Marty34

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 03:28 PM) Except Floyd's value with team-friendly contracts for 2 years might even be more valuable than Danks for just one. You could make arguments either way. There are just too many question marks with Sale, Humber, Peavy and Stewart to do that if you really want to compete for the AL Central in 2012. We have Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd right now and we're on the fringe of competing. One of Floyd or Danks has to go. The other thing that there is no way around is Rios, Dunn, and Peavy all have to play up to their contract next year if we want to compete not matter what the rest of the roster looks like.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 03:00 PM) But I still don't see how they sell letting Danks and Ramirez go to the fanbase and claiming to be "All In" still... They can't. Impossible. Even if KW/Hahn pulled off a Sizemore/Lee/Phillips haul, it wouldn't be until 2013-2014 that some of the fans started to come back on board. Keep Danks and trade Floyd then. Payroll would be @100M, but the trade return would take a hit. If the Sox will lose $7M this year on a $127M payroll, I think it's reasonable to assume a payroll in the neighborhood of $110M in 2012.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 02:35 PM) Is this some new type of software? Kalapse's is the only one that is accurate on a year-by-year future outlay basis. I think you're just adding and subtracting from 2011. That won't work...because of all the built-in salary increases (that I outlined above) and the up-in-the-air addition of Jason Frasor. https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tK7...amp;output=html

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 01:54 PM) Ramirez and Thornton will be at $10.5 million next year (Thornton going from $3 to $5.5 million so basically very little in return at that price, his age, and with one pitch). You can estimate Quentin/Danks at $17-18 million combined. I don't see where you're getting another $20 million in savings, though. Pierre/Teahen/Jackson/Linebrink/Vizquel/Castro/Pena... Cotts has them at $89.25 as of now, without Ramirez and Thornton it goes down $78.75M LF De Aza CF Rios RF Viciedo 3B Morel SS Lillibridge 2B Beckham 1B Konerko C AJP DH Dunn Signing Buehrle for $12M per say puts them at $91M SP Buehrle SP Floyd SP Sale SP Peavy SP Stewart/Humber RP Santos RP Crain RP Reed RP Ohman RP Santiago RP Humber/Stewart Obviously holes, some of which should be filled with talent received in return for Danks, Quentin, Ramirez, and Thornton. But at $91M you can take on $15M in salary while chopping $20M from 2011.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 01:52 PM) Which means Buehrle should be more likely to go, not less. If you are going to pull the payroll card, you lose. If you are going to pull the age card, you lose. If you are going to pull their overall ranking card, you lose. If Buehrle goes it's a total rebuild.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 01:40 PM) Why aren't the Sox in a position to pay their Top 4 SS $5 million, yet in a position to pay their 33 year old Top 50 pitcher probably about three times that next year? Because Kenny "The Genius" Williams has saddled them with three incredibly bad contracts.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 01:35 PM) That's way more than Mark Buehrle would get in a competitive market bidding. And a ton more than he'd get if he limited himself to a couple teams. I was putting Buehrle arount $10M-$12M a year with a total payroll around $105-$110M.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 01:17 PM) Lillibridge coming into this year against RHP was at .175 average with 501 OPS (177 AB's). Now maybe the greatest Walker miracle since Jesus Walking on Water or Lazarus was raised from the dead has happened... .244 with 801 OPS (82 AB's) in 2011. Can anyone confidently predict that he would put up even a 700-ish OPS against ALL RHP in everyday play? Ozzie is very very selective about who he lets Lillibridge go up against, in order to protect him. Has done the same with Morel and Viciedo last year. You have to bite the bullet somewhere because of the Rios/Dunn/Peavy contracts. I maintain that it's best to do it with Ramirez because you can get something in return for him and he's not young enough, cheap enough, or frankly good enough to build a team around for the next three years. Getting rid of Danks, Quentin, Ramirez, and Thornton would bring an influx of talent in hopefully. It would also put the payroll at $79.25M which allows for Buehrle to be resigned and $15-20M to fill in holes.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 12:51 PM) I keep expecting your posts to improve, and sadly you continue to spew this awful garbage that is disproven by both the eye test and actual statistics. Maybe you should call your "guy on 35th" and ask him what Sox scouts think of Alexei. It's clear to me that you don't understand the game or the position the Sox are in. I wish the Sox were in a position to keep their 30 y.o. shortstop. They're a .500 team with few tradable players.

I think the Weaver contract makes it more likely that Danks gets dealt.

Say the Sox bring back everyone for next year. Here's how i think the starters will rank at the end of the year: 1.) Sale 2.) Danks 3.) Floyd 4.) Buehrle 5.) Stewart 6.) Peavy 7.) Humber That top 5 has potential. One problem is Peavy is going to have to pitch and be paid. If you think Peavy can come back to something resembling his NL form, they can withstand the loss of Danks.

I think they've gotten the best years out of Danks. Deal him and let someone else pay him the big money.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 10:45 AM) Is FLD some kind of fielding measure? If so fangraphs has Alexei at #1, by a sizable margin. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=2011&ind=0 Hopefully some unsuspecting GM will believe Fangraphs this offseason.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 10:42 AM) lol. GMAB. You're going to blame Ramirez for Pierre's dreadful first couple months and Rios' laziness? No. I'm blaming him for plays the best defensive SS in the leagues makes.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 10:30 AM) NO matter what the stats say, you don't trade Alexei Ramirez to replace him with Brent Lillibridge unless you are doing a rebuild. If you are rebuilding, you aren't resigning Mark Buehrle to a long term deal. Buehrle is more important to this franchise over the next three years than Ramirez is.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 10:31 AM) He's been arguably the best defensive SS in baseball the last two years. Not this year. How many pop ups have dropped in front of Pierre/Rios, plays that were his? He appears to be afraid he's going to get in a collision.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 08:19 AM) If you are going to rationalize dealing your all-world defensive, and very solid offensive SS, it is because you are rebuilding. He's been all-average defensively this year as well as his first year.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 21, 2011 -> 08:53 PM) It should be possible to find about the Sox-USCF deal simply because it's public information SOMEWHERE. It's apparent Google is heeding the word and staying out of White Sox business.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 21, 2011 -> 08:25 PM) Getting down to 1.5 million or less in attendance still probably wouldn't come close to being worth $2-3 million (basically less than they're paying Scott Linebrink not to pitch for the Sox this season). Hard to say. Need more info since the lease was renegotiated and it's really tough to find online. Suffice it to say, it's a darn good lease for the Sox even 20 years after it signed.

Here's a link to a story on the lease from 1989 I believe the number has been renegotiated since the renovations and is now 2 million.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 21, 2011 -> 07:13 PM) But there's no doubt Lillibridge at even a 750 OPS (100 less than currently) would be better than Beckham at 630. He'd be better than Ramirez too.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 21, 2011 -> 07:06 PM) MARTY, YOU'RE WAY OFF....hopefully you really aren't joe cowley or you're tremendously misinformed about something that could be google'd in mere seconds. Try finding the lease. It appears I am wrong on the ticket subsidy, it's been a while since I read the lease. I know they get *something* from the state though under the guise of a maintenance fee.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Aug 21, 2011 -> 06:20 PM) And then insert whom? Eduardo Escobar and his .640 OPS at AAA? Other than catcher, there's no other position on the diamond more difficult to fill than SS. I agree with you that what you see is what you get with Ramirez (i.e. he's peaked). But that's fine. He's extremely athletic, durable and features 3 legitimate tools: power-speed-defense. Still a relative bargain contractual wise going forward. If Ramirez is what you say he is imagine the return we'd get for him.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 21, 2011 -> 05:55 PM) 2 million at what price? GA or the cheapest upper deck seats? Certainly not premium or box seat rates. What does that even mean? So if the overall attendance was 1.8 million, they would have to recompensate the Sox for an additional 200,000 tickets? Yes. I believe it's at the average ticket price. You trade Ramirez because his value will never be higher. In so doing that, you free up money to possibly sign Buehrle.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Aug 21, 2011 -> 05:35 PM) And...? He's a top 5 shortstop, he doesn't need to get better. He may not have to, but the team needs to.