Balta1701

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 03:20 PM) In 2014, as a team, we ranked 28th out of 30 teams (Cleveland / Houston ranking below us) w/-61.7 rating. Tigers were 26th at -57.9. 25th worst team was Rangers at -24.5. It is safe to say we haven't done anything to adjust our metrics that significantly (barring substantial improvements with our existing talent pool, most of which would be very difficult to project). Bottom line...I find very little reason to believe we will suddenly be close to middle of the pack (again...unless Connor / Melky / Avisail all make substantial improvements). Just not feasible, imo. Also, if you look back over the last 2 seasons, we rank 27th, so it isn't like last year was an outlier. 2 points: 1. Well of course adding in 2013 doesn't help, that was the sloppiest, most air headed, comically disinterested team on defense I've ever seen. 2. A few things that should actually improve in 2014, in addition to Melky > Viciedisaster, would include Abreu being a lot better at 1b since we hopefully won't have a couple months of him learning basic footwork and no Dunn/Konerko there.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 03:16 PM) How accurate have these FG projections been in the past? Another thing that annoys me is that there's no "1 sigma" margin of error posted and since this is a prediction stat you ought to actually be able to calculate that for every season.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 02:49 PM) In general, fans are never realistic about their players' upcoming regression. We always assume the guys that underperformed will get better, but the guys that overperformed have "broken out." If we're being realistic, we'll probably get worse performance out of 3B, SS, and C. We're hoping for upside out of RF, CF, and 2B. There's a good chance we'll see noticeable negative regression out of Sale and Quintana, because they both had AWESOME seasons. I mean, can you really ever "project" a guy to be a Cy Young finalist? We can't bank a 2-flat ERA out of Sale any more than we can bank a league average bat out of Gillaspie. There are TONS of problem with these WAR projections, but there's some truth in what they illustrate, which is that it isn't safe to expect that every player on our team performs within 10% of their absolute peaks. The reality though is that some guys should get better, some guys should get worse, right? It shouldn't be "every single guy will perform worse than he did last year" as shown here. What I found fascinating is that with a projection of "every single guy on the White Sox has a worse 2015 than they did in 2014", we're still right on the edge of what would make that a competitive team.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 01:39 PM) Interesting to look back on this thread now. http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=93643 I'm surprised that he's that low of a price.I think that's the first time I've said that this offseason.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 10:35 AM) I didn't realize Carlos Sanchez was suddenly Dustin Pedroia. Where on Earth did I say that? "Solid MLB-caliber starter at 2b" = "Dustin Pedroia or better"?

what, mine? Ugh isn't the appropriate response to a person posting out of order?

Last year, once teams got into the range of ~30 fWAR, the had a decent shot at being competitive for the playoffs. In that list I added up over 28.5 based on the projections. It's also remarkable how it projects literally every single white sox starting pitcher to have a worse season than last year, by a lot.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 10:01 AM) I think you are setting it up to say "see the moves were bad and Robin is an idiot because they didn't make the playoffs." Frankly, no, I'm not going to say those moves were bad. Rick Hahn pulled a rabbit out of his hat and has a solid roster with a legit MLB starter at every positions, a solid pitching staff, and a seemingly solid bullpen. But yeah, if this team comes out of the gates 10-15 and it's the same April clown show we've seen the last couple years and then winds up missing the playoffs, there's a pretty clear, well-earned fall guy. He's got a roster with a huge salary boost, literally filled every single missing hole, and at least key guy in that is on a 1 year contract and a free agent at the end of this year. Darn well better expect them to be prepared to win now.

ugh.

QUOTE (Big Hurtin @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 09:21 AM) Well, Robin still makes the lineup. /wet blanket By adding in a switch hitting RF, they've pretty much actually given Robin the materials he wants. He can balance lefties and righties throughout. They just need someone they have confidence in to take some PAs from LaRoche and Gillaspie from the RH side.

QUOTE (MDWhiteSoxFan @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 09:19 PM) Balta I am wondering how you feel about any of the off season moves? Just want to hear your view on how they did outside of this recent signing. I respect anyone's opinion to be sour on a signing, but I still personally have a hard time having trouble support the entire organization over 1 signing. But my guess since I am new you and others offended are of the Old School decent. Again I respect your opinion on that matter as well, just isn't me I'd say that on paper this team has had a stunningly successful offseason. There are still issues like the bench setup but the roster on paper is strong enough that there's little reason to think they will be major issues and one or two minor moves could really help that. From an emotional perspective alone I don't like this guy in particular, let alone a guy from Valpo but I'll get past that. From this point there's literally no excuse for this team to miss the playoffs. Anything less is a huge failure.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 08:54 PM) 1st offense=50 games. The extra 15 was for his character attack on an innocent person. They were also threatening him with a 100 game suspension for a secomd positve. So poor character deserves an additional suspension, yet Melky Cabrera's admitted poor character did not earn a second suspension. Ergo, the statement that he served his time is false by your admission because lying and fabricating, character moves, earned Braun a larger suspension. You've done a dynamite job convincing me that he never fully served his time. Thanks.

offseason schmoffseason, no one will care unless it turns into wins early in the season.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 08:31 PM) LOL. Braun lied, got off, ruined an innocent person's reputation, and made MLB look foolish when his name re-appeared on a list. That is worth the extra 15 games. MLB investigators took a separate trip to the Dominican Republic to investigate based on Melky's lies.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 08:10 PM) Whatever. He did his time. These are uneducated guys in a foreign country. They tend to listen to their representation during moments their source of income is threatened.. I really don't care if you are comfortable with it or not, but I think you do know you have been fine with people who have done the same thing this guy did, the only difference was they were smart enough not to get caught. Technically no, he did his time for the steroid usage, but he didn't do any time for the lying. Ryan Braun lied and got extra time. Cabrera lied and got no extra time. So "he did his time" also seems weak.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 08:00 PM) Do you really think that was his idea? These guys do what they are told. And that's your idea of an excuse? He was told to go along with a coverup and did so while lying to people and everything should be forgotten because he didn't know better than to lie to investigators? You're not helping me become more comfortable with this.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 07:41 PM) He didn't create it. His agent had someone do it. I believe said agent has been decertified. But he also willingly went along with the scheme, not only funding it but citing it while lying to investigators.

QUOTE (MDWhiteSoxFan @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 07:13 PM) Did Melky do anything else besides test positive for PEDs and serve his time that I am not aware of? The whole "Spending $10k to create a fake supplement website so that he could say he bought them from the supplement website and it was a tainted supplement from that website and he was innocent because website" cover up is pretty rotten on top of it and that didn't get any extra punishment as far as I can tell.

QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 06:21 PM) Look, if you guys want to clutch your pearls over the signing of Melky Cabrera that's fine, but don't do the same dance over the reaction you get from others. Nobody is saying you cannot say you don't like the Cabrera signing, they're just saying the issue you're taking with it is pretty lame and extrapolating your displeasure with the signing into struggling to support the whole team is ridiculous. Exactly, because your side doesn't agree, it's "pretty lame" and worthy of having scorn heaped upon it.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 05:55 PM) How come Melky doesn't get a second chance? Why is using PEDs an unforgivable offense? He's had plenty of second chances already and will continue to get them, that doesn't mean I can't have a viscerally negative reaction to him being on the team I root for.

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 05:52 PM) I was just going to say Avi has to have a great year. I think you got the three most important right there. You know? with what we've added to the lineup and the rotation, there's room for this team to be competitive even if he struggles.

Those last 2 don't worry me that much. This team could easily get a very weak performance from Tyler Flowers, nothing but a September bullpen stint from Carlos Rodon, and still win the division.

QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 05:36 PM) I hate players who steal bases. At their core, they are nothing more than thieves. The level of seething, angry disrespect in this thread for anyone who has a negative reaction to signing this guy is really quite remarkable. We often don't even get this level for political discussions.

I think the biggest risk would be the innings. Rodon has never pitched more than 130 innings and those were mostly college level. By the time he's at 150 innings in the big leagues he'd be completely gassed. Down the stretch we'd be in the boat of skipping his starts a lot, like we saw in 2012 with Sale and Quintana when their arms were just too beat down the stretch. The other starters are potentially strong enough to make up for that but that's a pretty big risk. Do you have confidence that Chris Sale can handle 220 innings and still be ready to go in the playoffs? Maybe...but he's missed time with a sore arm enough for that to be a concern. It'd at least be "nice" if he got some extra rest during the year too...one of the things this team would really struggle to overcome is Sale missing a lot of time. And then beyond that...how much confidence do we have in someone like Beck being the 6th starter? Out of a 5 man rotation you do expect someone to hit the DL at some point. I'd have a lot more confidence in Rodon being the guy who comes up and takes that spot than I would with Beck as of now. If someone takes on Danks's salary without the Sox having to pay much of course you still do it because you're better off just figuring it out as you go...but the depth in the rotation with Rodon in the 6th spot is a real solid advantage.

QUOTE (soxfan49 @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 04:01 PM) Someone earlier in this thread said this signing makes the Sox lineup average, but I totally disagree. If Eaton can stay healthy and Garcia progresses, they have the potential to be very good. This ought to make the white sox move into the "well above average" range. Add in a solid bench, have guys mostly stay healthy & have Garcia develop some & there's a shot at being the top offense in the league.