NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Mar 17, 2013 -> 10:42 AM) Quintana - obvious Konerko - his injured 2nd half was bad, but his first two months were Cabrera-esque. I doubt he repeats that, which was huge for the Sox first half Sale- The kid is a stud, but there's no guarantee he puts up another Cy Young caliber season. A 3.50-3.75 ERA season in the AL is great, but that would be a drop off from last season. Crain - injured already as you mentioned Peavy - that was his best season in 5 years, hope he can repeat it Veal - can't get every lefty out forever Dunn - he was just OK last year, but 2011 still happened and he's 33. Still no guarantees that he is past the '11 hiccups I'm not trying to predict doom & gloom for all these players (like some people around here do), but if a couple of them can't perform up to last year's level, that could be the difference between 90 wins & 85 wins. Much of your analysis seems to be ignoring half of the season... Why is Quintana obvious? If anything, I think he's likely to improve in at least the sense that now he's stretched out to full season innings. And he's already added some new tactics in the spring. What is "obvious" with him? You think he's going to get hurt, or you think the league will catch up to him? Konerko's 2 month binge was offset by nagging injuries (and whatever else) that caused a poor last 4 months. His OPS on the full season was the lowest he's posted since 2009. The only reason to think regression with him is age - which is certainly possible to be an issue. Sale had a very good season, but not a Cy Young season - he had been until he started to hit a bit of a wall. Barring injury, he should push past that wall. I don't think a similar season is out of the question, if he's healthy - which is the big question with him. That's really my only concern. Veal replaced the use of other relievers who didn't do as well - but veal was only there part of the season. Now he'll be around longer - I call that an improvement. Peavy had his best season in 5 years? Peavy had his 2nd season after injury - that is the key. And his 3.37 ERA is pretty much in line with his career norms, in fact higher than his norms pre-2010. And he's going to be 32, still in his pitching prime. You make it sound like his 2012 was outside his norm - on the contrary, it was almost exactly his norm. I don't disagree about Crain, or Rios. And with Konerko there is some risk that age finally catches up with him - though he looks awfully sharp this spring so far.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Mar 15, 2013 -> 09:22 PM) 84-78. For every guy that can break out and have a big year, we have just as many that are due for regression due to age, injuries, or whatever. In the end, I see a big jumble of mediocrity and another .500 team. I keep seeing this... who? Who is due for regression? Rios I can see. But who else had abnormally good years last year that are still with the team? I think as far as non-injury-related regression candidates, Rios and maybe Crain are good possibilities. Are people thinking Konerko? He already fell off as the year went on, so unless you think he's really going to fall off a cliff, I don't see it. I think the list of players who were below average for their careers, are coming back from being gone, or are young and developing, is a lot longer than the list of regression candidates.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Mar 15, 2013 -> 02:48 PM) I will let you know at around 10:00 PM tonight. If they don't beat MSU, no chance. QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 15, 2013 -> 02:49 PM) This. They're too far out right now, they need another big win. concur.

Anyone think Iowa gets into the tourney?

So, is Iowa State locked in now? Have to be I'd think. Oklahoma is probably in too, but not as sure there. Baylor is out.

I look at it broken down into categories: regression candidates, progression/addition candidates, injury risks and assumptions, bench, and using all that as +/- against last year… As for regression… Rios is unlikely to replicate his 2012 numbers, though since his improvement seems tied to mechanical changes, I don’t think a huge slide is likely. People talk about losing AJ, but I have to say, if you look at Flowers’ numbers when playing full time or close (minors, plus somewhat late last year) compared to AJ’s career numbers and age, I think Flowers matches AJ this season. Which is still a slide, so that is a regression most likely. Konerko had a good year, but 2nd half he was MIA. I’ll say he regresses slightly, overall. In terms of pitching… I don’t see any starters likely to regress if healthy. In the pen, Thornton scares me, if he loses more velocity or control at all he can fall off a cliff fast. Progression… 3B will likely be vastly improved over last year. Alexei has his worst year at the plate, and seems to be stronger in spring with sitting further back in the box, so I think he improves. Viciedo is still figuring it out, he’s the same guy at worst, but more likely improves. I’m going to guess Beckham is the same guy, same with Dunn. Pitching-wise, getting Danks back if he’s healthy is big. Floyd has ceiling room, but always does it seems. The young bullpen arms like Reed and Jones should get better. Crain and Lindstrom are what they are. Peavy could be better or worse, I’ll go with same. Injuries… on offense, De Aza scares me a little and Mitchell isn’t really ready IMO, so there is some risk there. Sale, Peavy and definitely Danks all have risk, and I’m guessing one of them goes down for at least a period of time. Good news there is, I like Axelrod and more so Castro, so the drop-off shouldn’t be TOO huge. And the Sox seem to just be good at avoiding a lot of injuries. Bench… Gimenez I think will be a good backup, and Wise is Wise. Gillaspie is likely to get a spot, and I think he’s better than a lot of the alternatives from last year, assuming he gets playing time. The backup middle IF will likely be pretty bad, but no worse than last year. This was a slightly above average offense last year, and I think with the +/-, they are similar or slightly better. Pitching-wise, I think they will be markedly better. Defensively, they only changed C and 3B – I think C improves a lot defensively, and 3B should be similar to Youk, maybe a slight drop-off. Bench is slightly better. One wildcard – the schedule. The increased IL play should help them a bit, but KC and CLE have gotten better, so that may shave things a bit. I give that plus 6 wins without the wildcard factor mentioned above, take 2 away for that, which gives them 89. Will be marginal to make the post-season, but definitely possible.

We do this every March. SoxTalk on net has actually been pretty decent at this, better than many of the statistical models and "experts". Will SoxTalk do it again? How many wins? Answer poll and discuss...

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Mar 14, 2013 -> 01:09 PM) God, I hope Phil Rogers starts posting here so we can have some threads about random trade (im)possibilities with no basis in reality. In fact.....is it possible that Phil Rogers already has a Soxtalk handle? He does.

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Mar 5, 2013 -> 04:13 PM) Seth Loman seems like a guy who should've gotten a chance before he got to this age. Switch-hitter. Granted I know it's 1b/LF and so many fall through the cracks at those spots. Maybe this is our cheap labor Dan Johnson by midyear. His K/PA rates were in the upper 20's or higher most of the way through his minor league time, which is kind of a large number for an older player. I think the key thing that happened for him was the drop in K rate to below 20% at AA last year, even though his core results stayed much the same.

Writing that article, I really realized just how much more depth this system has now than it did a few years ago. If you had said, in say 2009 or 2010, make a list of the interesting guys outside the Sox T25... I could have maybe found 10. Not over 30, as in this article. Look at the outfield. The current top outfield prospects might look something like this... Hawkins Thompson Mitchell Walker Shoemaker Haddow Short Earley Otano Plus Danks2 and Tekotte as non-qual guys. Now, think about what the list would have looked like in 2010. Danks2 and Short at the top, and then... mostly a bunch of nothing. Viciedo maybe, sort of, but he was a semi-pro pickup. That is a world of difference.

With Sox minor leaguers playing on both sides of the ball, this should be an interesting watch for those following prospects.

LOL, d'oh! Changed the title.

After putting up our Top 25 Prospects list back in January, we thought it would be fun to do an article about the "Next" guys. Prospects who didn't make the T25, but are still worth keeping an eye on. Read our list and our reasoning here. Some of these guys will probably be on the next T25 list, if history is any indication.

QUOTE (baseball17 @ Mar 2, 2013 -> 03:36 PM) QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 1, 2013 -> 01:29 PM) Not sure if this was posted, but LHP Charlie Leesman (FS #13 prospect) is going to throw off a mound today, for the first time since his injury and surgery in September. Looks like he's on schedule to be ready for the season. Hopefully he gets called this year, deserved it last year. It really isn't about "deserved it". It is a question of what role opens up, and who is best for that role. Leesman isn't particularly helpful as a LOOGY, because his splits are backwards or even keel. He's a starter, maybe long reliever, and bringing him in for short relief doesn't make much sense. Now, in terms of starters, right now you have the starting 5 of Sale-Peavy-Danks-Floyd-Quintana, followed by Santiago or Axelrod... that's 7 starters. Leesman is, at best, 8th on the depth chart for a starting slot, and probably 3rd or maybe at best 2nd for a long man role.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 28, 2013 -> 12:53 PM) Every time you bring this up, you fail to give a reason. Why do you think he's terrible at baseball, as you have said repeatedly? What is your reasoning? Take a look at Flowers' offensive numbers during his minor league career, and compare them to AJ's. At each level along the way, Flowers had an OPS at least 100 points higher. Flowers struck out more, but had much more power and got on base far more often. Flowers had a down year in 2010, his first mostly full year in AAA, but still posted a .768 OPS. AJ also struggled in AAA, putting up a .709 OPS in parts of 3 seasons (much like Flowers was at AAA for parts of 3 seasons, but his OPS at that level was 100+ points higher). Offensively, Flowers' minor league profile looks a lot better than AJ's. When AJ finally got a full time job in the majors, he made a leap, as he got more playing time. Similarly, Flowers started to get better late last year with, again, more playing time. All this is not even to mention that Flowers is, right now, much better defensively than AJ. And that the pitchers like working with Flowers. And, oh yeah, the $7M the Sox saved meant they could acquire Keppinger and Lindstrom, to address significant holes. Let's hear your argument. *crickets*

Not sure if this was posted, but LHP Charlie Leesman (FS #13 prospect) is going to throw off a mound today, for the first time since his injury and surgery in September.

In any given season, it is hard to blame trainers or conditioning coaches or pitching coaches for injuries - too much randonmess. But over many years, with the same staff in those positions, when you are consistently healthier than other teams (despite being older than average many years)... it is time to acknowledge there is a positive trend there. No doubt in my mind, they deserve some credit for it, and the formulas just don't adjust for it.

QUOTE (bighurt4life @ Feb 28, 2013 -> 10:57 PM) Gotta have more mental toughness than that. Injuries are just part of the deal when you play sports. I've blown out both knees in the past 5 years so I know what it's like and I'll tell you that feeling sorry for yourself and quitting doesn't help you heal any faster. That seems overly harsh to me. You have to have some perspective here - and understand he's just being realistic. He's going to turn 25 this September, and likely would miss all this season. He'd be 25 when he got going again, with only a partial season worth of play in rookie ball under his belt, and turn 26 during what might be his first full season in pro ball. After two surgeries. To say he'd have an extremely long shot to ever make it at that point, would be an understatement. Also, not to diminish your experiences, but you are not a professional athlete. The situations are very different. This guy isn't giving up on rehab, he's having to make a decision about his career.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 28, 2013 -> 01:31 PM) Yes. Although I will take the Rob Deere button down as a substitute Ivan Calderon's chest hair and gold chains FTW.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Feb 28, 2013 -> 12:16 PM) I meant to state here on this message board. Never said it had any merit. Just find it funny how the opinion on him has changed so quickly. That was the point I was trying to make. And yes, wite, he did well down the stretch to change that opinion, but I think the catcher position has to be far and away the biggest concern going into the season. Every time you bring this up, you fail to give a reason. Why do you think he's terrible at baseball, as you have said repeatedly? What is your reasoning? Take a look at Flowers' offensive numbers during his minor league career, and compare them to AJ's. At each level along the way, Flowers had an OPS at least 100 points higher. Flowers struck out more, but had much more power and got on base far more often. Flowers had a down year in 2010, his first mostly full year in AAA, but still posted a .768 OPS. AJ also struggled in AAA, putting up a .709 OPS in parts of 3 seasons (much like Flowers was at AAA for parts of 3 seasons, but his OPS at that level was 100+ points higher). Offensively, Flowers' minor league profile looks a lot better than AJ's. When AJ finally got a full time job in the majors, he made a leap, as he got more playing time. Similarly, Flowers started to get better late last year with, again, more playing time. All this is not even to mention that Flowers is, right now, much better defensively than AJ. And that the pitchers like working with Flowers. And, oh yeah, the $7M the Sox saved meant they could acquire Keppinger and Lindstrom, to address significant holes. Let's hear your argument.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Feb 28, 2013 -> 08:49 AM) If he was any good he could do both at the same time. Tyler Flowers grinds out double plays every night after the game. There's a whole mountain of possibilities for this theme.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 28, 2013 -> 08:37 AM) Let's recap: -AJ's season wasn't an outlier because he hit 17 one time (8 years ago) -We should have brought him back because Cubs fans hate him (all baseball fans hate him) -Tyler Flowers is prone to weight gain because he is tall and big bodied, therefore he will suck (don't you guys remember Frank Thomas?! HE SUCKED BECAUSE HE GAINED WEIGHT!) -Josh Phegley needs to be considered an option with his career minor league OPS of .685 (DYN-O-MITE!) -We get to make up arbitrary numbers to defend ourselves (Flowers has 317 PAs and 107 K's; also 12 HR and 33 BB) -AJ is a clutch hitter (though no numbers are provided to back it up) -Tyler Flowers will never succeed in clutch situations because he is a girly man (nevermind that he hit a game winning homer last year) -Tyler Flowers is a GIDP machine (I'd prefer he be a love machine) -Hector Gimenez and Josh Phegley will destroy Flowers the Girly Man™ in Spring Training -We can now count stints of 20 PA and 15 PA as full seasons (Flowers the Girly Man™ is a 4 year vet now! PAY HIM) -Don't have to look through baseball history to see trends (though you can if you'd like) -AJ hit .300 15 years ago in 13 ABs, so he must be a .300 hitter (but he will never hit a home run) --------- I just facepalmed so hard I sniffed someone's butt in China Bazooka.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 26, 2013 -> 01:13 PM) Confirmed, it is indeed Royse who is retiring. A little more data on this... the guy was drafted, had TJ on his elbow shortly after, missed all of 2011, pitched in limited action in 2012. Then apparently, this year, on the FIRST DAY of workouts, he blew out his knee. When faced with the prospect of another surgery, another year of rehab, etc., he decided to retire. Can't really blame him. Feel awful for the guy.

QUOTE (The 815 @ Feb 26, 2013 -> 01:51 AM) I'm fairly certain he said Thomas Royse. He didn't play at Winston-Salem, but he does have an extensive injury history, so I could be wrong. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 26, 2013 -> 07:50 AM) That would make sense. Confirmed, it is indeed Royse who is retiring.

FutureSox updated the profiles for all Top 25 prospects, and a few others we have profiles here, if you want to get a little briefing on the guys at the top of the pile going into the season.