Balta1701

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 22, 2014 -> 08:21 AM) An interesting side effect of this deal is the impact it has on our bench. Between LaRoche & Gillaspie, we're going to need two RH reserves that can platoon with them. One guy obviously has to be an IF, the other preferably an OF. That only leaves us with one other reserve for the IF/OF if you're assuming a four man bench. It will be interesting to see how those spots shake out, especially if they don't keep Tank. I've got a feeling that Marcus will see a lot of at bats in that role, swapping in for Gillaspie or LaRoche pretty often while Sanchez takes a good amount of time at 2b.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 11:34 PM) Clown indeed. Put me down for the opposite of all of this. LaRoche will outslug .430. As the most sought after outfielder in a very thin free agent class, Cabrera will get well overpaid in years and probably dollars. The notion that way overspending for one outfielder is the best way to improve a team with several holes is nonsensical. That may still be by the white sox.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 11:32 PM) Yeah, I'd say Headley gets double of what that poster suggested, somewhere around 3/$42M. I still expect Headley is closer to 5/$75.

ESPN says that Law's suspension is not about evolution but hasn't explained why he's been suspended, meanwhile Schilling has been tweeting about how awful protests in ferguson MO are, while Schilling is still an ESPN employee.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 10:46 PM) Those are low end numbers on both of those guys as well, which is why I said it's a pipe dream. That seems high for what most people have quoted for Melky.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 10:35 PM) THANK YOU! Maybe now all this "trade Q" crap will die. How's Chris Sale look in this sort of analysis, by the way? Chris is under contract for 1 less year than Quintana, but he's put up 5.1 and 5.3 fWAR the last 2 years. If you believe Sale will repeat his last year, then Quintana is more valuable than Sale, hands down, but the difference is that Sale missed 4 weeks last year. If Sale was healthy all year last year with no difference in performance, he's a >7 fWAR pitcher, but we haven't seen that from him yet. It seems more likely with him than Quintana but that's where health comes in. But really, a good rule of thumb is...if you say "God no" to any trade proposal involving sale, you should say the exact same thing about Quintana. Sale should outperform Jose but he seems a higher injury risk based on his record, so if you weigh them about the same for trade value, Sale's trade Value and Quintana's trade value should be close enough that they're exchangeable. So, would you trade Sale as the key piece in a deal involving Jay Bruce? Literally there's no deal I can put together with the Reds roster that works, not with Cueto that close to FA. I wouldn't trade Sale as the key piece for Votto, so I wouldn't trade Quintana as the key piece for Votto. Their total value to the franchise is just about that close. The only reason you'd trade either of them is to remove the injury risk, and from the perspective of this thread, if you're worried about injury risk, how confident are you about a guy who struggled with knee injuries last year? This is approaching silly. No one with a lick of sense would trade Sale for a deal with Bruce as the centerpiece, so it's equally silly to trade Quintana for a package around him, let alone Quintana+.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 10:29 PM) Wow... This is a pretty impressive post. Interesting way of looking at it all. It changes a bit if you go to $6 million per WAR, Trout wins by about $4 mil/year during the contract,but it's like "$178 million in excess value" versus "$144 million in excess value". The difference isn't zero but it's small compared to the numbers these guys are putting up. The basic point stands; if you would trade Mike trout with his current contract for a guy, you would trade Quintana for that guy. If you at least hesitate about it, then ok you trade Quintana for that guy. If you say no about Trout, then you can't trade Quintana for that guy unless you think Jose is about to blow his arm out. Jose is that valuable. He's a video game cheat code right now and should be treated that way.

So this is sort of crazy. Mike Trout is owed $144 million through 2020. If he puts up 8.5 fWAR the next few years, which is roughly what he's done the last few (higher than the last 2 but lower than his first 2) he will put up $260 million worth of value at $5 million/fWAR (probably an underestimate but an ok one). The difference between what he would be paid and what he would produce, his excess value, is $116 million. Jose Quintana is owed $46 million through 2020. He put up 5.3 fWAR last year. If Jose Quintana puts up that same fWAR through 2020, he would be worth $159 million. The excess value Quintana Baswould produce is $113 million. Basically, if you assume the injury/collapse risk is about equal...Right now, Jose Quintana with his contract included should have about the same value as Mike Trout. This is not sarcastic. The excess value Quintana should produce is comparable to the excess value Mike Trout should produce through 2020. So if you would not trade Mike Trout and his contract for some player right now, you should not trade Quintana for that same player right now. Maybe if it's close and the guy is a better fit fine, but assume no injuries and no improvement from either and wow...Quintana + his contract is disturbingly close in value to Mike Trout + his contract.

follow links NY Daily News Another Deadspin with the original

QUOTE (Benchwarmerjim @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 06:10 PM) Honestly, I thought the White Sox would sign him . Honestly I thought he'd get less than half that money.

QUOTE (robinventura23 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 09:43 PM) Maybe Justin Upton is an idea as well. Could make sense but I'm not trading something of value from this org. for a guy with only 1 year before FA.

I'm totally content with an email. It's >>>>>>>>> option D where I don't know. The level of disrespect I find in #D is incredible. I'm ok with being told no. Give me the dignity of telling me. Out of the places where I've interviewed, I would re-apply for the places that respectfully told me no. I will not re-apply to the place that left me with silence.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan99 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 05:01 PM) Despite being only 300 pages I don't think the Hobbit would have worked well as one movie. 3 movies was definitely overkill though. I think 3 movies would have worked for The Hobbit as done but it needed heavier editing to make each movie ~2 hours rather than >2.5+.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 09:31 PM) Kemp, Bruce and Me.Cabrera are all unrealistic at this point. Yeah, this removes the need for Bruce but the other 2 still make sense unless they are willing to throw the dice on VicieD'Oh for another year.

I'm totally ok with this and content.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 01:17 PM) the Dodgers got a great freaking TV deal. And the cable company is losing huge on it.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 01:12 PM) ok then let me ask you this, is it not reasonable to expect more from the Reds, or am i overvaluing Q?? if Jose Quintana were a free agent right now there's a good chance he'd get a contract that rivals Lester, my guess would be in the 7/$150 range. If he repeats his last season next year, then he would start being a guy you could legitimately talk about as a $200 million candidate if he could have hit FA right then. We've got him locked up for like $20 million. That's the level of value we need to get back to trade him - a guy who is an all star right now and is under team control for a long time.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 01:08 PM) after thinking of this long and hard, i am coming to a conclusion that the sox may need to do this trade. but my problem is, unlike talking about the Mets, Dodgers or even any other team who need to do a salary dump, the Reds really don't have to. I mean, they are not in a urgency mode to do it. am i reading this the right way?? The Reds would be stupid not to do a trade centered around Bruce and Quintana as the main parts.

QUOTE (Special K @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 09:47 AM) At that point, we would have to make a trade or hope to improve internally. You do have to factor Rodon in at some point, and if he starts out of the bullpen, the sox have already upgraded their pen this year with two solid lefties. Then really all you need to do is find starting pitcher to hopefully slot in the 3 role... and have Noesi as your 5 and really hope Danks has a strong year. But still, it's not a stellar rotation. No. No no. No. No No No No. No. No.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 09:25 AM) Q with his contract if he continues to put up 4 WAR seasons is almost irreplaceable. It would cost probably $10-15 million a year more just to hopefully replace his level, plus what you would have to pay Bruce. It makes zero sense. Bruce's best season wasn't as good WAR-wise than Q in 2014, and that was several years ago. I would imagine he can still hit, and his fielding probably took a hit because of injury, but man, Jose Quintana, if you really look at it, is one of the best starters in baseball right now and is ridiculously cheap. There are better ways to take advantage of financial flexibility than giving that away. Hahn as KW's assistant was responsible for signing Q as a minor league free agent. And for signing him to this couldn't be more team friendly extension. There is no chance he would piss that away unless maybe someone like Bryce Harper became available. On the free agent market right now Quintana would get a similar contract to where Lester is looking at, in the 7/$150 range or more. Your numbers are about 1/2 of what it would actually cost to replace him.

QUOTE (Special K @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 08:18 AM) otherwise we will keep losing with guys like Gillespie, Flowers, Tanks, etc. Gillespie had a fine year last year, and it's okay to have 1 or 2 guys like that on your roster, but, not 4 or 5. There is a big difference between guys like Flowers and Gillaspie and guys like Viciedo right now. Flowers and Gillaspie weren't terrible. You can win with a roster full of guys like Flowers and Gillaspie as long as you don't have terrible players alongside them. If you're going to have terrible players like Viciedo throughout your roster, you need to balance them out with extra all stars, which is tougher and a lot more expensive.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 11:55 PM) I think the Sox blew it not getting involved with Billy Butler. He's cheap in today's standards and a genius like Beane was willing to go three years. He'd have been potentially dandy in the hitter-friendly Cell. I'm not saying Billy is a god, but it's the Sox type of signing. Taking a chance on a guy who had a bad year. He's only 28. He could have possibly gone on a nice six-year run on the South Side. He finally elevates a bit and we might have had a good DH. Also would have been nice to have him in 19 games a year vs. KC. Now I could be wrong if Billy gets fat and continues to not elevate, but I think if the Sox are gonna continue to be a small market team like they have been payroll wise, this signing made a lot of sense. Go after the 8-10 million buck a year guys. I'd say this is a fail by Hahn. Cause he's not going to get any of the mega contract type guys. p.s. I'm in favor of acquiring Torii Hunter now. Yes he's old, but same reasoning as Butler. Figure you can get him 6-10 million a year for two years or one year and an option year. That is a lot of money for Billy Butler. That is a helluva lot of money for Torii Hunter.

There's one ranked team that made a mistake coming to Assembly.

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 09:21 PM) Might take Q + Hilariously silly.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 08:34 PM) Well, they would be buying in for TWO years of Ramirez. I couldn't imagine any team would be absolutely sure that they'd even want to keep Alexei in 2017. It's completely a "win now" move. They'd also be able to offer him a QO if healthy right?