3E8

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 14, 2011 -> 12:41 PM) As of yesterday, before the Thome signing, the combined projections I calculated (CAIRO, Bill James, Fan Projections) had the Twins at 90.1 wins. They had the Sox at 90.7. I think this move probably puts the Twins ahead in terms of projected wins based on WAR. Thome was worth 3.6 wins last year. I really doubt he does that again, but still, I think he'll be good for at least 1.5. Out of curiosity, how many wins did you calculate between Mauer/Morneau?

A fast car. Something even faster.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jan 12, 2011 -> 01:29 PM) Mediocre reliever with a big arm hangs around for over a decade, racks up only 27 career saves and still manages to pull in over $33M in his career. Good stuff. Why should a man in the pictures below earn anything less than $33M in his career?

He died.

Then batting runs = ((.385-.325)/1.21)*660 = 32.7. But you have 5 less runs.

I'm okay with the wOBA of .385. But I think if you're using a figure higher than James' prediction, it might be considered optimistic. And the batting runs in your calculation seem low considering your assumptions. What is your wOBA scale?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 07:05 PM) How often does fangraphs adjust their positional adjustments? I ask because I wonder if they're not still calibrated to the steroids era DH. Last year, the average AL DH had a .757 OPS (and the NL was obviously lower). Last year, the average NL 1b had an .812 OPS. The AL's was lower (no Pujols), but still 30 points higher than the average AL DH. Positional adjustments do not take offense statistics into account, only defense. The adjustments were arrived at after the SABR community analyzed loads of stats on players who had played multiple positions. This gave them an idea on exactly how difficult each position was to play in relation to another. Example, because catcher is such a difficult position to play, guys who can fit there have an inherent value which other players do not provide. So they get over a 10 run bump (for a full season) in positional adjustment. Because DH requires zero defensive ability, the positional adjustment takes nearly 20 runs away from them.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 06:44 PM) Let's just be clear about 1 thing...the reason why Dunn's WAR was the highest last year out of his career was that for once, UZR didn't hate his defense. Normally his defense counts for -1.5 to -3 wins. His bat has been worth 4-ish wins most every year. Right. And moving to the AL and becoming a DH, he'll get the automatic negative positional adjustment which will not allow him the chance to benefit from a very questionable UZR. Dunn's bat has been worth 4 wins exactly once. Two out of the past four years, his bat has not been worth three wins.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 06:23 PM) Yeah, Dunn, Konerko, and AJ alone put up like a 10 WAR last year (if memory serves). I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect a 14 WAR out of Donkey Kong, AJ, Crain, Ohman, and Morel. They did, but that was with Konerko and Dunn both posting the highest WAR either of them have in the past five years. My conservative estimate for them is 2.5 for PK and 3 for Dunn (looking at the most recent seasons, this is perfectly reasonable). Even being optimistic for both, say 3.5 wins apiece, in your 14 WAR prediction you'd have to get 7 wins from AJ/Morel/Crain/Ohman. That's a bit unrealistic.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 11, 2011 -> 01:30 PM) J4L's expectations are higher than most users'. I don't think that's a huge issue. I wouldn't give the off-season an A+ either. I think out of all the teams in baseball, the Sox might have had the 4th or 5th best off-season in terms of acquiring talent and spending responsibly and efficiently. I'd rate teams like the Brewers, Phillies, Red Sox, and the A's ahead of our off-season right now. I'd even consider the Tigers since they just added Penny. As it stands, I'd give The Sox FO an A- with room to improve to an A if they bring in a good 4th OFer. The Orioles have had an underrated offseason. Between Reynolds, Lee, Hardy, and Uehara, that's conservatively 9 wins worth of additions. Which is more than the White Sox added for much less money (they obviously had more spots to address, though). Even with their pitiful rotation, I think they'll be very close to a .500 team in 2011.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 10, 2011 -> 09:46 PM) The Federal Post Office Guy is Jake Peavy. I think Peavy looks like the bomb defuser in Hurt Locker.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 10, 2011 -> 09:52 PM) That was a gift wrapped TD Auburn just gave away. They are going to regret that. That pass reminded me of Clayton Richard trying to throw to first.

Since I doubt any of my albums will make the final list: 1. The Gay Blades - Savages | "trash" pop | lushbeat.com = 4.5/5 2. Hellogoodbye - Would It Kill You? | power pop | USA Today = 3.5/4 3. You, Me, And Everyone We Know - Some Things Just Don't Wash Out | power pop | ap.net = 82/100 4. Tokyo Police Club - Champ | indie/garage rock | metacritic.com = 71/100 5. Circa Survive - Blue Sky Noise & Appendage EP | prog rock | sputnik.com = 4.5/5

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 10, 2011 -> 05:43 PM) Wainwright, Carmona, and Lowe had all logged at least 160 IP in multiple seasons before their trips to the pen. Wilson is the one exception I have seen, but it remains to see how his 2011 goes. If he falls apart, the IP will be a very likely reason why. Sale has thrown 280 innings the past two seasons in college/cape cod/pro ball.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 10, 2011 -> 03:56 PM) Because if he spends this entire year in the pen and pitches 50-75 innings, there is zero reason to think his arm will be ready to handle 125 innings next year, let alone 200. That would be a serious strain on his arm. CJ Wilson, Adam Wainwright, Fausto Carmona, Derek Lowe...

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Jan 10, 2011 -> 12:59 PM) I found another superb IPA. Lagunitas Little Sumpin' Sumpin' Ale. Very tasty. Lagunitas is my favorite brewery. Because they distribute several of their beers to my area and each one has been equally delicious. Their Brown Shugga' made it to my top 10 list.

According to @gordonbeckham, day 1 of Camp Cora is complete and Morel, Alexei, and Tank look ready. And South Beach has good food.

Remember, this whole discussion started on a purely hypothetical situation that Sale turns into exactly Matt Thornton. Not more, not less. Thornton is an incredibly valuable reliever. In the past three years for MLB relievers, he trails only Mariano Rivera in WAR. Consistently good closers/relievers are not a dime a dozen. Otherwise they wouldn't be getting deals more than $10M on a year-by-year basis, or even multi-year deals eclipsing $40M. Why do so many relievers not live up to their contracts as Kalapse has pointed out before? Because the demand for them is so high, teams are forced to pay more than they are worth in order to obtain them. Of course we all want Sale to become a starter eventually. Near 200 innings of a successful Sale is better than just 70 out of the pen. But say the White Sox, for whatever reason, choose to keep Sale in the pen and delivers each year like we saw in his short stint last season (that's pretty similar to Thornton). While under team control, he would obviously be helping us win games by being an elite reliever while also providing tens of millions of dollars in surplus value over that time period. And that surplus value helps us not have to chance spending money on the back end of the pen, but on other areas of the team which can be upgraded more efficiently through free agency. In this silly hypothetical situation, the result is good for the White Sox in every way, and the draft pick was a huge benefit/success. There is no debating this.

God help that kid.

Did anyone else watch Bob's Burgers? I thought the pilot was a somewhat successful mix of clever and crude humor. Will give it another shot.

QUOTE (joeynach @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:16 PM) Im fine with him as a long term reliever, if he turns out to be the next Matt Thornton that would still be one hell of a draft pick. QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:18 PM) Honestly...for a pick in the first half of the first round...that'd be at best an adequate pick, and somewhat disappointing. QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 02:20 PM) quite disappointing. Average career WAR for 13th pick in amateur draft from 1965-2000: 6. Percent of picks in that time frame which have had career WAR of 1 or less: 72%. Basically, 3 out of 4 times, the 13th pick has been worthless. I'm not saying Sale shouldn't attempt to convert to starter with the White Sox. But if he turned out to be Matt Thornton, one of the best LH relievers in baseball, for six years with us, the pick of Sale would be nothing but a great success. Edit: forgot link. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?o...ype=junreg&

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 9, 2011 -> 11:27 AM) Its possible, but its also possible he's hit a wall. He lost a little velocity as the season went along Santos fastball velocity by month per http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/index.php April: 95.5 May: 95.5 June: 96.0 July: 95.4 Aug: 95.5 Sept: 95.3 Looks pretty consistent to me.

QUOTE (IamtheHBOMB @ Jan 8, 2011 -> 08:22 PM) You have to be joking me. Why. It was highly entertaining, Cage did a fantastic job in it, and the movie received mostly favorable reviews everywhere including four stars from Ebert.

QUOTE (FlaSoxxJim @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 11:32 PM) Wow, Nicholas Cage hasn't made a good film in a long time. Bad Lieutenant (2009)

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 12:38 AM) Aurelios. Top notch. I love their buffet. There's an Aurelio's with a buffet? Holy s***.