Balta1701

QUOTE(southsideirish71 @ Jun 23, 2005 -> 02:05 PM) Get Randa, release Timo and use Cruddy to split time spelling Randa and Konerko at 1st. Here's the deal...any time you have anyone take Timo's roster spot, things immediately look a lot better. But the fact is...it seems like Ozzie or KW don't want Timo to go - that's why they kept talking about Harris leaving when Gload comes back. I think we're just as good with Crede at 3rd and Gload taking Timo's spot as we are with Crede and Randa both. If Gload ever heals, of course. If he doesn't, then we need another backup 1b, and I'll concede that point.

QUOTE(3E8 @ Jun 23, 2005 -> 02:21 PM) Are these years flip-flopped? This is what happens when you copy & paste from Excel. Fixed!

I believe TBS also shows Family Guy reruns, which raises them up a level in my book.

Well, we're now 71 games into the 2005 season, the season that was supposed to bring a new style of baseball to the South Side, and a season that has certainly been a fun one to watch. Now that we're nearly half way into the season, and since today's an off day, I think it's as good a day as any to take a look at how this team actually has changed from last year's team in the most important categories around; how many runs we put on the board compared to the amount of runs the other team puts up. For this analysis, I used results from ESPN.com for my 2005 results and Baseball Almanac.com for my 2004 results. My work was as follows: I entered the final score for each game over the last 2 years into Excel and performed some rudimentary statistical analyses on the scores to see if any obvious trends appeared. And, not to my surprise, I found several. First, let's look at the average amount of runs scored: 2004: 5.339506173 2005: 4.845070423 Ok, so for starters we're down about a half a run per game. That's not surprising to me at all, considering Lee is in Milwaukee, Frank's played like 10 games, and Ordonez played half a season last year. But let's look past total runs scored for a minute, and look at 2 other numbers: Median runs scored: 2004: 4.5 2005: 5 Standard Deviation of Runs Scored: 2004: 3.721956976 2005: 2.707913732 A-Ha! Here I present to you what I feel the key stats are this year for our offense. If you look at the median runs scored, in 2004 it is right between 4 and 5, meaning 1/2 of our games we scored 5 runs or more, and 1/2 we scored less. In 2005 on the other hand, we're scoring 5 runs or more a fair amount more often, and we're scoring 4 runs or less in fewer games. This is good; if you imagine our pitchers averaging 5 runs allowed per game like they did last year, the more games we score over 5 the more we're going to win. The second stat is the real key to this offense; this is the "Speed doesn't go into slumps" stat, this is the Ozzieball stat. Last year, we scored 5.3 plus or minus 3.7 runs per game, on average...with a few games falling outside those bounds. This year, we're scoring 4.8 runs a game, plus or minus 2.7. We've decreased our standard deviation by a full run. This means that yes, we're scoring less 15 run games, but it also means we're having less 0 and 1 run games. The numbers are clustering much more closely around 4, 5, and 6 runs per game; numbers that give us a good shot to win the game. Looking at these numbers...it is clear to me that Ozzieball is actually working; we're scoring enough runs to win more often, even though we're not scoring as many total runs as we were last year. The variation in our runs scored has dropped, and we're scoring 5 runs or so a lot more often than last year's ballclub. 1 last item I noticed...and I can't figure this one out at all. For some reason, the White Sox in both 2004 and 2005 just do not like to score 3 runs. In 2005 we have scored 3 runs exactly 4 times, while we've scored 2 or 4 runs 23 times between them. The same trend happened in 2004: we scored 2 runs 24 times, 4 runs 24 times, but 3 runs 12 times. It's a really wierd pattern in a histogram, and I have no idea why it's happening. I also looked at our opponents scores, and they are much closer to a bell curve, while the Sox scores have these 2 peaks with a large dip at 3 runs per game. So, next time the Sox score 3 runs in a game...act surprised. It really is a rare occurence.

Actually, I would say that Phoenix might even have a chance at a championship without prowess at the defensive end, if they can accomplish 2 things. 1. They need to own the defensive boards. This is not an option. Those rebounds will lead to fast breaks, and giving up offensive boards will destroy the few defensive stops they get. 2. They need to be very close to the top of the league in steals; same reasons as above. Fast breaks and defensive stops. If they can do those things well, they will keep people from scoring more than 100-110 against them, and they will actually be able to outscore everyone else. The biggest problem I saw with the Suns in the Spurs series was rebounding. The Spurs owned the boards, which prevented a lot of the Suns fast breaks and gave the Spurs a lot of 2nd chance points.

Aside from sports, the channel I most commonly watch is Fox...Simpsons Reruns, new simpsons, new Family Guy, new American Dad, and occasional 24. Next to that...carried almost entirely by 1 show, is Comedy Central...thanks to the Daily Show. And since Stephen Colbert (aka Ted Hitler) is getting his own show on that network...there's a good shot that my viewership will increase.

Fresh off the presses, we have another one...

QUOTE(hammerhead johnson @ Jun 23, 2005 -> 11:50 AM) Was that Jerry's master plan? I'm pretty sure that was actually his master plan when he drafted them...he pointed at San Antonio as an example of what he was trying to do. Let me put it this way...Curry is not a rebounder, and Chandler is not a scorer. Not yet anyway. But if you have both of those guys on the floor, they compliment each other, and they'll make each other better at what they do. And I still think that both will only get better with time. Although...those damn guaranteed contracts still scare the hell out of me.

Just out of curiosity...anyone care to wager a guess about how long it takes there to be a thread here about how Detroit is sneaking up on everyone and they're our next big threat?

QUOTE(SoxFan101 @ Jun 23, 2005 -> 10:55 AM) I wouldnt say thats neccesarily true... The era will go up but 1 hitter isnt going to increase it by a whole run... most teams DH's arent even that great... you have Ortiz, Thomas, and Hafner... other than that its mostly avg. players. It's not just that. It's the pitcher's spot being a nearly-automatic out. When a pitcher comes up in the batting order, it's a dead spot. It's a bunt if there's runners on, which hurts the chances at a big inning. It makes sure that you have an out at any point in your inning. It also robs you of guys off of your bench because you need to PH for the pitcher's spot. It also makes you throw less pitches. What's the ideal thing for a pitcher to do in the NL in a lineup? Start off the inning with the pitcher - because then you get the easy out, and then you're facing the leadoff man with already 1 out, and it's much harder for the other team to start a rally. One of the guys at ESPN did the numbers on this a few months ago...I can't find the actual link, but his number was that on average, almost every pitcher who goes from the NL to the AL sees his ERA increase by over .9 runs, and the exact opposite is found when they move the other way.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Jun 23, 2005 -> 10:51 AM) I am sure he is just misunderstood, or didn't really *mean* what he said. It was probably just a poor choice of words. Did I hit all of the Durbin excuses yet? No, you need a week of media posturing making the Republicans look bad and then an apology filled with tears before you're going to qualify.

This is great news. If this kid can play...then maybe we can finally start trying to hit the San Antonio Twin Towers style ball that Krause envisioned when we drafted those 2. Curry & Chandler clogging up the inside, Gordon on the outside, Hinrich and Deng inbetween. That's a Hell of a lineup if they're all together.

The suns weren't going to win in the west with the ability of San Antonio to go out and dominate on the defensive end and on the boards. If they get more rebounds on the defensive end, it will lead to more fast break points by the Suns. This is a good trade for both teams...I think New York gets the better player, but Phoenix gets a better piece for their puzzle.

The Bush Administration's chief political advisor, and probably the only reason Mr. Bush is even in the White House, Karl Rove?, had some less-than-pleasant things to say about the Democratic Party and terrorism at a Republican Party meeting last night in New York. Go ahead and read it...he's about to suggest that liberals deliberately want the U.S. soldiers in Iraq to die, and don't care at all about 9/11. Here is an exerpt from Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid's response: The White House also stood by and defended Mr. Rove's remarks. Of course he's not talking about different approaches Scott. Wonderful spin. He's saying exactly what the Republicans have been saying since 9/11 - the Democrats don't care about Terrorism, and only the Republicans can protect you. It's the message they campaigned on in 2002 and 2004. Rove just said it incredibly bluntly. Here's something to watch...which will get more coverage, Dick Durbin's remarks or Karl Rove's?

1 other thing to toss into this discussion: Remember this, the usual rule of thumb is that when a pitcher moves from the AL to the NL, his ERA drops by 1 run. When a pitcher moves from the NL to the AL, his ERA goes up by roughly 1 run. This can vary a little, but when you get rid of the pitcher's easy out slot and have to face a powerful DH, that's the result. In other words...don't just look at National League ERA's and think they'll put up the same numbers in the AL. It will be 1 run worse per 9 innings, at least.

I still say it's a mistake to underestimate the kind of year Crede could have, THIS YEAR. Yes, Joe Crede had a Godawful May. Absolutely horrid. Worthy of being benched. But when's the last time you looked at his performance the other 2 months this year? BA/OBP/Slug/OPS April: .304 .368 .456 .824 2 HR June: .315 .383 .593 .976 4 HR If he avoids falling into another May at any point this year, he'll hit .290 at this rate.

QUOTE(Jimenez4MVP @ Jun 23, 2005 -> 10:09 AM) I still wish we didnt trade Lee.. We lost that deal 49-22.

I absolutely hate this amendment, for all the reasons above, but I'd like to take this conversation in a different direction: if this amendment does pass, then I want 1 thing to come of it. I want there to be actual laws saying that people cannot desecrate the flag. That's actually what the amendment says - its not just flag burning. Now, I was a Boy Scout in the past, and so I know something about the rules governing how to deal with the flag. I've also spent some time working as a door-to-door salesperson. This has, I feel, given me something of a unique perspective on this matter. Why? Very simple. I cannot tell you how many dozens of houses I have gone by, just in the period of a few months, who were openly desecrating the flag. Did you know that it's considered an insult to the flag to hang it lower than other flags? Did you know it's considered an insult to the flag to hang it when it is tattered or torn or faded? Most importantly, did you know that it is considered flag descration to let the flag touch the ground? I hate this amendment, but if it passes, I want to be able to call the police and tell them that so and so at this house has the U.S. flag resting on the ground. You could do it all the time - people are so damn careless with the things its unreal. That way, when the careless fools get home, they'll discover that they have a $200 fine or something like that for flag desecration, and they'll learn really quickly that either they need to take better care of their flag or they better as all Hell keep a closer eye on their government.

QUOTE(kapkomet @ Jun 16, 2005 -> 07:38 AM) Congress may pass it but I bet the states don't. In the past, something like 49 states have at 1 time or another passed statements saying that they support such a ban. It needs to die in the Senate...if not there's a solid chance it will get the support it needs in the States.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jun 22, 2005 -> 06:57 PM) The problem with that is Rogers' worst game this season 5.2 IP and 5 ER. But we can dream right. On the other hand, Vlad the Impaler has a history of impaling Kenny Rogers.

QUOTE(JimH @ Jun 22, 2005 -> 03:59 PM) Part of his reason for doing this is to calm the nerves of White Sox fans who are worried about another 5th starter fiasco. I think he's just trying to make public the point about how unhappy he was with what just happened with El Duque.

QUOTE(sayitaintso @ Jun 22, 2005 -> 03:41 PM) Probaly uppper 50's to mid 60's when it's at it's best. Even better. I've seen him K people on a 49 mph pitch before. Low 50's means he's on. If he's throwing it for strikes.

QUOTE(nvxplorer @ Jun 22, 2005 -> 03:43 PM) Exactly. If he had gotten behind, he would have used the spinner. If he could have thrown it for a strike.

QUOTE(The Ginger Kid @ Jun 22, 2005 -> 03:23 PM) I would wager that he's gone at the end of the season, Tracy before then. I'll admit that the LAT has really gone down on the kid, but I was really under the impression that he was management's guy. Also...Tracy has 1 division championship to his credit. That kept Manuel around until 2003. I wager both are back next year, but Depodesta would have a much shorter leash next year.

QUOTE(Rowand44 @ Jun 22, 2005 -> 03:16 PM) He did throw one changeup. I'll admit I missed it. But 1 changeup does not a wonderful Takatsu make. Did he throw it for a strike?