Balta1701

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 01:04 AM) What an amazing deal Trump worked out! He makes the best deals. Believe me. He's working hard for exactly what got him elected - a promise of fewer S***house minorities.

QUOTE (mac9001 @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 02:41 AM) What I was trying to say is they should held off on budget reconciliation until they got everything they wanted (including obamacare repeal) and made a deal with Democrats to fund the government. Instead the they blew their load and now have to figure out how to govern with a party that's that has little interest in running a functional government. Throwing the Dens DACA would have been a low price to pay. The one person in all of this I would have expected to do his best keep the government open was Trump, but he seems content sitting on the sidelines to watch this dumpster fire. Wait am I reading this right or did you describe the Democrats as "little interest in running a functional government"?

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 12:05 PM) Blackmon and Pollack I could get behind.. Not so much for Jones. Jones hasn't been a plus defender the last 2 years any more but he's still a plus player as of now. If we're in a spot where we don't want to give out a 5 year deal to a CF because we know Robert is on the way, Jones might be an option on a shorter deal.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 01:32 AM) My thoughts are that White Sox baseball is always super fun to watch because it’s White Sox baseball. And when they are good, oh baby it’s just pure juicy tastiness. 2018 is going to be one of the most fun years to follow EVER. Think about that Greg my man. Next year will be one of the most fun years ever. I like playing my video games with cheat codes. I would sit front row for a team with a cheat code. Ours will be playing RF. And Pitching. And 2b. In 2019 we're using the bleeping Game Genie.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 11:51 PM) This is the post of the year or at least the offseason. Shields and Gonzalez as choices? LOL. People will pay to watch those guys be 2/5s of our rotation? Ridiculous. Seriously I don't care if they'll pay this year. Buy season tickets this year, lock in your seats for 2019 and 2020 because we're demolishing this league.

QUOTE (mac9001 @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 12:16 AM) There's no shortage of buyers for US treasury debt. You can give away 10 trillion more and it won't stop a trillion dollar infrastructure plan if policy and politics align. The GOP doesn't have to worry about our fiscal state 10 years from now, they just need to get 50 votes in the senate, add trillion more to the debt and maybe you can at least hold onto the senate come the fall. They need to get 60 votes to keep the government open. They had 2 bills that could pass, guaranteed, with 50 votes, per Senate rules. They could have structured them any way they want if they were budget-neutral after 10 years. Those were the 2018 and 2017 budget resolutions. The GOP used the 2017 Budget resolution bill, stripped the details out, and put their Affordable Care Act repeal bill in that hulk. It only got 49 votes. The GOP used the 2018 Budget Resolution bill, stripped the details out, and put their tax cut package in that bill. That left them with no 50 vote budget resolution bill that could be used to pass a budget. So, they now need 10 Democratic votes + 1 for every one they lose of their own.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 12:34 PM) Probably Taj or Buckets who made the vote. Mirotic. Clearly.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 05:31 PM) It's still double what the owners received. The F***? Are you actually not counting the explosion in franchise value? Where they went from neat playtoys to billion dollar assets?

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 07:39 PM) Agree with this. We have pitching depth, but #1 & #2 starters aren’t easy to come by. Hansen has that type of potential and we’re going to need it if god forbid Rodon never takes that next step or Giolito & Lopez settle in as #3 types (or worse). And I personally don’t think OF should be an area of priorization right now. I have a ton of confidence in Jimenez & Robert becoming quality major leaguers if not legit superstars. Just need one more and we have quite a few interesting prospects plus a guy in Nicky Delmonico that I think will surprise a lot of people next year. I know talents like Yelich aren’t always readily available, but I’d rather see what we have in-house in 2018 and go shopping the following offseason if need be, preferably with cash instead of prospects if at all possible. Adam Jones, Charlie Blackmon, and AJ Pollock are all Free Agents next offseason. If CF remains a need, we have the money.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 05:04 PM) The Cease stuff is more based on what scouts seem to suggest in terms of his future. He would be a top 50 guy if he was projected as a starter. Exactly that. If he were to throw 120 innings next year for the White Sox, with his stuff, people will be talking about him in the same breath as the top 2-3 pitching prospects in baseball. That's the game the White Sox are in right now - some of these assets could very well be worth a lot more next year. They shouldn't spoil that even if they get a really good player in exchange for several of them.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 04:45 PM) That could be true but that's not what a salary is. The comment was that the salary is less and less. The salaries are not less. I had the same discussion in the financial section. I can't believe how many people think that employees should make as much as the owners. It boggles my mind. Also, the players have fared much better than owners since the first CBA. Here is some info from this article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhause...8/#5e48ba273e48 It marked the latest coup for sports’ most powerful union where the average salary has jumped 20,700% (2,832% after inflation) since players signed the first collective bargaining agreement (CBA) in pro sports in 1968. Baseball owners have also experienced dramatic gains during that time however they have not kept up with the growth in salaries. The values are up 11,300% on average, or roughly half the increase in salaries. The average salary has only jumped 28 times after inflation since they were artificially held down in the 60s? I'm stunned it's that little. And "Since the first CBA" is a pretty terrible standard to use for this - the players salaries jumped by factors of 10 in 1967-1982, and again by factor of 10 from 1982-2000, then only by a factor of 4 over the last 17 years. Either revenue growth has dramatically slowed or the share going to the players has decreased dramatically.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 04:52 PM) I agree that this is probably what it would take. I'd never do it though, and I doubt the Sox would either. Not worth it at this point in the rebuild In a year Cease could be one of the top 10 prospects in baseball if he stays healthy.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 08:06 PM) That's why I think he can. he played 6 years in the minors with decent stats (bad, really). Suddenly, in 2016 he sports a .793 OPS in Charlotte - he had never been close to that before at any level of the minor leagues. Then last year, he does a decent job in the majors, taking another step up. I think there's a decent chance he takes a third step up this year. Don't forget with Leury - he's also a guy that was pushed very aggressively through the minors. He was in AA at age 21, and then spent only a few weeks at AAA before he was called up. Both the Rangers and the White Sox needed a utility guy role filled and it was more important to have that role filled on the big league squad than to see if the player could develop into anything. Some of his minor league performances likely reflect those decisions.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 06:24 PM) So how does one become a member? I've never met someone who has said they are alt-right. Do neo nazis and far right evangelicals know they are a part of this group? Do they have a choice? You and others throw this around at other posters after those few occasions someone posts an opinion back here that doesn't align with the groupthink. Is everyone who isn't liberal alt-right? Do people have a choice in whether they're alt-right? Is it as simple as someone who has an opinion that doesn't align with Vox or WaPo opens themselves up to be branded by the liberals? Just because Spencer and Bannon exist and have spoken on the alt-right doesn't mean the media hasn't made it a misnomer. It's a snarl word - a gambit for people on the left (who talk politics in the ugly, American partisan team-based form of discourse discourse) to classify and repudiate those with alternative opinions. It's a tactic to shut down critical thinking and to liken anybody with an opinion left of center as some racist, internet hooligan. It's cheap. Ironically, the term was apparently promoted initially by Richard Spencer when in 2010 he launched a magazine with that name.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 05:34 PM) They're also holding CHIP funding hostage on this one. Might not even have the votes in the House at this point. They were going to include that as a way to get enough Democrats to vote for this for it to pass until today when Donald Trump tweeted he did not want that included as part of a short term spending bill.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 05:14 PM) Down already 2-4 votes on the GOP side, and then McCain/Flake are always wildcards, McCain especially over military spending. Then you have Collins/Murkowski. If they have truly drawn the line on DACA, it’s going to be a crazy week ahead of us. Um, there's a slightly larger issue for McCain's vote than military spending right now. He's in Arizona undergoing cancer treatment and thus cannot easily make a vote called in the short term.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 11:54 AM) Let's face it. The bottom line is when she first resisted AT ALL he needed to turn on the TV and say "my bad, I misread the situation let's watch some TV." Can I get you some water, some coffee? Let's just chat." Then if he got bored, pretend he's falling asleep and hopefully the date ends right there with her catching an Uber or continuing to watch TV til she wanted to leave. There are no excuses for men in these situations. If a celebrity in the past has "pushed" as Azid did in this case, his career may be over and he may be in jail facing charges as well. I have no opinion either way except you now must be a gentleman at all times. It's just the way it is. In the past you also should have been a gentleman but we all know when you meet somebody things can escalate. The term is one-night stand for a reason. There can be no more one night stands, folks. Celebrities beware. One night stands are ova. Or you could just, you know, ask the person.

QUOTE (JenksIsMyHero @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 01:09 PM) if there's a positive....at least we know the system works and people take it seriously. And now we also know that people won't believe it if there's another warning.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 05:46 PM) I don't follow the minors nearly as closely as you guys do, but I like the mix of guys like Rutherford, whose floor is probably 4th OF, and Adolfo, whose ceiling is All Star. There's some nice balance there. And the right fielder whose ceiling is "God of Thunder".

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 04:35 PM) I think a big problem is that the owners have done too good of a job suppressing young players salaries. The whole team control and arbitration system needs a whole revamp. And now all 30 front offices realize this and all have similar game plans. Young cost-controlled players are all every GM looks for, they offer up the team-friendly extensions, then say good-bye at age 28-30. There are exceptions of course, but teams are so much less willing to pay for a guy who is about to start declining when you can have a cheap player for his 6 best years. It's not just that - the lack of a hard salary cap is hurting now too. You have 2 behemoth teams, the Yankees and the Dodgers, that are well built for about $200 million, and one of them is going to add Bryce Harper next offseason to a team that already was really good. You then have a handful of other well built teams, but basically you have right now 4 behemoth teams, 2 of them with huge money spent. If your team wins 88 games next year, do you really think you can outgun the Dodgers in a 7 game series and the Indians in the next one? I don't. Teams know that if they are stuck in the middle, that isn't good enough right now. They need to be exceptional, and they can't get there with the talent available.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 05:03 PM) That he's decent. He's nothing special. They don't know about Tilson. As long as they are "wasting" another season on development, they may as well see what they have in Tilson. They know what they have in Garcia, a decent player. That is the rationale for Tilson. If they were trying to compete this year, Garcia would be the safer option. But it's not so they should see what Tilson has. I have no issue expecting to play all of them (hence why I want to keep some of these spots open). But I should ask - why do we know that Leury can't go from "Decent" to "Good" with continued playing time?

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 08:21 PM) This is an incredibly simplistic view of what is occurring right now on the market. You have an outstanding player who is being undervalued due to a number of reasons, many of which are likely unique to this free agency period. Yes, I get that he is 30, and that he brings no value from the defensive side of the ball. And yes, I agree that players hitting FA around his age are likely to see length of deals decrease as baseball GMs realize that many players on the wrong side of 30, or probably more fairly, as they approach 35, are seeing a sharp decline in performance, particularly in a non-PED environment. That being said, several large market teams are sitting out on premier FAs this year due to next year FA class, as well as to reset their luxury tax penalties. Additionally, many other teams simply are accepting that rebuilds are necessary and therefore, it makes no sense to sign expensive veterans. Finally, you have a few teams like the Giants and Blue Jays who feel like they are approaching the end of their windows, and thus, have no interest in long-term deals. Then you have the White Sox and Phillies who have already begun rebuilds, have money, but are a little hesitant to go crazy in FA at the moment because they are not yet competitive enough to justify the expendititure at this stage. I get it. However, next year’s FA period will be ultra-competitive. Many large market teams, as well as some others that have been arranging their payrolls for YEARS for an opportunity to bid on a small handful of players will be all outbidding themselves. Machado and Harper will be the big prizes, and due to that competitiveness, I believe they will be paid significantly more than even reasonable projections suggest they should. Then there will be guys like Donaldson, who will happily take other significantly large deals because they will be consolation prizes. The point of this is that even though a player may not align perfectly with our trajectory for winning, that doesn’t mean we should be so rigid as to not consider acquiring him, should other factors outweigh the timing. Simply because we have the cash does not mean we will have the ability to acquire the assets in FA that we need, when we need them, as if we are purchasing them from Amazon. Doing so will likely result in out of market deals that could very likely be worse than had we simply taken the opportunities in the market as they presented themselves. I think Martinez may be one such opportunity. One of the points I was pondering last night and did not have an opportunity to reply to is in here. To summarize your point - based on the fact that the Yankees and Dodgers are going to be out of the penalties assuming no other major moves this year, next year is the year that could turn into a serious "player's market" - that there will be more teams on the market than there are players. I'm not 100% convinced by the point I'm about to make, but I think we should be skeptical of that view. Recent history argues the exact opposite in fact; the last 3 offseasons have seen a very different situation. The last time we saw a very strong crop of free agents with a number of teams willing to spend was after the 2015 offseason; there were a bunch of OFs on the market, including Heyward, Upton, Alex Gordon, and Cespedes, along with David Price, Zach Greinke, Chris Davis, Jordan Zimmerman, Cueto, Samardzija, Ian Desmond, Ben Zobrist, etc. There were a bunch of teams who went out and bought players, including some unexpected ones like the Giants and Tigers. But what happened in the end? The year still became a buyers market at the end. Teams went out and got some guys like Heyward early, but then the last few OFs got stuck out there. Chris Davis got really good money, but he had to wait until January 21 to do it. Justin Upton waited until January 19. Yoenis Cespedes literally got stuck; he had to take a 1 year deal with the Mets and then hit the FA market again in 2016. In 2016, we again saw guys get decent money, but it was again a buyers market. Encarnacion got good money, but on a somewhat short deal. Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista found basically no market for their services; Trumbo signed for under $40 million. This offseason, what are we seeing again? We're talking about JD Martinez under the notion that it's a buyers market again. Hosmer is still out there. Logan Morrison is still out there. Moustakas is still out there. To my eyes, this is 3 straight buyers markets. The more I sit back, the more I'm wondering if the reason the White Sox have made no moves on Garcia and Abreu is that they're expecting something similar in 2019; another buyers market where if they want to keep the guys they can. Personally I hate gambling like that so I'd say we should do something about them now, but watching this market develop it seems to make more sense to me. So your case is that because the Dodgers and Yankees won't have the multi-year penalties, next year will be the exception of all exceptions. That is certainly possible and I can't rule that out. However I think there's an argument against that too. It's not just Machado and Harper next year. Those guys will get their money, but after them there is going to have to be money for Kershaw, Andrew Miller, Kimbrel - just those 5 we are probably talking over $1 billion dollars in possible contract value. Then you throw in Dozier, Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy, AJ Pollock, Donaldson; there are going to be a huge number of assets available on that market as well. And just like we see right now with the Yankees and Dodgers, there are teams that in previous years were threats to buy these guys that will be cutting payroll - the Giants and the Tigers specifically come to mind. Yes the Yankees and Dodgers will make their splash. One of them will get Harper, one of them will get something else big. Yes, Machado will get paid - I still think the White Sox have him if they want him, it just won't be cheap. But at the end of the list, once those teams blow through their big funds, I think it's entirely possible that, just like the last 3 years, there are several guys stuck at the end of the January with a market that has dried up, particularly the slugging type because that's where we see it the most. The big guys will get their big money, but the argument that you won't be able to find an exceptionally strong DH on the free agent market the next 2 offseasons for a surprisingly low price, if that's what you are looking for - that is at the very least inconsistent with what we've seen every year since 2015. JD Martinez may be the best of the bunch by a small amount, he may be the best bargain by a small amount, but I find it difficult to be 100% certain of that given recent history. If it is going to happen that the market will finally run out of players, you're probably right next year has the best shot, with where the Dodgers and Yankees are, but my guess is it will play out a lot like 2015.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 08:02 PM) I’m not following what you are getting at here. Add the player who improves us in 2018 - you hurt the White Sox 2019 draft position. You don't cost yourself the draft pick in the 2nd round, but by making the draft round position worse, you ~ lose something comparable. I don't think a 2nd round pick is a big deal myself, but if people are bringing it up, an extra 5 wins next year could easily cost the white sox something comparable in value.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 08:55 PM) Not only that, but we won’t lose a draft pick. Additionally, I think a similar player next year or the year after would require a larger AAV to sign him due to market conditions. While you can get him for something like you mentioned this year, the same player or a worse player may cost you far more, exceeding any efficiencies you gain by aligning the timing. I do respect the fact that we don’t want to get over anxious, and this is why I have very little interest in Yelich, for instance. But for a FA that doesn’t cost a draft pick, you can afford to stray from your timing a bit if the other factors outweigh the slight timing misalignment. If you're worried about costing a draft pick - the difference in average value between drafting #6 and #15 is comparable to the value of a 2nd round pick. Last year that would have taken an extra 7 wins to shift the draft spot by that much.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 17, 2018 -> 07:47 PM) Great post and I 100% agree! Let’s just say for fun that we can sign Martinez to a 5/$120M deal this offseason. Here’s a somewhat realistic projection of his value as a DH over the life of his contract, which represent his age 30 to 34 seasons: fWAR. Value. Surplus. 2018: 4.0. $36M. $12M 2019: 4.0. $36M. $12M 2020: 3.5. $31M. $7M 2021: 3.0. $27M. $3M 2022: 2.5. $22M. ($2M) Total: 19.0. $152M. $32M 19-22: 15.0. $116M. $20M As you can see, the contract would provide roughly $20M in surplus value from 2019 to 2022. That would nearly offset his 2018 salary and make the entire deal basically a break-even proposition. However, such a move creates much more certainty for 2019 and likely makes us much more attractive to the big free agents next winter. I wouldn’t just go sign any free agent right now, but if Martinez is really going to settle for a 5 year deal at a reasonable AAA, we should most definitely take advantage of that market inefficiency. Just to stress - you've projected him to be a better player in 2018, 2019, and 2020 than he was in any year of his career "other than 2017" if you're putting him as a DH only. You're saying that he'll be a better hitter at age 33 than he was at age 29 by 100 points of OPS. Maybe he will be. But if you're putting him as primarily a DH, you've just assumed that he's going to continue doing what he did one time so far in his career to get that value out of him. Hence why, frankly, I don't have any interest in playing this game.