BamaDoc

At 39 years old, he had ten complete games for the Sox!

Here is something to look at on 16-30 which speaks to some depth problems. I count 8 unproven teenagers. 2 older unproven prospects and 4 relievers. The two starting pitchers are Flores and Pilkington who probably profile as #5 or reliever. At least with the teenagers, it won't impact Rule 5 status for awhile.

If he plays in the fall and does well or even next spring, Burger may become our best trade chip. Unless you keep him as legitimate depth for Moncada. Wish he hit left handed.

Nothing fits this year better than the 2020 season beginning Jan 2021 and the 2021 season begins Jan 2022! This will totally mess people up in discussions etc. Should have said cancelling 2020 but moving 2021 up to Jan 2021 from July.

I wonder with the way he has outperformed projections for years that when he loses something it may get ugly really quick?

I understand but I wonder if putting men on base and running up a pitcher's pitch count is adequately reflected in the models. Most teams don't have 6-8 guys in a lineup capable of hitting 20 bombs in a normal year(4+ at 30+). I can't believe having a lot of one or two guys on and no outs causes you to score less. Now if a lineup has one or two power guys, I understand them not doing so but we have several guys who can hit it out opposite field and seem to stay on the ball better. Jack Nicklaus was once told his swing nearly fit the perfect swing model. Supposedly he suggested they look at their model.

I love the running game and putting pressure on the other team but the analytics prove otherwise. I am big on hitting the other way and beating shifts. To answer your question on how is stealing different than the other activities. Stealing the base is a voluntary activity that requires a 80% success rate to justify the potential out whereas the others are much more "required" regular activities of playing the game. Stone commented last night on Robert learning to allow some balls to drop rather than dive for a ball depending on the situation in a game to avoid injury. Eloy some people want to DH for fear of him getting hurt in the outfield on "required" play.

In the Earl Weaver Baltimore Orioles days, they had a reliever named Don Stanhouse. He was nicknamed "Full pack" because Weaver would go into the tunnel and smoke an entire pack before his inning was over. Thats how Alex makes me feel, just glad I don't smoke! Hmmmmm Alex "six pack" Colome.........

Thanks for doing this. I was working on something similar. I agree with most of your thoughts. I think Leury could be back as a super sub. Prior to his injury, he was handling the role well. 3.5 million not outrageous and with the presumed return to a 25 man roster, positional flexibility will matter. Catcher: I expect McCann to leave in order to be a #1. It is why I didn't want to trade Collins as he will be the number two. His left handed bat helps balance things out. Defense needs to improve but hasn't been horrible. RF: Mazara has the rest of the season to show that he can at least be a platoon player. It may be a situation where he is offered a number and if he doesn't take it he is allowed to leave ala Yolmer last year. His production doesn't merit the arbitration raise he would get. May be a left handed veteran cheap free agent in part depending on Engel showing he is a platoon guy through the entire year. He has really surprised me. Not sure you have to cement the position as you may be looking at the number 7-8 guy in a lineup. Mendick vs Yolmer: Similar role and not sure either makes cut if Leury back. Mendick struggling at plate a bit but is cheaper and can be stashed at AAA for depth. Yolmer should be grateful to be back and his FA foray should have been a humbling experience. Rotation: Agree Gonzales optioned declined. Could keep as long man/spot start if cheaper but I don't think he is much more than 1 maybe twice through lineup guy. Rodon will want to start with free agency looming but he really needs to do whatever leads to health. I could be mean and say he starts until injured then Kopech comes up but think Kopech stays down more than a couple starts....mean. Bullpen is the biggest need. Colome at 10 million isn't cheap, he doesn't pitch pretty, but gets the job done. I could see a resign if terms are favorable but he may chase the biggest contract. He has earned that right but if he leaves you probably add two guys at minimum one lefty. Really seeing the pain in the bullpen without Bummer. The young guys will be getting valuable experience this year so you should have a better idea but last night it looked like Heuer was feeling the pressure. Not singling him out, they all have had moments good and not so good. Lambert looked good but I don't know how bad he is injured. You may find a veteran bullpen guy willing to come for a chance at a ring.

It makes sense. Medical checks big. After world series makes sense. It was cool to see your teams draft pick play but if he blows out his arm, not so cool.

I may be wrong on the exact percentage, but I believe analytics show you need to be successful at about 75-80% rate to make stealing worthwhile. More importantly is going first to third, scoring from second on a single, scoring from first on a double and beating double plays by hustling. So far I would say we have done that pretty well. When the offense is clicking, it isn't worth the out or as some point out the injury risk.

This year they probably build him towards 80-100 pitches. Don't think innings will necessarily come into play. Next year maybe innings limits although he will be two years out from TJ. In the future, I expect a very solid dependable mid rotation or better starter who you can expect 6 plus innings most nights.

If we are talking to Brewers re Hader, how about Suter instead.

Cleveland view: You replace Clevinger with Plesac. Get a young bat in Naylor who helps now. Quantrill helps now and was highly regarded and young. Prospects you get a good left prospect and a Lindor replacement(not saying as good)

For those asking RE prospects. MLB.com has all three prospects as 50 rated. Dunning and Stiever are 50 rated

Looks like a sellers market. If I am Hahn and know Bummer and Rodon progressing and would be available playoff time, I think I stand pat. Afraid the prices don't match the return. It is okay for others to disagree, just my opinion.

Doesn’t involve us but would Gallo for Clevinger make sense?

c) Don't make those trades. I'll take c

Thanks CWS! I am still not sure our young hitters will handle good pitching this year which is another reason I hesitate. What we don't know is the status of Bummer. We are really starting to see and feel his absence. If we know he is out for the year, it again makes me hesitate. I have dreamed about how fun a bullpen with Hader and Bummer(Both healthy and effective) could be for the next four years.

If people are thinking about this years playoffs, you need to remember the 28 man roster. The last few years have seen teams succeed well with one time thru the lineup strategies. With the 28 man roster that will be easier to do than in years past. We don't have a lot of guys you are going to pinch hit for. Our switches will be for defense or maybe pinch running. Giolitto and Kuechel give you two solid pitchers. Cease has the stuff by seasons end maybe he is your third. Often you only need three. If baseball goes to the bubble for playoffs, maybe you don't have all the off days and need more. But if you go one time through the lineup, Gio Gonzales, Lopez, Rodon creates mismatches or forces teams to pinch hit early etc. and could be quite successful. Longer term, the cost of an ace is huge. Your best bet is to constantly develop them. Thats why I hold Kopech as he has ace potential. Giolitto can be a free agent after the 2023 season. If the rebuild has taught us anything is it is you need a ton of pitching depth in prospects as not all will develop or they may be derailed by injury. The biggest market inefficiency that I see now is that starting pitching is paid at a higher rate than ever while each year pitching less innings than ever. I think you can make the case that if a pitcher doesn't sign the team friendly extension early in his career you treat him like a running back in the NFL. That is callous and cruel but it may fit the economic reality. It may be wiser to build better bullpens and churn thru starters. Our team operates on a budget whether we like it or not. We have a core group of position players signed that looks great. I expect McCann to leave for playing time so Collins serves a purpose longer term. The future is bright and the window is open. Don't start closing the window by getting over excited now and depleting the pitching depth we will need.

The expanded playoffs has created a situation where there are a lot less teams selling/dumping players. That has created higher demand for the few teams willing to trade. When supply is low and demand high, prices go up. I think this is going on and either something gets done last minute if the price drops or we sit anything major out.

Tie = safe

Here is a thought I just had. Are the announcers paid by the Sox and provided to the network or employees of the network with the Sox having approval. Jason has gone through his growing pains. He has called games for terrible teams. He has to be enjoying this and can see the future. The Sox should sign him to a ten year deal with perhaps options or a rolling ten year deal. He could be the voice for a generation of new Sox fans who will be showing up now that the team is good. Sox have done long term extensions for players who wanted the security. Perhaps Jason would like that as well.

Correction. A ton of homers by your team lol. I remember Harry with Sox and the disappointment in his voice. Hawk also

And winning fixes a lot of things. A ton of homers has to be fun for announcers.