chitownsportsfan

For some reason I always type BABIB instead of BABIP. ISO just takes away the singles from slugging to give a better measure of "power" Ichiro has a decent slugging percentage but then again he bats .340 most years and isn't a good power hitter. PA is just a good denominator for getting averages for things like walk rate and strikeout rate.

Yea, I agree with everything except Uribe/AJ--I would bat Uribe 6th and AJ 7th. And I don't want Uribe to be switching places with Gooch at any point. And on a related note: why do you cite a certified idiot as evidence for your L/R/L lineup? I mean, that's like citing Joe Morgan on OPS.

I guess I didn't NorthSideSox72. Well good, I'm not that worried now, but I'll only really believe when I see it on April 1st.

Thome should bat 3rd according to reason and I'm sure he would if KW was managing. However, Ozzie is managing and I'm not sure if he'll agree with reason on this one.

Yea. Dye had a very solid campaign in 2005, overcoming a slow start to post a respectable 274 .333 .512. While not amazing numbers for a corner outfielder, throw in his salary and good defense and Dye is a keeper. Couple interesting things to note about Dye last year: 1) His ISO power numbers where the highest of his career. Also, the percent of fly balls he hit that turned into HR's was 16%, a very healthy percent. It seems Dye benefits greatly from playing at homer happy US Cellular. 2) His BABIP was around 285, among the lowest number of his career. He consistently posted a BABIB of over .300 in his "prime" years. This suggests to me that he's lost some ability to make consistent good contact at the expense of greater power--not a bad tradeoff given he plays half his games at the cell. 3) His walk rate continued to decline, to only 8% of his PA's. As recently as 03, his walk rate was 11%. Like most of Dye's stats, this one was hurt by a very poor spring. So what does this all mean? I think we can expect about the same from Dye this year. He benefits greatly from hitting at US Cell as a right-handed pull hitter, and he seems to have put his injuries behind him. Hopefully Ozzie's newfound depth in the outfield gives plenty of time to rest Dye and keep him fresh throughout the season. A line of 500 PA .279 .332 .520 is what I see for Dye.

Yea, I should have just said "expert prediction"

Should this be the official experts "prediction" thread?

I know I'm going to be pissed if it's a tight race in late August and Ozzie sends Widger, Ozuna and Borchard out to do some damage on a Sunday.

I'm worried about BA's confidence early in the season coming off the injury, obviously spring training will be more indicative of how he's feeling and what we can expect than more estabilished guys with a proven history. Should make things more interesting though. Borchard, if he even makes the team, will probably not be playing center, unless it's on one of Ozzie's crazy Sunday lineups.

Smart pickup by KW here. Classic low risk high potential signing. It's good that the Sox have room on the 40 man roster right now, but it might just mean a lack of organizational depth.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writ...view/index.html As preview articles go, this one isn't exactly "in depth". Only a paragraph or so for the Royals, Twins, and Tigers. It doesn't say anything we don't know about the Sox thats for sure. Thought I'd link it though since nobody else did. Just another "eh" mainstream media article for me.

Thanks to the internet, you at least know that you are smarter than someone.

Yea, I read a few things about this on THT's and SSS. It's a point well taken, and there are certainly a few wins in being able to score 4-5 runs more consistently--especially with the staff the Sox have. I agree though, it's not nearly the most important stat in terms of why the Sox were good last year. The run prevention is. It's still something to consider though. Ozzie's intuation (nudged by a huge dose of KW giving him a stud staff) might just be right on this one.

Ok, I've gone into my time machine and have pulled the following out of the past: Year W L RS RA 2005 99 63 741 645 2004 83 79 865 831 2003 86 76 791 715 2002 81 81 856 798 Yep, "wins" did get us a world championship last year--can't argue that. But gee, you think a little good old fashioned run prevention didn't help? That was the main difference between 2005 and 2002-2004, not some myth like "Ozzieball". Please don't say that I don't realize the importance of being able to move the runner over and play for one run. I realize playing for 1 run helps win close games. Having a shovel helps dig a hole, but not as much as a bulldozer. Get it?

Well, I don't care much about sacrifices, not unless they come in the late innings of a tight game. Playing for 1 run will get you 1 run.

Ozzie thinks "BABIP" is a Uribespeak for "more sunflower seeds" You think Bobby Cox might use it? I think Ozzie is a great manager for every reason having to do with corny things like unity and leadership, but only average when it comes to statistical optimization. Fortunetly, it's a pretty weak playing field for both categories.

OK, well I for one hope Ozzie looks at: p/pa k/bb babip Then I hope he throws all those stats out due to small sample size and the level of spring training compeition.

The thing is, I agree that Gooch will produce better down in the order. However, I don't think he's going to become enough better to warrant moving Uribe into the number two position. Lets face it, the Sox are not a good OBP team. They rely on run prevention and the long ball, which netted a championship. Uribe does a good job at run prevention and is unlikely to be good at much more. It makes more sense efficiency wise to play to your strenghts. Gooch is one of the few decent OBP guys the Sox have, he must bat high.

Quizas. Then again, games in April count as much as Games in September when all is said and done.

Whenever stats and traditional scouting ("free swinger") agree it almost always means a correct reading. This is a real no brainer imo--Uribe bats down in the order.

Exactly SSH2005. Any OBP the Sox get from defensive wizard and good power Uribe (for position) should be considered gravy. To expect different and try and make him something he isn't would be foolish. I really hope KW realizes this and convinces Ozzie to just say no on this one. And I don't care how spring training pans out. Spring training is for finding your 4th outfielder and 12th pitcher, not for making major changes to your batting order and starting lineup. Not unless you're the Royals anyway.

Ok, so first move he makes you disagree with I want an explanation. It can involve the sun and moon, but I need something.

Here comes my insanely long and detailed statcentric reply. First, to use Uribe's line in 2004 when he had 260 AB's in the 2 hole is silly. 260 AB's is not enough to get any sort of strong conclusion about a player. Lets say that Juan's last two seasons with the White Sox are a decent prediction of what he will in 2006. 2005: .252 .301 .412 .713 2004: .283 .327 .506 .833 Now, lets look at little deeper into the statistics and see what the cause for Uribe's sudden collapse in 2005 might have been caused by. Was Juan unlucky? Or was he lucky in 2004? Batting average balls on balls play is a great statistic because it represents the amount of luck a player had in a given year. Obviously, some playes get more than their share of "seeing eye singles" and "ducksnorts"--and some get less. It also can be coupled with line drive data to see if a player is a really excellent hitter, or just got really lucky. Obviously players who hit alot of line drive's have higher BABIP and thus higher AVG, OPS, etc. If you to to: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playe...age=7&type=full You can see very clearly that Uribe's BABIB was higher than expected in 2004 and lower than expected in 2005. In other words, Juan was lucky in 2004 and unlucky in 2005. I'd expect 2006 to fall somewhere in the middle. Notive that the nearly .030 change in BABIP corresponds very well to the change in Juan's batting average change from the same years. Juan didn't become any better or any worse at hitting for average--it was simple luck that made a big difference. Aren't stats interesting? Now, say that Juan's BABIP returns to around .300 this year. (which is very close to the league average). So raise his OBP by 20 points from last year and his slugging an additional twenty points. This give us .321 for an OBP. Of course, OBP is also influenced by a hitters control of the strike zone. Here, there is reason to be optimistic about Uribe's OBP and his hitting in general. If you go here: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs%5C454_batt...ll_20051002.png You see that Juan is steadily becoming a more patient hitter. This is obviously a good thing. I'd say we can expect the trend to continue, and so lets put .321 to .335 as a projected range for Uribe. (notice the lack of anything resembling a regression equation here--leave that for the serious nerds, or at least those with more energy and time for this stuff) Iguchi put up a .342 OPB last year. His BABIP was roughly .320, which not having data from Japan, I can't project to drop or rise. I'd bet on a modest drop, as Iguchi seems to hit a fair number of line drives, so lets say it falls 10 points and his OBP falls to .332. Not great, but still better than what Uribe projects. Now, those are just my amateur half-assed calculations. PECOTA, BP's mundo projection service, projects Uribe for 267 .315 .448, which seems pretty close to what I just projected. Pecota and I both think Juan will never be on on-base guy. As a fielder and decent pop from SS guy, he is a godsend. I love Juan, he just isn't going to be a good number two hitter. Just for sheets and giggles, here is the PECOTA for Gooch: 275 .346 .420 While above average for a 2B, and nothing to shake a stick at, I'd put the OBP slightly lower .340 say, and the slugging higher, up around .450, for a .790 OPS. I don't buy into the whole "let Iguchi swing away down low in the order". Iguchi is a better relative contact hitter than Iguchi, and Juan is the better relative power hitter. To confuse that would be run scoring suicide during this season. Another interesting stat is that Juan's G/F ratio in both 2004 and 2005 was .83. Gooch's in 2005 was 1.46! That in a nutshell is the difference between the two, something that basic subjective observation tells us: Juan is a free swinging bomber and Gooch is a disciplined contact hitter. Was it caused by their place in the order. Perhaps, but to me that is to against both subjective intuition and objective statistical analysis.

Regression to the mean. I honestly don't think Contreras will be much better or worse than he was over the course of 2005. One half magical half season will not convince me that he has completely cured his control problems. Maybe Don Cooper is a pitching coach god--I'll glady eat crow if he is. However, lacking statistical evidence to support that, I'll hold off on expecting it.

I would agree that the "ceiling" for this years staff is def higher than last years. But I don't think the "mean" projection is. Vasquez is a huge upgrade over last years Bmac and Duque. But unfortunetly some improvement out of the 5th starter isn't likely to overcome what I see as likely regression from Jon G and Buehrle. Buehrle was great last year, and his W/L record doesn't shot it. His peripherials had him as top 3 in the AL easy. I peg him as top 10 in the AL this year, nothing to shake a stick at, but not elite category. Very Good yes, but not elite like 2005. Jon G I see coming back down to earth and posting something around a 4.00 ERA, good numbers, but not as good as 2005 again. I should say that I think there is a slight chance the pitching staff outperforms last years, but a slightly greater chance that they underperform from last year. Also, the 'ceiling" on this group is much higher than last year. If Vasquez has a great year, (and that possibility is another thread and post in and of itself) then I agree, this staff will be hand down the best in baseball.