 blown saves and 6 losses, and Guerra is unlikely to get the chance to blow 5 saves and lose 4 games. I'm sure there are many ways of looking at this and quantifying it. But it seems to me that the Sox should be at least 8-12 games better in 2015 just by having a better bullpen. We've chucked 12 losses from guys with ERAs over 5 who pitched over 123 innings, and re-slotted guys who blew 9 saves and lost another 10 games because they weren't ready to close or finish games. That's 18 blown saves and 22 losses. In their place, we have guys who lost 7 games between them. We saw in 2014 the value of a great bullpen when KC and SF squared off in the World Series. The Sox pen is not likely to be that good, but it will be good enough to help us win a lot more games and help us contend. 2. JEFF SAMARDZIJA Here are the various starters we used last year who won't be back. Carroll, 19 starts, 106 IP, 4-10 as starter, 5.40 ERA Rienzo, 11 starts, 57.1 IP, 4-5 as starter, 5.97 ERA Bassitt, 5 starts, 28.2 IP, 1-1 as starter, 3.77 ERA Johnson, 5 starts, 23.2 IP, 1-1 as starter, 6.46. ERA Paulino, 4 starts, 18.1 IP, 0-2 as starter, 11.29 ERA Leesman, 1 start, 2.2 IP, 0-1 as starter, 20.25 ERA That's 6 guys who went 10-20, all except Bassitt with ERA's well over 5. Here are Jeff Samardzija's numbers. Samardzija, 33 starts, 219.2 IP, 7-13 as starter (2-7 with Cubs), 2.99 ERA So, we are replacing 46 starts with 33 starts. But Sale only had 26, and Nieto 27, so that gives you another 13 starts if they get to 33 each. The ERA goes from over 5 for everyone but Bassitt, to around 3 for Samardzija, less for that for Sale, and around 4.4 for Nieto. We aren't carrying 20 losses. And instead of facing #2 starters, Quintana now slots in against #3 starters, which should improve his W-L record. This could be another 7-10 game swing. We'll still need some depth because we can't expect perfect health from all 5 starters, but we aren't going to be trotting out Carroll and Rienzo for 30 starts next year. If Samardzija goes 15-8 instead of their 8-15, that’s 7 games in the standings. 3. A REAL #2 HITTER Here's how our #2 hitters fared last year. Beckham 269 AB, .223, .277, .342. Ramirez 203 AB, .251, .280, .392. Semiem 116 AB, .198, .262, .319. Gillaspie had 23 ABs at #2, L. Garcia had 17, but I'm not counting them. For the top 3 guys, that's 582 ABs in the #2 hole. None of them managed to get on even 30% of the time. Pathetic. Here's Melky Cabrera's stat line last year in the #2 hole. Cabrera 455 AB, .288, .343, .440. He also had 74 ABs leading off, and 48 hitting 3rd. In both places, he posted better numbers. But if you add them in, that’s 577 ABs for Cabrera, almost exactly the number for our 3 guys. Having a real #2 hitter will not only help Adam Eaton and anyone else on base ahead of him, but it will certainly give Jose Abreu and those behind him more RBI opptys with men on base. Over the course of 600 plate appearances, an OBP of around .275 gives you 165 times on base, and 435 outs. An OBP of .343 gets you 206 times on base, and 394 outs. Clearly, Melky Cabrera is going to help the Sox offense significantly. Also, Ramirez was .273, .305, .408, so he hit much better elsewhere in the lineup. Indeed, in limited action, he raked when hitting #7 or #8, which is closer to where he'll hit next year. This is just an added bonus. I'm not going to quantify the number of wins we might gain here, but clearly a more productive offense will give our improved bullpen the chance to save more games. 4. LaRoche v. Dunn and Konerko Here's Dunn's and Konerko's stat lines from last year with Chicago. Dunn. 106 games, 363 ABs, 20 HRs, 54 RBI, 65 BB, 132 Ks, .220, .340, .433. Konerko. 81 games, 208 ABs, 5 HRs, 22 RBI, 10 BB, 51 Ks .207, .254, .317 Here's Adam LaRoche's numbers from last year. LaRoche. 140 games, 494 ABs, 26 HRs, 92 RBI, 82 BB, 108 Ks .259, .362, .455 And this is with LaRoche getting 137 ABs against lefties, where he posts a .204, .284, .336 line. Clearly, LaRoche is going to provide much better protection for Abreu, even if the Sox don't have a great platoon partner for him. If the Sox get someone who can rake against lefties, this slot will be vastly improbed. We're also looking at a dramatic drop in the K rate. I have no estimate for how many extra wins this will get us, but it will be a significant boost to the offense. 5. Better D This is a bonus 5th reason, but I'm not going to run any stats here. Let's just say having Melky in LF is much better than having Viciedo out there. We should also be better at 1B when LaRoche takes the field. The Sox have more work to do on the defensive side, but they will be better. Conclusion I've taken no account of the kind of stats you stat geeks love, so I'm sure I'll be ripped by some, if not many, for my "analysis." That's fine with me. I'll stand by my conclusions. A team with 7 bullpen pitchers with ERAs around 3 or below (only Webb is higher) is going to be WAY better than one with lots if 5+ ERA guys who blow saves and lose games. And it's going to make a MASSIVE difference in the W-L record of the 2015 Sox. Similarly, putting a high-quality #2 guy in for a bunch of 5+ ERA scrubs, and slotting down last year's #2 to #3 is going to help the Sox win a lot more games. On the offensive side, we had to had one of the worst combos of #2 hitters in baseball last year, and now have one of the better ones. So the guy in front of Jose Abreu is going to be tons better. Ditto for the guy behind Abreu. We also move Alexei down in the order where he hit much better last year. It's possible I'm double counting the win improvements from the pen and Samardzija, but overall, I'd say 15 more victories, from 73-88, should be what we should expect from these changes. And there's every likelihood the Sox aren't done and will keep working on the bench to get a better defensive 4th outfielder, right handed platoon options for Gillaspie and LaRoche, and maybe even an upgrade at 2B. The Sox just signed Brad Penny on a minor league deal, so you know they are trying to build depth into the rotation. I think we'll be contenders in 2015. GO SOX!!! you can tell that you thought long and hard on this, well done. great job.

i just got back from a double feature at the movies with my family. i owe them that, i normally goes to the the movie once a week, but i been slammed at work since early Nov. they wanted to watch Mockingjay, but i read the books and well i will it at that. i saw Exodus, wow a whole new perceptive on the Ten Commandments. i still don't know. i am still stun from the movie. i don't know if i like it or not. saw the sneak preview of the Hobbit. the theater was packed. they had 5 screens for this. it was much better than all of Hobbits. They really embellish it and took a lot of liberties from the books. but it was well worth it.

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 07:07 AM) I agree with you in regards to Melky. I know that there have been other players on the team with PEDS but guys like Q took their punishment, but Melky make a fake website to save his ass and I dont like that. I really didn't want the team to sign him and I still don't like the move. and so did Melky. the rules were broken and he paid the piper. there is no degrees of of breaking the rules, 1 infraction 1 punishment.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 12:15 AM) Thanks for the warm welcome guys. I can't wait for the season to start. What an offseason. and remember 1 important piece of info. we all have a warped sense of humor.

all this predictions are music to my ears.....

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 12:24 AM) I don't see the Sox as a World Series contending team as this point, but they are definitely in contention for the division. Detroit didn't get any better and KC won't be as good as they were last year. I see the Sox and KC fighting for 1st place next season. alot of things can happen between the opening day and till the end of the season. it is going to be a great fight. i can't wait to enjoy the season.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 12:11 AM) Doesn't feel like the right time. Tanaka was a situation where you had a potential ace at age 25 or 26...in the prime of his career, like Abreu. With Scherzer, it almost feels guaranteed you'll see an injury or drop-off sooner rather than later. It's just too big a risk, we've seen how the Dunn and Danks contracts alone have handicapped this franchise for the past couple of seasons. As mentioned, with everyone we've brought on, other than Robertson, those risks are limited to a 2-3 year window, which is the prudent thing to do. Best guess is the FO thinking has to be to get to June/July and then the "all-in" move will come at that time to try to make a push for the playoffs/World Series in 2015 if everything breaks right. That would give us another 3-4 months to assess where all of our top prospects are....how Rodon's adjusting....and how guys like Gillaspie, A.Garcia, Flowers and whoever's playing 2B are adjusting. Depending on our place in the standings, you start thinking about who you want to hold onto for 2016 and who you want to trade. That seems a lot more prudent move to make than putting all your eggs in one basket. I haven't done the exact math, but if you add up Duke/LaRoche/Robertson/Samardzija/Me.Cabrera you're still not even touching the overall package of what Scherzer will receive. I have my doubts that someone can argue that Scherzer would/will make more of an impact individually than all of those players collectively. If it was a year ago and Max looked like one of the top 3-5 pitchers in baseball, you could at least make an argument. That time has passed, where you're paying for 2012-13 Scherzer but not getting that same pitcher back for your investment. i have been thinking about Scherzer, but at what cost?? i do not want the sox to be handcuff with a huge contract. at least 6 yrs and knowing his agent, try something like 30 mil a yr. too much. i have been mentioning about getting Cueto, Leake, Zimmerman. the sox can get to trade some of their 2nd tier prospects that they have.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 12:06 AM) Hey guys, I just wanted to introduce myself. My name is Mike, and I am a huge White Sox fan. Paul Konerko and Jim Thome are my favorite players. I didn't even know this forum existed until now. Well, I am very happy to be here and talk White Sox baseball with everyone. Thanks for reading and I hope I get to know you guys better. welcome to the best and inform group of posters. let your hair down and enjoy the ride.

QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 06:50 PM) Dear Santa Hahn, I know that Christmas is your busy time of year, and that you've been so generous with we Sox fans in answering all of our wishes, but I have one final request: Please sign Jed Lowrie to an incentive-laden, one-year deal. He is relatively young (30), plays an outstanding 2B (6.0 UZR), and is an excellent buy low candidate given his below average BABIP (.281). A one-year deal allows Sanchez and Johnson another year to develop (they need it), and compensates for our relative offensive weaknesses at 3B and C. That being said, I realize that I am both greedy and just a Clown, so I will STFU and let you weave your magic. With Love, AtC hey rick how bout thinking hard on Zimmerman - sp - wash as a pickup.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 11:05 PM) It's a macro-level frame of reference, based on the most likely outcome, but I wouldn't call it pretty damn accurate. It's accurate in the sense that the system will produce 1,000 WARs in a season, and there will be a large subset of players producing around their most likely outcome, but like you mention there will be outliers, and major ones at that, it happens more than the system would expect to. Every year, there are a fair number of likes of Ben Zobrist, Josh Donaldson, Josh Harrison, Michael Brantley, Corey Kluber that comes along and completely skews the curve, and Clayton Kershaw or Mike Trout have that potential to beat their projection by a lot, even though they are projected to be amongst the best. The projection system lacks the visibility to see those breakouts. At the end of the year, the difference in total WAR value between the best team and the worst team will be a lot greater than 10, because the number of minor/major positive outliers on a team does not equal to its minor/major negative outliers. I think the Sox would be one of those teams that will have more positive outliers than negative ones. ref to fangraph. if you don't mind using this, but cmon, the writer in the second paragraph said the sox is not ready to win. not ready to win, what or when is any team ready to win. the sox have made huge improvement and if all goes well, esp in the beginning of the season, the sox can do extremely well.

QUOTE (shipps @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 10:18 PM) This reads as complete satire. but i like his optimism.

QUOTE (ewokpelts @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 11:15 PM) Where else will you have the infrastructure of THREE commuter rail lines, one major expressway with three exits servicing the park, as well as 7000 parking spaces? the yr now is 2014 and you are talking about when, 2020-2025. cmon think about it, things change.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 09:26 PM) Again, there is zero way to even guess where they might find land for it in 2029. Who knows. Neighborhoods can be come ghost towns, large factory properties close, etc. At any given time there are large lots out there. I mean right now, even in relatively desirable areas, you've got the massive Finkle Steel plant property in Lincoln Park opening up. There's a large lot along the Chicago River next to Elston just south of Division. The list goes on. There is just no guessing right now, and there is certainly a chance the changed ownership group may have very different ideas of how to grow by that time. they the sox group will find those places as a great location. you know, maybe a suburb.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 06:51 PM) That I'm not so sure of. But really, such an event is probably decades in the future, so it is difficult to even begin to predict what neighborhoods, property prices, etc. will look like at that time. People often forget this, but neighborhoods change, sometimes dramatically, in periods that long. i agree, whether it is going to be headed by JR family or not, i think the sox learned that the present site is killing the location for fans ease of attending the games.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 09:52 PM) Full season renewed. We've been season holders since 2004. Still front row UD, above home plate, 3B side. Our group usually sells about half our tickets, some on Stub Hub and others to friends (face value for those). We try to break even on the games we don't go to. Usually we do, but the last few seasons we have been short about $50-$100 per seat (our discount on the games we go to offsets that though). I'm thinking this year we'll break even easily. does JR still have his parties for season ticket holders? it was great, i met a really young celebrity, he was nervous about how he would do. his name is Pat Foley.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 06:30 PM) 2 war for Rodon would be putting up Bucholtz or Ordoizzi numbers. I think he can do that. i really can't see that from a rookie coming in. too much pressure on him.

QUOTE (AlSoxfan @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 06:04 PM) That negative is killing me oh i agree..

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 05:43 PM) I think there are a lot of teams better than the Sox. We have two guys who are 5th starters in our rotation and not even good 5th starters at that. I don't mind Noesi cause of his price but current rotation, while strong at the top, has signifcant flaws in the back end. Bullpen has improved but is still going to need young players to step up and take greater roles and play better than they did a year ago. But most importantly...our team defense is atrocious. That is what really irks me about this whole thing...we have done nothing to improve our defense. PS: Micah Johnson will be starting by the mid-point of the season yet Leury is projected for WAR. Just want to point out that It would be stunning if Micah isn't contributing somewhere. I still think the Sox are going to look for an upgrade in the rotation and would agree with general sentiment that they aren't necessarily happy at 3B / C and would expect them to be looking and willing to deal young prospects if they can find a cost-controlled piece, preferably one who is a good defensive player as well. i rather not take the chance of letting our #4-5 compete let alone do ok in a playoff push. i would also like to add, i definitely do not like to trust lady luck on C. Rodon doing great. so i still advocate trading some of the prospect for a another SP like J Cueto - reds.

QUOTE (Jake @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 05:21 PM) The hardest thing about looking at the projections is keeping in mind that if you're comparing a player only to himself, he usually looks bad because the projection system tries to account for all possibilities. And given that some amount of the time, every player will get hurt, a lot of guys have lowered projection totals because it has to account for the possibility of injury. This is part of the reason why every pitcher seems to have a lower WAR projection - nobody is getting projected to throw 250 IP like Kluber threw last year. And FWIW, WAR is definitely the best way to think about this. There is a stat called BaseRuns which is overall better for projecting record, but not as useful for finding weak spots on the team. Either way, you want to be able to account for all phases of the game in a way that is better than going, "Hmm...we're pretty good at this, not so good at that, really good at that other thing...we're good." My main takeaways were: -Abreu, Eaton, Avisail have more to prove -Gillaspie, Flowers, and everyone at 2B still need to prove that they are even starting-caliber MLB guys -Quintana's projection is absurdly low, IMO -The back end of the rotation could feasibly come back and bite us -Melky and LaRoche weren't exactly cost-efficient upgrades So the key in projecting us in a more subjective way is deciding whether we have a decent option for 2B, what we can reasonably expect from our stars (1B/CF/RF/SS), and if our marginal guys won't kill us (C/3B). Interestingly enough, I don't think there's a lot of intrigue with the pitching staff. what a great analysis and spot on esp on the C / 3b, i think i will add 2b as well.