Marty34

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:45 PM) And so if they win 79 games, they've overperformed by that standard. How many 71 win teams spend $95-100M to get there and keep their GM?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:26 PM) Why? A $100 million payroll next year will be pretty close to the middle of the league (esp. since the Marlins have jumped into the top 10). Thus, a .500 season with a middle-of-the-league payroll is exactly what should be expected. That isn't telling you that you have a talent evaluation problem, that's telling you that you're right where you should be for your payroll. Hopefully if you're at that point, you have some plan for the next set of moves to build towards the next season or two. You said it is a 71-win team on paper.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:05 PM) Then why should anyone believe you when you sit here and insist without evidence that there is a talent evaluation problem and that 2012 is an all-in season? Worse, not even without evidence, with a whole lot of opposition arguments staring you in the face that you will not deal with? I'm willing to concede that a single 79-win season on a $127M payroll doesn't necessarily mean there is a talent evaluation problem, however if they follow that up with a similar season on a $94M payroll, I think there is a talent evaluation problem.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:59 PM) Notice how you do nothing but simply put in 1 line assertions and never, ever offer up any reason or evidence why anyone should believe you? Yes. You make better arguments than me.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:48 PM) And from the GM's spot it's a solid deal, one he's likely to outperform...and most importantly, a deal that is entirely moveable in the future if he doesn't get hurt. The GM would probably have stayed in touch with his side to know his approximate demands, and in the event that the owner finally became willing to go for them, the contract would get done. It would behoove Williams to be right on this contract.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:47 PM) Clearly, part of that talent is in your reading abilities, because you completely missed the post where we discussed how having guys like Viciedo, Morel, Sale, Reed, and the back 1/2 of the bullpen take time to develop, like kids are supposed to, doesn't state anything about the talent evaluation abilities of the front office. Williams does not have the free pass you believe he does.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:42 PM) 5 years for the a pitcher suggests JR was behind this contract. It probably went through the GM first.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:34 PM) First, I don't think anyone buys season tickets based on the ID of the GM. If the White Sox are bad again in 2012 there is a talent evaluation problem with this organization that will be addressed.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:35 PM) The only reason Danks is here is he dropped his price and took a five year deal. Wrong. The only reason he's still here is the Sox believe he is a $65M starter.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:17 PM) When have the White Sox ever done that? Why would the White Sox do that and genuinely sacrifice their ticket sale position by putting a team out even weaker than this one? It's only a good baseball decision if teams are offering up a lot of talent for the guys the Sox have (they aren't, because too many teams are overvaluaing youth right now), and it's only a good business decision if the Sox can't afford their current roster, which clearly they now can. Yet you think season ticket sales for 2013 will allow Chairman Reinsdorf to keep Williams if they are bad again?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:12 PM) Not at all. KW keeping his job for 2013 is already pretty clearly going to happen, probably 2014 as well. The evaluation for him already happened. Whatever he told the chairman going in to last season about the risks, the chairman decided he was the person to go with as the GM through this retooling, and thus he has every opportunity to see it through. Last year, the GM's job was to try to give the manager a chance to prove he still cared about staying in his job. The GM put together a roster that did that. This year, the GM's job is to start a retooling process to put the team in contention in a year or two. Chairman Reinsdorf benevolence only goes so far. If the White Sox do not contend in 2012 it is because the GM made bad talent decisions. He isn't going to entrust a rebuilding to that same GM.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:08 PM) That's the thing...you're 100% wrong here...especially with Viciedo. Dayan Viciedo is going to be a 23 year old this season. He is supposed to struggle if he hits the big leagues at 23. Rookies take time to develop, especially when they hit the big leagues early. The talent could be entirely there and still take a while. Same applies to Reed in the bullpen, and even more so Sale in the rotation, who has to get back up to 100+ innings after having his last season gambled on trying to save the job of the manager who had quit years beforehand. Ditto Morel while I'm at it. That's what you get when you plug in youth; taking a few years to adapt is the norm, not the exception. The White Sox believe they are ready or they would have gone through a complete tear down.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:05 PM) I see, so you didn't watch the games. No wonder you think KW only has 1 more year for evaluation. I'm surprised you didn't change the subject by bringing up Cowley. It's difficult to come up with a scenario where the Sox play bad and Williams keeps his job for 2013.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:01 PM) Not necessarily, because guys like Beckham, Viciedo, Humber, the whole bullpen could be struggling. Or Konerko and AJ could be showing their age. Perhaps, but if Beckham and Viciedo are struggling it still goes back to talent evaluation.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 02:59 PM) And they also tolerated a manager who had clearly quit on them too. No.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 02:50 PM) Or that those players will be able to net higher returns at some point in the future, either through draft-pick compensation or deadline moves. If they are performing well enough at the trade deadline that they command a higher price at the deadline, I believe the White Sox are either contending or Dunn, Peavy, and Rios are still bad.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 02:43 PM) Next year, no matter what, Jake Peavy's contract is gone. Next year, Konerko and Floyd's dollars are clear...but that $26 million on Dunn and Rios still hangs around. Point is, how can you entrust the rebuilding to the same front office who missed so badly on Dunn, Rios, and Peavy? Can't do it.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 02:44 PM) You're neglecting one other option...that teams just weren't offering solid deals for any of those guys. Again, that points to talent evaluation. If they are good enough to keep the Sox must believe they are good enough to contend with.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 02:24 PM) Basically, Kenny built a team with an outside shot at competing...but really, this team is designed to put up a record close to .500 and give him a chance to work through the contracts that are hurting it. If those contracts hurt them again next year the problem is with talent evaluation.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 02:15 PM) Just how big of an aberration do you think last season was? Even with a marginal increase in production at all of those positions (which is FAR from a guarantee, particularly when you consider that Sale will wisely be forbidden from giving us 200+ innings), are we better than the Tigers? In the end, we weren't that close to them last year...especially not close enough for Sale, Thornton, De Aza and Viciedo to pick up the slack. Your contention is that we all predicted the Sox to contend last year, and the team is relatively similar to last year's, so we should be competitive this year. My (and most everyone else's) contention is that we were WRONG about last year -- very wrong -- and should adjust our expectations accordingly. In order to hold your position on things, you must think that last year's discrepancy between expectations and reality was all fluke, no substance. I'm only willing to admit to partial flukiness, and certainly not enough of it that we've filled in the gap between us and the Tigers. If Dunn, Rios, and Peavy are as bad as they were last year then there is a talent evaluation problem in the White Sox front office that will be addressed. You can put Danks in that mix now as a guy who the Sox are counting on

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 02:18 PM) I also don't understand how you rectify "Kenny be damned for Rios, Peavy and Dunn!" with "Rios, Peavy and Dunn had fluky seasons last year!" I desperately want to be wrong on damning Kenny for those three and if I am I believe the White Sox will contend. If the Sox didn't think they could contend without Buehrle, Santos, and Quentin, they wouldn't have signed Danks, kept Floyd, Ramirez, or Thornton.

It's reasonable to think that the replacements will be as good if not better than Buehrle, Santos, Pierre, and Quentin.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 01:45 PM) Then you'd call for KW's firing for failing to develop a winning big league team. I expect the team Kenny Williams put together for 2012 to contend for an AL Central title.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 01:42 PM) No, I wouldn't, but the end result of that is people like you calling for KW's firing because he's taking a down year or two at the big league to develop talent at that level and leaving the system bare. The Sox are not rebuilding.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 01:28 PM) Of course, if recent history is any guide, the "improvements" on the farm will be on the big league roster by sometime in 2013. . . . Or perhaps you'd rather have a prospect guru bestow a coveted top 15 ranking on the system in 2013.