Chisoxfn

QUOTE (chw42 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 05:05 PM) It's $499 off-contract right now. I bet it'll drop to around $400 or maybe even $350 come thanksgiving. MotoX has been at 299 with various promotional codes a few different times.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 04:12 PM) You're definitely right, OPS and OPS+ do not take those into account. However, they are factored in, in exactly the way you keep asking for, into WAR. This part is simply untrue. Went to Baseball Reference's page and just found how they define it: They do exactly what I thought they would do, they calculate how the probability of scoring changes depending on how the player moves between bases and compare it to the number of outs made on the bases. They consider 39 different scenarios by my count. You replied before I completed some edits. The formula they use does not really do the adjustment you talk about, the way the formula is calculated it is highly dependent on the production of the players behind them and how often they actually score, which can be inherently flawed because someone with great speed and a good baserunner could have had poor hitters behind him and thus never scored many runs where another guy could have had a plus player behind him and even though he was slow as molasses he scored at a higher percentage because the guys behind him were very productive. That is an extremely limited view they are applying. Edit: Also, upon second read, what I read for wRAA was based upon what Fangraphs had indicated which did not factor on 1st to 3rd, etc. So it appears a difference between fangraphs and BR and I'd say BR's version is better. All that said, it would also go on to explain why Dunn has such a crappy WAR. The pure offensive metrics like OPS+, OPS, Wrc do not factor in the aspects and thus his value is overly inflated vs. what is being utilized in the WAR calculation and it is why you see the overall disconnect between a guy who was actually lousy vs. this so called productivity based upon Wrc.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 03:11 PM) Without going into too many details, this is sort of the key phrase, and actually this should actually be very easy to account for statistically. There is a probability of a runner scoring by being stuck on first and a probability of him scoring if he's advanced to second. The value of a ball put in play is that it can change that probability. That means you weight the strikeouts leaving the runner at 1b against the added value of the guy getting to 2nd. I don't see any reason why a solid mathematical treatment wouldn't have done this already. Pay me for a couple days to do nothing else and I'd have a rudimentary version of it. Is there a solid literature statement somewhere saying explicitly that this is not included in modern understanding of offensive production? Similarly, you refer to the value of a guy who is able to take 2nd. This is almost certainly included in models of production these days under the "base running" category. Guys like Konerko and Dunn are hugely downgraded on that because when they get to 1b they aren't able to score on a double and that costs runs. To calculate that, you figure out things like "the fraction of times a double was hit where this guy scored" and details like that. It's not fast and easy but with a full season's worth of data and enough time (aka, pay me a lot of money to sit at Excel for a couple weeks) we could have a really good model of this. That last part may or may not go into "RC+", I cannot say for sure, but it definitely gets included in the full WAR calculations. Look into the detailed components that go into those calculations, in no way shape or form do I see anything being applied that would negate for the speed factor of a player and thus adjustments that should be made to the run coefficient based upon speed tools nor is there an adjustment / factor for strikeout to out at least not that is defined. And the first variable would be extremely difficult to actually figure out as you can't just use pure speed times as there are many aspects that go into baserunning from jumps to secondary leads to just being a good runner. OPS and OPS+ certainly don't factor in those components either. Bottom line, for the various reasons I listed, I think the value applied to Dunn's OBP and the lack of negative on the strikeouts, are just two aspects that should be negatively factored into some of these advanced stats that seem to still show him being "productive". I'd also tell you I could cherry pick anything and come up with productivity and that is why you have to consider many things and that is why you can't be a GM from behind a computer, you actually have to apply logic and consider numerous factors when making decisions. Also, my understanding of WAR is that the baserunning component is based on stolen bases, which is only one aspect / component of baserunning. I think they have some other component in but I've never seen any specifics as to what drives it and I think it is some sort of factor on how likely the run is to score, however, that is likely a flawed metric as it would be very much dependent on the players behind you (at least in terms of an individualistic stat). I'd also point out that by WAR, Adam Dunn was not a very good player with the Sox (Total WAR of -1.5 over 4 seasons (including his time with A's...pretty pathetic or an average WAR of -.375 per season). Factor in the contract and that is an absurdly bad level of production. WRC does not factor in base running adjustments and is really just a variant of Weighted on base percentage (at least not that I am aware of) nor does it factor in the value of an out vs. a strikeout being discussed, which again, as I point out, would inflate Adam Dunns production under that metric. WAR at least takes into account certain measures, albeit still limited.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 02:40 PM) The intention walk is up there with the extra point in football. They are 99.99 percent automatic. Is that 0.01% worth it? Who knows. The things I don't like on that list are the ones dealing with the pitcher talking to the catcher and vice versa. I think you can achieve most of what needs to be achieved by keeping batters in the box, and pitchers getting the ball and throwing it. I was thinking that rule applied to coaches, didn't realize it applied to catchers. I think that is a bad rule because the communication becomes so key. I guess from another perspective, by limiting it, you really bring additional strategy into the game (kind of like with other leagues and the concept of a "timeout").

QUOTE (chw42 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 11:08 AM) You can always get a Nexus 5. It's still cheap and works perfectly fine. It should get Android updates for at least one more year. It's looking unlikely that there's going to be a smaller Nexus this year, but no one truly knows yet. Eh...not that interested in getting a 1 yr old phone, unless they drop the price more after the new one comes out.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 02:37 PM) I have a sentimental attachment to the intentional walk simply because you have to make the guy throw intentional balls. Craziness usually does not ensue, but can on occasion and that's the fun part of the game. Otherwise, I love everything else. I figured if there was anything, that would be one purists (and I consider myself a purist) would react to, but to be frank, in this day and age, I don't want my teams pitcher throwing any extra pitches, even low stress ones like that. I say give the walk and move on, the time spent to throw the 4 pitches, etc, for the extremely minimal chances of something crazy, just isn't worth the time, given what I feel is a significant issue MLB has to fix.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 02:25 PM) Nobody has ever said it is, but a walk is also better than making an out. There's no point in arguing this anymore, we know how everyone feels, Adam Dunn is retired, and we will probably never see a player quite like him ever again. I just get upset when people say that Adam Dunn was "horrible" or he "was not productive" when all the numbers we have on record indicate these descriptors are incorrect. Nobody is saying he was good; I (or we) are saying he was a productive hitter who was incredibly flawed. A player with his line has a spot in the 6th or 7th spot in a really good lineup, but depending upon him for run production or to be your cleanup hitter is a mistake. I would tell you that in my opinion the numbers you put out are meaningless and other numbers can't outweigh his overall inability to hit. Case closed. You will not win many games when you have such boom / bust players on your roster. Lets say you had a pitcher who ever 3rd game was amazing and the other 2 games sucked (and this would be by hitters standards, thus negating the fact that a hitter that gets a hit 30 % of the time is pretty good). You'd have a pretty bad team. I'd also argue OBP of certain players is more valuable then other players. A high OBP for a guy who is a top of the order has better value then an OBP guy (or put another way a guy whose OBP is driven largely off walks vs. average) later in the order (yes, both get credit for OBP and to an extent it is a control of where you are playing, but again, you are in a position where early in the order your OBP is more valuable then later in the order per say where there are less run producers behind you). I'd also tell you that fundamentally OBP is better for guys who can run then guys who can't. Higher probability of the walk turning into a run when you have a guy that can take an extra base, steal an extra base, go 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, etc vs. that of a station to station player. I don't believe any of these aspects are accounted for in Wrc (yes, maybe steals are indirectly accounted for but not all OBP is created equal and that is an inherent flaw). Now I realize those are meant to be standalone statistics so I can buy the where you hit in the lineup piece and players behind you cause that is out of your control but the speed aspect is not). I am all for advanced stats but people look at Dunn and point too blindly to this Wrc and other aspects. I'm sorry, I think those statistics are overstating his value significantly. I'd also continue to say that statisticians don't have it right that a strikeout is the same as an out. In an out, runners can advance, runners can be sacrificed in, etc. Now they can also hit into a DP which negates some of those components but statistically I still believe that a strikeout is worse then a contact out. Again, I don't believe models account for these variables and again, this overstates Dunn's value. I'm sorry, under zero circumstances was Dunn a good player and that was further evidenced by the fact that almost nobody that was in contention, including some teams who could have used a power bat off the bench at a minimum, were all that interested in Dunn, despite Sox willingness to pay some money and fact he wasn't owed that much (especially since, as you put it, he was productive).

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 01:01 PM) http://deadspin.com/baseball-will-test-out...e-ga-1641283166 All of those are fantastic.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 12:48 PM) I think that's a very narrow and shallow way of looking at it. Hitters come in all sizes, shapes, and forms, and just because a guy does his damage in a way you do not find preferable does not mean he is not a productive hitter. There are absolutely huge, glaring flaws in a style such as Dunn's, but to say he's a bad hitter almost solely based on the fact that he hit for a low average is wrong. Simply by being able to work counts and draw walks, Adam Dunn goes from being an unproductive, valueless hitter to someone who can at least keep the lineup churning. I'd much rather have Dunn DH than Dayan Viciedo. One lesser pile of crap doesn't make the other one crap. Both are not middle of the order hitters on contending teams. At least Viciedo is young with good bat speed but his complete and utter lack of OBP is horrendous but OBP in and of isn't the same. A walk is not as good as a single. Don't care how many people will disagree, it isn't.

What are they?

The good news is, normally that weight comes back on pretty quick but I'm sure he lost a lot of strength and conditioning as a result. Hopefully he can get a limited role this Sunday and be back the following week full time.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 11:53 AM) I think anybody saying that Adam Dunn was a horrible hitter for the White Sox is completely mistaken, but he definitely didn't live up to lofty expectations. He was a horrible hitter one year and about exactly what you could expect out of him the other 3. I wish him well, hopefully he keeps winning Oscars. No. I think you can't ignore certain stats and he was atrocious. Not enough makeup in the world, or in this case, HR's, made up for the fact that Adam Dunn was a very bad hitter.

I enjoy the strain on FX.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 08:57 AM) Shhh They did run a whole lot though. It was one awesome game though. Great to see Royals advance. They are playing the Angels, who I'll be pulling for, but if the Angels lose to KC, I hope the Royals win the whole thing. Great for KC.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 09:35 PM) Let me rephrase that... I doubt they will only make a new 6 inch Nexus. I think a lot of people would be put off by it, but then again the Nexus phones aren't really a consumer-first device. It's designed for developers. That thing is huge...just look at the spacing of the navigation buttons. They're usually pretty close together on the phone UI. That's more or less a tablet UI on a phone. I think there's a good possibility they make a 5.2 inch version based off the new Moto X and the 5.9 inch version that's shown up there. There was a picture of that phone next to an LG G3 on reddit yesterday and someone made a to-scale cut-out from that image. Apparently, it'll be similar in height to the iPhone 6 Plus, but slightly wider. I also doubt this thing will be cheap...say good bye to the sub $400 price tag. All phablets are expensive, especially ones with a 2K 6 inch screen. I think I'm going to switch to Tmobile's family plan but only if I can get a non 6 inch nexus. Reason being, its the only phone worth buying out of contract, imo (given its favorable price point to all other phones). With them being willing to give me 208 for my old 4 and buy me out of my sprint contract...I am all in on their family deals. We'd save a lot from my already cheap sprint plan.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 09:13 AM) His lack of power the last two years really concerns me. I can stomach .270 with a .320 OBP, that's acceptable in this day and age. However, the .380 SLG is unacceptable coming from a designated hitter. He can hit for a mediocre average all he wants, but if he's going to put up an ISO barely above .100, that's not going to cut it. I also view him as, in the grand scheme of things, a low dollar value signing and a good clubhouse guy. Again though, if you had a team of empty .300 hitters who were fast vs. a team of Adam Dunns, I'll take the team with empty .300 averages every time. Now I know some of you will say blah blah blah we need more context but I will. Of course, counter point is Butler is not fast, agreed, but he can actually hit. Is he done, I don't know, but I don't have a problem giving him a 1 yr 5M deal with an option year.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 08:55 AM) .271/.323/.379 is not horrid out of your DH? If it wasn't for a semi-decent second half, he would have had a sub-.700 OPS. I'd rather have Adam Dunn if that's the Billy Butler of the future. No thanks. Hitting still counts. Its something I will tell stat people a million times over. The ability to actually get hits, matters. Again, Butler had a poor year, but horrid is a stretch and I think when you look over his longer span, you'll see a guy that was very productive and is a flat out good hitter. Great, no, but good, yes, and you know what, I'm sick of how many BAD hitters we've had. Adam Dunn made me sick.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 08:52 AM) He's a good buy-low candidate. Unfortunately, the guy's a double play machine and he was absolutely horrid for most of the year. Dude still hit for a good average and had a solid OBP. He was not horrid. Worse then previous years, sure, but horrid, absolutely not.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 06:43 AM) Had Billy Beane not traded for Jon Lester, I think it's very possible Oakland doesn't even make the wild-card game. How can you state that. It clearly appears A's were negatively impacted in clubhouse and Cespedes had more value then Beane believed.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Oct 1, 2014 -> 06:29 AM) Did anyone else enjoy seeing Billy Beane's trade deadline strategy go up in smoke last night, at the hands of the lowly Kansas City Royals? I'm talking about the Jon Lester trade, which Beane must have thought was his ticket to the NLDS should the Angels somehow pass his A's and he be forced into a one-game wild card game to get in!! There he was, Jon Lester, out on the mound in the bottom of the 8th, having outdueled James Shields and the first couple guys out of the vaunted KC bullpen to a seemingly insurmountable lead of 7-3. But Lester couldn't finish the 8th, and Oakland goes on to lose 9-8 in 12, blowing 1 run leads in both the 9th and 12th innings! All while Adam Dunn, in his only postseason game in his career, sits on the bench! With the Sox out of it, we have to take our pleasure somewhere!!! Discuss. To be frank, the writing seemed to be on the wall with Lester. He should have been pulled a few batters earlier. By the way, I continue to say I would really like Billy Butler.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Sep 30, 2014 -> 01:09 PM) Mostly Hoke is losing and people already want him gone. The answers from their press conference are pretty much the same as MSU's was. Gholston was only taken out because its policy for players to come off the field if they have to stop the game for an injury. http://www.msuspartans.com/sports/m-footbl.../100212aab.html The confirmation of a concussion right now is actually debatable as well. Just saying the outrage for the firing of both the coach and the AD are directly related to their success on the field. It was clearly handled poorly at the same and since then, but it's pretty clear why the torches are burning so bright. I'm not saying the action on its own gets him fired (although it is clearly a major negative, imo), but when you combine his performance on the field with these type of actions and if I am Michigan, I am firing him.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Sep 30, 2014 -> 02:11 PM) How did the other guy lose 5 pts...? I'm guessing a wideout had a catch that he fumbled in end zone with someone else recovering and he inappropriately still got credit for TD or something like that?

To be honest, I think the way he has handled this whole thing is deplorable and he should get fired midseason.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Sep 30, 2014 -> 08:27 AM) He doesn't have great weapons anymore but the last 2 years he's been making some absolutely horrible reads and throws. People just want to blame the supporting cast but he's been bad as well. He had absolute garbage last year and somehow won. It might have been his best season in his career when you consider what he had.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Sep 29, 2014 -> 07:56 PM) Ok, Tom Brady blows. He threw at least one pick where the wideout ran the wrong route. He's getting crushed, etc. Point is, even the all time greats are human to an extent.