Marty34

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 03:21 PM) This is certainly true. I can't imagine anyone would argue with that. However, when you're discussing future value, you gotta start somewhere, otherwise we're all blowing numbers out of our a**es. You're saying 3/$40M would be a steal. You don't like WAR, and you don't like $/WAR. So what, then, are you basing your assessment on? The FA pitchers that went before him, next year's class, and the money the Sox have available.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 03:20 PM) Actually no we can't, because if we sign Santana, Paulino only reaches the rotation if someone gets hurt. I believe if he can pitch he'll have ample opportunity to reach the rotation even if they sign a FA. Johnson's arbitration clock, rest for Sale and Quntana, an injury to Danks.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 03:10 PM) You can do the exact same thing with veteran fliers like Paulino, except then you haven't lost the 2nd round pick to begin with, so the marginal increase in value is that much higher. In your scenario, you haven't made up for the value you lost, you just took it off the value of Quintana. Then you can trade Paulino too. He'd have a ton of value because he's cheap. The haul you get for Quintana and Paulino should be greater than what you get in the 2nd round.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 03:01 PM) Name a stat you like. I promise it's not a predictive stat either, but you can use it to try and evaluate future outcomes, even though it's imprecise. Do you like OBP? Then you should like the Dunn signing AT THE MOMENT IT WAS SIGNED. Since it failed, you must hate OBP. It's useless, nobody ever talk about it because it's dumb. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD! I'm just saying stats can't nail down the precise value a contract should be. There are many factors and they differ for each franchise.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 02:52 PM) Retrospectively, indeed he was. That doesn't really have anything to do with whether or not WAR is a good statistic. Additionally, no one is telling you that value/WAR is a perfect metric for a signing, either. It's just a way to set a benchmark so that people don't throw out random numbers and say "this is good!" or "this is bad!" without any evidence. You keep saying this, but how and when will the value be recouped? Are you saying we can trade Santana for a 2nd rounder or something of equivalent value? Are you saying we will get the pick back when he inevitably hits free agency as a Type B or A? How are you factoring in the very reasonable possibility that neither of those things happen? No. Backfill the rotation with Johnson and Beck and deal Quintana if need be and hope that Hoffman is there at #2. If Johnson shows he can't replace Quintana, deal Danks.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 02:55 PM) Well, this is just brilliant. Let's not look at the body of evidence as a whole, let's pick a signing that failed and use it to reject predictive stats like WAR even though it's not a predictive stat. When a formula fails as miserably as it did in Dunn's case it's time to be more than skeptical of the formula.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 02:53 PM) So you're pulling reasons to sign people out of you a**? Or you're just suggesting the ones that sound the dumbest? Nothing could be dumber than the ones used to say Dunn was a good signing. I mean talk about go back to the drawing board.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 02:47 PM) Ervin Santana would be a bad signing that every single stat you can come up with would alert you to. After the Dunn signing I have no faith in predictive stats.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 02:45 PM) I let Chris Sale go out and see if he can win the first of 5 consecutive cy young awards in 2014, and I have no idea what this team is going to look like in 2016 given that from the roster last season there are about 3-4 guys actually under team control for that long. That's a far bigger risk to this franchise than giving up a 2nd round pick. Since we both agree that the Sox have no chance in 2014 it makes no sense to pitch him. Keep Sale healthy for when it matters.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 02:44 PM) It was considered a good deal because he wasn't supposed to play defense in Chicago. His WAR would have been much higher prior to the deal had he been primarily a DH. You can shore up the rotation and give yourself options in much cheaper fashion. I am sorry you are fixated on this mid-to-high price deal but it's not going to happen and I think it'd be a foolish allocation of resources. Adam Dunn was a bad signing that WAR never alerted anyone to.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 02:42 PM) By trading the guy who you've already overpaid? Since you're so stressed out about him, we can recoup it just like we can with Adam Dunn right now, right? No. Deal Quintana if need be or Danks when he makes his come back.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 02:41 PM) The White Sox believed they were an "All-in" team, trying to win at all costs. That means they were in a place where it made sense to pay full price on the FA market to fill in holes because 1-2 wins could have been the difference between missing the playoffs and making the playoffs. If you can convince me the white sox are in a position right now where 1-2 extra wins from Santana puts us in the playoffs, you can make a strong case for that being a good deal. If you can't make that argument, then it is a terrible proposal. What's the team going to look like in 2016 and what do you do with Sale in 2014?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 02:39 PM) Plus the draft pick and plust the fact that you're paying for him now as well so you can't use the price in 2016 to cover teh first 2 years of the contract. The draft pick is meaningless in this because its value can easily be recouped.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 02:28 PM) I get where you're getting your 3/$33M. How does that make 3/$40M a steal? That's $7M unaccounted for if he forgets to age and puts up the same rates he has over the last three years. How was it that Dunn's contract was deemed a good deal for the Sox when it was signed? Every player transaction is unique and at this point in time it would behoove the Sox to shore up the rotation for a moderate investment in order to give themselves more options to improve the team in 2015 and 2016.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 02:06 PM) At current rates of inflation I'm going to guess in the range of $6-$7 million. $7M per puts it at 3/$33M. $40M over 3 years is a steal on the free agent market.

You got me B. Anyway, stathead types told me Dunn's contract was a good one for the Sox and that could not have been further from the truth. What will the price of a WAR be in 2016?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 01:20 PM) Over the last 3 years, Ervin Santana has put up 4.6 fWAR. If I go with paying $6 million per WAR, over the last 3, when he was ages 28, 29, and 30, years he's been worth $27 million. Ergo, it's a steal to give up $40 million and a draft pick for the right to pay him $40 million over his age 31, 32, and 33 seasons? Actually, you're right, "steal" is the word I'd use to describe that...but I think I'd be using in the sense of "Stealing money". WAR is just one way of looking at it and in this case not relevant.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 01:08 PM) What's funny is that Dunn isn't even the worst player on the Sox but people hate him. People just hate strikeouts. Anyone that would have booed 19 year old Courtney Hawkins should have been blown up immediately though. I think the treatment of Dunn by the fans is frustration that he's still on the team and this is the way to get that message to management. Sox management must have thought there wasn't a problem otherwise he wouldn't be at the event.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 12:22 PM) http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/al-c...ins-tigers.html Apparently Ervin Santana's price may have dropped all the way to 3/40M. Everybody still horribly against a 3 year deal? At that price he's a steal, no reason not to sign him.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 12:10 PM) The sox really messed up here. Dunn has been hearing it from the fans for a while now because of his s*** performance and high salary, so wtf was the front office thinking when they asked Dunn to attend Soxfest? Talk about setting the guy up for failure. Bad idea by the Sox for asking, bad idea by Dunn for accepting. Absolutely, the Sox are to blame here. The only reason I can think of for inviting Dunn is that Courtney Hawkins was next on the Soxfest depth chart.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 11:01 AM) Your posts get more and more ridiculous by the day. Since you brought it up again, I don't respect your opinion either.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 09:39 AM) Not worth the dread as a fan or not worth the dread as a GM? Because it's always worth it to get value out of your players as a GM. He may be frustrating to watch (I'm with you there) but he doesn't actually cost us much during the rebuild. I guess it gives them the chance to move Viciedo to DH and keep De Aza but it might be too early for that anyway. Are you afraid he'll teach the new guys bad habits or something, or are your sensibilities so offended you just can't take him anymore? I think he costs the team good will as we heard with the episode at Soxfest. I also think keeping him makes the organization look cheap in the eyes of the common fan and provides them with a reason to question the rebuild.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 25, 2014 -> 11:14 PM) Except Dunn's contract isn't really a sunk cost. That term doesn't apply when you have the possibility of removing the liability in the future. If Dunn plays even a little better than he did last year or in 2012, he's potentially a tradeable player, and perhaps one from whom we can scratch out a tiny bit of marginal value. The cost of his salary isn't sunk since there's potential to remove it. And the people saying "I don't want to pay him to play for another team" ARE regarding the cost of his contract as sunk. They are saying that if the money's getting paid out of our pockets no matter what, they'd rather keep his 30-40 HRs in Chicago. And yes, the people paying for tickets absolutely have the right to behave like dicks. That doesn't make them not dicks. Scratching out a tiny bit of marginal value isn't worth the dread that accompanies him. Even when he does something good like walk, it takes three hits to score him. Dunn is a relic of the way baseball used to be played and has no business on a rebuilding team.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 25, 2014 -> 11:21 PM) A million or less. He'll go for a lot more than that. My guess is around $5M + incentives.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 25, 2014 -> 09:27 PM) I would be much more willing to take a low dollar, one year shot at Johan, versus Ervin. How low a dollar?