Balta1701

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 02:40 PM) I'm officially tired of the dire predictions. ST hasn't even started. Saw a round table on MLB network and to a man they see the sox finishing dead last. Detroit commentators are talking about winning the division by 20 games. GMAFB. These outcomes aren't unreasonable to me. Both are low probability, but plausible.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 02:33 PM) It is also worth pointing out again that the comparison between banks and auto is a complete fail, as was explained in detail, and ignored as usual. They were both relying on their ability to raise funds privately to roll over debt. In neither case could they do so, including Ford, without huge government actions. If there is a difference, it's that the automakers had smaller debts and more time to work with as a consequence, which is why the banks received such enormous guarantees.

QUOTE (daa84 @ Feb 18, 2012 -> 01:26 PM) quite obviously not an accident.....someone is going to be fired for that im sure Correct.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 01:51 PM) I'm with Marty. I started to see some major red flags with Santos. First, his slider, while dominant isn't all that repeatable and he doesn't consistently command it well. When it's flat, most of us can hit it. Also, he has a good fastball, but doesn't really believe in it. During pressure situations, he's slider, slider, slider. Lastly, his arm strength scares me. Will he ever develop enough to be a great closer? This is how the catchers were calling the game though. And Santos's problem wasn't really that his slider was flat, it was that people would be able to lay off of it if he couldn't get ahead of people beforehand. AJ loved the setup with Sergio throwing the fastball to get ahead of hitters and then only use the slider as an out pitch. When Flowers took over some games, we saw Flowers use the Slider much more heavily and stop relying on the fastball to get ahead. In fact, especially in the first half of the season, Sergio's slider was just nails...his control on it was almost spectacular. That pretty much covered the whole season too, he was vastly better than the rest of the league at getting the slider down in the zone and ridiculous at getting people to swing and miss at it.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 01:26 PM) It comes down to Williams not valuing the Red Sox system as much as the Red Sox do. I have no problem with how the Santos trade was executed. That doesn't matter. What you do then is you put the call in to the Red Sox, then you call the Blue Jays back and say "I have this offer from the Red Sox, will you give us Molina plus this other 19 year old" so that you stock up more. Put the pressure on Toronto to walk away, then call them back and give them the last offer. Basic game theory 101.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 12:46 PM) Santos was a middle-of-the-pack closer last year. It's possible he improves, but at 28 and relying as much as he does on his slider, I don't think he'll have much more than a couple of years as an upper-tier closer. I think Williams got the best deal possible for him. The problem is that afterwards, Boston came out and said that they'd have bid up the price on Santos if they'd known he was available. KW took a guy that he wanted and didn't push as hard as he could have, maybe out of fear that he'd lose him. Basically, Molina needs to dominate to prove him right, because better deals would have been out there had he worked harder.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 12:31 PM) I would bet anything Toronto would have given KW Molina even if that extension was never in place. You're probably right...but that's more an expression of the fact that Kenny should have gotten more for Serg in that trade.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 12:07 PM) Anyone know why the White Sox are the last team to report to spring traing and why their first full workout is 5 days after the first teams workout. This is almost one week less of spring training than some teams are getting. For a team that has started as slowly as they have maybe a late start is not the best thing. The "First teams" started last week because they're heading to Japan a week before the US-based opening day. I don't know about other teams.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 12:08 PM) You guys defend Guillen against just about all criticism.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 10:50 AM) Ford had a credit line that didn't get canceled. You have an automotive company getting money during the crisis. If things were as bad as being stated, they sure wouldn't have kept it under the guise that repayment would have come at some later date if they would have collapsed. If things were that bad, that wouldn't have been good enough, because the bank could very well have collapsed in terms of capital ratios by the time they were to have received those loan repayments from the government. Because, as I just pointed out while being ignored, they had secured a $9 billion credit line from the government, and with their stronger position, having that loan was enough to enable them to secure private financing, since if the losses really were worse, the government would take the loss. It was effectively a loan guarantee, and when faced with the option of using that as a loan guarantee or taking the Federal Government bailout, they chose the Federal loan guarantee (which, btw, you said was such a great deal that anyone would be nuts to refuse it.) This is the exact same thing the federal reserve did with BofA and Citigroup. They guaranteed hundreds of billions of dollars of their loans in Nov. 2008, and thus they were able to raise private capital that they otherwise wouldn't have.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 11:02 AM) Just give up, because they don't want to understand how a market really works. They just don't. It's easier to say that the government had to step in to defend the point that the government now has to step in on everything because it's the only mechanism that works to save the world of all of the fallacies of an evil capital market. It was a payoff, everyone knows it except those who want to scream there was no money. And yes, George W. Bush did it. And it was wrong. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 11:33 AM) Except for MF Global, because Obama wanted them to fail. Frankly, Bullsh*t. You guys just don't want to admit that the policies you guys favor completely blew up everything, and that the government stepping in worked.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 01:15 AM) Did you puke a little at the tv? I think I did. You shouldn't be getting those yet. I don't even know if Texas gets to have a primary at this point.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 12:02 PM) It's funny that Greg gets so much criticism for defending Guillen when SS2K5 and Balta do the same for Williams with nary a word of objection. Because we don't defend KW, but we also admit he wasn't the only part of the problem.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 19, 2012 -> 10:40 AM) Because it was incredibly team friendly. And that extension actually made him more tradeable.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 18, 2012 -> 11:25 PM) The more interesting question is why did it decrease so much? Simply because of the lost ticket sales from the Dodgers? I'd imagine it's in part because the "new stadium effect" has gone and there was a general economic downturn going on for the last several years.

Just got my first Rmoney superpac ad!

Yes, that's right, It's Saturday night, and I'm sitting here watching Transformers. The 1986 movie. It's on DirecTV channel 294.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 18, 2012 -> 09:18 PM) Hypothetical question for all you service time experts: Someone signs Soler for 4 years, $28 million. He spends 2013-2015 in the minors, then spends the whole 2016 in the majors. Does his arbitration/service clock work the same way as drafted players, even though he was a free agent? According to the service time rules, he would be ineligible for arbitration with only one year of service time. Would the team be able to offer him a typical pre-arb contract like 500-700k? Or since he made $7 million/year earlier, do they need to pay him a similar salary? It depends on the contract. It's plausible that a team could offer him an "out clause" after x number of years. This is what happened with Contreras and Cespedes. I don't know if a team could write the contract saying that he was out after "4 years of MLB service time", I haven't seen that one before, but I'd imagine it's possible. So, a team could definitely offer him a contract where he's guaranteed to be a free agent in 2016, or a team could probably offer him a contract with some other out clause. With a guy as young and raw as him, it's hard to imagine a team would want to offer him an out clause. If he was not offered an out clause, then effectively, the $28 million would be a signing bonus. If he spent 3 years in the minors, then he'd still be under contract for 1 year. Then, his contract could be simply "renewed" for 2 more years prior to him becoming arbitration eligible (not sure of the exact amount, but we'll see what it is when Viciedo has it happen to him). At that point, he'd then have 3-ish arbitration years before Free Agency. This path is the Alexei/Viciedo path.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 18, 2012 -> 09:13 PM) So if Dayan doesn't perform adequately, we're going to have to waste a roster spot on DeAza or Fukudome again as a back-up option to Viciedo? Not quite sure I understand your last sentence. Or you mean you don't care as much about the playing time for DeAza/Fukudome/Lillibridge, that the the sole outfield development focus should on playing Viciedo everyday no matter what happens to see what we actually have in him going forward? Last sentence translation: If Viciedo struggles in the bigs, I'd rather have him get 600 PA's to have a chance to work through those struggles than sit on the bench. If you're going to put him on the bench for more than a few days, then send him to AAA and let him resume raking. There is no way that I'm going to be happy if he gets more "Rest" than others on the roster. If he's hitting .220, then either keep running him out there or send him to Charlotte. Do not make Fukudome a starter in his place, or even a platoon player. If De Aza struggles in the bigs, I'd rather have him get 600 PA's to have a chance to work through those struggles, so that we can see if he's a legit option for 2013. He might turn it on after a couple months of struggling. Put him out there until we've seen enough to decide if he's a 2013 starter. If he goes to the bench for Fukudome, then that ought to be it for him. If Rios struggles again, I don't care what happens to him. You can bench him for Fukudome and I promise not to be mad.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 18, 2012 -> 07:50 PM) Your outrage at Dave Wilder should be 100x that of your outrage at Guillen for the state of White Sox player development. Why? Even franchises doing spectacularly seem like they pull off what, 1 player who comes up the full way through the system from a central american country every few years? OTOH, The Sox philosophy of slamming guys up to the major leagues and then putting them on the bench for 1/3 of the season has happened over and over and over. Edit: Oh, and I believe Wilder went to prison for his part.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 18, 2012 -> 07:28 PM) How is 450 at-bats considered being on the bench? Viciedo has shown he can crush LHP at the major league level, but he's got a sub .600 career OPS against RHP. I know that's based off a small sample size, but it shows he's going to need to make some adjustments. Let him play against all lefties and the righties he matches up well against, make the necessary adjustments, and build some success. If he proves himself, then he can continue to get more and more at-bats. If Viciedo, Fukudome, Rios, and De Aza are all playing well, then figuring out how to divide playing time is a good problem to have. I'm not too worried about that though, as at least one of them is likely to suck and that player's at-bats will likely be reduced. First, note that I said plate appearances not at bats. Secondly, if he's getting 450 plate appearances...that's almost exactly what Brent Morel got last year (435). And Morel himself came out and said that being put on the bench so regularly screwed with his mind and wound up making him swing tentatively for the better part of the season. If Viciedo isn't hitting 9th, then that means he's on the bench more than Morel last year. That means he's getting benched about 1 out of every 4 games. I'd rather have him sit at Charlotte for another year than play around with him like that. Not only have we already seen doing that hurt player develoment, but we're also wasting anotehr year of service time on him but having him spend 1/4 of the year on the bench. If Viciedo, Fukudome, Rios, and De Aza are playing well, Fukudome will both be the weak link and will be the guy who we won't mind sending to the bench more. Play the guys we're stuck with. If all of them are playing well, then Fukudome will be putting up the same numbers as De Aza, except De Aza will be better defensively and on the basepaths. If anyone not named Rios is playing poorly...then I'd rather either give him the time to develop (Dayan) or see if he can pull it together before we waste a roster spot on him the next year (De Aza).

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 18, 2012 -> 07:38 PM) . . . Or the farm system being in disarray in part because the GM's buddy was purposely signing prospects who had no chance at becoming major league players in order to embezzle money. What does this have to do with the topic at hand other than "I want to rip on Kenny Williams"? This has nothing to do with rushing players.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 18, 2012 -> 07:30 PM) This is scout speak, something that might be true, but is far from a certainty. I didn't say it was a certainty for every player. But it is absolutely true on average. You push every player upwards too quickly, and on average they are going to take more time to develop at the bigs. You leave every player stuck at AAA too long, they get a little bit annoyed, your big league team gets hurt, but then they wind up doing what every big name the Rays bring up seems to do.

QUOTE (daa84 @ Feb 18, 2012 -> 06:17 PM) exactly, which is why hes not wrong for saying they were rushed, and you aren't wrong for saying they weren't. Its impossible to ever tell what would have happened if a player had been pushed through a system quicker, or slower......so its just a differing opinion. But there is one thing you can say...if you don't give guys enough time in the minors...it might not hurt their careers overall...but the biggest impact will be that it weakens them in their first year or two while they develop in the bigs. That might, of course, be entirely tolerable if you've got a team that you're trying to bring up together or you're basically ruling out competing for a year (the Sox in 07 or right now), or if you have a loaded team elsewhere...but it's going to hurt you if you're trying to bring guys up quick, put them in the lineup, and then need key contributions from them. And you absolutely cannot put yourself in a position of needing key contributions from a position and then benching the person you need to develop long term because they're not performing (or because the manager has confusing grudges/plays favorites)...which is exactly what the Sox have been doing. Repeatedly.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 18, 2012 -> 05:45 PM) Who have they rushed? Sale, Stewart, Beckham, Morel to some extent, Reed, Hudson. You continue to insist that they need to rush Molina when he ought to be at least 1.5 years away from his big league debut if everything goes well.