Balta1701

QUOTE (Felix @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 06:37 PM) The Timberwolves are not trading Kevin Love. And there is nothing he can do to force them to, no matter how unhappy he is. If he was that unhappy, he shouldn't have signed the extension.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 03:59 PM) As of today, I don't think the bullpen is very good at all for the Sox. I would like to see Hahn add a few veteran arms to the bullpen in case Jones and/or Reed have a sophomore slump. If nothing else, we've got enough young arms out there that I think it's worth sinking or swimming based on what we have, at least early in the year. You can always trade for an overpaid veteran arm mid-season if you need one. Only way we're going to see if these guys can develop into anything is to try to develop them into something.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 06:26 PM) Explain Beckham's 23 OPS+ of 86. Never happened. He put up a 106 OPS+ in his first year as a 22 year old. Based on the standard applied here, what you do in your first stint defines your entire career. Beckham is a borderline all star.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 11:24 AM) It was a most unique situation back in the 80's, as compared to now...but taken by themselves, every situation is unique and cannot effectively be compared. I recall Greenspan doing something similar in the late 90's to curb the rate of growth due to the .com explosion. He was raising interest rates at a .25 or .50 clip every few months...the tipping point came fast because the bust occurred seemingly overnight, meanwhile this guy had interest rates at 7%+ because he didn't understand the .com boom/bust. At least, IMO, he didn't. Yes, there was a rise in interest rates prior to the bursting of the 2000 and 2007 bubbles...but it was a much smaller comparative rise, and the "Slowdown" in those cases was vastly accelerated by the bursting of bubbles that the Fed had allowed to inflate/directly inflated. If he had raised interest rates more slowly...do you really think that it would have led to a soft landing on the bubble? I can't think of an example when that happens. The bubble was going to become a major inflation push in both cases once it existed, effectively forcing the fed to act, and deflating a financial bubble without puncturing it seems about as difficult as...deflating an actual bubble without puncturing it. The real thing to do is actually have a regulatory system that prevents those speculative bubbles. If you allow them to exist, then this boom and bust is the result. That's exactly how things operated in the days before the Great Depression produced meaningful financial regulation, and we've now seen repeatedly, globally, that Central Banks can be rapidly rendered powerless by the scale of these bursting bubbles. ANd on the other point; What we can do is come up with models that allow for the comparison of a variety of economic circumstances, and really, I can fit both of those situations with the same model if it includes both monetary policy and fiscal policy. I think that's exactly what I'm basing my response on.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 03:17 PM) As a whole, Bernanke has done a pretty good job. It was frustrating since so much of his academia was committed to dealing with a crisis very much like the US (his writing on Japan), and then not following the course suggestions he set in his paper. That said, we are such better hands than so many companies. I'm only jealous of Israels central bank, Swedens and Australias. Good work Chicago Fed Chief Charlie Evans as well. Bernanke should have put this statement out 3.5 years ago.

QUOTE (IowanSoxFan @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 10:59 AM) What's wrong with Selig besides that All-Star game awhile back and maybe the disaster in Miami? Power Rankings: 1. Selig 2. Goodell 3. Stern 4. Bettman 1994. Tetrahydrogestrinone taking the most hallowed record in sports.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 11:10 AM) I'm not saying they did things right...but when recessions hit, governments are supposed to flood money. In general, yes, that's exactly what they should do, because a recession typically occurs because the Federal Reserve pushed things too far in the "Slowdown" direction and the government can spend money more quickly than the Federal Reserve can restart things, plus the government can cushion the blow for people through unemployment benefits and healthcare coverage in this country. And yes, we ought to be doing more of all of that now. That recession is just a little different though, because the inflation rate had gotten so out of control that the fed felt the need to crank up the interest rates beyond the point of "accidentally going to far" and forced a large recession to get that inflation rate under control. The government was going to expand spending to cover unemployment benefits and medicaid, and that's still a good thing, but it was a force pushing against what the Fed was doing in that case, so at the very least there's a complicated cost/benefit calculation involved in offering benefits but fighting inflation.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 11:00 AM) You should also get a lot of that back. I counted my refund in the numbers I quoted you. I pay about 12% if you count the payroll tax, and 17% if you count the fact that my employer is also chipping in a large chunk of payroll tax funds that I never see. If you count that hidden 2nd half, the payroll tax is by far the largest portion of the tax I pay. My income tax rate is ~5-6^, but that's no where near relevant to the total amount I'm paying to the federal government. In this country, the middle class pays the payroll tax, the upper incomes pay the income tax (to first order). So, if you can do things like cut social security benefits or raise social security taxes, and those wind up generating a budget surplus, which you use to cut income taxes, you've effectively conducted a long term transfer of money from the middle class to the upper class. This is effectively what happened with the Social Security reform in the 1980's, which generated a large surplus of social security tax receipts, which was then treated as a full government surplus and used to fund upper income tax cuts.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 10:55 AM) Deficits were supposed to explode under Reagan, when he came into office, he had an unemployment rate almost double what Obama has, with interest rates of 13-17%. You're supposed to spend such times...you have to spend in such times. Which is why I disagree with conservatives that say we need to stop spending now. It shows they don't understand economics. Once again, the problem is that when times get good, we tend to not stop that spending. That's where we go wrong. Actually, if your unemployment rate is high because you've raised interest rates to fight inflation...then deficit spending on the part of the government actually pushes the wrong way. Deficit spending at that point is inflationary, so it's pushing counter the move by the central bank to try to fight inflation and making their work harder.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 10:52 AM) If you start counting things like that, rich people also get to count it. I'm counting my tax return numbers. My investments, my income, my dividends, my interest...that equates to an effective tax rate of 7% for me. If I start calculating how much I spend that year on sales tax, payroll tax, etc...I'm sure it's closer to 50% than it is to 20%. But by that same token, rich people can also do that and it'd show they pay just as much as a %. Great. Rich people can happily count the payroll tax as part of their total tax rate. Since the payroll tax only hits the first $110k or so of a person's income, it's enormously regressive, and it winds up being I'm slightly below middle income, and I'm paying around 12% including the portion of the payroll tax that I pay myself. If I factor in the fact that my employer is also paying a chunk of payroll tax on my account, and that's a legit chunk of money that could come to me otherwise, then i'm close to a 16-17% rate.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 10:40 AM) Ehh, no, we don't. My actual effective tax rate last year was 7%. If you're paying 15-20%...you're doing it wrong. Either that, or you are a single person with no assets, no family, no house, etc...which is possible. Even rich single people in that situation would pay close to their actual tax rate. Are you counting your payroll tax?

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 10:42 AM) But I don't think there's anything to support your claim that historically, they were any different. At least in any of our lifetimes and certainly longer ago than 15-20 years. You have to go back to pre-Reagan at the earliest to find Republicans actually interested in a balanced budget. He can tell me that I'm wrong, but I read his statement to be talking about the pre-1980 Republican party, and genuinely there was probably a lot more actual interest in deficit reduction even when it was a mistake amongst that group.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 10:32 AM) Let's keep in mind that these were smoke and mirror tax rates anyway. Nobody paid 70% in the 1970's. Just like corporations don't pay 30% now, despite their tax rate being 30%. And the top tier don't pay 35% despite their tax rate being 35%...but the middle classes pay pretty close to their 15-20% number.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 10:21 AM) Are you saying that the Republican party has moved to the left? Yes, that's why they're in favor of returning the top tier tax rate to the 1970's level of 70%, or at the very least hte 1980's level of 50%.

QUOTE (Jake @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 10:09 AM) In Memphis, cold calls are likely to rear some very interesting stories I've spent many weeks doing cold-calls to alums and gotten some interesting stories involving the Manhattan and Apollo projects, but that was for a job, not a class.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 09:35 AM) I haven't seen the one that is out now, but I've seen all the rest... and that is one of the few things I' dsay they have definitely kept. Did that suddenly vanish in the new one? There's no car chase on an ice palace against a giant space laser if that's what he's after.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 09:14 AM) Reed was f'ing terrible last year. I haven't done the exact math, but I'm 99% sure if you take out Reed's numbers, the bullpen had an ERA below 3. Taking Reed out drops the bullpen's ERA from 3.75 to 3.64.

QUOTE (buckweaver @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 09:05 AM) With the report the Yankees have resigned Ichiro (MLBTraderumors), they now have 3 LH outfielders in Ichiro, Gardiner and Granderson. If we're "signing up," for a strategy...I'd like to see Granderson and some salary relief for De Aza. To me, Granderson is a complete player. He's hit for average and power and is a very good center fielder. Last season's average was down because he was a middle-of-the-order guy. Put him in CF flanked by Rios and Viciedo and bat him first. All this, and he's a stellar human being, too...and from Chicago. Several years ago, the winter after he had his September (maybe a little more) cup of coffee with the Tigers, he was a coach at a baseball camp for kids in Libertyville. He took time for each kid, smiled, signed autographs and answered everyone's questions. He came across as totally genuine. I'd love for him to have some very good years with the White Sox. If the Yankees problem is that their OF is too LH heavy...doesn't getting De Aza...not help?

QUOTE (knightni @ Dec 11, 2012 -> 10:28 PM) It was a very flat story; too bare-bones to be a James Bond movie. The Bourne movies have been better. That's actually the same description I would have given to the latest Bourne movie starring Hawkeye.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 12:51 AM) Turned in a project that I was dreading. Had to COLD CALL a RANDOM PERSON out of the MUNCIE PHONE BOOK, and go TO THEIR HOUSE and try and find a story to shoot on them. Ended up taking the way most students probably go w/ this project and used a person that was referred to me by a friend. Just can't wait to be through with this class and HOPEFULLY pass it if he curves our grade a s*** ton. I currently sit at a 47% in the class. LOL. And for journalism classes, we need a 73% or higher to pass. WTF kind of class makes you do cold-calling?

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 06:54 AM) I just don't get the hate Viciedo gets on this board. 90% of it is from one guy.

QUOTE (bulokis @ Dec 12, 2012 -> 01:36 AM) When is our big move coming? In a year or two when the minors have developed more and the big contracts on the big league club have ended.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 11, 2012 -> 08:27 PM) If he gets 12 million a year, wow, he's done a heckuva job negotiating. I remember those instances the ball skipped off his shins or by him. I don't think it happened all that much, though. Not at all like the end of Fisk's career when he couldn't see the ball at all and catch it. The season he had last year could have earned him $12 mil next year if it weren't for his age and reputation.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 11, 2012 -> 06:42 PM) Appreciation? For what exactly? The White Sox being in the playoff hunt for June, July, and August.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 11, 2012 -> 06:36 PM) The thing about Rios is that he isn't really an albatross at this point. He has something like 3/36 left on his contract, right? If he was a free agent this offseason, at age 31, he would do substantially better than that, I would think. 2/$25 guaranteed with a $13.5 option/$1 buyout. The only way he became an albatross was by having 2 incredibly bad years out of 3. Last year was something of a recovery. If he tries to put together another of the 20 worst seasons in MLB history again next year, then he can resume being an albatross.