Marty34

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 30, 2014 -> 07:59 PM) LOL. Casual fans don't buy into rebuilds at all. That's why they are "casual" fans. That has not been my experience. Casual Sox fans understand the team needs to rebuild, but they don't understand why they are keeping Dunn. The "maybe they can get something for him" argument is met with a rolling off the eyes. In this case I think the casual fan is right.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 30, 2014 -> 06:24 PM) The fans want wins. They will react more negatively to a s***tier record without Dunn than they will react to a better record with Dunn. Unless Dunn represents a 20-win swing, no they won't. The casual fan isn't going to buy into this rebuild as long as he's still on the roster because his presence serves no purpose.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 30, 2014 -> 06:22 PM) Any organization that listens to its fans on personnel is stupid. Normally, I'd agree with you, but Dunn is toxic. The Sox dont want him, he doesn't want to be here, and the fans are ticked at both for this situation continuing.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 30, 2014 -> 02:47 PM) That logic works for us, but it doesn't work at all for the casual fanbase and it doesn't work at all for the players. Dunn blocks no one important and makes the 2014 team more competitive. And you've already paid for him, like you said. The frustration of not having a prayer to win on any given night is poison for young players over the course of six excruciating months. And when August rolls around, the fanbase will be watching House of Payne instead. The Astros are proving right now that rock bottom hurts. I've become a believer that throwing some money at keeping your head above water during a transition makes sense so long as it doesn't get in the way of the process. Dunn does not get in the way in 2014. The fans do not want Dunn on the team.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 28, 2014 -> 04:02 PM) As long as Dunn hits fairly well the first few months of the season, and as long as the Sox are not in 1st place in July... Dunn will get traded near the deadline to a contender, in exchange for a lottery ticket prospect at best (org filler at worst). Someone like Andy Wilkins will play the LHH DH role for a few months if he does well at AAA, if not, they'll just rotate other guys through that slot. Then we'll see someone new at DH for 2015, possibly Viciedo if he progresses, possibly someone outside the org. In any case, he isn't going anywhere right now because right now he gets nothing of value. Sox fans hate Dunn. The atmosphere at the park is already depressing because it's 85% empty, hearing 6k try and muster up enough to boo a guy makes you not want to go to that park. He needs to go ASAP.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 08:44 PM) What. WAR is not a predictive stat. If you want a stat that predicts a player's slugging percentage going from .536 to .277 in one year then I'd say you're out of luck. fWAR, by the way, had Dunn at an average of 1.5 WAR for his last 3 years in before the White Sox, so it's not like WAR was saying Dunn was an amazing bargain at $14m per. It's one level of dumb to judge a statistic based on one player, it's another level to completely misconstrue what the statistic says before doing so. WAR, fWAR, I really don't care when it comes to deciding whether a contract is good when it is signed.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 07:47 PM) Thankfully no team employing Bill James or anyone like that has recently won a World Series, so Adam Dunn's collapse not being predicted is the only plausible data point. Yes, pay no attention to the Red Sox top 5 payroll. Talk to me when James starts racking up the championships with the Rays.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 06:56 PM) Except 34 year old Santana will very likely suck. We're not even sure he's good now. Here's his last 5 seasons by fWAR, starting with the most recent: 3.0, -1.0, 2.6, 1.9, 1.1 That averages out to 1.56, where a league average player is roughly 2.0. And you want to give up ~$15m/yr and a top 50 draft pick for his decline years? I could not give one damn about WAR and contracts. As stated earlier in the thread, some bootleg WAR related formula told me the Sox got a fair deal when they signed Dunn.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 06:53 PM) Hahn has said that he does not want to add free agents that don't fit the long term plan through free agency especially that cost a draft pick. Also, Hahn mentioned that the way to win in his mind and I completely agree with is from within your own organization. That's the kind of original thinking I love about Hahn. ;-) He needs to put his money where his mouth is and hire scouts/player development people from the Cardinals, Braves, and Rangers to name a few teams then because that sad sack group headed by Buddy Bell is not going to get it done.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 05:46 PM) It would also be ~50 million without him. Santana affords them the ability to deal Danks.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 05:22 PM) You'd rather have a 34 year old Ervin Santana than a 28 year old Jose Quintana? Imagine the haul the Sox would be able to get for Quintana and still go forward with that rotation? Oh and by the way the payroll for 2016 would be ~65M with Santana.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 04:55 PM) And you want to push chips in to add a mid-rotation starter? This is the point Marty. The team will probably be bad and Ervin Santana isn't going to fix it. There's no point in wasting resources on him right now. Resources need to go to things with the potential for surplus value. Post-prime 3 fWAR pitchers on the free agent market do not do this. We disagree. I'd love to see a rotation of Sale, Hoffman, Johnson, Santana, and Beck in 2016.

If you thought last year was tough to go through . . . You haven't seen anything like a team that struggles to score runs and lacks rotational depth. Those 200 innings that PeavySantiago pitched last season have to made up by someone(s). The Sox could be unwatchable by June with this rotation.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 12:16 PM) I have never seen a group of fans so opposed to increasing the talent level of their team. Isn't that the truth. The two wild card system makes building through the draft much less important. When you have a pitcher like Sale you want to maximize his postseason opportunities. Protecting a 2nd round pick like its Fort Knox is silly.

Like it or not the Sox have assembled much of their core to go around Chris Sale already. A second round pick does little to maximize the franchises best asset Chris Sale and his contract. That second round pick maybe useful to a post-Sale White Sox.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 11:27 PM) I mean, Hahn himself said something similar on the Score yesterday. He just said no SPs that cost a draft pick. Code for not wanting to spend money. There were pitchers available who did not cost a pick.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 09:15 PM) Uh guys. This is all completely irrelevant now. Hahn has already said they won't sign a player that could cost drat pick, he's also said they aren't interested in signing a FA pitcher and he's also said they went after Tanaka based on his age and talent. So what's the fuss over? For those in favor of signing a FA starter, might I suggest sending an email to Hahn and co. since hes the one negotiating deals instead of arguing over something thats an improbability. I think those of us advocating signing a starter that requires draft pick compensation realize Hahn isn't going to do it, but is it really the right thing to do? You know for all the hope of spending to fill holes this offseason the Sox have gotten away really cheap so far . . .

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 06:35 PM) Lets make this clear: THE WHITE SOX ARE NOT SIGNING ERVIN SANTANA. IT IS A STUPID IDEA. RICK HAHN IS NOT DOING ANYTHING THAT WILL COST THE TEAM A DRAFT PICK BECAUSE THAT WOULD BE STUPID AND RICK HAHN IS NOT STUPID. WHY ARE PEOPLE STILL GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THIS? WE ARE FEEDING A TROLL THAT IS LOOKING TO GET FED. THIS HAS TO STOP. MARTY I ONLY HAVE 1 QUESTION: WERE YOU AT SOXFEST ASKING HAHN WHY AJ PIERZYNSKI ISNT ON THE TEAM ANYMORE? YOUR THOUGHTS ON THIS TOPIC ALIGN PERFECTLY WITH THEIRS. I have yet to make a Soxfest. Unfortunately, complications that can arise with my disability when it gets this cold out prevent me from getting out during the dead of winter. Even a short trip to and from a van can cause problems for me.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 05:06 PM) Isn't there a draft and INTL period every single year? These guys stocks rise and fall all the time, you know that. The draft pick is a great thing to have, it is very high, but give Santana 1-2 years where he's quality and put him on the trade market and there is serious value there. You're looking at 3 good prospects there or maybe 1 very good or great prospect plus more, and the return you get is made up of players your entire org has been scouting WITHIN the MiLB system, meaning you are seeing how they are doing against the best MILB comp at that level, everybody is using wooden bats, etc. It's going to be a lot easier for scouts to get a handle on guys who have been doing it at the MiLB level & have accumulated a bit of a track record in the process. Marty isn't wrong all of the time ya know. He's right about the pitching, you can always trade it if it's good. Thanks UC, I appreciate the kind words especially since we've had our differences in the past. You never have enough pitching and I don't understand the idea of when we need it, we'll spend the money then. It's like buying a furnace in the winter even though you have money for it in the summer.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 04:40 PM) THEN HOW ARE THEY GOING TO RECOUP THEIR DRAFT PICK BY TRADING ONE? They don't have young SP depth. They need Johnson and Beck to fill spots in the rotation. If those guys are bust, not much behind them.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 03:48 PM) By fWAR, Santana's 2013 was his third best season. He is overrated. The big dogs are ALWAYS on the prowl for free agent pitching. Let them overpay for it. We lost 99 games and have a glut of young SPs that need innings. Why you want to create a roster logjam at the cost of $60m and an early second round pick is beyond all of us. The White Sox do not have a glut of young SP. Sale, Quintana, Johnson and . . . ?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) HOW THE F*** DO YOU KNOW THAT? WAR told me. Seriously though, the big dogs will be on the prowl again next year for starters and I believe the market will be higher because of it.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 03:32 PM) You keep saying this while ignoring the fact that there are many middle-of-the-road-wrong-side-of-30 pitchers set up to be FA's next year. None a better deal than what you can get Santana for this year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 03:32 PM) But if we need depth that badly how will SP be a position of strength we can use to recoup our investment by trading away a SP? If Paulino works out and he's at Charlotte that's best case scenario, that is what we want.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 03:30 PM) I see, so we're going to bench one of the guys you want to trade, keep a pitcher who is ready for the bigs in the minors for no reason, and Danks (another of the guys you say we're going to trade to recoup the losses in stupidly signing Santana) is going to get hurt. In other words, we can't trade those guys because they're all terrible and have no value. I think that means we need our 2nd round pick even more! It's called depth B.