Marty34

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 05:45 PM) If you're counting on a guy you're drafting in 2014 to be a major contributor to your next competitive team, you're circling 2017 on the calendar. That's a rush even for most college guys, they don't carry you as rookies and they need some time in the minors. So what's the point of spending the money on Tanaka's first 3 seasons if you're not putting a roster out there which can compete along with him those first few years? May as well wait until the next Japanese phenom comes along. The odds are there'll be another one in the next 3 years, we've had 3 in 8 years now. By keeping Sale the Sox plan better be to compete over the next three years. A Tanaka/Hoffman or Kolek plan is one that that could allow the Sox to deal Danks/Quintana to fill offensive holes.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 05:37 PM) that's a plan to compete in 2017. Why are we signing Tanaka in that case? I don't understand.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 05:27 PM) This is absolutely true. However, of your list, Abreu is the only one whose contract could end up a burden, thus hampering us beyond his own lack of production, and even that only happens if he's a total bust. I think the Sox would sign Tanaka for 7 years at $11M per without skipping a beat. But he's not going to accept that figure. Tanaka is a riskier move than those Hahn has already made and it impacts us in ways those other moves do not. OTOH, maybe Tanaka is a $25-30M per pitcher for 7 years at an average salary that pays him something like $20M per. Tanaka would be a terrific bargain in that event; but what is the likelihood of that happening? I posted other massive contracts in this thread to consider. They usually don't come out smelling like roses. In our case, if we were a contender, a WS title during the 2014-17 seasons would mitigate a lot of that risk, and those benefits would make the potentiality of a bad deal seem less frightening, however we are not on that kind of ground and we are not able to play that kind of game. The fastest path to the Sox contending is to leverage Sale's contract to put together a dominant starting rotation. Signing Tanaka and drafting Hoffman/Kolek is a plan that could do just that.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 03:32 PM) If the choice is Tanaka at $20M per and 6-8 years I think you just fold your cards and go home. The odds of that working out are going to be pretty small because the deal is going to likely be at its greatest value in the early going (when the Sox are still building) and at its least value near the end, when the Sox should be in their contention window. There is also a potentially catastrophic consequence to be seen should the Sox go all in for Tanaka, get him, and then decide to "rush" this rebuilding thing. While keeping the losing to a minimum is preferable, you should never rush through this. The Sox have already chosen to rush this rebuilding by choosing to trade for near-ready prospects. The Tanaka signing 4 years down the road will be the least of this team's worries if Abreau, Garcia, Eaton, et al flop.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 08:33 AM) The Cubs should have plenty of room for Tanaka. This is a team that was rocking $140M+ payrolls a few years ago and still has been over $100M under the Ricketts family despite a big chunk of revenue being used to pay off their debt. On top of that, they just got $25M in extra national TV deal money. Given that they only have $32M in payroll committments for 2015, there is no doubt in my mind they could easily fit Tanaka in their long-term plans. They're also negotiating their WGN TV deal, they have more than enough money. The Sox chance lies in how creative they are willing to be. Tons of money up front with a 3-4 year player out and being competitive over a 6-7 year offer. It's a longshot still.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 10:42 AM) I love Danks and all he's done, but if they could seriously just give Danks away right now, I wouldn't care. I understand, but Tanaka would buy them time in hopes that he rehabs enough to get something back. As of today, Danks is an important part of the rotation.

The addition of Tanaka would, if things broke correctly, allow the Sox to deal Quintana and Danks over the next couple of years. That's a big reason .why it would be a very good signing

Things that I think are truths about Tanaka and the Sox 1. All things being equal, Tanaka will sign with an NL team. AL teams have to pony up for pitching because it's perceived as a tougher league. 2. The Sox aren't going to be the highest bidder. The Sox have to be competitive with the overall offer while giving him an out option after three or four years.

The Sox should do something like 6y/$120M, The first 3y are at $25M per with an option for him to play out the remainder of his deal at $15M per or go to arbitration after year 3.

Hahn's next step should be an extension for Ventura. No point of having him signed only through year one of the rebuild.

Even if he went belly up, given the Sox future payroll obligations, I just can't see how Tanaka at even $25M per would be that much worse than the Danks contract.

QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 12:26 PM) My presumption is that you could get both Shields and Lowrie for $150. If not, move onto something else. The idea of Tanaka being an ace is a big assumption. I think he's a #3 guy. As Dick Allen pointed out Tanaka is just 25. If he is only a 3, he's going to be a 3 for a long time. There's a lot of value in that.

No reason the Sox should not be in the $125-$150M bidding range.

QUOTE (Waygodai @ Dec 20, 2013 -> 02:34 PM) Fair nuff, I’ll give the dude one more chance. If Beckham deserves one, so does the Missile. Me? Before even knowing how high the upside of the Sox core talent is going forward, I’d like the whole organization, not just Ramirez, to display more – how to say in Swahili, ah yes: Fundamentals. No, not the phony-hollow buzzword Ozzie & adoring media have been smugly throwing around all these years; not bunting for bunting sake, stealing for stealing’s sake…. “teaching Jon Garland or Gavin Floyd to be a mang” by leaving him out there at 120 pitches against Jason Kubel, when he’s clearly gased, rolling curveball after curveball…..or whatever the F’ else the Oney-Cowley braintrust thought the word ‘fundamentals’ stood for. I mean, *real* fundamentals. That include but by no means are limited to: **--real scouts vs. Dave Wilder flimflam men. **--real minor league instructors vs. loyalty hires that warmedackles of Reinsdorf’s heart in ‘86 **--GM resourcefulness & due diligence to avoid being snookered by damaged goods like Jeff Marquez, Simon Castro, Felix Diaz, Nestor Molina, Zach Stewart, Tyler Flowers, et al **--actual advance scouting b4 each series, so maybe other teams rookies bums don’t look like Cy Chen…while our pitchers, in turn, don’t end up throwing say Delmon Young or Wilson Betemit knee-high fastballs middle-in, time after time after time **--hitting coach that understands value of drawing walks **--footwork, technique, angles, routes, jumps, reads; blocking plate, straddling the bag; throwing to right base, cut-off man…that are at least ML average quality. **--knowing which league & what ballpark, and what time of the year you are currently playing in. (ya know, stuff like maybe NOT bunting in the 1st inning off a Fly-ball pitcher at the Cell in July with 3-4-5 sluggers coming up…with Zach Stewart as the SP for your team) **--Team leaders like Konerko, Peavy NOT being selfish by either hiding or insisting on “heroically” playing through a nagging injury that could be fixed through a relatively minor surgical procedure or prolonged rest. **--Less than 15 throws to execute a basic CS or pick-off run-down. **--not sleepwalking through coaches’ signs & otherwise botching hit-n-run **--NOT having the opposing dugout pick your pockets Joe Nossek style every other game. **--not letting the inmates run the mixed-metaphor convention, i.e. NOT letting Jake Peavy, John Danks or 75 year old Contreras, Colon talk the team into letting them come back 3 months early… and then almost right away having them throw 110-115 higher-stress pitches in a 3-run game while your bullpen is not only rested but is starting to get rusty, with Thornton not having pitched for a week **--Don Cooper not being quite so stubborn & thin-skinned. Just take it down from ‘11’ to ‘9’, Coop. **--generally being aware that baseball is basically about breaking down games into individual mini-games within a game, aka ‘innings’… which in turn are built through situationally managing of ‘outs’ & strikes-balls (say, on 2-0 Albert Pujols may be 1300 OPS beast, while on 0-2 is sub-700 OPS or whatever). That’s how you amass these mythical things called “rallies”. **--OBP isn’t inherently evil, and your mistress #4 is not going to leave you if you take a walk with 2 out and 1st base open while down by 4 runs in the 9th when the opposing pitcher is visibly wild and refuses to give in.... **--AJ spending more time in film room & less time gawking at some Gators game. **--actually bothering to properly position both OF and IF… and then --gasp! – calling for pitch sequence that actually takes advantage of that shift, rather than completely undermine it, LOL **--Dunn not being fat, picking up a bat in the off-season, actually remembering LF-LCF exist. **--Alexei eating something, lifting something, at least once in a great while. **--#2 hitter NOT trying to pullevate pitches 2 feet outside the strike-zone to LF – all while the lead-off hitter is on base, the opposing pitcher seems distracted by his dancing over at 1st, is not very good pitching out of the stretch, the infield is pulled up at DP depth, thus creating a big hole on the right side through which even a semi-weak grounder would bounce for a hit….leading to a 1st & 3rd, no outs situation with the making of a knock-out rally **--speaking of which, baserunners like Uribe and De Aza spending less time seemingly devising clever schemes of how to get thrown out on the pads in increasingly more clownish ways…. And more time actually paying attention to how many outs there are, the OF positioning, IF positioning, the identity of the opposing pitcher who’re sideway glancing at them, what year it is --- in order to be able to go from 1st to 3rd on a single up the middle; to score from 2nd with less than 2 outs, and other “unsexy” things that over long season win games. **--Remembering that not only there is NO difference between a HR that is 450 feet and one that just baaarely makes it out at the 315 foot sign… but that shortening the swing, esp. with 2 strikes, esp. against a pitcher with big-time stuff, will make it far MORE likely that the sweet spot of the bat will find its way to the center of the ball juuuust as it’s crossing the plate…. **--no Mackowiak, Swisher, Rios, De Aza in CF. No Dunn in LF. No Dye potted plant or broken down Quentin in RF. No Konerko at 1B. No AJ or Flowers behind home plate. No Keppinger at 2B. **--no Randy Williams, Will Ohman against Robinson Cano in a high leverage situation just because it’s lefty-on-lefty. Those of you who watch a lot of Sox games, I am sure could add a lot more examples to the list. Baseball Fundamentals or Smartball or ‘common freakin’ sense’ don’t sound glamorous or important….. but over the course of a marathon season, esp. in a fairly tight division race…. they really matter. If Hahn succeeds in finally purging that old culture, we’ll see some real effin’ fundamentals result in some exciting times on the Southside. Hope springs eternal, yay! That's a good list. I'd like to add that they need to fix fixable problems in a more timely fashion. I.E. don't waste six weeks hoping Viciedo can hit right-handers when you're in a pennant race or don't keep pitching Nate Jones when he isn't getting anyone out.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Dec 21, 2013 -> 12:57 PM) I love how folks assume these sign-and-flips always work. Those who've fallen in love with Theo's return for Feldman need to take a look at the totality of his flipping scheme - more miss than hit, and not inexpensive. It's not an endorsement for flipping more an indictment on "closers."

Signing Ryan Madson and dealing him at the deadline would be best option.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 05:26 PM) Why? Seriously, who is worse? Sale get worse? Quintana get worse? Danks get worse? Possibly, but not obvious why any of them would, they're more stretched out now The remaining 2 slots were filled by Axelrod (20 starts), Santiago (23 starts), Peavy (13 starts), Reinzo (10 starts), Johnson (5 starts), and Floyd (5 starts). Out of those starts we got an ERA of 4.47. I think it's possible that Quintana regresses and the 4 & 5 starters are unknowns.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 04:25 PM) The White Sox were 4th in the AL in innings from their starters last year with a pretty solid ERA, and that's with Dylan Axelrod taking a starting role for 2 months. I don't think they repeat that as currently constituted.

The biggest area of concern is not enough quality innings from the starters.

The biggest area of concern is not enough quality innings from the starters

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 06:17 PM) If we're going to spend $150M, I'd rather get Choo for 7 years. This would have the added effect (benefit?) of nearly forcing a dumping of Tank, which would make some here happy. Not advocating this, BTW. The Sox need to leverage the Sale contract to find the biggest competitive advantage possible. In my view that is taking a chance on another frontline starter via free agency and drafting a potential one with the third pick. In 3-4 years, if it turns out they have the best top 3 starters in MLB I'll take my chances filling in whatever positional holes there are.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 06:13 PM) That is his argument, sure. That's not the words you put in his mouth Oh I get it, he is advocated the money "be spread around." I forgot that because when I asked on who there was no response. "My bad" as the kids say.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 05:08 PM) Are they going to develop 0 starting pitchers before 2017? What is it that you're saying?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 05:04 PM) It's difficult to argue that the Sox shouldn't be heavily involved in due diligence for Tanaka. He should be considered an option. Whether or not they choose to enter the bidding depends ENTIRELY on their internal assessment of his abilities and upside -- an assessment to which we have no insight and which may or may not be completely different from public or even internal club consensus. If they don't get him, it won't necessarily be because they didn't think they had the payroll space. And that's fair enough. The idea that it's beyond the level of acceptable risk for the Sox because it's likely to be in the $150M range just isn't correct though.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 04:59 PM) well, it had to do with declining velocity, strikeouts and league strength, as well as scouts perceptions but why bother explaining, you wont read it anyways in other words he doesn't think Tanaka will be a frontline starter.