Dam8610

I don't understand the bolded, because they both came from college and Steiver is dominating a level that Walker is struggling with.

It's been explained to you. You're giving the closer credit for the whole win in the "saves above average" category, which is wrong for reasons that have already been pointed out. Firstly, closers will always be well above the league average save rate because blown saves are credited to middle relievers and setup relievers who give up a lead, despite the fact that they never would have gotten the save had they not given up the lead. Further, as has been stated several times, you're giving the closer credit for the whole win in those situations. Under your model, the closer's contributions to the win are the only ones that matter. Not the starting pitcher's quality start, not the offense's performance, not the defense's performance, but only the closer matters. In fact, going further, based on your "calculation" of 6.86 vs. the fWAR calculation of 1.7, Colome is actually getting about 25% of the credit for the "wins" he's "responsible for", which to me is actually dramatically skewed in his favor.

That's not how WAR is calculated. Further, taking the league average save percentage is stupid, because closers are expected to get saves, whereas middle relievers and setup men are not, but they get a good chunk of the blown saves when they give up a lead.

How do you reach this conclusion? He's a LHSP putting up a 100 ERA+ and a lower FIP than ERA, and looks to be on pace to pitch between 180-200 IP. That's a mid rotation starter and a fairly valuable asset.

You can't reasonably say that at all, unless you have statistical evidence of a strong correlation between low K rates and low pitch/AB numbers or something of the like. I'd be willing to bet the opposite is true.

Cool story. How does not striking out preclude walking?

What?! This is literally the opposite of true. A K has a .000 batting average. Even pop flies have higher batting average.

The best case I've seen for massive investment in player development and scouting. Getting 1-2 good players per year means never rebuilding. What would 2-3 do?

K rate does nothing to BABIP. A low K rate will correlate to a higher BA because BABIP x (1-K%) will approximate BA, especially for players with low HR totals. A player who hit 0 HR, 0 SF, 0 Sac Bunts, and struck out 0 times would have BABIP = BA. EDIT: Went back and read my post, I see why you asked. I was referring to not striking out as opposed to low K rate. A strikeout has a .000 BA. The BABIP of any contact is higher, as seen in the article shared by thxfrthmmrs.

Not necessarily, no. Why would quality of contact need to go down for K rate to go down? Yes, this is the outstanding question in Madrigal's development that will determine his career path. He needs to develop more of a line drive contact profile. If he does that, the sky is the limit.

Quality of contact and speed are the two factors that influence sustainable differences between league average BABIP and a given player's BABIP. The quality of contact is the question mark at the ML level as of now. He has the speed. My projection was based on a high end outcome for him, say 80th percentile or higher. Thus, the projection assumes that the quality of contact question resolves at least mostly favorably for him.

Is a high end outcome projection for one of his best seasons. With his contact and speed profile, I don't see how that's extreme. The most extreme thing about it is the nearly .160 ISO and that's basically a league average ISO. I don't see a .370ish BABIP as extreme for someone who Ks as little as he does and has speed as a big component of his game. The difference between your .330/.380/.480 and my slashline is roughly 7 singles and 5 doubles over the course of 650 PAs. I think to hit .300, he'd have to have a BABIP in league average range because of how rarely he strikes out, and that seems low to me. I thought and still think that Altuve is a 95th+ percentile outcome for Madrigal. Exactly. Hitting .290-.300 would require a BABIP in the .300-.320 range. It's possible he could end up in that range, but that to me is an extreme projection on the low end because of his speed and tendency to not strike out.

Exactly, he's the only guy I've ever seen have a higher grade placed on his game power than his raw power, and it's because of his style of play. He's going to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples if he develops the way we're all hoping he will. I also think he's capable of developing the power to hit 15-20 HR in a season, which could put him on another level.

In his best years? Yes, if he develops well.

I feel like the following line is not unreasonable to expect from Madrigal, provided he's healthy and becomes a capable ML hitter: 650 PA 210 H 50 2B 15 3B 5 HR 50 BB 35 K That produces a slashline of .350/.400/.508, which if combined with 50 SB and Gold Glove defense is easily an all-star and probably a 6 fWAR player.

I'll be happy to look past the trade if Moncada, Eloy, Robert, Madrigal, Vaughn, et al turn into murderer's row and Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Rodon, Lopez et al become the best pitching staff in baseball. Basically, if the Sox traded Mike Trout but then ended up with the LA Dodgers roster and farm, I don't think any of us would be upset. Same concept.

The specifics on loss aversion are that it takes a gain twice as large as a loss to experience the same level of feeling about the gain as the loss. We can see this by looking at Sox fans reactions to the Quintana or Eaton trade and the Tatis Jr. trade.

So this weekend?

Why not give Detwiler a shot? What do they have to lose at this point?

There are legitimate reasons that Giolito has improved. He changed his mechanics, his training regimen, his pitch usage, etc. The results have been a huge improvement. It's not just a mirage, he found a working formula.

These two posts in combination don't make much sense. In the first, you essentially say Strasburg and Keuchel are too expensive. In the second, you list five pitchers, two of which are Strasburg and Keuchel, and say that two of them are needed to "give us a true contending rotation". So which is it?

Seems like 2 SP are needed from outside the organization. I like the idea of Strasburg and Keuchel. 1) Giolito 2) Strasburg 3) Kopech 4) Keuchel 5) Cease

Aaron Rowand had 4 WAR CF defense and was immediately traded for a LH power DH.

Who is there to be excited about of today's draftees?

Was picked 26th overall.