3E8

QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 14, 2010 -> 12:51 AM) Brett Gardner? I'd say Floyd is worth Gardner. Plus, he's getting wasted by the Yankees because of Derek Jeter. Don't see the Yankees wanting to trade their 5-win OF with 2 years of service time for Gavin Floyd.

QUOTE (Paint it Black @ Dec 14, 2010 -> 12:46 AM) It's funny. In 4 years, the Phillies will have the two worst contracts in baseball on one team (Lee and Howard). If you really think a pitcher three years removed from pitching himself back into the big leagues will be worth the money in five years, well then I have ice to sell you in Alaska. He's a completely different pitcher than he was before 2008. Arguably the best in baseball since that time. With nearly 700 IP, we may be able to call the comeback legit at this point. And since Lee is a finesse pitcher, he skills should be more resilient to age than guys who rely on high velocity for success.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 14, 2010 -> 12:43 AM) If I am Kenny, I am seeing what the offers are for Danks, Floyd, Buehrle, and Jackson are right now I don't see what trading any of them is going to accomplish with the mindset that we are trying to win the division this year. We can't trade any for significantly better major league talent.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 13, 2010 -> 09:46 AM) If we really want to go into the numbers a bit, his career Babip is .293, and last year it came in at .316, the highest number against him in his career. And this is while his LD% was the lowest of his career, so he was not getting hit harder.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 12, 2010 -> 01:47 PM) Not to mention the fact that early in his career when he was making the minimum and far out performing it. This is the way the sytem has been set in baseball under paid early on and over paid at the end. Except Mark is still earning his pay. Going by Fangraphs' WAR as well as B-R.com's (which I think is more accurate for pitchers) Buehrle has been worth every penny of his current contract and then some.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 11, 2010 -> 01:17 AM) I know we have all seen it, but I've already watched it 30 times this week, so lets see it again. Greatest moment in Reality TV history: Here's an even clearer vid: http://tv.gawker.com/5710660/real-world-ch...rn-of-ct-part-2 More things I noticed. Johnny tries to punch or grab CT's dick. Also, the embarrassment face Abe makes for Johnny is priceless.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 10, 2010 -> 11:42 PM) I'd take Dominic Brown for Carlos. QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 11, 2010 -> 12:02 AM) You don't trade Quentin for Dominic Brown unless your scouts are CERTAIN he can put up at least Alexei Ramirez numbers. You guys do not understand the caliber of prospect that Domonic Brown is.

QUOTE (J.Reedfan8 @ Dec 11, 2010 -> 12:09 AM) Yet that guy in LF we have got hit 21 times (in a fluke year for him for HBP) inflating his OBP to .341. You're missing the point. Quentin has a history of being quite fragile, and has sustained injuries to both the wrist and hand while with the Sox. That he makes a habit of getting hit by pitches doesn't do anything to quell this concern.

I have no problem shopping Quentin. His lack of range in the outfield negates a significant portion of his offensive value, he cannot stay healthy, and much of his on-base skill relies in getting hit by the baseball. With Dunn and Konerko signed, we can more legitimately test the waters with Quentin. If someone wants to overpay, then by all means I'm for it.

Each year me and my friends do Beersmas. Everyone brings 12 GOOD beers to the event early in the morning. Then we draw an order and you pick a person ideally based on how much they know about and have access to good beers (but you don't know exactly what they brought). After that's done, you exchange your beer to the person that picked you and vice versa, and spend the rest of the day drinking.

He has embraced the dark side.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 01:12 AM) Pretty much. I despise hypothetical trades. I just don't understand how Teahen is ever mentioned in them. It's either got to be bad-contract for bad-contract swap or ship a lot of cash with him.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 02:06 AM) I will say this. I pretty much ignore the WAR factors for first basemen when it comes to defense. I realize Dunn is atrocious and it makes little sense for me to ignoring them for him specifically, but their are multiple first baseman who when I see their defensive WAR's it just doesn't pass or come close to my eye test. Dunn is not one of those guys (I know he stinks there and he does stink there), but I still have a hard time relying on that data set for 1st baseman. Same with catchers. You're not alone. The defensive WAR component does not include 1B picks. A guy like PK is closer to average 1B defensively overall because his terrific hands make up for his lack of range. So PK's WAR from defense isn't just. But we don't need a stat to confirm that Dunn is abominable in the outfield (where Ozzie said he will play) and near the bottom at 1B too.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 12:38 AM) I'd say Dunn's at least a 3.5 WAR player. He's remarkably consistent. He'll be between 3-3.5 if he never sees the field defensively. Since that's not gonna happen, 3 is a good projection.

QUOTE (Brian @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 10:21 PM) Holy Crap, CT! QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:21 PM) Well worth the wait. He picked up Johnny like a little rag doll, power-marched to the barrel, and slammed his b****-ass on it. Everything I had hoped for.

Peavy twitters, but his are infrequent and lame.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 5, 2010 -> 07:11 PM) 50 PAs. 1.158 OPS vs LH in Charlotte.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 5, 2010 -> 07:08 PM) Your big problem is...The M's just traded for Justin Smoak, who takes the spot that you'd want Viciedo at in an ideal world, 1b. In an ideal world, Viciedo would be able to play defense. But from what we saw last season, he doesn't have the best hands. He may have more value at DH.

In my offseason plan for another site, I suggested trading Viciedo to Seattle. The Mariners were last in MLB in both batting average and slugging, Vicideo's two main skills. They might be able to use him in their rebuilding process. The AL West has a ton of LH pitching talent (especially if the Rangers re-up Lee) which Viciedo absolutely mashes (.960 OPS this season vs. LH). Seattle declined the option on Branyan, so their DH spot is open. They also just traded 3B Lopez, but it'd be hard to imagine a strong defensive-minded team experiment with Viciedo there.

QUOTE (spiderman @ Dec 4, 2010 -> 03:01 PM) Do we think it's going to be a 3 or 4 year deal? I love Konerko, but his age (34) really concerns me. His 2009 season was great, but is it more likely that we regret giving him 3 years at $13 million per season or do we think we'll be happy with the production that we got out of this deal? I don't think 3/$13M would be regrettable, but I doubt PK will be worth 39 million dollars over the next three seasons. 2010 is clearly offensively abnormally high for PK. His offensive runs generated above replacement level in 2010 is greater than that of the previous three seasons, COMBINED. His 2010 BABIP, 41 points above career average. I'm wary to commit for three years to a guy exiting his prime. I'd rather do a short-term incentive-laden deal for Lee and possibly Berkman who have a good chance to be just as productive as PK in 2011. This will also grant us the two extra draft picks we need to replenish our horribly barren farm system.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 4, 2010 -> 02:33 PM) Here's one other thing worth noting...Dunn's HR's aren't exactly cheap shots. He might have a lot of warning track fly balls that aren't showing up here, but when he hits a HR, it goes. He had only 3 that were less than 383 feet. A pretty safe assumption for a guy that makes a career out of hitting deep flies. Below is Dunn's 2-year spray chart. You can see that there are several fly outs as well as base hits near the average outfield fence that US Cellular's short dimensions and/or wind tunnels could turn into home runs.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 4, 2010 -> 01:43 PM) The thing about Dunn's HR numbers is that it's actually kind of hard for him to increase them because of his hitting style. Over the last decade, he's homered on 10.5% of the plate appearances where he makes contact, and that has varied only by a little (except for 2002, from 10.2% to 10.9%). Ballpark effects, different pitchers, in shape, etc., really haven't mattered that much. Every time he hits the ball, it has a 1/10 shot of leaving the park. Unless something about that number changes...the only thing that would push his HR numbers higher would be fewer strikeouts, which just hasn't been his game. If you look at Dunn's full seasons playing at the Great American Ballpark ('03-'07), which is known to favor hitters, there is a noticeable difference in his HR rate for the home/away splits. For home, he had 108 HRs in 1583 PAs, and away 85 HRs in 1606 PAs. The home HR/PA rate is nearly 29% larger than the away HR/PA. US Cellular has been top-5 in least HR suppressing parks for the last three years, including least HR suppressing of all parks in 2010. Since Dunn will be playing half his games in a park with an even greater HR effect than the GAP, the argument could be made that next season will see Dunn eclipsing the 38 HR total he's had the past two years, and maybe his highest single-season HR total yet.

QUOTE (scenario @ Dec 4, 2010 -> 12:51 PM) People generally think about these deals as 'trading for a player'. Gotta remember... you're not trading a player... you're trading a player's contract. What the RedSox acquired is 1 year of AG's services at $5.5M + two draft picks if he left in free agency. What they offered the Pads had to provide fair value for that, plus some premium to make their offer more attractive than other teams. Even one year of Gonzalez at his '11 option salary is tremendously valuable. Looking at Fangraphs/B-R.com's WAR values for AG over the past two seasons, he's a 6+ win player. This translates to over $25M in value. Subtract his '11 salary, and the Red Sox are getting 20 million dollars in surplus value. The draft picks have some monetary value as well which is not insignificant. It strikes me as strange the Padres would to gamble somewhat on B prospects for the most valuable trade piece on the market.

QUOTE (SEALgep @ Dec 4, 2010 -> 12:02 PM) Kelly is supposed to be their top prospect, and a top of the rotation starter He's still a B-grade prospect. Projects more as a middle-rotation guy. Won't crack top 50 on anyone's lists. Too low to be the "main get" in a trade for a MVP-caliber player.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 4, 2010 -> 04:38 AM) Wonder who the Pads will get back. Early reports are Kelly, Rizzo, and Fuentes. Pretty underwhelming package.