Dam8610

That's value creation. That doesn't change the value of a 2nd round pick. The average 2nd rounder still never reaches MLB.

I disagree with this premise. So do a lot of others here. If you believe your stated premise and don't wish to discuss it further, take your own advice and move the fuck on.

That's more accurate, because Thompson is a lottery ticket who's way more likely than not at this point to flame out and never reach MLB, which is why the average WAR of a 2nd round pick is less than 5.

The average 2nd rounder is not even close to Jared Kelley and to pretend that's the case is incredibly disingenuous. Jared Kelley was a Top 15 talent who made it to the Sox 2nd round pick likely because they promised him Top 15 money and no one else would give it to him. The Sox aren't going to do that every draft and the opportunity doesn't exist in most drafts.

The give up is a 2nd round pick for the White Sox. I don't know or care what the Reds get.

That's fair, but there's no comparison between the value of an average 2nd round pick and current Dane Dunning.

+20 vs -10 seems like a no brainer.

It will be over 30 picks behind #29, and getting a Dane Dunning out of a pick at the end of Round 1 is incredibly rare. Yes, there's a draft pick that's lost. The average WAR of that draft pick is probably 2. Let's round up and call it 5, which is a huge roundup, by the way. Losing 5 WAR to get 20-25 makes a lot of sense. Losing 15 WAR to get 5 does not, and that's assuming Lynn gives you a 5 WAR season.

"If you take a whole bunch of relevant information out, you can easily argue Lance Lynn is better than Trevor Bauer." No kidding, I was pointing out that you were leaving out relevant information. Bauer is 5.3 WAR/162 over the last 3 years, entering his age 30 season, and only costs money. Lynn is 4.6 WAR/162 over the last 3 years, entering his age 34 season, and cost 6 years of Dunning, who reasonably could produce 15-25 WAR over that timeframe. It's Bauer in a no contest when discussing which pitcher would be better for the team both in 2021 and long term.

Keep the dream alive, as long as you realize it's only a dream.

Bieber has insane walk suppression, that's the biggest trait that makes him outstanding. Dunning, while close at times, was never quite that good at it. That said, 80% of Bieber on a league minimum contract for the next 3 years is more valuable than Lance Lynn. That's a high end outcome for Dunning, but the Sox are now betting on a high end outcome for a 34 year old.

Now do 2018.

Why would they need a bona fide ace and Cy Young winner entering his age 30 season for the next 5-6 seasons that they could have for just money? They just paid 6 years of a 2-4 starter for 1 year of an "ace" who really had 1 good season and is entering his age 34 season. Isn't that enough for you?

Lynn was the move to give them cover for not getting Bauer, but that's likely to blow up in their faces.

How the phrases "Top 100 Prospect" and "4/5 Starter Ceiling" get thrown around to describe the same player I'll never know or understand.

Classic White Sox. Laugh to prevent the anger/sadness moment.

So 1-4 with a HR and 3 Ks? Thought this board was tiring of TTO hitters.

Well the front office is certainly helping with that by giving up cost controlled assets for rentals. Whether we want to believe in that "fairy tale" or not, the front office is making the potential for it to be a reality into an impossibility. This alone won't do it, but more moves like it certainly would.

It's Bauer. Sign Bauer. Don't go cheap and give up valuable assets for rentals.

This really drives it home. If Lynn is worth 3.2 WAR next year, and Dunning is worth 2.4 WAR, the Sox got fleeced, but I've already said that several times.

The only place I disagree with you is the notion that Dunning is a finished product. He still has upside IMO. 2021 will be his age 26 season, not 27. Corey Kluber did not have a good season until his age 27 season. Everyone keeps saying these are outliers, and of course they are, any Cy Young winning pitcher is an outlier, but I can find examples littered throughout baseball of pitchers with mediocre stuff and great command who are solid mid rotation starters or better. The asset given up was a valuable asset, and very definitely could come back to bite the White Sox, even as early as 2021. Steiver should've been the top end of this deal, not Dunning.

Well unless you think a 4 starter solves the problem, be prepared for what you consider to be a big mistake.

?? Just sign Joc and get it over with. Sign some reclamation project to fill the "urgent" 4 starter need while only getting 0-1 impact pen arms and this will be a trademark disappointing White Sox offseason.

Sounds like the remaining $27 million could be used on Bauer, especially since $27 million AAV is what I've seen for his contract several places. Also, the White Sox could do this inconceivable thing called raise their payroll.

On the upside of outcomes, the answer is obviously no. There are way more than the upside of outcomes to consider, however. I will say I hope you're right and Kopech, Cease, and Crochet all establish themselves as at least mid rotation starters this year. That would also make this trade more favorable, even if Lynn ends up a rental.