Balta1701

When 2 guys play the same position, have nearly the same performance over the last 2 years, and one of them is traded for basically salary relief, I see no reason why people can't discuss whether this is a reasonable comp. Yes, Robert is younger and I'll buy that he has a higher ceiling. He also has an extra year of affordable control. These things push his value up. BUT - if a team can fill an OF spot by taking on $20 million and trading a 30 million year old reliever as literally the only return, they will not part with much in the way of prospect value. Other teams will learn from that - and this will stretch into the season. If teams think they can fill roles without paying prospects, they will consistently do so - that's how the starting pitching market shaped up last offseason, and that is a clear statement about this OF market. For $7 million more this season (plus tax bill) the Yankees got a guy who has matched Robert's performance the last 2 years, who is also a lefty and thus fits their lineup, in exchange for a 30 year old reliever. If that's market price, will Luis Robert ever return the kind of trade that y'all want? The only situation that seems to fit that setup is if he's back onto his 7 WAR player pace and fully healthy at the trade deadline, and even then it's iffy - teams will clearly look for other options if available, and teams will still hesitate because of his injury history.

Chris Getz signed Clevinger for $3 million as a free agent and got -0.1 fWAR out of him. How exactly is that a good signing?

So $3 million for -0.1 fWAR is surplus value? With no ability to trade him and thus not even a reliever coming back for him? Explain to me how this works I'm confused.

No I will not and I have no interest in this. It's a baseball discussion, I'm discussing baseball. Some interesting points are made here, including: Bellinger's performance is way closer to Robert's than I thought Bellinger's return was really bad Robert's defense is still strong so even without his offensive performance in 2024 he wasn't awful, but that was relying entirely on defense Some people still believe that "protection in a lineup" is a key factor in players' performance The prospects on the Mets are being looked down upon more than I would have thought for 1 year of performance. This is the point of discussion. My level of sarcasm here has been "Yeah but Robert gets hurt even in the seasons people are pointing to." What exactly offends you so much about the idea that people have different levels of hope for Robert than you do?

First of all, 2.1 fWAR. Secondly, he was -0.1 fWAR when they boldly resigned him when for some reason no one in the league would trade for him the previous year and for some reason no one would sign him at all despite him putting up a 2.2 fWAR season the previous year.

Actual answer: yes I think this is likely. His approach at the plate is terrible and he has been uncoachable for years. Now that the injuries are piling up, that tiny bit of decreased athleticism would be enough to basically kill his performance unless he can take some coaching. Sarcastic answer: the big time player who averaged 103.667 games per year across those seasons (ignoring 20 which would only make this lower).?

A player who regressed tremendously and who arguably was not worth his salary? Gosh I’m not sure what this has to do with Luis Robert.

Robert was on pace for a 6 WAR ceiling, but of course, he got hurt.

He has thrown 125 inning with an ERA over 5 the last 4 years combined.

Has anyone noted that Cody Bellinger produced more fWAR than Robert over the past 2 years? Narrow win for Robert in 23, bigger margin for Bellinger in 24.

The White Sox's pythagorean record last year based on runs scored/allowed was 48-114. They were 7 games worse than that and underplayed their projected record by the biggest amount in baseball.

Removing Luis Robert doesn't remove too many wins.

Not even close. I said they wouldn't get good value for him in the market in 2023 because he had a down year and pitching wasn't returning a good value due to a saturated market, the right move was to hold him to the trade deadline and let him have a better first half. And yeah, I am pretty down on the return. They should have held him to the trade deadline. He was healthy, the market was bad last offseason, they spent the entire offseason leaking that they'd get a great offer and took a meh deal that hopefully gets them a couple relievers.

Nicky Lopez was being paid $5 million and was clearly there for leadership. That is clearly not the case with someone like Acuna. That comparison is bizarre. You could say you don't need another Eloy and then tell me why you think that's Acuna's future. Or Colas, whatever. At least make the comparison fundamentally similar.

You're right, but losing Robert for nothing also does nothing.

The counter here is health. Dylan Cease made more starts than any other pitcher in baseball from 2021-2023. Luis Robert has had a moderate to major injury of some sort each of the last 4 years.

True but "Worth his contract" is a guy who doesn't return you much in a trade. "Worth a lot more than you contract" is worth a lot in a trade.

But at the same time, the guy with that longer track record of success has: 1. An extremely long injury history. 2. A salary 20x higher. 3. A maximum of 3 years of control.. I agree with you I don't care about 40 PAs of big league time. If you could get a couple of guys who added up to 10 years of control, one of whom is like Colson Montgomery in that they were extremely well regarded a year ago but who had rough 2024s, that's a pretty good starting point for me on paper. Having those two guys would be a lot better than Robert having his option turned down after paying him $15 million this year and having him get hurt.

Aren't you looking at Acuna and saying he's a worthless asset based on his 2024 but not doing the same thing for Robert?

So he’s post hype in the same sense as Colson Montgomery?

He would technically be arbitration eligible but he's fringy enough that it won't matter. He's already been bought for cash considerations once, if he stays with the team the whole year he's probably a non-tender guy.

Neither funny nor appropriate.

https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-arenado-blocks-trade-cardinals-astros Nolan Arenado apparently blocked a trade proposal to the Astros with an NTC.

The problem remains - if max effort for as long as your body can take it gives you an ERA of 3, and going slightly longer but at lower effort leaves you with an ERA of 4.5, one of these is a guy who will make 10s of millions of dollars and one of these guys will barely stay in the big leagues. As much as we want to complain about pitchers doing this...the hitters have gotten smarter and better on most teams in the league too. The pitchers have been ahead of them a little bit by pushing their bodies to the breaking point, but if they let up, the hitters make them pay. The league naturally selects for guys who are willing to throw everything they have into being effective on the mound.