Everything posted by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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Rick Hahn discusses rebuild
QUOTE (pablo @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 06:16 PM) This is a complete side note but have found it funny ever since the winter meetings. What is up with RH always saying "if we had our druthers..."? It's got to be the fourth or fifth time I have heard him use it since the Eaton deal. Can he come up with something new? It's getting to the point where it's a tad bit annoying for me. Perhaps he liked the comic strip Lil' Abner as a kid.
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Baseball Prospectus ranks
QUOTE (SCCWS @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 07:31 PM) In fairness to Moncada, Benintendi moved up more than he moved down. I understand that. I said myself if I had to choose it would 've been Benintendi over Moncada but since the thread is about the Baseball prospectus list which ranks Moncada at 5 it's not just Benintendi. I don't think Moncada has been a universal #2 pick on the other lists either though I am not 100 % sure of that.
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Baseball Prospectus ranks
QUOTE (steveno89 @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 11:05 AM) Zero That is the first list that I have seen placing Crawford above Moncada Seems very odd that the players we think the Sox have targeted have moved up on a lot of these lists ( Meadows, Tucker, Marte, Keller )while the guys they acquired are moving down (Moncada, Giolito).
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Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week
QUOTE (HeGone7 @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 04:40 PM) That's another one of those glass half-full vs half-empty type stats. Q has that reputation to an extent, but I think that is mainly just Sox fans who have watched him w/frustration over the years. He has 1 complete game I think for his career, which is what I think people mean. It's a very "Q" type statistic because it just reinforces that he isn't great, but he is consistently good. His extreme's, in this case, like a pitcher who throws a CG or gets bombed before the 4th inning don't exist and he settles in the middle with several "20 out" outings. Similar to the rebuttles to his WAR argument. Which is that, sure "over the last three years he is a top 10 WAR pitcher" but he has never finished top 10 in a season (at least per BR). Once again, it demonstrates that he is very good and consistent but he lacks the upside to be "elite" in the eyes of other organizations. Or it at least gives them ammunition/leverage for negotiating his trade. Someone recently posted that they had potentially 20 guys they'd be willing to take ahead of him and that person was likely correct. Whether we want to ACCEPT it or not is entirely up to you, but there are 20 guys out there that are either already better or have more upside than Q. Most teams, right or wrong, will lean towards the upside at the level where Q is. They can "fix" the flaws for that guy to reach his potential being the logic. So while that is a nice stat, and I, personally, think in today's day-in-age with bullpens this should increase his value to teams. You also mentioned it was Sale + a bunch of guys at 20 in the AL. Depending on what "a bunch" means and how many guys we add from the NL, it may be less important than we think. I'd imagine there is a lot with 19 as well. Which circles us back to the "upside" debate that teams will make there. 1 more out everytime, or the potential to go 9 good ones when it counts. I wish I could respond in a more accurate way but I cannot find any stats on the outs per start thing. I saw it on MLBN and I cannot actually remember if the stat was for the AL or all MLB . I just saw Sale at the top with 21 and at least 5 guys tied for 2nd at 20 which included Q. Without belaboring the point it's just another stat to show that if you think Q is not an elite pitcher and we can argue that all day , one thing is clear . When you add up all the positives and there are many to be sure., he is an elite VALUE and that is the point of the matter. How valuable is a very good , never injured, youngish, inexpensive guy for another 4 years ? Whether or not he is elite on a year by year basis isn't really the point. When injuries can devastate teams, payroll cripple roster moves, inconsistencies from year to year baffle your team mates and front office Quintana is and most likely will continue to be that guy you can count on to give your team things that will put your team in the playoffs if surrounded by a near playoff caliber team. Quintana is without question an elite value and pitcher when you add up all the things that matter.
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Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week
QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 05:54 PM) The conspiracy does not exist. It is a figment of imagination. How many players did they acquire this offseason on major league contracts? If they weren't truly rebuilding something more significant than Geo Soto would have been acquired and even he isn't on the 40 man yet. You mean Derek Holland, Dylan Covey and Geo Soto aren't being paid to put the Sox over the hump and into the playoffs ? That's disappointing news.
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Herm Schneider and the Immense Value of Health
QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 07:30 AM) It will be interesting to see specifically what happens to Chris Sale over the next few years. Sale may believe 100% in Schneider's method and would be foolish to change it. On the other hand innings and wear and tear pile up so even if he has a major injury there wouldn't be a way to pinpoint why . Time has proven Herm's method as reliable but like everything else not foolproof .
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Baseball Prospectus ranks
QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 01:26 PM) As a fan it's kind of hard to know what to make of injury concerns like that anyway. If it means he can't stay past the 5th inning, then okay, move to pen. If they are like tim lincecum, I mean, ride it and hope they don't get injured. But what are you supposed to do with a probability like that? I think you just treat him like any other starting pitcher. You monitor innings increasing them incrementally each year and hope they build endurance. In Lopez' case he wasn't with the Sox last year so I am inclined to believe with the the big increase he had they will monitor him very closely. But with Herm Schneider and staff I like his chances at avoiding arm problems. That in itself might be the biggest reason why the Sox have traded for a lot of pitching. They know they are pretty good at developing and having less injuries with them.
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Baseball Prospectus ranks
QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 01:15 PM) Stroman? He's a few inches smaller even. But generally I agree with you, but Sox should give him every opportunity to start. The Sox will probably be extremely careful with Lopez this year. Whether or not you believe in the Verducci Effect , the fact remains Lopez surpassed his career high in innings pitched last year more than anyone. The lines of communication between Lopez and the Sox must be 100 % clear.
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Baseball Prospectus ranks
QUOTE (turnin' two @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 01:23 PM) Lopez is 6'0 -185 Pedro Martinez 5'11-170 There were a whole bunch of experts that thought Pedro was destined for the pen because of his size. That is why he was available in a trade, twice. In no way am I saying Lopez is the next Pedro. I am saying that pitchers can be great regardless of height and build. It'd be quite a bungle in the jungle to banish him to the pen too quickly. I see what you did there . Nice
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Baseball Prospectus ranks
QUOTE (steveno89 @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 12:36 PM) Lopez will more than likely end up as a reliever. Very few starting pitchers with his size and frame have held up as starters. I hope that I am wrong, but I still feel he could be a dynamic reliever for us Just remember back in the day people and baseball players were smaller and plenty held up as starters . I think it has more to do with 1. genetics and 2. mechanics. And 2 might be far behind 1.
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Baseball Prospectus ranks
QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 11:56 AM) Snot is running down his nose. ... while skating away on the thin ice of a new day.
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Matt Wieters
QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 12, 2017 -> 02:21 PM) I wonder what offers for Weiters look like right now? If we are talking the cheap end, he is absolutely a guy worth taking a shot on. I'm thinking he signs a 1 year below $10M maybe in the 7-8 range , even less if these execs. take pitch framing very seriously.
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Baseball Prospectus ranks
QUOTE (shipps @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 12:00 PM) Levine said that he is hearing from our scouts that Lopez is the best of the group. They think he is the closest. I heard him say that yesterday and at first was in shock but then I remember who was the person saying it. Could be valid though. It could be valid. He's a smallish guy for a pitcher so there are questions about his durability but his repertoire is pretty good as is his stuff. If you haven't seen it yet here's a little video and story on that 11 K game he had with the Nats. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/196369140/re...in-over-braves/
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Baseball Prospectus ranks
QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 12:02 PM) My irrational love of Hansen tells me he still has the highest ceiling of all our arms, even though I know it's really Rodon and Giolito. Throw Kopech into the discussion too. Just imagine 100MPH on the black on both sides of the plate up and down in the zone hitting all 4 corners. Now that's a ceiling.
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There's Much Hope for Todd Frazier
QUOTE (Jeff Liefer @ Feb 12, 2017 -> 04:15 PM) Hey guys, I lurk. Dan here. Reason I didn't have too much time. Played indy ball for the past few years. I run a blog now. Guess who out of the top 15 OBP (losers) would improve to an amazing level even with the K's... Caveat? He has to show boat his homers and lure the pitcher to get HBP... only twice. It's all on my blog. But I'm excited if it ends up working... https://shop.insurgentkinematics.com/blogs/...bout-regression OK color me confused .How does taking away 2 homers while adding 2 HBPs lead to an over .050 swing in OBP ? Aren't HR's counted as getting on base ? If Slugging percentage is the number of total bases divided by the number of at bats how does his slg% go up by taking away 8 total bases and adding 2 HBP which don't figure into slg right ? You're theoretically only reducing his number of at bats by 2 right ? I haven't done the math obviously but am I missing something or you are . I hope its me because I would sure check my math and formulas before I printed anything in a blog and plugged it to multiple baseball message boards ( which I'm sure you did ).
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Baseball Prospectus ranks
Jethro Tull on the list at #96.
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Baseball Prospectus ranks
QUOTE (steveno89 @ Feb 13, 2017 -> 11:19 AM) Nice getting Hansen some love, but I feel like he has to prove more to be considered a top 100 prospect He blew away rookie ball hitters, but still needs to show more control against better competition EhVlad Guerrero Jr. made some top 100's and he's only 17 and never been in full season ball yet. Just depends on your criteria .
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Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week
Just want to throw this out there in case this misconception about Q still exists that he doesn't go very far into games. Last year Chris Sale lead the AL in outs per start at 21. There were a bunch of guys tied for 2nd with 20 outs per start including Q.
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Matt Wieters
QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Feb 11, 2017 -> 10:08 AM) He's also a good framer, whereas Wieters is a horrible one. I'd be in favor of the move. That's good because I have some old rock n roll concert posters that need framing.
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Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week
QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Feb 11, 2017 -> 11:58 AM) Maybe he's saying the different types of players being offered of the course of various deals. Maybe one deal was 2 Top 50s and MLB player, the other was 3 Top 50s. Is twitter such a difficult medium to master that people cannot be more clear in the intended meaning or are tweeters just purposefully vague in order to disguise their ineptitude or ignorance of their native tongue ?
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Mike Ilitch dead at 87
QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 11, 2017 -> 07:51 AM) I think ownership did its job that year providing the means for a winning roster. Anytime a team wins a WS or gets to a WS, you need some luck, but to call aseason lucky when the team was in first place every single day is crazy. That was a great team that only trailed when it was down 1-0 in the ALCS. Luck goes both ways. 2003 and 2004, 2006, I don't think you could say it was an ownership failure the team didn't make the playoffs. I know you understand that no one is saying that particular team was anything but great from start to finish. So why you keep talking about it is just avoidance of the real issue. From time to time like the blind squirrel looking for the acorn, most of the time the search is fruitless. The same could be said of the Sox effort to build a winning franchise, one that can at least make 2 playoff appearances in a row. The piecemeal method of building a team worked once for which we are all eternally grateful. The Sox ownership and front office have been the blind squirrel and the Championship was the acorn but like that analogy points out, as most seasons have proven , the search usually ends in disappointment. Now, to be clear, I am not saying I have any idea into the amount of money the Sox have to spend or if the efforts are anything but 100% honorable, just that the results , outside of 2005, have fallen short and in that context , was a lucky year.
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Mike Ilitch dead at 87
QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 11, 2017 -> 05:24 AM) One lucky year of never not being in first place and going 11-1 in the postseason. Close to unprecedented. Could still be considered a lucky year if you see that the master plans of the front office didn't work particularly well for most of the years Reinsdorf owned the team. But for one brief shining year everything came together. Blind squirrel/acorn theory.
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Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week
QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 10, 2017 -> 06:35 AM) The number seems high to me but I started reading Passan's book, and he claims 52% of pitchers wind up on the DL every year. Speaking of the DL , when John Danks was placed on the DL in late May 2012 the White Sox recalled.... Jose Quintana.
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Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week
QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 10, 2017 -> 06:35 AM) The number seems high to me but I started reading Passan's book, and he claims 52% of pitchers wind up on the DL every year. Has Q been on the DL even once in the past 4 years ? I tend to think not.
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Predict Thy Numbers: 2017 Chicago White Sox
QUOTE (WBWSF @ Feb 9, 2017 -> 05:24 AM) 1) 60-102. This will be a train wreck of a season. It will be the start of one of the worse eras in team history. 2018 will be worse. I'm hoping JR sells the team after this season. After Frazier, Cabrera and Lawrie are gone after this season the 2018 team payroll will be the lowest in MLB. It will be the perfect scenario for JR to sell the team. The new owner will have the lowest payroll with no big long term contracts on the books. JR bought the team from Bill Veeck in 1981 under the same circumstances. 2) I try to listen to White Sox Weekly every Saturday on WLS-AM. I find it interesting that the host rarely takes calls from the fans. Last week he had some guest on and they both said they expect JR to spend some big money on some premier free agents in the future. (Harper + others) JR hasn't signed a top free agent since Albert Belle. They're dreaming if they think he's going to start doing it next season. I would think a new owner would sign some players before JR would. This is what Hahn recently said "When the time comes, we will be prepared to be aggressive, and free agency is used usually as a means to round out a championship-caliber roster. We know that's part of this. We are obviously not there at this time, but when the time comes, we are prepared to be aggressive. "Jerry has been on board in support of this from the start. He's as competitive as anybody. He's as impatient as anybody. He hopes ideally that we get this thing done as quickly as possible. " Taken from a whitesox.com article. So might not be 2018 but later.But like you I'll believe it when I see it. I'll go with 100 losses this year. Unfortunately I see some of the new pitchers up this year when Holland breaks down and others are ineffective and they will take their lumps, most likely Fulmer, Giolito and/or Lopez.