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Dam8610

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Everything posted by Dam8610

  1. Dam8610
    White Sox gonna White Sox.
  2. Dam8610
    https://theathletic.com/2353214/2021/01/28/rosenthal-cardinals-rockies-in-discussions-on-nolan-arenado-trade?source=user-shared-article
  3. Dam8610
    I fucking hate the Padres. That is all.
  4. Dam8610
    1) You're making the argument for signing Bauer for me. Everything you mentioned in this point is a great reason to sign Bauer and bring more long term stability to the rotation. 2) That kind of thinking will lose you a World Series in today's game. Get 4 SP and have the depth to rest and replace as needed. Also getting Bauer makes the Top 3 better. 3) The character risk thing is overblown and at the very least far outweighed by his talent. It's not about "right away", it's about the cost of replacing all the talent that would be gone at the end of 2023. Or are we just tearing it all down at the end of 2023?
  5. Dam8610
    That's a great reason to not trade the farm for Castillo. The point I was making is that if the Sox have the money in the budget to trade the farm for Castillo and pay to replace that talent, then they have the money to sign Bauer and should just do that and keep their talent.
  6. Dam8610
    1) So? What hole would there be at that point? Also, minor acquisitions would still be possible. 2) So is not having enough starting pitching in the playoffs. A 5 year deal for Bauer gives the White Sox his age 30-34 seasons, which is a good chance of not experiencing any decline barring injury. 3) He's not getting that anywhere. He'll get over it.
  7. Dam8610
    That's disappointing, as the prices thrown out for him seemed a lot more reasonable than anything else discussed this offseason.
  8. Dam8610
    It's funny to me how all these anti-Bauer people who use his 2019 against him and don't want to count his 2020 also want to give up the farm for Luis Castillo, a pitcher for whom the best argument for giving up the farm is his 2020. So 2020 counts for Castillo, but not Bauer? Why not just give up money for Bauer and keep all the talent in house?
  9. Dam8610
    What happened to the Musgrove rumors? Musgrove for Steiver and Thompson sounds pretty good.
  10. Dam8610
    I don't care if he's the best pitcher in baseball, he only has 3 years of control. Giving up pieces that are supposed to be key pieces of your rebuild for pieces that will be in a different uniform in very short order is a great way to shorten your contention window. Huh? WAY too much for the Sox to give up. If that's the price, stay out. 3 years of control. He's gone in 2023, likely right when Andrew Vaughn would be winning MVP for the Reds.
  11. Dam8610
    That would be incomprehensibly stupid.
  12. Dam8610
    It seems like the Red Sox could use a high upside starter and the White Sox could use a high upside corner OF who has the ability to play RF, as well as an extra bat until Vaughn is ready. Both are former top prospects who had a promising 2018 and have declined ever since. Both are good change of scenery candidates. It seems like a good fit. It won't happen, but I think it would be a good move from which both teams would have a decent chance of benefitting.
  13. Dam8610
    I feel like Benintendi for Lopez makes too much sense.
  14. Dam8610
    Interestingly his xFIP was roughly the same for both seasons, and suggest that the 2020 results are the ones to be trusted.
  15. Dam8610
    4 WAR is worth $36 million per year and players are rarely paid at the market WAR rate because contracts are typically longer to spread out the payment. The Padres don't necessarily want Manny Machado's age 33-36 seasons, but they're willing to pay $30 million AAV for them to get his age 26-32 seasons. I don't see him getting that much, but that tells me that a 5/150 deal is right in the range he might end up taking. I wonder if he would take 5/$150 with a team option for $30 million and a $10 million buyout making it either 5/$160 or 6/$180. Considering the market for his services seems to be small, that might be a deal that gets it done.
  16. Dam8610
    You just stated why fWAR is better for these conversations. I don't care how Bauer performed for the Reds or Indians, I care how he would likely perform for the White Sox for the next 5 or 6 years were he to sign here. As you stated, fWAR is the much more useful tool for that conversation.
  17. Dam8610
    This is exactly why I prefer fWAR for pitchers, because it seems arbitrary to reward or punish a pitcher for the defense and bullpen they have to deal with. Also, you're crazy if you think that 213 innings of basically a league average pitcher isn't worth 3 WAR. There's value in the ability of a starter to take that volume of a workload and provide even league average performance because it takes stress off of your bullpen. What's his ask? At 5/$150 if he produces 20 WAR over the life of the contract (which would be under what I'd expect), it's a $30 million surplus value contract assuming the price of WAR doesn't go up during that period.
  18. Dam8610
    The whole reason the WAR argument came up was the "overpaid #3 starter" comment. Hopefully whomever believed that has been illuminated to the contrary.
  19. Dam8610
    That creates an unfair weight against the 2020 season and STILL comes out at a 4.9 WAR average. So basically, even weighting all the factors one possibly can against Bauer (because none of this analysis gives Bauer the 18-20% premium he should get on his 2018 rate stats for the time he missed in 2018), he still comes out as basically a ~5 WAR pitcher. Are you done arguing that he's an "overpaid #3 starter" yet? Because Fangraphs says 5 WAR is what playoff teams look for from their #1 starters.
  20. Dam8610
    I sure hope not. They should sign Bauer for just money (and a lost second round pick) and just win the ALC (certainly) and the AL (maybe) for the next 3 or so years.
  21. Dam8610
    You do realize doing that would provide the exact same result, right? Here, let's try it, just for fun: 5.8/162 = .0358 3.3/162 = .0204 2.5/60 = .0417 .0358 + .0204 + .0417 = .0978 * 162 = 15.9/3 = 5.3 WAR/162, as I may have stated previously.
  22. Dam8610
    Reading is fundamental. It specifically says WAR/162 to allow for the shorter 2020 season. I gave Bauer nothing, but rather converted to a pace stat, which I feel is the fairest way to compensate for the shortened 2020 season. He was on a near 7 WAR pace in both 2020 and 2018, but I also decided not to use his injury in 2018 to his favor in the calculation, because the idea is to get a fair measurement of his value.
  23. Dam8610
    Now go get Bauer.
  24. Dam8610
    I'm not going to feel bad for the Yankees not winning championships until the White Sox have at least one quarter of the amount of championships the Yankees have.
  25. Dam8610
    Is it possible that was 2018? I have a hard time believing he missed time in 2019 while making 33 starts and pitching 213 innings.
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