Dam8610

That's a little steep for a rental, but at least it's not crazy shit like Vaughn, Kopech, or Madrigal and therefore doable.

Yeah, not a chance I'd move Kopech OR Madrigal for Gray, let alone both AND Heuer.

Not particularly interested in Garrett, but Steiver + a lotto ticket for Gray seems like a reasonable move if the Reds were interested in that.

Well whatever the White Sox do, I hope they don't cheat to win and make it all hollow and worthless. I'd rather be the Favre Packers because they didn't cheat.

That's one of the downsides of this strategy. Your big, important pieces have to hit. You can't miss on those guys, otherwise one rebuild could stretch over a decade.

If they can get him for what you're proposing, even better. Sometimes over analysis leads to paralysis. What is 5.3 WAR/162 over the last 3 seasons worth on the open market?

At 6/150 the White Sox should actively be sending the contract right now.

He'll get 6/$180. And the White Sox should be the ones to pay it. Throw in Joc Pederson and a couple of the top end relievers (Hand and Hendriks would be my choices) and go win some championships.

Wouldn't the price for him be astronomical? I would think that would require a piece the Sox shouldn't trade like Vaughn or Kopech.

Tadahito Iguchi

No, that's the guy standing next to him in the picture.

They can want Vaughn for Lynn all they want. They can also keep Lynn and let him walk after 2021. OR they can lower their expectations quite a bit and get more than a compensatory draft pick for him.

For me, the list looks like: Untouchables Luis Robert Yoan Moncada Eloy Jimenez Tim Anderson Lucas Giolito Andrew Vaughn Garrett Crochet Unmovables Jose Abreu Nick Madrigal Dylan Cease Dane Dunning Michael Kopech Dallas Keuchel Yasmani Grandal Here's the difference. For me an Untouchable is a player for whom another team could not provide adequate value to acquire while also improving their team. An Unmovable is a player for whom another team would be unlikely to provide the level of value to acquire that would make the White Sox willing to trade the player. I think Crochet is my most controversial pick, but the reason I place him in the first category is that he is a pitcher who made it to MLB in his draft year, has electric stuff, has starter potential, has six years of control minimum, and is left handed. I think these ideas that have Cease, Dunning, or Madrigal moving that I've seen are insane because of how low they have the White Sox selling on these guys. Dylan Cease still has ace potential, though that's certainly fading, but a 3 starter is also not an unimaginable outcome for him. Dane Dunning supposed ceiling is that of a 3 starter (so was Shane Bieber's three years ago), but he's already close to that and IMO you could squint and see a 2 starter there. Madrigal is going to provide a high on base, solid defense, 3-4 WAR profile over the next six years. These are not players you trade for other teams' rentals or albatross contracts, even if they have talent (read: Lance Lynn or Yu Darvish).

If you refuse to take risks in the future because of past mistakes, you're choosing a different way to lose. The free agents you referenced all had significant warts and were not considered top of the market. Bauer just won the Cy Young and has put up #1 or #2 starter numbers for at least the last 3 years, and IMO more like 5. He's going into his age 30 season, so a 6 year deal (which is more than I'd like to see but likely what he'll sign unless he actually does the 1 year deal thing) would give you his age 30-35 seasons, which should provide value given the caliber of pitcher being signed. This is the "one piece away from a championship" move, and IMO the Sox are.

Except you're ignoring the most important factor: MLB readiness. Eloy was at A+ and Cease was at A. Kopech has seen time in MLB, and Vaughn would probably be AA or higher in a normal year. The White Sox think he could be on the MLB roster in 2021. That's why the comparison is ridiculous.

I'd love Ozuna as a DH if Vaughn didn't exist. But putting two butchers in the corners around Robert is begging to get Robert injured, hurt the pitching staff, and cost the team games. Springer is a risk because he could be a 3-4 WAR player without the bangs (not to mention he had a down season or two with the Astros), for which a long term $25+ million AAV deal is an overpay.

Also, random and somewhat off topic, but every year someone does a spreadsheet as an offseason simulator type of thing. Where can I find that?

"Not a butcher defensively" eliminates Brantley and Ozuna. Springer is a huge risk IMO. You don't have to agree with me on that. This is about opinion. My opinion is that Pederson is the best fit for this team for the reasons I've stated. This is one of the reasons I want Pederson. Also gives the Sox flexibility at DH with the ability to rotate their OFs in and out of the spot.

If it's Springer, I'm not really keen on that idea. I may be in the minority, but the cheating and the other options available makes it a bad idea. Too much uncertainty for a $25+ million AAV long term deal IMO.

Name that RF, please.

I don't know about everyone, but depending on the closer and the payout for Musgrove, that would be fine by me.

How do you not factor MLB readiness into your evaluation? To me, a SP with a 3 starter ceiling performing well at AAA or MLB is WAY more valuable than a SP with an ace ceiling in A ball. The only exception would be if you're actively in a rebuild. As recently as 2.5 years ago, talent evaluators would've said Shane Bieber's ceiling was a 3 starter, despite him doing nothing but perform at every level. If in the beginning of 2018, someone had suggested Bieber for Kopech 1 for 1, most of this board would've lost their minds. In retrospect, however, it would've been one of the shrewdest moves the team could've made. The point being closeness to MLB ready must be and is a factor in any team's valuation of a player. It takes a lot less ceiling at AAA to get a MLB player than it does if the player is at A or A+.

A 3 WAR starter would be a good enough plug to allow the young guns to develop, especially if he's not too costly. It's not Bauer, which is the ideal solution, but it's at least plugging the hole.

That would be MUCH better than any of the insanity I've seen thrown around as potential Lynn trades.

No it wouldn't, especially not that last part. Trading that much young pitching for 34 year old Lance Lynn sounds terrible to me.