chitownsportsfan

Given how bad the projections were the past two seasons -- well under 80 wins on all the major sites -- and now there's some that actually have the Sox winning the division and most have the floor at 80 wins -- I'd think there'd be some optimism around the club. Every season is its own entity. The Sox certainly don't deserve the benefit of the doubt but if you can't get excited for the season on March 1st then I personally don't even know why you follow the team and sport. You can be optimistic and realistic, it's not some false duality. I'm realistically expecting around 80 wins, better but not enough. That said, I'm optimistic that with some internal improvement during the year the Sox could give us a pennant race, or at least a WC2 race. I'd love that.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Mar 1, 2016 -> 04:56 PM) He can hit. Just not well enough to overcome his defense, poor base running and lack of baseball IQ. Actually, last year he didn't hit. If he hits, he's a 1 WAR player. If he doesn't, he's replacement level or worse. He needs to hit. I haven't given up on a 280/330/450 season from him in '16.

QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 1, 2016 -> 03:16 PM) Noodle Arm Eaton can hit 100 mph http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-outfiel...-who-threw-100/ lol, must have really torched the worms around second base! Eaton's problem with his arm seems to be throwing it mostly straight into the ground or wildly off target. If he could get a better launch angle maybe he could put that velocity to better use.

Any defense can be decent if you are good up the middle. Problem is, that ain't the Sox. Eaton I would say is average, has good range but mediocre instincts and a noodle arm. Sal could be good at SS but until he's out there on the 6th day in a row in the middle of July you can't really mark that down. Middle case he's an average defensive SS, much like Ramirez. Rollins? There's no way I can see him being average. Maybe "below average" if he can keep his body fresh but there's not much upside there. As for 2B, well, Lawrie really doesn't grade out well there by either sabermetrics or scouting reports. Not ideal. Not a disaster like Micah but not ideal either. Catcher seems to really be the only position up the middle where you'd say they project above average. Not good. The problems in the corners just add to all this but if they at least had solid defenders at C, SS, 2B and CF you could see how they get to middle of the pack overall. Given that they don't, I really don't see it unless Lawrie is better than advertised, Jose turns into a good 1B, and Avi goes from "disaster" to "passably mediocre".

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 1, 2016 -> 02:02 PM) Daryl Van Schouwen ‏@CST_soxvan 33m33 minutes ago Watch Tim Anderson hit hot liner off VP Ken Williams' golf cart. … via @youtube Williams looks like he's on the Barkley diet. Anderson's swing looks tight and quick. Can easily see why he has maintained a high BA given his speed and contact skills. He really doesn't need to take a lot of walks if he can hit 280-300 in the bigs. That would be like a 280/310/400 line on a conservative .120 iso in his prime. That and solid defense would make him almost an All-Star at SS. If he can hit 300/330/450 in his prime then you really have something.

can the season start already?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 25, 2016 -> 01:21 PM) Levine said he wanted an opt out in Baltimore, so if it was 3/$33 the 1/$13 is less money for sure but it's a smaller scale Heyward took less money. The Sox might have offered him 2/$20, which technically is more money, but in reality, not really if he can get more than $7 million in 2017. Hahn is nothing if not creative with contracts it really does seem like the Sox don't have much budget room not only this year but in upcoming years. They couldn't extend a vesting option for 2018 that would have put them over the top? 2 years 20 million with a 13 million vesting (say 500 pa) option for '18 might have gotten the deal done.

What a bummer, the Sox couldn't top that offer?

Most White Sox move ever. WTF, he better not actually make the team. edit: actually, looking at his stats maybe he should make the team. He hasn't cratered quite as much as I thought.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2016 -> 10:41 PM) I think recurring fluid problems related to cartilage (and we have zero idea if 90 cubic centimeters of fluid drained two years ago is particularly significant or not) that are ongoing for two years now aren't completely minor because of 1) his size, 2) the fact that he's seen a decrease in velocity of roughly 1.5 MPH from his prime years with the Reds, although we'd have to look month by month last year at the fangraphs charts, as there were indications of velocity coming back a bit more the 2nd half, 3) the fact that his injury treatments/prognosis and readiness to pitch have caused issues in the past with at least one training staff. There's a reason the Sox got him at the price they did -- his medicals. Fluid in the knee is just a symptom of structural damage and is the body's response to injury so in itself it tells us nothing other than something isn't right in his knee. Now, pitching isn't exactly golf but it's not basketball either. Can they manage the pain and swelling and can he pitch through some soreness and stiffness? Who knows. He probably will be skipping starts left and right so Johnson better be ready.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 18, 2016 -> 06:27 PM) Not really. If KC was only offering 3/50 at that point, but the White Sox offer came in and forced them to go higher, plus Gordon never really had interest in going where but KC if he could help it, then that is the textbook definition of leverage. Likely scenario from the Royals was "tell us when you get a serious offer and we'll do our best to match it". Likely scenario from the Sox: "here's what we can offer if you get a better offer come back and we'll see what we can do". At that point the Royals outbid anything the Sox could put out and that was that. I agree it was a classic case of using other others to set your salary range and then eventually coming back to the place it made the most sense for both sides (for both the royals and gordon) to sign.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Feb 18, 2016 -> 05:30 PM) At games, posting here. I knew what they were then and had much different expectations. There is no excuse not to finish the job at this point though. They have far too much top end talent to not being going after it harder. That doesnt mean they need to trade the likes of Anderson or Fulmer or even Adams, but there were incremental upgrades there to strengthen this team. Sure they've done a decent job, I would even go as far to say that I've liked every move theyve made this offseason. Not replacing Avi though deserves an incomplete final grade. He's been an absolute butcher in every facet of the game. I can understand this. It's been a long time in the wilderness.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Feb 18, 2016 -> 05:27 PM) I agree with this. It sounded like Gordon and Cespedes just used the Sox/others as leverage to get the deal they wanted from their incumbent clubs. We would of been outbid by Mike Ilitch for Upton and perhaps the Sox don't see Fowler and his lackluster splits against RHP's as a worthy investment. The reality for a team like the White Sox that strongly values financial flexibility is any kind of major free agent signing is going to have to be a perfect fit. A good example is Jose Abreu. They acted aggressively and decisively in his pursuit, outbidding several other clubs. That's a nice way of putting their inability or unwillingness to hand out large FA contracts. That said, I don't see the point in beating that dead horse. It is what it is. I'm not going to root for a new team and the Sox aren't going to turn into the Tigers, just the way it is. Maybe when JR sells but until then they will be run at least most of the time -- as a business with a hard cap on payroll.

QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 18, 2016 -> 05:17 PM) I'll wait until the performance on the field illustrates that. Last year at this time, we thought Hahn put together an upper-tier team. who thought that? Certainly wasn't the projection systems that had them at 76-78 wins. This year I've seen them lowest at 82 and highest at 88. They are better on paper now then any time in the last few years.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Feb 18, 2016 -> 04:46 PM) Really makes you wonder if they ever even had a plan honestly. I mean, KW sure made it sound like Hahn wasnt prepared earlier this offseason. I have no idea what this FO is doing anymore, and it's really tough to rationalize why I continue to give them so much of my time and energy. I wish the Bears were good so I didnt need to agonize over the Sox all winter. my goodness. Where were you in 13-15 then? Those teams were much worse on paper and the system was consistently dead last in MLB. As I've continually said, the ORG Hahn inherited was arguably in dead last in overall system talent: international, minors, and MLB. Now they are clearly middle tier without significantly mortgaging the future. Overall, they've done a decent job. Not a great job, but not a bad one either.

Pnoles' piece was fine (other than the over wrought explanation of standard distributions) but nobody would ever, ever be against adding WAR in the abstract. But in the real world the Sox have a hard budget and player that they have invested in like Avi. These are considerations that a narrow "just add more WAR" argument avoids. The Sox are betting on themselves, including their player development, which seems a pretty silly bet I acknowledge. But if they actually are better than they expect THEN you really go for it in July. The tenor on this board, when the projections have the Sox as actually a fringe contender, compared to last year, when the projections had them as not even a fringe contender, is just bizarre to me. The team is BETTER ON PAPER now then it was last year with all the moves. Every season needs to be viewed as its own entity. Don't let the failures of the last few years color your opinion on this year's squad. If the team sucks again, yea, it's probably time to blow it up and fire a bunch of people. But on paper, there's reason to be optimistic this year -- much, much moreso than 2014 and 2015.

Can't believe I'm arguing on the side of 2k5, surely it's a new year! Pnoles had a piece on SSS the other day pedantically explaining an normal distribution and how another 2 WAR would put the Sox closer to the occasional outcomes around 88 wins (and thus playoffs). Well OK, but every team in the Central other than the Twins is in the same damn boat. I'd much rather wait and see how things look in July and then see where the Sox are looking relative the division and wild card race. What Pnoles really never acknowledged is that the Sox are just as likely to fall on the wrong side of the distribution curve as the the "right" side. By waiting until July you get much, much more information on where your team is. Other than signing Fowler for a reasonable deal I really think the position right now is "wait and see".

QUOTE (MDWhiteSoxFan @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 10:53 PM) Report is Baltimore is expected to sign Gallardo and Fowler. 2 years 12-13 mil a year for Fowler. That is an absolute steal.

So if the Sox sign Fowler they give up their 2nd round pick? Personally that's a no brainer to me. The pick doesn't matter. He's a big big enough upgrade overall where I see no problems paying him 2/25 or hell, even 3/32. Unlike Jackson, Fowler is a "young" 29 and doesn't rely as much on his athleticism to produce. I'd 100% be on board with Fowler even with a slight over pay.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 09:32 PM) Honest question, but what can Jackson realistically expect if Fowler ends up with a 2/$25M deal? I'm thinking something like 2/$16M, which would be a pretty solid price IMO. Yes, just give Jackson a 2 year deal. Chasing these stupid incremental upgrades is exactly how they got stuck with La Roche. Let's do it all over! Nobody else looks at his medicals, his stats, and will give him anything but the Sox are only Austin Jackson away from REALLY pumping up the fan base. I understand the losing has beat you guys down but the Sox have only 25 roster spots and they only have so much money. This isn't a team that does well chasing incremental FA upgrades.

QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 09:13 PM) So much awesomeness in this post. Shocking to think Ventura and possibly Hahn will let their job fall on the shoulders of Avi and LaRoche. If you think the delta between Avi and Jackson in 2016 will be 3.7 WAR you're off your rocker. Austin Jackson is not putting this team over the top. There's a reason nobody has bothered signing him. I mis read his age earlier he's "only" 29 instead of 30 and you're going to be asking him to play a new position, RF -- FWIW he has a negative fWAR in RF in an ultra small sample size. Avi sucks but just like Viciedo the scenario is such that you pretty much have to give him another 300 or so PA to figure out if you can safely cut bait. A torn labrum is no joke and an obvious reason why he was unable to consistently generate bat speed or play any sort of defense last year. I'm not expecting him to turn into a 4 WAR player but would anyone be shocked if both him and Jackson finished around 1 fWAR this season? It really surprises me how many folks think the Austin Jackson is some surefire upgrade. I just don't think you've looked at his stats or watched him play since he left Detroit. He's clearly a player in decline that relies on his athletic ability (which is leaving him) for most of his value. FFS he had a .311 OBP and struck out 22% of the time last year -- and this was a bounceback for him! Jackson is a better player than Avi, nobody is going to dispute that. But there's more to it than just that.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 07:41 PM) The only assets Jackson would cost is money. Jackson defense alone is a big upgrade over Avi. the assets are the opportunity cost. You're spending money and a roster spot and basically giving up on what could be an asset in the future -- Avi -- and for what? You're giving up flexibility that could be used on a much better upgrade later on. You guys that are pining for Jackson -- have you watched him play since he left Detroit? He's on the wrong side of 30 and put up a whopping 1.7 bWAR last year. Steamer projects him for 1.1 fWAR. He's no great shakes and you're asking him to play RF mostly, where he's played a total of 22 games in his career. The upgrade to go get is Fowler. That is a clear upgrade. Jackson is not worth the opportunity cost.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 07:23 PM) Then they should go out and add Jackson. I'm not ready to pull my pitchfork out just yet, but there is absolutely no excuse for not adding another OF. It would be a sign that the front office is still high on Avi as an OF, which is an incredibly risky gamble to take given how winnable this division is this year. Hahn should be held accountable if Avi is given a starting role and he ends up being one of the primary reasons we miss the playoffs this year. Put the pitchfork down and take a deep breath. I'll go ahead and say right now that the difference between Jackson's 2016 WAR and Avi's will be under 1, plus or minus.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 07:23 PM) Then they should go out and add Jackson. I'm not ready to pull my pitchfork out just yet, but there is absolutely no excuse for not adding another OF. It would be a sign that the front office is still high on Avi as an OF, which is an incredibly risky gamble to take given how winnable this division is this year. Hahn should be held accountable if Avi is given a starting role and he ends up being one of the primary reasons we miss the playoffs this year. Why would they give up assets for Austin Jackson? Austin Jackson's .5 to 1.5 WAR is not going to do jack s*** better to just tell Avi to sink or swim. If Avi is -2 WAR in June and the Sox are in contention then you bring in a guy like Jackson but not until then. Better to hold onto the assets and see how things look later on. If some stud 3-5 WAR OF was available then yea sure, fug Avi, but replacing Avi with Jackson is fools gold.

Team is better on paper right now then it was this time last year. Avi is a year older and a year further out from that s***ty injury. Carlos has a good 100+ innings of MLB work under his belt. Latos is better than Danks. Danks himself is better than '15 Johnson. I'm excited for the season. Last year I was hoping for 86 wins and realistically thinking 82. This year I'm hoping for 88 and realistically thinking 84, which could perhaps trigger a play in game for the 2nd wild card. Let's get this ish going. Too bad my car is in the shop and pending the cost to fix it probably will have to cancel my plans to head down to Tempe next month.