hammerhead johnson

QUOTE(Chisoxfn @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 09:37 PM) I've long said that these stats (unless proven similar over a long period of time) are biased to how teams play. That's exactly how I feel about ERA or Wins. WHIP is a measure of control on an individual basis. ERA, on the other hand? Just like you stated: biased to how teams play. Yeah, the official scorer didn't call it an error, but Scotty Pods done f***ed up when that catchable line drive turned into a freaking triple with the bases loaded. That ain't cool. And I just love it when a starting pitcher leaves the game with two outs and two men on, and some scrub comes in and gives up a 3 run shot. That's two earned runs for your SP who just pitched a brilliant game. But that WHIP ratio ain't getting hit too hard after you leave the game.

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 09:35 PM) Also Miller Park apparently is one of the hardest stadiums to get a hit in, which definatley could point to the pitchers being more dominant at home. Hmmm, sounds about right.

QUOTE(Chisoxfn @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 09:22 PM) Did you notice that Viz wasn't bad for the Sox last season or that Kolb had a career year. He wasn't the same pitcher with the Braves. So because Shingo suck in YR 2 does that mean it was all because of US Cellular. There are exceptions, but it seems like the Brewers have the best relievers in the history of baseball! That's just deliberate exaggeration on my part, but those guys ain't nowhere near as good as what the numbers indicate. Miller = crazy pitcher's park. And Shingo? Move the fences back 600 feet, and he's still f***ed.

QUOTE(Chisoxfn @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 09:12 PM) For example they appreciate a guy with a .400 OBP yet a .240 AVG over someone with a .300 AVG, a .350 OBP, and a lower OPS than the prior hitter (or at least some do). Thats just stupid, fact is while walks can get you on base, hits are what drives guys in and they don't always go for just one base (plus walks can move guys one base, hits can move guys 2 bases quite often, sometimes more, sometimes less). Hence the reason I think statiticians everywhere over-rate OBP and underrate AVG. If OBP was such a tell all you'd have some different teams in the playoffs this past few years. The Sox wouldn't have won the world series, the Angels wouldn't have made the playoffs, Jeff Francouer wouldn't be a solid player (with a lot of upside)...etc etc. See, I agree with the OBP guys. It's all about getting on base for the hitter, just like it's all about NOT letting people get on base as a pitcher (WHIP). OPS rules all for sluggers, OBP and AVG rule all for table-setters, and WHIP rules all for pitchers. Hits drive guys in, that is correct. But the guys who are being driven in got on base via the walk.

QUOTE(Chisoxfn @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 09:12 PM) A guy whose a damn good pitcher may walk more than the usual batter and therefor his WHIP may be higher, but he could have stellar stuff and therefor people never get the key hits off him. Look at Millwood last season, he had runners on but he flat out pitches better with runnres on. Sure ERA tends to fluctuate year to year based on luck in a sense, but you don't need a very low WHIP to be a good pitcher. It helps, but its definately not a necessity. Bottom line what wins games, ERA (Runs allowed) or WHIP. You don't get a W because you gave up just 5 hits but also 5 runs. However if you give up 15 hits/walks and only give up 3 runs, well thats the result that matters and if people are posting a consistently good ERA year in year out, than I could give two s***s about what there whip is. I also think people drastically overlook home road splits. Fact is guys sometimes pitch better at certain places than others and there are plenty of people who have better stats at home becuase its there home park and they are more comfortable pithcing in front of there fans, etc. Other pitchers may struggle at there home park because for whatever reason the way they pitch doesn't fit in well for a ball park (maybe a pitcher who really like hammering the ball inside would struggle at Fenway because right handers would be able to get a lot of pulled homers, however at other parks he wouldn't suffer from that. Fact is I can tell people if someone is a good or bad pitcher with my eyes. Stats only back up whether he's actually succeeding or not and some people drastically overlook stats (in fact I think most statty guys do exactly that). And because of it they oow and awe stupid things. Well, if you have stellar stuff, you're not walking many people to begin with, because by definition, the most important ingredient for "stellar stuff" is control, and WHIP is easily the best measure of control on an individual basis. Maybe some of the position players behind you suck defensively, but they can't walk guys for you. Walks are the biggest killer in baseball IMO. That's why I sweat Frank Thomas so hard. And Billy Beane too.. Yeah, there is no doubt that you judge guys with your eyes, and you supplement what you have seen with statistics. But as far as I'm concerned, WHIP rules all in the world of pitching statistics. Johan Santana had the second best WHIP ratio in the majors. Kevin Millwood wasn't even in the Top 25 in WHIP, but he won the ERA title? What's more accurate? That's why the ERA argument just ain't registering on my end, and the Wins argument ain't even a blip on my radar. If you're giving up 15 hits/walks and you only allow three runs, then you either have a stellar defense behind you, or you need to start playing the lottery ASAP. Maybe some guys pitch better with runners on during the regular season (Millwood), but in a playoff situation, they're f***ed. That ice that they have in their veins is melting with the quickness in such a high pressure situation. And besides, Millwood is so overrated that it's not even funny.

QUOTE(Chisoxfn @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 09:13 PM) No the guy who wins 20 games and puts up a good ERA is the best. I realize Wins are an elusive stat but thats what you get paid to do...WIN Games. Sure you can make a point that a guy who wins 22 with a poor ERA got a little lucky, but he still got the wins and thats what this game is about. You don't award Cy Youngs on WHIP. Well, teams win games, not pitchers. To me, wins are the last thing that you look at. Ben Sheets is Exhibit A.

Okay, without even looking at PF numbers (which can be a mindf*** from year to year in some cases), I'd say that these are the 12 best pitching parks in baseball, in no particular order: New York (Mets) Washington Florida Milwaukee Pittsburgh Chicago (Cubs) Los Angeles San Francisco San Diego Oakland Seattle Detroit Who am I missing? Wrigley Field is a hitter's nightmare when the wind is blowing in, which is seemingly more often than not. And you know what? I should have brought up Danny Kolb when we were discussing Miller Park before. That dude is Exhibit A. Christ, how about Luis Vizcaino? Don't tell me that it's all Mike Maddux. Seriously, I just can't trust anyone on their pitching staff unless they kick ass elsewhere, like Sheets or Turnbow.

QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 09:02 PM) Holy crap! What's up with your sig? Is that the old testament? Yeah, that's exactly right. I worship the Old Testament. The new one just blows.

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 06:57 PM) how does Buehrle have over a 1.4 difference in ERA last year between his home and away splits? Des that mean hes only average because his stats are skewed toward him only being great in his home park? How quickly do we forget 2004 where he led the American League in road ERA? Remember his home numbers? Didn't his ERA clear 5.00 or whatever? Then we have a gang of numbskulls on here talking about how he's nowhere near an ace. Always remeber these things, Rock.

QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 06:56 PM) Actually, all those guys I listed were at 1.25 or higher last year, which is starting to creep towards bad. Those guys don't really pitch like it though. These guys obviously have the stuff to get by though. They posted very high strikeout totals and had low BAA. That compensates for the high walk rates a bit. Plus their totals aren't that bad if you actually look at all their numbers instead of picking half of them. I can make a lot of guys look bad if you just want to use splits. As I said, they're not aces, but they're better than a good number of pitchers in their division. 1.20 range meaning anything between 1.20 and 1.30. Anything above 1.35 is starting to creep towards bad. Right, their totals look okay (not good) because they pitch at Miller Park. That is the only reason.

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 06:55 PM) Ok, so now its not based on stats, its based on "have you seen him pitch?" Its obviously that no matter what I say, or post, you wont budge or even take into account the other half of the argument, may its carryover from your NBA opinions. As far as parks go, and which is a hitting park etc, I looked up the 2005 stats on that, and it appears Miller Park was ranked 16th out of 30 as far as park factor. PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG)) Considering that a number below 1.0 coincides with a favorable environment for a pitcher, Miller park comes in as the first stadium in that side of the chart at .992. Just below Wrigley field. Your "hitters haven" minute maid park comes in 23rd at a .949 which makes it one of the best pitchers parks. Of course the correlation could be because of the pitching staff, but the same could be said for Miller Park. Miller Park isnt exactly the pitchers paradise you made it out to be, as it falls just under Wrigley field in PF which is regarded as a hitters park. IN fact in 2004 Miller Park was known as a hitters park with a 1.004 PF rating ranking them 11th. Now addressing your generalization about how the white sox pitchers should be better away from their "hitters park." I only point to Mark Buehrle's 2005 numbers where he had a 2.48 ERA 1.06 WHIP at home and a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 on the road. Is this because he is only good in a certain park, or because its easier for pitcher to throw at home? You decide. Wrigley Field is, for the most part, a favorable park for pitchers. When the wind is blowing in, that place is nuts. Mark Buehrle had the best road ERA in the AL in 2004. I don't care what the PF stats say. Miller Park is a great place to pitch. Even a casual fan knows that. Just try to explain the home vs. away splits for Capuano and Davis. And yeah, I go on what I see and I supplement it with statistics. That's why the NBA stuff is always so funny, because defense just doesn't show up on paper. Larry Hughes is 1st Team All NBA defense, remember.

QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 06:46 PM) They're not that good, but the other team has to deal with the same conditions. If they play in Milwaukee the other pitcher has the same advantage, and if they play in Cincinnati they have the same diadvantage. Capuano managed to win 18 last year, so he can't be all bad. Yes, it was a Russ Ortiz-esque 18, but he still won that many. I'd still rather have Davis and Capuano instead of the bottom 3 in Houston's no matter where they pitch. Thier road numbers are still better than what those pitchers posted. Outside of some flashes from Backe they're just not very good. Hell, Backe was better at home than away (3.91 ERA at home, 5.83 away). Good comparison between Capuano and Russ Ortiz. That is actually perfect. Neither one has much talent at all, although Russ is a fierce competitor. I'd rather have Capuano or Davis as opposed to Backe as well, but that ain't saying much. I dunno, we'll see. I even had Capuano on my fantasy squad last year. I caught a few of his games. I had to drop him with the quickness, no doubt.

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 06:42 PM) BTW Ohka has 11 IP in Miller park, nice sample size. And once again, what is the problem with them being good at home and worse on the road? Is it too out of the question to think that they follow the norm of being better in their home park? As far as rotations in their divisionm they are probably the 2nd best only to ST Louis IMO, which could win them the division or the wild card no problem. LEARN ABOUT BASEBALL STADIUMS. Get to know them, frequent them. If I'm evaluating starters, I'm looking at splits. If a guy sucks in Cincinatti, it doesn't necessarily mean that he's a bad overall pitcher. If a guy puts up nice numbers in Los Angeles or San Francisco, it DOES NOT mean that he is a good pitcher. Right?

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 06:37 PM) SO what? They pitch in half their games there dont they? Ohka put up good starting pitching numbers in other stadiums as well. Freddy Garcia pitches better on the road than at home, does that makes him garbage? Seriously, its admirable that you like arguing just for the sake of arguing, but the rotation in Milwaukee is probably the 2nd best in their division. Which is good enough to make them a favorite. I am just arguing for th sake of arguing? Have you watched Ohka pitch on numerous occasions? He is below average at best. His home numbers in a freaking pitcher's park last year tell the story. USCF is a hitting haven. Of course Freddy and the rest of the White Sox starters are going to look better on the road. Milwaukee has the second best rotation in the NL Central? While I'm not at all impressed with 5 out of the 6 rotations in that division, I don't have the balls to say that they're the second best, because their rotation flat out sucks. Major suckfest. So, there's a little more aguing for the sake of arguing. Now, tell me all about Capuano's .280 BAA on the road, or Doug's 4.50 ERA on the road.

QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 06:27 PM) I'm not sure, whatever ESPN uses. There are also several other fairly effective starters with WHIPS above 1.2, like Freddy, Vazquez, Sabathia, and Webb. The 1.20 range is damn good. But if you're at 1.45 like Capuano and Davis? You suck, and there is absolutely no doubt about that. Keep in mind that I'm looking strictly at road numbers in this particular case.

QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 06:27 PM) Capuano is a little erratic, but he's got good enough stuff to get out of it a good portion of the time. For a #3 starter that still has some room to develop, you could do worse. Davis also has a high WHIP, but his overall numbers have been fairly good the last two seasons. Granted they're not staff aces, but they're better than a lot of teams have. If Sheets keeps getting hurt, then yes, their rotation is eventually going to kill them. But with those guys as your 2 and 3 in a division that doesn't have a lot of pitching depth, they can get by. Their rotation is definitely stronger than Cinci and Pitt no matter what happens, and with Sheets it's better than the current Cubs' rotation and arguably even the Astros (great top two, but the bottom 3 are pretty weak). I don't think they can beat the Cardinals, but they can do better than the rest of the division. What do you think of those Home vs. Road stats that I posted? You don't think that both Capuano and Davis are products of Miller Park? I don't think that they have much talent at all, but I suppose that's just me. Put them in Houston, and they're just as wack as the other guys in their 3-4-5. But they pitch in Milwaukee, and people (for whatever reason) don't realize that Miller Park is a pitching haven, so I dunno.

QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 06:12 PM) By the way, according to ESPN Buehrle ranked #17 last year and Oswalt was #21. Not that it really makes much of a difference, just saying. With what minimum of IP? I'm going by 150.

QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 06:12 PM) They've put up higher WHIP's than that in the past while still doing pretty well. If you've got the stuff and pitching ability to get out of it, how many baserunners you allow doesn't really matter. Yeah, but the guy who allows the fewest baserunners is the best. If you're walking too many guys, you're playing with fire, and it doesn't matter how good your stuf is...you're gonna get hammered at times. You can't be pinpoint with every single pitch, and even if you are, there are a lot of unbelievably talented hitters in this league that will get to you. And if anyone learned anything from the Top 20 WHIP list I maintained last year, the best of the best show up on that list ALWAYS. Now, on a Top 20 ERA list, that is never the case. ERA is influenced WAY too much by the stadium that you pitch in.

QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 06:00 PM) Although neither is perfect, ERA is a better method of measurement than WHIP. Guys like Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, and Mark Buehrle have put up some pretty high WHIP numbers while still being highly effective pitchers. Davis and Capuano are two other pitchers that have done fairly well the last two years despite high WHIP numbers. Zoom, all three were Top 15 in the majors last year: Zambrano 1.15 WHIP Buehrle 1.18 WHIP Oswalt 1.20 WHIP I must say that I'm stunned by your post. WHIP is so much better than ERA that it's not even funny.

Hey Rock, I did some research for you. You know, because it is soooo silly that I only brought up WHIP numbers. :rolly Chris Capuano 2005 Splits: 1.45 Road WHIP vs. 1.33 Home WHIP .280 Road BAA v. .235 Home BAA 4.30 Road ERA vs. 3.70 Home ERA Doug Davis 2005 Splits: 1.44 Road WHIP vs. 1.20 Home WHIP .256 Road BAA vs. .218 Home BAA 4.50 Road ERA vs. 3.40 Home ERA Toma Ohka's home numbers: .290 BAA 1.45 WHIP Learn about baseball stadiums. See which parks are pitchers havens. Miller Park would qualify. Check the effing stats FOR TEH LOVE OF GOD.

Seriously, if I were to rank all 30 MLB rotations right now, the Brewers would be in the bottom 15 to 20%. If that wins divisions, then pass me some of that crack rock.

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 03:50 PM) Picking apart WHIP is just one part of the pitcher's stats. Davis had a 3.84 ERA in 2005 and 3.39 in 2004. Both seasons pitching over 200 innings. Regardless of how many hits and walks he gave up per inning, he still didnt give up that many runs, which is the focus of a pitcher. Not only that but eating 200 innings per year is a big plus as well. Last year his BAA was .235, thats pretty f***ing good IMO. Oh and so is 208 K's Capuano is also a very good yong pitcher. You AGAIN point at his WHIP as being a gauge of how great he is. Well im sorry you find his WHIP unimpressive, but I find his sub 4 ERA pretty good IMO. He went 18-12 while pitching over 200 innings as well. His BAA was .256 which is pretty dam good as well. And to address your all important WHIP concerns, in two starts this year its sub 1.0 while his BAA is .178. Sheets is an Ace, I wouldnt think I would have to go that deep into conversation about him, he just needs to stay healthy. Bush is now starting his 3rd full season starting in the majors, obviously he has room to improve. His career ERA is at 4.07 which is not bad for someone who has only pitched 3 years. He also has a pretty decent WHIP last year at 1.25, this year at .57 in one start. He is a young guy on a young staff and has shown he can improve. Ohka may be the weak link on a young starting staff, but his career numbers arent as bad as you make them out to be. You say he is beyond brutal? Well His career ERA is 3.95, which doesnt seem brutal to me. He has proven to have a higher WHIP, but has also shown in his 3 years of starting full time that he can throw around 200 innings with a fairly low ERA, even posting a 3.18 in 31 starts in 2002. Saying he is beyond brutal is taking it a little too far IMO. Cherry picking WHIP stats to prove a pitcher's worth is pretty silly IMO. ERA is probably the best idicated of a pitcher's worth, and this staff looks to be not only improving, but decent to begin with. Each arm has the potential to throw at least 200 innings, with an ERA under 4.0. That alone could win the NL central this year. Some numbers to compare between 2002 and 2004 Buehrle posted an ERA of 3.58, 4.14, 3.89 with whips 1.24, 1.35, 1.26. His away WHIP in 2005 was 1.33 Garcia's home WHIP in 2005 was 1.37 ERA is a better indicator than WHIP of a pitcher's worth? You keep telling yourself that. Meanwhile, anyone who knows their pitching on this site is laughing pretty f***ing hard at your post. Good God, man. It looks like you spent a little bit too much time trying to defend a horses*** rotation. Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, David Bush, and Toma Ohka make up 4/5 of an actual major league pitching staff. That is f***ing TERRIBLE. And do you realize how much of a pitcher's haven Miller Field is? Why do you think I only brought up WHIP numbers on the road? The splits tell me the truth, but I dunno where your head is at.

QUOTE(rangercal @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 04:55 AM) on girls.. Long hair Decaf or regualr Regular. Decaf is like beer without alcohol in it. Are the clouds moving, or is the earth rotating? Don't just merely choose one for the hell of it. Give me a serious answer FOR TEH LOVE OF GOD.

QUOTE(RME JICO @ Apr 11, 2006 -> 09:58 AM) I am surprised that it was only 4 years, which is a good move on Boston's part. He has been aided by playing at Fenway and his pre-Boston compared to his current numbers reflect that. No, he's just a monster. How are you sleeping on both Derrek Lee and David Ortiz? In the here and now, these guys are absolute beasts. MVP caliber players.

QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Apr 12, 2006 -> 03:42 AM) Start carrying a gun. And make sure to remove the safety before you shoot yourself.