maggsmaggs

QUOTE (oldsox @ May 4, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) Then why isn't anyone else in that conference hitting like that? http://ovcsports.com/custompages/stats/bas...014/lgplyrs.htm Actually others are.

It is interesting to look at the Cubs top prospects performances this year: Baez: Terrible Bryant: Terrific Almora: Bad Edwards: Good but seems like major health issues Soler: Injured Alcantara: Decent but terrible peripherals Johnson: OK, but some command issues Vizcaino: Good but just a bullpen arm Candelario: Ok Vogelbach: Bad Just shows the fickle nature of prospects and was interesting considering the various degrees of performance from our own prospects. But you have one having two guys having great years, some ok performances and then some terrible ones.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 3, 2014 -> 05:30 PM) 2/3 of the major league OF is on the disabled list. Shouldn't you be stressing about that? That's an injury problem not a talent problem. Fully healthy, we have a very capable outfield of Abreu-Eaton-Garcia. On the rotation side, we have two sure things in Sale/Quintana. Everything else is a question mark. Plus, there is no OF in the draft worthy of a top-three selection.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 3, 2014 -> 12:19 PM) The point is without that draft, we have none of those guys. You don't just punt on an entire draft, especially in the situation the Sox are in. For everyone who thinks underspending on the draft is bad, this is WAY worse. And so what if we had none of those guys? Our organization wouldn't be any worse. You can sign any one of the players you mentioned for cheap in free agency because they are replacement players. You can't sign a potential front-of-the-rotation player like Rodon for cheap in free agency.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 3, 2014 -> 12:11 PM) David Holmberg was traded for Edwin Jackson. Edwin Jackson was turned into Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart. Jason Frasor was turned into Daniel Webb and Miles Jaye. And everyone you have listed is a completely replaceable player. Webb has the best shot of being more than replaceable.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 3, 2014 -> 09:02 AM) History isn't comparing anything. It is acknowledgement of the fact that this has NEVER been done in all of MLB history. The next question is WHY. Because the bonus caps have existed for two years. It is a brand new system. We haven't had an agent try to test the system in the way Boras might try to do with Rodon if he slips to third overall. Last year, he had Appel and Bryant who went 1-2. This year, Boras wants 1-1 money for Rodon likely who might be going third overall.

QUOTE (ptatc @ May 2, 2014 -> 02:55 PM) The downside of this is what if he doesn't make the mlb. Then you have a draft with nothing. If you have more higher quality picks throughout the draft theoreticlly you have a better chance of getting an MLBer out of it. I'm not saying which is the better option just that here is risk and reward with each option and which one do you chose. This is why I do not make the kind of money they do. All I know is look at most of the White Sox's drafts in the past. We have received nothing from a lot of them. The projected WAR of the top player in the Draft is higher than the aggregate projected WAR from a team's Round 2 picks through Round 10.

From Baseball America Prospect Hot Sheet chat:

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 2, 2014 -> 10:32 AM) We aren't talking about a "few draft dollars" here. If the guy makes a massive demand, the franchise is literally making the choice between signing him, and basically giving up on signing most of your top 10 draft picks, along with zero overslot signings. Honestly, if you look at the expected production of players outside Round 1 relative to the player selected at third overall (and especially if you consider him No. 1 on your Prospect Board), putting all your eggs in one basket might be the best strategy.

Also, I think it should be noted with as smart and thoughtful Rick Hahn is when speaking, I don't think he would publicly talk about Rodon being the best college pitcher if they were averse taking him. Wouldn't make sense to bypass the guy you have stated it the best college pitcher. For that reason, I don't think the Boras factor is as ominous as some believe. Plus, the Boras factor has become less and less relevant under the new Draft rules.

Micah thus far: 1-1, BB. Ho hum.

Keith Law stated on Buster Olney's podcast (today's edition) that he thinks the White Sox will select Erick Fedde with the third pick right now. Said Hoffman's elbow pain is worrisome and will cause him to drop. That would be an ultra disappointing selection. Law did not say it with any sort of confidence, however. But I can understand Hoffman over Rodon if the medicals check out on Hoffman, but Fedde over Rodon would be disappointing.

Ravelo 1-2 and 2 BBs. Just raking.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 01:04 PM) http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-wa...lo-and-simmons/ Unapologetic Ravelo lover Nathaniel Stolz gets to brag a bit. He is a believer in his defense at 3B as well. He's been at first for awhile now, I don't really know how Stoltz can make that call about his D at 3rd. As mentioned by someone else, if he could have stayed at 3rd, he wouldn't be at first.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 07:15 AM) Good use of "belittles" though. Jeff Hoffman (Photo by Carl Kline). • East Carolina righthander Jeff Hoffman was shut down for 8-10 days, coach Billy Godwin announced Thursday. “He said that he had mild arm soreness Thursday in his bullpen,” Godwin said. “We had the team orthopedic look at him. We are erring on the side of caution here and you can understand why. We just felt that 8-10 days would be good for him to have off.” Hoffman was coming off his best start of the season in which he struck out 16. He is likely to make his next start on May 9 at Southern Mississippi and will have one more regular season start at home against Texas-Arlington. www.baseballamerica.com Seems like East Carolina (who is a fighting for an NCAA Tournament position) is handling Hoffman way better than NC State and Rodon. Whereas Rodon is throwing 130-plus pitches every time out, East Carolina knows Hoffman's future is too handle him haphazardly.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 02:08 PM) The MLBPA is also a lot stronger than both of those two. Nothing that will improve value can be found, but all sorts of bad can happen. Plus, because players can be drafted and then choose not to sign, it can be damaging to the person. If a team gives a high schooler a physical and it turns out that he has a torn labrum, why would Long Beach State (or whoever) leave their scholarship on the table? Same goes for a college junior or draft eligible sophomore too. I'm reminded of the Barret Loux situation where he was drafted 6th overall and then that exact situation came up, and the DBacks no longer wanted to sign him to his allocated value. You can be sure the scouts are all over Hoffman's coaches/Hoffman/his advisor to get the most accurate info about the injury. It's a double-edged sword. On the one hand, full disclosure can help keep Hoffman's stock strong (if the injury in benign). On the other hand, if it's serious, full disclosure would harm him.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 11:19 AM) It is pretty amazing how similar his numbers are to Erik Johnson, at about 28 times the cost. Johnson 23.2IP 6.46ERA 27 hits 15 BB 18K 1.775WHIP 1HR 5.7 BB/9 1.2 K/BB Jimenez 27.1IP 6.59ERA 33 hits 17 BB 21K 1.829WHIP 5HR 5.6 BB/9 1.24 K/BB Except one has been a 3.0-plus WAR pitcher in five of the last six years. Much easier to say Jimenez is just in a funk and will come out of than Johnson who has no Major League track record.

Ravelo may be able to move to LF, allowing Viciedo to play DH.

I know Keenyn had been struggling this year, but I looked at his stats this morning and was just terrified at what I saw. .132 AVG., .179 OBP, .170 SLG, .348 OPS, 1 extra-base hit and a 3/26 BB-to-K ratio. It really sucks that it's the beginning of 2014 and we can pretty much write off our first-round (supplementary) selection from 2011. In the beginning of his career, you thought that maybe he could be a decent lead-off hitter with his solid on-base skills. But even the good walk rate is gone for this guy. OUCH. Thank gosh for Chris Sale. Otherwise, we had have nothing to show from any of our first-round selections since 1998 (not including Gio since he did not make an impact with us).

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Apr 26, 2014 -> 11:04 PM) Andrew Mitchell walked 5 in 6 innings in an otherwise good start: 6 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 7 SO, 1 WP Ugly 7.64 BB/9 on the year (15 BB in 17.2 IP). I guess the walk-thing is contagious. Spilling into the minor league players as well.

To me, it's the same fascination some have with Sox minor league relievers who post spectacular numbers at 26 in AA ball (Remenowsky, Kussmaul, etc.). They are non-prospects and have very little chance of becoming Major League contributors. There's generally a reason they are in the mid-20s and in High-A or AA.

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Apr 24, 2014 -> 10:26 AM) Still not totally sure how serious the Hoffman soreness is, but I would agree. Hope Rodon goes 1-1 which sets us up nicely for Aiken or Kolek. At this point, I think Aiken-Kolek are going 1-2. Hopefully the Hoffman stuff is not serious because then our choice is super difficult. But as of right now, we just know Hoffman has "arm" soreness. That is extremely vague. Is it the elbow? Shoulder? Some sort of bicep tendonitis? It can be a wide variety of things and thus, a wide variety of ominousness. There is no such thing as good arm soreness, but let's wait and see what the exact injury is. East Carolina is a borderline NCAA Tournament team, so they really could use Hoffman's starts. Not sure what that says about the extent of the injury, probably means it is more than nothing though.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 23, 2014 -> 09:09 PM) Real shame the Sox didn't pick up Giolito. Particularly considering their penchant lately for taking pitchers (and with success) whom other teams saw as too risky or flawed (Sale, Danish). I remember reading Robin saying there was no way he'd fall to the Sox at 13. It is just hard to give a kid $3 million knowing he needs TJ surgery. Coupled with the risk of high school pitchers already, it is not hard to see why he slid and why the Sox did not choose him.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Apr 24, 2014 -> 08:23 AM) When is a zero strikeout game still awesome? When it's Tyler f***in' Danish. The guy is just plain different, and you have to look at the numbers more closely to fully appreciate. In yesterday's 6 innings the four hits were all ground ball singles. 2 balls in total reached the outfield in the air, both flyouts. He allowed 1 line drive. All the rest were groundouts/popouts. For the season's 20IP, he's allowed 14 singles, 3 2B, 1 3B and 0 HR - 23 total bases for a slugging % against of .284. He's an extreme groundballer, running at 69% currently, coupled with an insanely low 10% LD rate. Because of this, most of the hits he allows are, and will be, singles, and those fortunate souls will be moving station-to-station. No one has even attempted a SB against his quick delivery, and he puts himself in excellent defensive position on the mound. He has 1 WP and 0 HBP. HR's will be few - only 17% of his occasional fly balls allowed have been pulled. Other metrics indicate has plenty of swing and miss in his repertoire when he needs it, but they have him on a low pitch count, so I believe he's emphasizing his GB tendencies to maximize the innings he can go. Yes, the sample sizes are tiny at this juncture, but I won't be shocked by anything this kid does. Better IF defense behind him at the higher levels and in MLB should only help him as he advances. I vehemently disagree with some of the conservative estimates of his ceiling. This guy has few, if any, comps, and his ceiling will depend only on his health, imo. Terrific analysis.

Have to love that Trayce has really improved his contact rate while increasing his walk rate. While he has not shown a ton of power this year, we know that will come. But he's a very quality defensive player and now is showing a very solid eye at the plate. Micah is just a stud. Hopefully both these guys continue to develop and are major-league ready for next year. Many people might disagree with this statement, but I feel like Micah is as good a player as Billy Hamilton. He just has not been hyped up as much. Numbers are not that far off.