CaliSoxFanViaSWside

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 05:39 AM) First, let me give you credit about Avi. He actually got better last year and became a better player. You believed in him and deserve credit for that. Having said that, no one can sustain a .392 BABIP. It’s not about an over reliance on advanced metrics, it’s based on actual historical evidence. The highest career BABIPs (by some truly amazing players no less) come in around .350. Do you actually believe Avi is going to continue to be better than the best ever by a good 40 points? It’s not going to happen. His batting average is most definitely going to regress some. Having said that, I think he can still maintain an incredibly high BABIP and remain a .290ish hitter. And that’s fantastic IMO. The real question is can he add power or improve his plate discipline. That’s what will truly define a breakout. I honestly don’t see any reason to believe his plate discipline will improve by any significant margin at this point, but the power theoretically could. If it does he could be a damn good RF like he was in 2017, otherwise he’s probably league average at best. I personally don’t think adding loft is a simple task, but I’m more than willing to give him a shot this coming year because his fielding & base-running are no longer huge value drains and he’s got a non-zero chance of being a star. You spend your whole 1st paragraph explaining to me how his BABIP will regress when I already clearly stated I think it will too. While his walk rate was rather static his K rate was the best of his career. I believe it was 17.9 %. The one area he improved dramatically on was contact within the strike zone. . Now I am not using some O zone stat for that . I basically just used the hot zone graphics that indicate how well he hit in the strike zone and Avi basically hit well in the whole strike zone when in the past there were areas of the plate usually 4 out of the 9 divisions the plate is divided into that Avi didn't hit well. In 2017 it was basically only one part of the plate that he didn't hit well. He was making more and better contact within the strike zone. Maybe because he was in better shape his swing loosened up , maybe it got a touch quicker. Maybe his knowledge of how pitchers were approaching him got better . Maybe it was all of the above. These are things you cannot measure . If you have good eyesight and are physically gifted with good reflexes and hand eye coordination the one thing that prevents many players from developing is the ability to think along with the pitcher. In what counts should you expect a fastball, a slider a curve a change etc depending on the pitchers repertoire? What can you learn by looking at the fielders ? Has the 3rd baseman crept closer to 3rd when its not the late innings thus indicating a pitch you might be able to pull ( for a RH hitter). It's a game of nuances and subtleties. The best hitters are smart hitters to go along with their physical gifts.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 07:55 PM) Explain how the advanced stats scream regression without using the acronym "BABIP". That's the only one that is strongly favoring negative regression, and other advanced metrics point to the possibility of positive regression in both power and plate discipline. If he puts up a .290/.360/.540 line, is he any less valuable? Because I could see that based on his 2017 numbers factoring negative BABIP regression with positive regression in the power and plate discipline categories. Personally while I believe in advanced stats to a degree there is an over reliance on them.Baseball Common Sense 101 tells me when you hit .330 you did a lot right and just didn't get lucky. While I will have to agree that his batting average is likely to regress because of a large number of infield hits it wasn't just luck . I think we forget baseball takes a large amount of skill to get hits and all this talk about his numbers declining to pre 2017 is just people hedging their bets playing the odds that previous bad seasons still outweigh the 1 good one. Why can't the Sox have a player who breaks out in a big way ? Happens all the time. The only way to get a feel for a player is to watch a lot of games. I don't mean 1/2 the games I mean at least 75% and watch what the player is doing up there in the batters box. There's a lot to be said for actually watching/studying baseball.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 06:01 AM) I second that^ If Avi puts up a crazy season like that he will certainly look to get paid huge money in free agency, and likely not from us. I know great seasons and the lure of big money makes players forget earlier statements about staying with their current team but Avi has said he'd like to stay with the Sox "forever". ( Abreu has made similar statements). If Avi continues on an upward path like still hitting .300 but increasing HR to the 25-35 range and is somehow not traded he will be come the face of the franchise and a beloved player. I know many still think his production last year was a mirage and have a really difficult time wrapping their head around Avi becoming an actual superstar but it could happen. Avi and Eloy manning the corners as the cornerstones of the Sox . Avi the savvy veteran and the Kid. Dream big or don't dream at all .

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jan 29, 2018 -> 12:16 PM) I see basically no scenario that Avi is here for the "long haul". No scenario ? What if he hits 40HR's, OBP is .400, OPS 1.000, SLG .600 while playing decent D and throwing out 20 base runners ? That a scenario.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 29, 2018 -> 07:05 AM) Throughout this offseason we have had numerous freakouts that the sox were going to take a hit from their rebuild coffers for short-term gains. Yet none of those moves happened, and all we've done is sign miguel gonzalez and wellington castillo. The best prospect we traded was Jake Peter. I think at this point I feel safe in saying they are going through with the rebuild. They I'm sure are calling people but at this point, you have to believe more than anything the white sox are a team others are using as leverage in the trade process. I agree. Rick is doing his due diligence , making calls etc maybe hoping to fall into a good deal . You never know maybe some team would be interested in pieces the Sox would be willing to move like Yolmer, Leury Davidson, Willy Garcia, Delmonico or others on the fringe , of which we have plenty.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 28, 2018 -> 12:33 PM) Thanks guys but probably not going to be putting much time into it unfortunately. Well you probably have schoolwork or something and it might not be your 1st priority but it should be near the top. You have a good camera presence , good knowledge and best of all can express that knowledge in a clear precise and unhesitating manner. I could easily see you doing this on the MLB network as the Sox rep just like Dan Hayes did and unfortunatly Phil Rogers still does. You should get an agent if you don't have one. You already have a decent resume with written, in the field work and in front of the camera. If you would like to continue in the sports field and wish to hear more you can message me. I don't have any "ins" in the field or anything but I have a few more suggestions for in front of the camera work that I wouldn't want to put here.

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Jan 27, 2018 -> 08:50 AM) Is the banner seen as bad luck? Sorry I'm new-ish here No . not at all,as far as I know and I've been around here a long time.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Feb 25, 2017 -> 06:06 PM) If Rodon gets a shoulder injury I am blaming you ! On a serious note , great job, Q and Kalapse FTW . Well guess I have to blame Kalapse for this. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0928-story.html

Anyone with knowledge of the system can answer this. Would you say that the current group of position player prospects and their success or lack thereof would be an indicator to evaluate those who develop that talent ? I'm just curious with our lack of success in recent years with position player prospects and with changes made to the system if any one truly thinks the Sox have what it takes to develop these players or even draft well enough and recognize talent that basically just develops on its own.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 06:59 PM) Yea Brady is in the Super Bowl again. Way. To. Go. Do their fans even care about regular season games anymore? I love watching the White Sox so much on a summer night that I don’t think I’ll get spoiled. I may desire to see them get a bigger challenge though after 4-5 straight championships. Maybe MLB will consolidate the NL into one super team to try to beat the Sox...which will still not be enough, but at least competitive. Vivid imagination you got there.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 05:08 PM) Yeah, that’s fair, but if anything, at the very least, JD offsets that increase in wins by not costing a pick. It’s another thing in favor of signing him even though he doesn’t necessarily align perfectly with the timeline. Good discussion. I think it's fairly obvious by the recent signings and trades for guys like Gillaspie and other 1B/power types is that the Sox want to find some guy who develops late with a boatload of power. I have to assume JD Martinez is on the Sox radar but only at a certain cost that Boras or JD would not be very happy accepting. We'll see how it plays out but if I had to guess he's going to get in the $150M range unless the team(s) that have supposedly already offered that much back down because he initially refused it. The power struggle between the GM's and Boras for Martinez services shall be extremely interesting and Boras usually wins.

QUOTE (credezcrew24 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 11:04 AM) Engel has elite speed. Leury does not. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard Engel plays elite defense. Leury does not. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard We can twist the stats anyway we want to suit our needs. DRS says Engel was a -1 in CF in in 799 innings while Leury was a +3 in 406 inninngs. Leury had a UZR of 3.4 while in CF Engel 1.5 . I know Leury's sample size is much smaller in the stats you used and the ones I used.However I don't think, nor do the limited numbers suggest, that Engel is any better than Leury out there. Engel probably is better on fundamentals given he has played CF very often while Leury is fairly new to the position. But since Leury is a better hitter and the defense is not a significant factor it's still Luery's job to lose and it isn't close.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 09:56 AM) His defense is going to hold a ton of value to a young pitching staff that has a ton of other questions marks on defense. Leury has outstanding speed. played as well, if not better, than Engel defensively, hits from both sides of the plate and showed some pop. Everyone else is in line behind him and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Engel is eventually released.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 12, 2018 -> 06:58 PM) I agree. Could you imagine a 3-4-5 of Abreu-Martinez-Jimenez? That’s 100+ HRs easy at the Cell. Not only that but JD Martinez hits a lot like Avi in that he hits a lot to the opposite field. If there was one guy I think could teach/influence Avi to hit for more power it's JD Martinez. ' ' ;

Mark Buehrle was the Opening Day starter from 2002-2011 with the lone exception of 2006 when Jose Contreras started. That's 9 OD starts which is the Sox record. So I vote MB.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 12, 2018 -> 03:59 PM) 100% depends on the price/years. Martinez has pretty much been David Ortiz lite the last few years. If I can get him at a huge discount (which still seems unlikely IMO), I’m not against signing a guy like him a year early. The DH factor doesn’t really matter to me honestly. He was a top three hitter in baseball last year, don’t really care if he plays the field or not, he’d be an absolute weapon in the middle of our lineup. He supposedly has 5/150 waiting for him but doesn't want it. The guy hit 45 HR's in just 119 games. That's a ton of HR's. Him at the GRate would be perfect. Too bad it's doubtful the Sox would really be interested unless that 5/150 is BS . For that kind of power the "where would he play" question shouldn't matter even with Eloy on the horizon.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 11, 2018 -> 11:00 AM) The MLB Network series, Top 10 Right Now, starts Saturday night with SS and 3B. They’ll do RF and 2B on the 20th. That will be interesting to see if Avi ends up in the top 10. Of course the tittle say Top10 RIGHT NOW so he should be but they never stick to that always sighting past performance. My guess if Avi is on it he gets 10th or not at all.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 6, 2018 -> 03:46 PM) My rule of thumb from 2015 and 2016 and well, every white sox season - when you make the list of "everything that could go right!!!", you have to stop and say "Some of these things will go wrong". Maybe a bad year for Moncada, someone in that list will get hurt, maybe a couple of the starters struggle and you have to tolerate a few 1 inning 8 run games, maybe Delmonico was a mirage, maybe Leury was a mirage, maybe Anderson really wasn't that good. Most likely, it will be a mix of the 2. I don't need a dose of realism . Baseball is all about optimism. as the season unfolds it becomes what it becomes. I will watch and be hopeful every year until my dying day.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 11:08 AM) I absolutely expect the White Sox do some dumpster diving over the next couple of months. Prices are going to start dropping with the glut of guys on the free agent market, especially in the middle and lower ends of the spectrum where the Sox are going to be shopping. I think starting pitcher would be my top expectation, but bringing in bargains is never a bad thing either, as it adds to our flexibility and to our assets. This. Hahn isn't done. He's collected quite a few AAAA power position players ( Gillaspe etc) Expect some and excess OF's to be moved for more pitching .

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 08:32 AM) I'm in a rare optimism mode. I don't think Melky & Frazier (Yolmer had a better year) were world beaters last year so the only major loss is Q (who was not his usual self with the 2017 Sox) & the bullpen (who can have a random guy catch fire) Gio and Lopez continue to improve Rodon exists still hopefully Optimistically believe Sheilds magically found a new arm slot and isn't a BP pitcher any more Yoan & Tim continue how they ended 2017 Abreu does Abreu Avi hopefully does new Avi Yolmer & Leury wild cards In June they're infused with Kopech and Eloy To me that doesn't seem like a worse team but who knows. 3/4 of the above will be the opposite If I had to agree with any post in the thread this is the one. What players we open the season with still has a way to go though so I'll reserve judgement until I see opening day 25 man roster. Making any prediction now just because we got 2 new bullpen arms means nothing. I still expect the Sox to acquire this years version of Pelfry/Holland only a better version. Yolmer should be the starting 3rd baseman, Moncada improves drastically. Maybe the Fulmer of September wasn't a mirage. Delmonico provides LH pop. Leury every day CF . Anderson bounce back. Kopech and Eloy scream "put me in coach I'm ready to play TODAY ! " Gio and Rey are here to stay.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 07:19 AM) Joakim Soria's 2017 #'s: 3.70 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 3.08 xFIP, 10.29 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 0.16 HR/9, 54.8 GB%, 1.7 fWAR Please for the love of god tell me how he had a bad season last year? 10th overall RP in FIP, 15th in xFIP, 1st in HR/9, 23rd in WAR. They got him for NOTHING. Arguing over if he had a good or bad season is pretty irrelevant . Sox got 2 RP's they either flip (both of them) or keep (Avilan) for a song and got cash. There's nothing to dislike about this deal. 2 major league bullpen arms who not only solidify our bullpen needs and since relievers are a hot commodity at the deadline Sox put themselves in a position to add more prospects. And what did they give up ? A guy who was just exposed to the Rule 5 draft and didn't get picked by any team. 2 major leaguers who could be on the hot list at the deadline and replace parts traded at the deadline last year for a guy the Sox basically had no use for. This might be the best trade Hahn ever made that on the surface appears to be a nothing trade.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 07:10 AM) Greg, stop. I don't need to ask Caulfield or any dumbass Kansas City goobers s***. You are acting like a clown. I know, I should be used to it by now but I'm trying to catch up on an informative thread and you've hijacked it with nonsense. Actually Greg didn't hijack the thread. If you don't like his posts then don't read respond to them. People can't help responding to Greg. They think they can educate him or somehow make him see the light. Greg is a response magnet and you always take the bait as do the others who keep trying to reason with him or insult him.

Just a week or so ago I was questioning what Hahn had in mind for the bullpen because free agent RP's were going like hotcakes and nothing would be left if he waited too long and damned if he didn't answer my concerns by making a pretty decent trade for relief help.Thanks for listening Rick.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 3, 2018 -> 06:22 AM) Second and final chapter, following up on the Danny Mendick post. This one covers catcher Seby Zavala, another under-the-radar (though becoming less so now) prospect. More quotes, video, etc. in here from various coaches, scouts, etc. Good stuff. Very comprehensive piece. He may not have the pedigree of Collins but I believe he as an equal chance to become a productive ML catcher.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 03:08 PM) These projections aren’t great but they’re still better than the Steamer projections, who currently have us as the worst team in baseball by 8 games. Currently the bullpen is a disaster so that's understandable and bullpen pieces are going like hotcakes. If Hahn is planning on playing the waiting game and picking up BP pieces later won't be much left.