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Everything posted by chitownsportsfan
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I think @ptatc and other trainers would readily tell you that just in the last 20 years there's been a revolution in the science of performance -- in more ways than one. This has naturally led to increased velocity. Just read the opening chapter of The MVP Machine it's all just physics. Faster you rotate your arm, faster that ball is coming out. And with video analysis, force measuring sensors, portability of technology and scalability (not to even mention diet and advanced physical training) -- it's all come together to help athletes run faster, jump higher and throw baseballs harder than ever on human earth.
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If you had that list in OOTP you'd have a 20/35 brown bar next to every guy and one time out of thousand one of them actually pans out into something more than a decent regular. If the Sox get one useful player out of that group I'd be happy. For every optimistic take that says Blake will grow into his frame and start to hit for power 8/10 guys like him never do find the power and remain AAAA talents or in his case probably a 4th OF.
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No kidding! Every single baseball fan that wants to understand the statistical revoltuion in baseball needs to read Tom Tango's work. It, more than money ball (not even close) explains the beauty of the game to the math inclined. I don't even really like math I got a C- in calc and dropped it but baseball only has so many outcomes, broken up into nice little discrete chunks, and the players replicate the dice rolls every single night for us to put into our databases and run the regressions on. This stuff, wOBA, the linear weights of events that led to its creation, this shit now almost 30 years old and many were working on more primitive (but still better than OPS) versions long before that. In many ways fans that are just learning about sabermetrics now (with fWAR for example) are trying to learn Calculus when they can't do factoring or order of operation. It ain't going to work.
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I posted last night about many posters' inability to assess a spectrum of future outcomes and then properly group and weight them. Some people refer to it as "smearing" outcomes. I think you have a blind spot here you also argue it with your "hit is vastly more valuable than a walk" trope. Tom Tango already did all the math on this shit he has the run values let me see if I can find his link. Here you go. Data is a bit dated but it's still relevant. Look at the data on runs scored with 1 out runner on 1st. A walk is almost identical to a hit. You can read the rest of the table yourself I'm sure. Mostly you'll find the same. In many cases, some surprising, a walk is equivalent to a hit for scoring runs.
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intuitively that makes perfect sense as a soft looping line drive looks "same in the box score" as a rocket. This might be in part some of the origins of the "level swing back up the middle" theory of hitting that prevailed for so long until the launch angle revolution and so much batted ball data for MLB scouted players.