striker

How much war do you believe Robert will produce the next 3 seasons? I am thinking 11 war.

Haven’t heard the Brewers mentioned until now. Thoughts on their system? I wonder if this is to push the Cubs forward.

No one is trading us a superstar

So you get Campbell at 3 war and another piece. That other piece doesn’t hit (see history). You go from 1 war at 2b to 3war for a 5 war pitcher. My approach improves the team faster and decreases your risk because you aren’t hedging your bet on unproven commodities. When you have 10 holes in the boat you focus first on plugging holes, THEN you make the boat look nice. I also don’t think anyone is going to give us a top 50 prospect for Crochet and if they do, the second piece is going to he an even riskier bet.

I would do this in a heartbeat. You plug 3 holes. Sox were ca: -2.4, 1b: -1, rf: -2.4. That trade is a 10 war improvement. People are nuts wanting prospects. Why get some dude you hope is a major league regular when you can just get major league regulars.

That's my point, yes Moncada was worth more than Basallo, but Sale was worth more than Crochet. Moncada:Sale = Bosallo:Crochet. I didn't think Kopech was that high yet but sounds like he was.

I don't think Orioles bite on that. I compare Crochet to Sale and Q trades. Sale/Q had more surplus value but still just netted 2 top 100s and some throw ins. The top piece was a bat but the 2nd top piece was an arm (which comes with more risk than a bat). If I'm Elias, I'm also asking for Kopech in that deal. If I'm Getz, I'd do Basallo, Norby, Beavers, an arm (De Leon/Baumeister/Armbruester) for Crochet and Kopech.

Tigers spend though, they will actually pay to extend their star pitcher, unlike Reinsdorf.

I like the Mets as a dark horse for Crochet. Baty, Gilbert, Clifford, Acuna, Mauricio, Jett are all nice bats. Sproat and Tidwell are interesting srms.

All players come with risk. If Dombrowski offered Painter and Miller, they come with risks. Painter just had tj, Miller has performed but still in A:A+. In fact, if Robert is traded it will probably be for highly rated A/A+ level prospects. AA and AAA come with less risk. Miller (A+) and Mayo (AAA) are both 55s. Miller comes with more risk though because of less experience.

I value him at 14 war over the next 3.5 years. That is ($9x14)-61=$65m in surplus value. I don’t sell for anything lower. Even with his injury history, he can give you 2 war in a season.

Well played

I got to thinking about luck, both bad and good. Sox are lucky this year to have Fedde and Crochet having the years they are having. 2 of the best 15 pitchers in ALL OF BASEBALL. That was not something that was predicted. If they don’t trade Cease they have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. That is pretty awesome. Their bullpen has sucked but they also traded a really good reliever in Santos. Sure he has been injured but he is coming back. They have a ton of blown saves. If they are league average, maybe that’s a 10-15 game win swing. They could have signed Pham in the beginning of the year which would have added wins. Mayne they caved too soon. Don’t trade Cease or Santos. Robert, Moncada and Santos stay healthy. Sign a bat like Teoscar. Maybe this is a good team in 2024. My point being, maybe this team is closer to contention than we think. Maybe we don’t have to sell off everyone. My challenge for you is to make a plan to get us close to .500 in 2025 with a $170m payroll.

I’d expect some close to the Mahle and Berrios trades.

What would you think of Robert to Dodgers for Pages, Vargas, Outman, Knack and Bruns? Not a lot of star power coming back but all have high floors and are major leaguers or majot league ready (minus Bruns).

Think of the return for Miller and Chapman when they were rentals. If you are a playoff team you are drooling over the thought of having Crochet for the playoffs, regardless of his workload for the rest of the regular season. Then you get him for TWO MORE YEARS as a starter. The next six weeks are going to be bananas with rumors.

Chuck G said on todays podcast the White Sox have a really good offer already for Crochet. Didn’t have details but shows it’s not just chatter our there.

I could see Fedde + Kopech fetching something a little better then the Angels or Dodgers trades last year.

If I am Dipoto and I am including bother Emerson and Montes, I need an additional piece to offset Robert’s risk. Maybe Vaughn or Sheets.

He would probably have to play in 420 games in that timespan. Does anyone really see that happening? I don’t and that’s why I am willing to trade him.

I like the Cubs or Orioles for Robert. Cubs: Caissie plus one of Shaw/Alcantara Orioles: Mayo, Beavers, Povich

Robert makes a lot of sense for the Mariners. Give me one of Emerson/Young and one of Miller/Woo. Phillies always make an interesting trade partner with Dombrowski running things. I would love Painter and Miller in a deal. I would love to see Baltimore push the chips up. They of course have tons of minor league bats. Imagine a Robert + Crochet blockbuster.

Did you guys both expect to see the return we got for Graveman, Giolito, Lopez, Lynn and Kelly? After those trades, there is no telling what teams will give up.

I thought I read somewhere that the Sox offered this plus another player. If that's Norby, Beavers, Povich, McDermott then I still think that would be a good deal for Cease. Tigers didn't trade Fulmer, he got injured and never rebounded. Trading him could have altered their trajectory. There is a big difference between ballsy and stupid. Regardless, I still expect something to happen but Montgomery and Snell are holding things up.

I’m just saying that’s better than him sucking in 102 PAs.