Dam8610

2018 was his age 27 season. Seeing a young, talented pitcher who flashes potential finally put it all together at that age is not uncommon at all. Not every pitcher can be Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, or Chris Sale and just come up to MLB and immediately put all their tools together and become an elite pitcher. Sometimes it's a process that takes time. Even the super conservative Steamer has Bauer worth 11 WAR over the next 3 years (3.8 in 2021, 3.7 in 2022, 3.5 in 2023). Even if you then apply the standard Fangraphs aging curve to him (which is very much against his favor), that makes him 3 WAR in 2024 and 2.5 WAR in 2025, for a 5 year value of 16.5 WAR, which at $9 million/WAR (which I believe is the current going rate), would make Bauer worth a 5 year/$148.5 million contract. Bear in mind that all estimates used in the above analysis are extremely conservative, and I'd expect Bauer, barring injury, to be worth somewhere between 20-25 WAR on a 5 year contract. Rarely do you get an opportunity to get surplus value in a free agent contract. I wish the White Sox would take advantage of it.

So then please explain the 5.8 WAR full season 2018. I've noticed a lot of people on this board trying to discredit Bauer based on mostly a down 2019 where he only pitched like career average Lance Lynn, which for Bauer is a down year. But these people also seem to discredit his 2020 Cy Young winning performance because it was a short year and pretend like his near 6 WAR 2018 doesn't exist. It's not like Bauer pulled a Lance Lynn and suddenly became elite in one year, then started to show regression back to the mean in the following year. Quite the opposite, he showed dominance previously, had a "down year" where he was a borderline 2 starter, then won the Cy Young. The "it's not sustainable" argument doesn't hold up if he's kept a 5.3 WAR pace over nearly 500 innings. That's not a small sample size according to most here.

You have to multiply the 2.5 by 2.7 to reflect the 60 game 2020 season to get Bauer's 2020 WAR/162 of 6.8. 5.8 + 3.3 + 6.8 = 15.9/3 = 5.3. That said, even a 4 WAR starter is much better than an "overpaid #3 starter".

"Ace" is a very subjective term, but I think it would apply to the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. If not, then I guess you'd have to tell me what you call a pitcher averaging 5.3 WAR/162 over the last 3 seasons. Fangraphs calls it a "Superstar" (their term for a 5-6 WAR player), but what do you call it?

Why? They did it with Lynn. Cheap and stupid tends to be this club's MO when not trading off incredibly valuable MLB assets (then they're cheap and smart).

Them getting Trienen back and adding Hand on top of what they already had seems unfair.

That's very popular with me, fwiw.

What? Assumptions have to be made in any statistical analysis. To say otherwise represents a lack of understanding of how mathematical modeling works.

That's the description of it, not the calculation. FIP aims to strip the factor of fielding from the pitcher's performance, and the biggest reason it's a relevant measurement is that overall it correlates better to future pitching performance than ERA does. If it did nothing but measure ERA, it would be useless and not calculated. That's also why there can be gaps between ERA and FIP.

But Joe Musgrove is not Lance Lynn. As we all know, bad starts only don't count when they're made by Lance Lynn, and good starts only don't count when they're made by Joe Musgrove. I'd love to argue against it, but this is just scientifically proven fact.

Just Giolito then, I suppose. I could see Kopech, Cease, and/or Crochet next offseason depending on how 2021 goes.

Giolito and Robert are the two most pressing currently I believe.

Well, now we know why there's been no movement on Bauer. That's insane. He's not getting the 1 year AAV on a 6 year deal.

Over 4 years, sure, but at least 3 of them were with a bad bullpen and defense. That sure seems like a mitigating factor.

His FIP was much closer to his ERA in his time with the Astros. His ERA was never half a run higher than his FIP in his time in Houston.

Having the worst strand rate in baseball seems like a pretty logical reason for your ERA to be a full run higher than your FIP. Cherry picking is picking arbitrary measurements that make no sense traditionally to make the numbers fit your narrative. Taking 32 consecutive starts over 2 seasons is cherry picking, because why ignore the rest of those seasons? The only real reason to do it is to make the numbers fit your narrative. When using statistical analysis, the numbers should drive your narrative rather than being forced to fit it. If Musgrove only costs a Dalquist or Thompson as a headliner, that should get done ASAP. It's not just about filling the 4 spot of the rotation. This is a pitcher who could definitely be a 3, and might even be able to be a 2 on a team with solid defense and bullpen, and thereby not potentially leave the rotation completely screwed after 2021, plus position the 2021 team even better for contention. A Q or Richards on a 1 year deal leaves the Sox scrambling to fill 2 rotation spots next offseason, and I don't think it's reasonable for us to trust that this front office will ever spend in free agency to fill the holes on the roster.

Well if you take out all his good starts, his numbers are atrocious. How could anyone ever justify acquiring a pitcher who occasionally has a bad game and pitches for a team with atrocious defense so his ERA is usually a half run or higher more than his FIP? That's preposterous, he has to be awful.

Jeff Bezos? At least he couldn't cry poor.

That's not weird, they need to tear their roster down.

3.3 and 2.7 is not 2. It's 3. Musgrove is a 3 WAR pitcher on average over the last 2 years. Also, "my confidence" in Dunning is a conservative Steamer projection, and that he has had some success both in the high minors and MLB. Those last two factors reduce the low end range of his outcomes significantly.

Your post said "And Steiver is nothing..." presenting it as though that was my take. The statement was hyperbolic and an inaccurate characterization of my argument. Stiever has a larger range of outcomes than Dunning, including a larger negative range. That doesn't make him "nothing", it makes him less likely to succeed than Dunning. As far as your thoughts on Musgrove, I'm not arguing against your cherry picked stats. He's been a 3 WAR pitcher the last 2 years so it's reasonable to expect that going forward.

You can't remove bad starts just because you don't like them. Lynn's fWAR was 1.5 last year, which works out to 4 with a 2.7 multiplier. If his last start was worth -0.7 WAR, I find that to be a pretty significant data point to consider. Honestly, I hope Lynn defies both the aging curve and career norms and is as good as you think he will be, I just personally don't want the White Sox to bet their 2021 season on it. Musgrove was a 3.3 fWAR pitcher in 2019 and a 2.7 fWAR pitcher in 2020 using the multiplier. That's a 3 WAR pitcher to me. Sorry you don't see it that way. Steamer projects Dunning at 2.4 WAR next year based on 149 IP. If that performance level holds over more IP, he will be worth more than that. If there is a higher performance level over 149 IP, he will be worth more than that. Yes, there are a lot of variables, but there's a decent chance (I'd say ~30%) Dunning could be worth 3 WAR next year. You really need to stop with the hyperbole. Steiver's range of outcomes is more volatile based on his body of work than Dunning's. He could end up a 5 WAR/yr pitcher or never see MLB again. That volatility makes Steiver less valuable. Again with the hyperbole. The numbers point to what I'm saying, accept it or don't, but that won't change.

Your entire timeframe on Lynn is heavily influenced by a highly unlikely to be repeated 2019 where he put up 6.8 WAR at age 32. Aside from that clear outlier, Lynn has basically been a mid 3 WAR pitcher his entire career. Even the 2020 you tout as being so great would only project out to 4 WAR, and you can't cherry pick out his last two starts because you don't like them, they're also events that happened. It's not a "gut feeling" I have that Lynn isn't going to be the 2019 version, the phenomenon I believe will take place is called "reversion to the mean", and the predictive stats see it coming as well. There is no measure that does not heavily weight his outlier 2019 by which Lance Lynn is a top 10 pitcher in baseball. Regarding Musgrove, you seem to be confusing the terms "more attractive acquisition" and "better player". I like Musgrove as an acquisition option because he's likely to be a 3 WAR pitcher over the next 3 years, which is something that would slot in very nicely in the 4 spot of the rotation and very very nicely in the 5 spot if 1 (in 2021) or 2 (in 2022 and 2023) of Kopech, Cease, and Crochet work out, because 3 WAR is essentially what a playoff team wants out of its 3 starter. If you're getting that type of production from your 5 starter, you're through the moon happy. Again you cherry picked stats to try to make Musgrove look bad, but the overall trend arrow on him is up, he's 28, and the Pirates have a history, especially recently, of squandering talented arms only to have them go on to fantastic success elsewhere. Regarding Steiver vs. Dunning, there's a point where prospect grades stop mattering and MLB performance starts mattering, otherwise Mookie Betts would be a below average hitter struggling to keep his job rather than a perennial MVP candidate on the best team in baseball, and Shane Bieber would be struggling to hold on to his #5 rotation spot instead of being the reigning AL Cy Young award winner. I don't care about prospect grades, Dunning had success at MLB, and looks like he'll be a 2-3 WAR pitcher if he pitches a full season in 2020. That's a solid 3 or 4 starter with room for growth. That's also why comparing Steiver to him is a bit unfair to Steiver, who is 23 and hasn't had success above A ball. I know for some reason that isn't a big deal, but there are a lot of pitchers with Steiver's resume or similar that never make it to MLB. His outcome range is too volatile to know he'll even pitch in MLB at this point. Comparing that to a pitcher who has already developed himself into a ML 3-4 starter, there's no real comparison. I don't care what prospect grades or rankings say. You keep missing my point on the Dunning v. Lynn thing, so I'll just state it this way: if the Rangers get 3/4 of the WAR from Dunning in 2021 that the White Sox get from Lynn, which is not an incredibly unlikely outcome, then the Sox got fleeced by the Rangers in that deal.

This is close to the value of the Sale deal, and Snell is not worth that IMO. It's not as topheavy, but Patiño is a Top 10 prospect according to Fangraphs and got a taste of MLB at 21 last year, Mejia is the type of player the Rays always turn around in these types of deals (see: Austin Meadows), Cole Wilcox has a way to go, but definitely has TOR potential, and Blake Hunt could develop into a useful player. Like I said, not as topheavy, but has the potential for more impact, and IMO Snell isn't worth that much. The Rays will end up massively winning this deal like they always do, which is why you don't trade with the Rays.