3E8

QUOTE (Cali @ Jan 8, 2012 -> 02:49 PM) I've grown increasingly bored with Modern Family this season. That first season was nothing short of brilliant, but the second season was a total letdown for me. It didn't pop the same way season one had and now into the third season it just seems like going through the motions. Claire is a shrew of a wife, Phil is an idiot with a heart of gold, Cam & Mitchell do stock cliche gay story line #475 etc. The show was never really reinventing the wheel, but creatively the stories and jokes were done better in season one. Agreed. The punchlines aren't as funny when they are crow-barred in.

I felt the original did a better job unraveling the murder mystery, and that it was superior to Fincher's remake. But I agree with Caulfield about how much more attractive Rooney Mara is. Noomi Rapace looks like Davey Havok from AFI.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jan 8, 2012 -> 10:34 AM) On a 2012 team full of questions, Sale and Peavy are the most important ones. If they fail they won't compete in the central. The current roster doesn't even project to be a .500 team. A failure from any number of guys ruins our already small chance at being competitive.

It will take much more than Peavy and Sale being better than projected for this team to compete for the division.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 6, 2012 -> 08:12 PM) At the end of the day, Floyd finishes the last 3 seasons around .500 with an ERA over 4.00. The days of 4.37 being a decent ERA are over. I doubt the Sox really want to pay him $9.5 million next year and realized Danks wasn't going to bring back what they were asking so Floyd probably won't next year either. Since they already signed Danks to an un JR-like contract for a pitcher, there's probably no chance they dip into that well again next year, I think this rumor is bunk, but I do think KW realizes if he wants to get something for Floyd now or at the deadline at the latest is the time to move him, and I think the return is smaller with every passing game. The number of AL starters who have thrown at least 574 innings averaging an ERA+ of 105 or better over the past three seasons like Floyd has? 10. And two of those guys just got $58M and $65M respectively. Floyd isn't a top of the rotation starter, but still valuable.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 6, 2012 -> 02:57 PM) Isn't the PCL the league where every park is a ridiculous hitters park and everyone's hitting numbers are inflated? Awfully impressive for your OPS to jump from .810-.830 range to 1.056 when moving up to AAA. The PCL does inflate offense. League average OPS last season in the PCL was just over .800. Still, 1.056 is significantly better than the league. Part of the increase might be explained by his .371 BABIP.

Please be Drabek.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 12:16 PM) Deck McGuire? For a #4 starter on a bad team? Sign me up. That's undervaluing Floyd a bit. He's been the #3 starter in one of the majors' best starting rotations. Just McGuire would be a disappointing return.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 09:12 AM) But Alexei made just over $1 million in his first year and Iguchi made just over $2 million. Cespedes will be making probably over $10 million in his first year. Alexei and Iguchi were never All-Star-level players, just solid ones. And for what Cespedes will make, you can't afford for him to provide just league-average offense. And as we saw Alexei and Iguchi peaked in their first years, too. Cespedes larger price tag will require more analysis by our front office. It remains to be seen how much he will actually get, I don't think it will be greater than $10M on a per year basis. We'll see. I threw out league-average just because that's essentially what Alexei was offensively his first year adjusting to more talented competition. Cespedes has a larger pedigree than Alexei, and would project to be a more valuable hitter. Even if he was just a league-average bat, that's worth about two wins for a healthy corner OF, and three for a CF (not counting any fielding value). The Sox outfield has been devoid of a player who can consistently provide that many wins for awhile. I wouldn't say Alexei peaked offensively his first season. It happens to be his best, but the last two years were almost identical to '08 once adjusted to the league. Iguchi peaking his first season makes sense, he was 30 when he debuted. Already on the downside of the aging curve.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 08:22 PM) But the problem is, if they never advanced past a ball pitching for years, then suddenly gets dumped into the big leagues, he's never had to adapt to tht kind of quality before. Any bad habits he's picked up would never have been challenged. For example we actually saw that with Contreras. In Cuba he could just strike people out constantly with the forkball. In the Us, he had to learn to feature the fastball first to get ahead of peolple before deploying te forkball...otherwise guys would lay off it and force him to throw a strike. And it took about 3 or 4 years and Cooper to get into a good habit and drop the bad habit...and he'd still fall back into it when he was struggling. Or he could be like Alexei, who came here when he was Cespedes' age, and provide league-average offense right out the gate. Iguchi similarly succeeded without any adjustment period. It's pretty obvious he has the tools. Our scouts have to determine whether or not he has the skill to make them useful at the big league level.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 04:55 PM) Right, so if the numbers were similar, you'd expect Cespedes to be garbage because he'd be fully developed. I guess I hope they are way better, of course. I wonder if some metrics/skills tend to translate from Cuba to the MLB more, such as walk rate or K rate or something. The pitching in Cuba has been said to be a similar level to high-A minor league ball. Cespedes has been putting up impressive batting lines since age 18. I don't know exactly what a league-average batting line is in Cuba, but a teenager in the US hitting the way Cespedes did against A-ball pitchers would be a top prospect on everyone's lists.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy suffered from a poor screenplay. The way Tomas Alfredson (Let The Right One In) beautifully shot the film kept it from being a disappointment. There is a really odd juxtaposition between plot development and soundtrack during the final scene that I enjoyed.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jan 3, 2012 -> 07:12 PM) Cowley is being a big doucher Redundant.

Rios doesn't get good jumps, his arm is abysmal, and he consistently makes bad decisions. He doesn't belong in CF. In 2011's Tango fan scouting report, Rios was the lowest rated CF.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 3, 2012 -> 11:54 AM) Is it me, or does Viciedo seem exactly like Yonder Alonso? Might be just you. Viciedo has more power and less plate discipline. I still think the best comp is Carlos Lee.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 3, 2012 -> 09:28 AM) So the total is ten years, essentially, with the initial four year deal and 6 additional "possible" years... Similar to the situation with Humber. Not quite. The six cost-controlled years don't start once Viciedo's initial four-year deal ends. He has already earned 123 days of service. So, if he were to stay in our organization until free agency, the total would be nine years.

My expectations for Viciedo have changed quite a bit over the past three years. I was too harsh on him in the past, and should've accounted for how aggressive the Sox were with Dayan considering his age. He's improved every season. Of over 100 batters in the International League last year who got at least 300 PAs, Viciedo was third-youngest. Yet he created runs 32% better than league average (per fangraphs' wRC+). That's impressive. Unfortunately, he's likely to give back runs while playing the outfield.

Just a suggestion, since there are so few participants, why not just everyone post their top 10 in this thread?

Yeah, the Jackson trade was a good one for us if looked at in a vacuum. The frustrating part was the absurd Teahen extension which necessitated that deal.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 31, 2011 -> 02:05 PM) Couldn't agree more. Always seems like KW gives up a fortune to get "his guys", but then he gets significantly less in return (at least since the Garcia trade to Phil). He probably should have been let go the moment he said he wasn't concerned with winning trades on 'The Club'.

According to his B-R.com page, Darvish has averaged over 8 innings per start for his career. He's thrown a complete game two out of every five starts.

Many people wonder where the Marlins got all this money they're throwing at free agents this offseason. But according to the business of baseball Forbes reports, they've been one of if not the most profitable team in baseball over recent history. Here is the Marlins' operating income from the last five published Forbes reports. Coincidence that the total is nearly identical to the $191M they gave to free agents so far? Yes, but funny how that worked out. Yr OI (Mil) Rank 10 20.2 14 09 46.1 1 08 43.7 1 07 35.6 2 06 43.3 1 Tot 188.9

You can use WAR if you like, since it is also league and park adjusted. My point was, no need to use traditional ERAs and insinuate or just flat out say Danks would be better than Latos if he too pitched in a NL bandbox. There are multiple metrics allowing for the comparison of players across different leagues/stadiums.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2011 -> 09:50 PM) Fangraphs has Latos and Danks pretty close to balanced over the last 2 years, all things considered. Latos had an ERA in the 3's, in the NL, and pitching in Petco. Danks had an ERA in the high 3's/low to mid 4's, pitching in the big boy league, pitching in the Cell. QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 17, 2011 -> 09:54 PM) Danks would be an All Star pitching in the NL and at Petco. Using B-R's or Fangraph's adjusted ERAs, which account for both league and ballpark effect, Latos has been better each of the past two seasons.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2011 -> 05:58 PM) Holy Hell, we'd have taken 1 of those 3 guys for Danks. Again, Danks' value is only a small fraction of Latos'. Whatever you think the fair return for Danks would be (the consensus here seems to be top-50 prospect), multiply that return by about four to get a package good enough for Latos. QUOTE (knightni @ Dec 17, 2011 -> 06:06 PM) Latos is very good, but he's no better than Danks. Just a better contract situation. Over the past two seasons, Latos has struck out 2 more per 9 than Danks, given up 1 less hit per 9 than Danks, and has a marginally lower BB rate. I know he's pitching in a pitcher's park in the NL, but he is three years younger than Danks. So he's even that much further from his prime. He's better than Danks. John does have the established record of being durable, though.