chitownsportsfan

Haha, cool post Finn. Yea you'd think any pro ball player could play a decent LF after 1000 or so fungoes in spring. apparently not given Viciedo's problems! There aren't a lot of good options. I'm not completely sold on Melky but I continue to think he's the best option if he'll sign for 4 years at ~15 million AAV (averaged salary per year).

I've been looking at Ethier -- was he injured last year or something because his batted ball data is a mess. 51% GBs and 5.6% HR per FB on the odd chance he didn't kill a worm? He just screams "old" IMO. Only .7 fWAR last year and his wRC+ sunk to just 98. He's basically a good player that is now old. Will he bounce back into an average player? I have no idea but Melky costs only money. If the Dodgers want to trade him for a bag of balls and include cash then OK, let's deal, but paying anything of actual value (aka any prospect in the top 20) seems a huge overpay. His contract is f***ing awful. Through '17 at an AAV of 17 million with a vesting option for '18 if he hits 550 PA. No, f*** it, god no. Not unless the Dodgers sent over 40 million, and usually the commish doesn't look too kindly on those deals.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Dec 13, 2014 -> 08:42 PM) A douche undoubtedly, but could the apparent Rodon negotiation olive branch (I'm calling it an olive branch because SB/CR seemed to get everything they could have hoped for, with little leverage, imo), possibly be a bridge to a Harper having interest in the Palehose? Sure, he's a tool, but he'd be OUR tool. Change of scenery, mellow dude like RV might do him good. Not a chance.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 13, 2014 -> 07:21 PM) What is the difference between league average and a replacement level players? An "average starter" is usually considered around 2 WAR. A replacement player is often considered to be an abstraction but in reality it's concrete and important: it's a guy you could grab off a AAA team at any time. Think Josh Phegley, Jordan Danks, Rienzo, guys like that. Not saying that's all they ever will be, but that's all they are currently. This is a good primer on it: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

QUOTE (BigFinn @ Dec 13, 2014 -> 06:25 PM) I've got a feeling that Billy Beane looks at Josh Phegley and sees Josh Donaldson II. Both started their professional careers as catchers. Both were better hitters than receivers. I wouldn't be surprised if Beane gives Phegley a third baseman's mitt, sends Phegley to AAA Nashville, tells him he'll be up in a few months, and sells off Brett Lawrie to the highest bidder come the July 31 trade deadline. Phegley could come up later this summer and surprise quite a few people. Still and all, the Sox one year of Samardzija, a top 15 pitcher MLB pitcher, and a window of opportunity to sign him from now until next November. As for signing Melky Cabrera, there is a theory that if you're going to make a commitment to one free agent attached to a compensation pick, you might as well go all in. The Cubs did that in the 2005-6 off-season (the 2006 draft was the year that they picked Samardzija in the 5th round and signed him to a first round contract). The Cubs gave up their 2nd round pick when they signed Bobby Howry (Cleveland got that pick). They gave up their 3rd round pick when they signed Scott Eyre (this sounds like they wanted to put the White Sox 2000 bullpen back together!)(San Francisco got that pick). They gave up their 4th round pick when they signed Jacque Jones (the Twinkies got that pick). Those were the days before picks had slotted monetary values, and teams were faced with penalties for exceeding their overall amateur draft spending. So the Cubs could afford to bundle the money they would have spent on those picks and offer Samardzija 1st round money. Every time the Sox sign a free agent with a compensation pick attached, like Melky Cabrera, we lose the draft pick and the slotted money. But we would still get Melky Cabrera. My concern about Cabrera is how dependent is he on the use of PEDs to be a successful player? He was caught using in 2012. If you pull out his 2012 numbers from his career stats, his slash line is .279/.330/.404. That looks like a league average ballplayer to me. Four years at $14M per year is a lot of money for league average production. Nori Aoki has just about the same level of production without the PED suspicions, the high-price/long-length contract, and the loss of the draft choice. But I don't know who else is out there. Also, you know the 2005 team had a lot of "league average ballplayers", right? You need some to go along with the stars. What the Sox currently have is a replacement level LF. An average LF would be a huge upgrade.

QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Dec 13, 2014 -> 02:32 PM) I'm pretty sure they call US Cellular, Coors East. I'll take my chances that he will produce here. US Cellular is a good offensive environment but it's nothing like Coors. I'd be worried about CarGo coming to a tougher league and a much tougher park. Cool link here that shows exactly how it would affect him: http://www.baseballmonster.com/MLBParkFactors.aspx

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 13, 2014 -> 12:58 AM) The draft pick doesn't worry me nearly as much as his Terrible, nearly Viciedo bad 2013. Well was in 88 game sample obviously brought it upon himself. Hell maybe he even knew he was gonna get the guillotine and was mentally checked out. Unlike Tank, Melky has a track record of being average or better. It's certainly a risk anytime you sign an average player entering his decline, but I think it's a risk the Sox have to take. They have a lot of great contracts on this team, MLB revenue has reached stupid levels, spend the money. Even if it doesn't work out it's not crippling.

Get it done. This is the 2 WAR Chicago needs to really push into serious contention without breakout years from guys like Sanchez or Garcia or even regression from Alexei and Abreu. A 3rd round pick is nothing. The expected WAR is around .2 for a career. Not much out there at that point without luck.

Cespedes isn't some great prize. Especially when you consider that Comerica is gonna knock down that ISO, and as powerful of hitter as he is, he doesn't have elite power and his contact and OBP tools are below average. His OBP last season was .301 FFS. and of course he's a rental that wont' get a qualifying offer most likely. It's a fair trade but Detroit just thinned out their rotation to add 1.5 WAR in LF (they already had the 1 to 2 WAR Davis) when in reality they probably should have just signed Melky and stuck him in LF. That would have cost only money. Detroit is in WIN f***ING NOW MODE. This move doesn't move their needle at all in '15, IMO it moves it back from probably 88 to 86 or 87 wins. The Simon trade moved it back another .5 win. This division is WIDE OPEN!

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 01:05 PM) If you want to look at it glass half full, Porcello seems like he's been around forever, but he was a top 20 prospect years ago, reached the majors at 20 years old and is only just turning 26. Last year was the first year he finally put up a shiny ERA, but he's been pretty good in FIP and WAR for a few years now. I think he has finally put it together and will be a solid #3 or #2 starter from here on out. And for the record Cespedes is also a free agent at the end of the year for the Tigers. Wilson is the definition of a AAAA reliever, whose ERA is an outlier according to FIP. The other kid they got in the deal wouldn't even see the big leagues for another 4 years or so, if he doesn't fall apart between now and then. I don't think Detroit did bad, but I like the trade better for Red Sox since they struck out on the big names pitchers, but was able to trade from an area of surplus to fill their needs, while getting good value in return. good post.

Gun to my head I would do Ackley for dayan straight up. Viciedos adventures in left put stress and pressure on the stud top of rotation and closer guys they now have. At least Ackley will be avg or better in left. Last thing we need is a viciedo "triple" pissing off sale and leading to over exertion, to give an example. Viciedos errors are the most egregious frustrating types for both the staff and fans.

Suarez is gone. The just put all their eggs in a basket of a guy that missed all of 14 with a serious leg injury and has little mlb track record before that. If Iglesias isn't 15 runs above average at SS he is a .5 war to 1.5 war guy at best. His entire value is in defense and I don't care if he is Ozzie smith if he is hitting 180/220/250 in June he isn't a good over all starting SS . you gotta hit some.

I can't f***ing wait to get a real keyboard here tonight so I can argue better. Typing on tablet sucks I am 4 days out of biletrral patellar tendon repair and just now starting to get life back in order. Noesis splits as a Sox are very comparable to Simons. And Simon has no ability to eat innings asmamreliever turned starter that collapsed in august and sept.

And his career FIP is 3.58. Didn't know WHIP was more important. Thanks Greensox. Goodness enjoy the ride guys Hahn just turned Rienz o into a guy that by the numbers probably would have been the Soxs 2nd best pen arm last year. Missing bats is a great equalizer.

Rick Hahn is based god.

Straight from Dave d the tigers are out on scherzer. Gotta love when your rivals have days like this. Bless you boys is an angry mean place right now. Simon is trash come on I'd rather have Hector he is 8 years younger with a similiar 2014!

The red Sox have 5 fourth starters in their rotation. Strong team? Eh. IMO they are around an 80 win bunch. White Sox are currently around 83 IMO. Both team need moremgood moves plus some development luck to make playoffs IMO. The al easdt is bad tho, might be worst in AL.

No pick is a good sign. No room for a project on this years squad.

The tigers are worse now than 24 hours ago. Wow. Thanks guys. Have fun in 3rd place.

Eh how often does the #10-20 ranked prospect on a bottom 1\3 farm (ravelo) do s***? Bassitt considers himself a reliever and that limits his upside. So does his lack of pure stuff as a starter. Semien whatever he is obs a guy that Sox could regret trading. But the Phegley stuff? Haven't read a single post on AN with a clue that he is a nothing. His upside is .5 war backup catcher. He has a better chance of being a car salesman at 30 than in MLB. The Sox are thin at catcher and considered him a throw in. Says a lot.

Athletics nation is hilarious. In their opinion semien is an above avg ss for the next decade, phegley is a promising "mlb ready catcher" (lol ok he is literally the definition of aaaa) and bassitt and ravelo will contribute with long mlb careers. Get real guys it was a very avg haul with Semien keying the deal. Them talking about phegley is especially lol worthy. Come on man.

The poster above me didn't know it...

Yep not a lot of room in the alleys and pretty large foul ground by modern park standards. The cell is playing only slightly above avg for runs the last few years I believe .

Uh you have to keep the pick on the 25 man active roster I believe at least 110 or so days. You can't just draft a guy and stash him in aa or something he will get offered back. That rules out pretty much anyone other than a near mlb ready reliever. Maybe a utility guy. Deshields will probably be long gone by 8.

Noesi has value but he would have more in late Jan.