I was catching up on my post-holidays Chicago newspaper reading and spotted a Phil Rogers column on Dayan Viciedo.

 

Rogers wrote ...

 

"A National League scout called him 'a poor man's Pablo Sandoval,' and he didn't mean that as a compliment.

"Not big on him,'' he said. "He's no outfielder, that's for sure. Has arm strength. Poor at judging fly balls. … Could start for a second-division team.''

That's exactly what he's likely to do."

 

 

Now earlier in the Rogers column, it was written

 

"One International League manager compared him to Vladimir Guerrero, saying he's a proven 'bad-ball hitter.'

Another said 'the ball just jumps off his bat,' which was what seemed to be the case in 2010 when Ozzie Guillen nicknamed him "The Tank.'' And yet another called him the best pure hitter in the International League.

'Hits for power, hits for average,' he said, citing his aggressiveness as a double-edged sword. 'You have to make sure he gets himself out, set him up. He's a bad-pitch hitter.'

 

So do you guys think Tank is a star in making, or a stiff in making?

I always liked the guy during his limited at bats.

I hope he's a hard worker. Some of these guys I would hope are starting to pick up a bat and do some running leading up to spring training.

Closer to a star than a stiff....we'll find out this season what we really have with Viciedo.

 

He should easily beat Quentin's RBI numbers and equal his doubles total (from 2011)...not sure if he can best the homer totals.

 

He also should hit for a higher average. And hopefully stay healthy for a full season.

My expectations for Viciedo have changed quite a bit over the past three years. I was too harsh on him in the past, and should've accounted for how aggressive the Sox were with Dayan considering his age. He's improved every season. Of over 100 batters in the International League last year who got at least 300 PAs, Viciedo was third-youngest. Yet he created runs 32% better than league average (per fangraphs' wRC+). That's impressive. Unfortunately, he's likely to give back runs while playing the outfield.

I was catching up on my post-holidays Chicago newspaper reading and spotted a Phil Rogers column on Dayan Viciedo.

 

Rogers wrote ...

 

"A National League scout called him 'a poor man's Pablo Sandoval,' and he didn't mean that as a compliment.

"Not big on him,'' he said. "He's no outfielder, that's for sure. Has arm strength. Poor at judging fly balls. … Could start for a second-division team.''

That's exactly what he's likely to do."

 

 

Now earlier in the Rogers column, it was written

 

"One International League manager compared him to Vladimir Guerrero, saying he's a proven 'bad-ball hitter.'

Another said 'the ball just jumps off his bat,' which was what seemed to be the case in 2010 when Ozzie Guillen nicknamed him "The Tank.'' And yet another called him the best pure hitter in the International League.

'Hits for power, hits for average,' he said, citing his aggressiveness as a double-edged sword. 'You have to make sure he gets himself out, set him up. He's a bad-pitch hitter.'

 

So do you guys think Tank is a star in making, or a stiff in making?

I always liked the guy during his limited at bats.

I hope he's a hard worker. Some of these guys I would hope are starting to pick up a bat and do some running leading up to spring training.

 

So one scout doesn't like him?

Personally, I think he can be a Luis Gonzalez-type player. Luis's career averages were a .283/.367.479/.845 slashline with 22 HR, 90 RBI, and 37 2B with below average defense.

 

That's the comp I would pick.

Edited January 3, 201214 yr by JoeCoolMan24

So one scout doesn't like him?

 

One liked him; one didn't. Writer only talked to 2.

well...he's proven he can rake at various levels. I'm just glad he's finally going to get the chance to do it on a daily basis. I can live with some growing pains...but I'd definitely say more star than stiff.

Somewhere in between. A solid regular who might make an all-star game or two during his career.

Personally, I think he can be a Luis Gonzalez-type player. Luis's career averages were a .283/.367.479/.845 slashline with 22 HR, 90 RBI, and 37 2B with below average defense.

 

That's the comp I would pick.

 

I could see something similar statistically, but I don't think you could have picked a more different looking ballplayer.

Eddie Williams, old Sox 3B....mixed in with Sandoval, Bobby Bonilla and Prince Fielder, lol.

 

 

Phil Rogers contradicting his own column? No way!

One liked him; one didn't. Writer only talked to 2.

 

You really need to stop reading columns written by Phil Rogers

http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/whitesox-ta...tm_medium=email

 

Projecting Dayan Viciedo

January 2, 2012, 11:52 am

 

CSN White Sox analyst Bill Melton discusses Dayan Viciedo's new role with Carlos Quentin heading to San Diego - 12/31

 

JJ STANKEVITZ

csnchicago.png

 

Dayan Viciedo will take over right field with a ton of hype -- hype that he's earned with back-to-back solid seasons between Triple-A and the majors. But the 23-year-old probably won't be a savior of the White Sox offense. Or, at least, he shouldn't be expected to be that savior.

 

Viciedo showed improved plate discipline last season in Charlotte, raising his walk rate from 3 percent to nearly 9 percent while lowing his strikeout rate by 5 percent. In 113 MLB plate appearances, his walk rate fell a bit while his strikeout rate jumped back into the 20 percent range -- which is pretty normal. That his walk rate remained fairly steady (right around the MLB average of 8.1 percent), though, is an encouraging sign, even in a small sample size.

 

There are two projections out there for Viciedo right now, with those being from Bill James and Dan Szymborski (ZiPS). Here's how they project Viciedo:

 

Projection BA OBP SLG wOBA/OPS+ HR RBI

Bill James

.275 .324 .455 .340 (wOBA)

21 67

ZiPS .274 .328 .431 100 (OPS+)

21 75

 

A few things of note:

 

*ZiPS projects Viciedo's offense to be wholly average (a 100 OPS+ is average).

 

*James is a little more optimistic, as Viciedo's .340 wOBA would sit above 2011's average of .316.

 

*The plate discipline projections -- James has Viciedo with a 96/34 K/BB, while ZiPS sees Viciedo with a 114/40 K/BB.

 

*21 home runs is a fair baseline. That was the exact number Viciedo hit between Charlotte (20) and the majors (1) last season, so even with some improvement, that he'll be facing major league pitching every day means he probably shouldn't be expected to hit more than that.

 

*These projections should be viewed as baselines, not "this will definitely happen next season." Players deviate from these projections all the time, but they're useful for determining a rough idea at what level a player should be expected to perform.

 

*Defense. Neither James nor ZiPS takes into account defense -- but that's worth its own separate post regarding Viciedo, because his defense will make or break his value in 2012.

759-790 OPS would seem to be pretty realistic...although I'm sure most would prefer to project 800-850.

 

To have real value, he has to be well over the 800 mark, to offset his defensive liabilities. But he's still very very young, we keep forgetting that.

 

We'll have him for years 23, 24, 25 and 26, correct?

759-790 OPS would seem to be pretty realistic...although I'm sure most would prefer to project 800-850.

 

To have real value, he has to be well over the 800 mark, to offset his defensive liabilities. But he's still very very young, we keep forgetting that.

 

We'll have him for years 23, 24, 25 and 26, correct?

Dayan Viciedo is under White Sox team control for the next 6 seasons, assuming he isn't cut/released.

Dayan Viciedo is under White Sox team control for the next 6 seasons, assuming he isn't cut/released.

 

Did Kenny Williams get fired?

Did Kenny Williams get fired?

No, but he did offer to step down as GM. Afraid you lost me with the connection there though?

No, but he did offer to step down as GM. Afraid you lost me with the connection there though?

 

the only way Viciedo leaves Chicago is if Kenny trades him.

the only way Viciedo leaves Chicago is if Kenny trades him.

Figured it was useful to stick the clause "unless he's released" in there just in case. I mean, after the 2009 season, it'd be hard to figure that 2 years later Beckham would be 1-2 seasons away from being a possible non-tender candidate, but here we are.

Dayan Viciedo is under White Sox team control for the next 6 seasons, assuming he isn't cut/released.

 

So the total is ten years, essentially, with the initial four year deal and 6 additional "possible" years...

 

Similar to the situation with Humber.

So the total is ten years, essentially, with the initial four year deal and 6 additional "possible" years...

 

Similar to the situation with Humber.

Not quite. The six cost-controlled years don't start once Viciedo's initial four-year deal ends. He has already earned 123 days of service. So, if he were to stay in our organization until free agency, the total would be nine years.

Is it me, or does Viciedo seem exactly like Yonder Alonso?

Is it me, or does Viciedo seem exactly like Yonder Alonso?

Might be just you. Viciedo has more power and less plate discipline. I still think the best comp is Carlos Lee.

We'll see this year, but I know he is overvalued by SoxTalk (in general).

 

He was actually slumpin in September last season when 'the book was out on him'.

We'll see this year, but I know he is overvalued by SoxTalk (in general).

 

He was actually slumpin in September last season when 'the book was out on him'.

 

 

Give him 500+ at-bats and the chance to play everyday, then we can say if anyone's figured him out.

 

The league figured out Beckham, Dunn, Rios and Morel...might as well not even play or try to make adjustments.

 

Well, Morel adjusted in the end...it's up to the hitters and hitting coach/staff to help our hitters.

 

 

Just like when Phil Humber was an All-Star the first half of 2011, we weren't saying it would continue...just like Viciedo won't put a mid 600's OPS, which would still be much better than Rios and Dunn, ironically...or Beckham last year.

 

Viciedo shouldn't be in the top five list of concerns going into next year...

 

That would be

 

Reed/bullpen

Dunn

Rios

Beckham

Peavy/Humber/Sale