Jake

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 11:12 AM) Why would you bother keeping DeAza then? What makes you think Sierra's a better option than Viciedo? Why would you think Micah Johnson is ready for the majors, and that it should be in LF, where he's never played and probably not very comfortable...? Semien will be moved to the OF before Micah Johnson, in my opinion. Keep ADA because there's no reason not to - good depth. Sierra isn't a better option than Viciedo, I traded DV for Wilin Rosario. The org. seems to really like Micah Johnson so while I think he probably isn't quite ready, I think he could start the year in MLB. Semien is a better defensive player so it's my hope they keep Semien in the IF more often but I think they work them both out at multiple positions.

I'll break it down positionally. Catchers Tyler Flowers Wilin Rosario (traded for Dayan Viciedo) Infielders Jose Abreu Alexei Ramirez Marcus Semien Micah Johnson Andy Wilkins Conor Gillaspie Leury Garcia Outfielders Adam Eaton Avisail Garcia Alejandro De Aza Moises Sierra Marcus Semien Micah Johnson Leury Garcia Starting Pitchers Chris Sale Jose Quintana John Danks Hector Noesi winner of ST battle between Scott Carroll/Erik Surkamp/Erik Johnson Relief Pitchers Jake Petricka Ronald Belisario Zach Putnam Dan Webb Surkamp (if he loses 5th starter battle) Carroll (if he loses 5th starter battle) Tom Gorzelanny Jesse Crain (if Johnson is not winner of 5th starter battle) Not the most eventful offseason, culminating in us buying low on Wilin Rosario and selling low on Tank who might profile better for a COL team that plays in a hitter friendly park and is getting sick of Rosario. Sox treat catcher position as open position, but hope Rosario earns it with his bat and remains adequate defensively. Rather than target a full-time DH, that position will be used much like it is now in Charlotte to get extra at-bats for guys and partial rest days for guys. Same with LF - no obvious full-time player there, but instead a way to relieve the glut of infielders you have. And while Gillaspie is your starting 3B, but may lose most starts against LHP. I would say there's some chance Sanchez gets the nod over Micah to start the year. We don't target SPs in FA due to barely adequate depth and desire for continued payroll flexibility. By the time SP depth looks like significant concern, hopefully Rodon emerges from a MiLB stint as SP. Sample lineup against RHP Eaton CF Ramirez SS Abreu 1B Gillaspie 3B A. Garcia RF Wilkins DH Rosario C Johnson LF Semien 2B against LHP Eaton CF Ramirez SS Abreu 1B A. Garcia RF Rosario DH Gillaspie 3B Semien 2B Flowers C Sierra RF If everything goes right, it's a good team. If not, you're looking at a year like this one...except with this team, you'll know exactly what holes you need to fill to have a really good team the next season. This year we're in a bit of a holding pattern because there are several young players in the high minors and MLB that we aren't sure about just yet.

The problem is that many teams don't conduct themselves like tanking is a bad bet. Finally Charlotte decided it was far better to just get in the playoffs and be watchable than it is to perennially be among the worst 3-5 teams in the league. Not everyone can win the Finals.

It's not that Price isn't worth $20M. He's probably going to give some surplus value, even at that number. But...not much. If any. As we all went through in the Danks thread, we have to convince someone that not only is the player worth the contract, but also all of the value of the players they give you for the privilege of paying the guy. In the past three years, Smyly has earned less than $1.5M and has been worth $24.5M per FG. Big surplus value. So if he gets no better and is used no more frequently (both unlikely IMO) he's easily going to be surpass the surplus value of Price. Add in Franklin, who is extremely talented and played a season of big league ball last year at age 22 in which he was basically a league average bat, and you have the possibility of yet another highly valuable player making no money. While a good prospect, Adames is a longshot to pay off in MLB but you nonetheless are granted that chance with a big talent and zero risk. Meanwhile, if TB kept Price at $20M and didn't increase their overall payroll next year, he'd earn 29% of the team's payroll. The salary is more palatable for Detroit and a few other teams that can manage it (Boston in another year would be an obvious suitor), but you're faced with either losing him in 1.3 seasons or paying him even more annually on a free agent contract which has a 100% chance of being bad - the question is just how bad. They could potentially be without Scherzer, Price, or Smyly in 2016 and have to pick up the pieces with an overpaid and regressing Verlander and Anibal Sanchez, who will make $17M and who knows what he'll be like in two seasons. Porcello is a FA at that point, too. DET has $100M committed to the 2016 squad without Porcello, Price, Scherzer, VMart, a catcher, a single outfielder, or reliever of note signed to a contract. It's not always about surplus cost calculations and stuff and it clearly isn't here -- they want a World Series, which is worth whatever losses they incur along the way. The problem is that a World Series is impossible to guarantee and they further weakened an awful defense and awful baserunning team to make this improvement. Due to the loss of Smyly, they couldn't capitalize on the acquisition by strengthening their bullpen or hedging their bet in case of injury, either.

There just aren't a bunch of teams that can take on that salary, especially if they have to gut their system just for the right to pay it and then see the guy walk away a year and a half later

Tigers will need a lot of help to compete with us, from the looks of things

Nice prospect. JJ Cooper says their fourth, another reporter says many rival execs thought he was best remaining piece in their system.

I'm with Dave Cameron. You get a really good young starting pitcher as well as an undervalued middle infielder who has already been okay in the major leagues, and you get out from under ~$25M of salary commitments

Walker not involved. Nothing else involving SEA beyond Franklin and Jackson. There are surely MiLB guys involved, even if not of great consequence. David Cameron ‏@DCameronFG 5m David Price is very good. David Price, at $20 million next year? No one was giving up the farm for that. David Cameron ‏@DCameronFG 5m If your argument is that “David Price is awesome and Drew Smyly is not”, you need to factor in contracts. Price’s isn’t great.

There are surely minor league players involved in this. Murmurs that Taijuan Walker going to TB

You want every team trying to be good. It's no fun to watch a league where half the teams are disappointed when they win

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jul 31, 2014 -> 02:35 PM) However, Danks makes it for 2 1/2 more years, Rios makes it for the rest of this year and then a buyout. Oh yeah. So he's Adam Dunn.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jul 31, 2014 -> 02:31 PM) Leury hitting .186/.222/.246. Meanwhile Rios is wanted by 4 or 5 teams. Rios is the John Danks of batters. He makes $15 million to be average - and he's been worse than average this year, like Danks.

Trout has outhit Abreu and is a similar value defensively compared to average at their respective positions. The difference is that Trout plays center field, where the average offensive player is far worse. That's meaningful. Abreu would be a lower value if he played center field because he can't do it. That's why Trout is valuable. Because Trout is so good and doesn't play first base, the Angels can also have Albert Pujols on their team. Also, Trout is a positive value on the basepaths. Abreu is very good for his speed and position as a baserunner, but he's no Trout.

I'm happy with the lineup as constructed. I'd prefer Dunn behind Abreu and I don't like putting Gillaspie in a position (after Eaton) where he is bound to see more LHP. Where he is, his non-power hits can drive in the runners ahead of him.

Starting pitchers are inconsistent year over year. Danks has dealt with injuries. Sox have no payroll commitments. I'll roll with Danks to see if he can increase his value to us and on the trade market.

The franchise is not low on money. Danks is earning too much for now, but the money he would get from us wouldn't be allocated differently. What difference does it make if our payroll is $40M, $55M, or $70M next year?

We're not hurting for money. Might as well wait and see if he ever puts things back together

QUOTE (knightni @ Jul 31, 2014 -> 11:54 AM) Jeff Passan: Yankees looking for incremental upgrades, not big pieces. John Danks is the definition of an incremental upgrade, come on down New York!

I think both major trades today make sense for both sides and we'll need time to figure out who won. Buying low on Craig makes a lot of sense and I think Kelly could be a back-end starter for years to come.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 31, 2014 -> 11:34 AM) IMO, if there was anything really close, Danks would not start today. It wouldn't be worth it. Something has to change significantly or John Danks will be a White Sox at the deadline. I love it as a hardball tactic, honestly. Also, if you scratch him, you make a very loud statement to your team and fanbase about your intentions. If you don't ultimately trade him, everyone feels like that was the sole strategy anyway. If we don't manage any trades and Danks goes out and starts, Hahn can act like he was trying to add to the team or something.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jul 31, 2014 -> 11:27 AM) So leave and come back at 3. Well, I suppose I should say you can believe a report when it comes, but it's probably unwise to read too many tea leaves #hugwatch

Just let the deadline come and don't come to any conclusions until the deadline has passed.

Too bad about Fuentes. Seemed like he might have been on the fast track to Chicago

With the amount of starters they have, OAK didn't see any need for Millone this year. They may not think highly of him in general. Fuld, as we've heard Wimpy say a million times, can contribute meaningfully in the right role for a good team. Beane must have wanted him at that strong defense/fast runner/LH bat role.