ScottyDo

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 20, 2015 -> 11:10 PM) Bauer had bad command and hung a lot of pitches today. Sox don't have a hit with someone on base today. Didn't Abreu get a single with Eaton on base in the first?

M&Ms guy made the trip to DET eh?

Per fangraphs, 90.8 mph average on his fastball this season. Career average is 90.9.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 8, 2015 -> 11:42 AM) That's how big my penis is. Please clarify: is your penis +1, 12 posts long, or 94.50 ERA units?

I mean, lineup protection HAS to mean fewer IBB's to your best hitter, right? That's definitely how it works when you have piss-poor protection from the 9-hole in the NL. And presumably you'd rather have your best hitter swing the bat than get an IBB...or else it wouldn't make sense for any manager to intentionally walk the other team's best hitter. So there has to be some effect on overall production, just from IBB rates, right?

Ahhh okay that explains it. I was really struggling to wrap my head around that one. Thanks!

So I keep seeing/hearing people say that the Cubs went underslot in the first two rounds so they could save money from their total allotment to go overslot in future rounds. That's all well and good, but here's what I don't get: Unless I'm mistaken, you're only allowed to go over your slot value by, like, 15% before the penalties become prohibitive. If you are saving money for later rounds, the value of that percentage drops because that slot number the percentage is based on drops, too, right? So not only is your slot number going from, say $3M in the first round to #1.5M in the 2nd round, but your total overslot wiggle room has gone from $450k to $225K. By the time you're in the 4th round the slot number is ~$350k, and you can only go about $50k overslot. So if there's a kid that's considered difficult to sign, you can't wait until the 4th round because $400k isn't gonna do it for him. So what I'm saying is... What? How does it make sense to save money early if you can't use it to overpay signability guys with any significant incentive? What's the point in saving $1-2M on the front end to max out unpersuasive deals on the back end? I'm sure a baseball-savvy person here can explain the theory to me, because I'm sure the Cubs FO isn't just a bunch of idiots. Are the penalties for going significantly overslot not as bad as I think? Is there something else at play?

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 2, 2014 -> 07:46 PM) No. You can't stretch out a guy at the major league level or else you stretch out your bullpen. You especially can't do this when the rest of your rotation is terrible and the bullpen is being stretched out too often. You especially especially cannot do this when your bullpen is thin too and now we start risking injuries on their arms as well. It can work once in a blue moon followed by an off day (see the last start) but not when you play 8 games in a row. So obviously won't work today. I don't have much confidence in Ventura but even he will make the right move here. Is it a better move for the club to win some games in the short term or have someone they think can be a starter for the long term?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 2, 2014 -> 05:59 PM) The guy can't be sent down to stretch his arm out without passing him through waivers. The only way to stretch his arm out to starting innings is to work him a few times as a starter to build up his arm. It's the right move. This.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 2, 2014 -> 01:51 PM) This isn't exactly revolutionary thinking. In fact, I'd venture to say its the preferred method since the moneyball days, but you know stuff happens that makes teams have to deviate from this master plan. I know it's not revolutionary, but it's a more reasonable way to develop a long-term winner than acting like you can spend a ton of money every offseason. You can spend money, and of course the Sox WILL spend money, but you pick your timing based on reasonable projections of your core's performance down the line. You do so because if you don't, you will be mired in terrible contracts and hemorrhaging money. Not a sustainable plan. QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 2, 2014 -> 01:51 PM) $100M payroll per over the next 5 years isn't a blank check. They can easily take a top 3 free agent pitcher next year and have plenty of room to spare Depending on development this year, the pitcher, and the price, I hope they do. The reason I used the phrase "blank check" is because you're referencing the Yankees as though they're a comparable model for us to follow.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 2, 2014 -> 01:48 PM) Last time out he got 11 outs, and 10 K's Ahh, good point. Did not remember that. I'd say some of our guys are more than capable of a nice groundout every now and then, though.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ May 2, 2014 -> 11:59 AM) I say 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 11 K's for Salazar. 6.2 IP, 3 R (2 ER) for Danks in a 6-3 win. All but 3 outs via the K?

QUOTE (raBBit @ May 2, 2014 -> 10:12 AM) I really think the team can and will employ both of these strategies. I don't know if he's considered a big time FA, but Justin Masterson is a guy that would make sense. Sinkerballer, RH, expensive but not grotesquely expensive. I'd want Shields (depending on the price) but Masterson seems to be more aligned with the team's tendencies. I agree that Masterson would be a great target for us for all the reasons you mentioned, depending on how this year's development turns out. The arrow is pointing up right now, but we haven't played a game in May yet, so that may change.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ May 1, 2014 -> 09:28 PM) This is right. For the rebuild Hahn wanted young impact now guys, Eaton, Abreu, A. Garcia, and Davidson. And he gave up the pitching to get bats. So of course he went for Tanaka, who is young and impactful right now. Hahn saw this as a chance at sustained sucess, just not one and done playoff appearances. But Hahn should also know it's very difficult to get a full young talented roster. Every sucessful team has high priced vets wether they come from free agency or the team developed and resigned or extended them. With Tanaka the Sox probably had their fingers crossed that if he and Abreu both were better than advertised they had a shot this year and if not that, surely next year with Eaton, A. Garcia , Viciedo and others with another year under their belts. But now without Tanaka the Sox will be in scramble mode for high end starters and not just young ones. The questions the Sox have to ask now if the young lineup proves to have staying power what do they do to get pitching ? Is it back in "all in" mode ? Do they give up prospects, look internationally, free agency ? The easy part is now over. Hahn gave up the high priced talent and a young starter and young closer with value for young position talent. Now Dunn is the only hold over high priced vet and the Sox might end up with nothing for him except a few million saved. How do you now get the starting pitching you need right now or next year to start this run of competing every year ? Even going after guys is no guarantee you get them. How big is the window , how long do you wait before it becomes " we desperately need another really good starting pitcher" ? Keeping draft picks, using them well, signing international FAs, investing in your scouting/development team, analyzing potentially undervalued assets using advanced metrics and scouting, signing low-risk high-reward guys, signing the occasional and very targeted FA acquisition, and saving your bullets until you can make them count. EDIT: Totally agree, the above is the extremely hard part. But Marty's wish for a blank check is a pipe dream. Only two teams have really made it work, and they're two of the richest teams in baseball. Even LAD has 0 recent championships to boast about.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 1, 2014 -> 08:04 PM) I don't think they ever have. They also never hired a farm director who is serving time for skimming bonuses. Wait, the Sox haven't gotten a new farm director since Wilder? HE'S STILL THE SOX' FARM DIRECTOR!? Well then, you're right, let's take care of that first!

It's much smarter to use the Cardinals than the Yankees as a model organization. The principle that "the White Sox should behave like the Yankees" is a recipe for disaster. You haven't seen the Cards overpaying in free agency very much lately. Rather, they have benefited from sustained intra-organizational success. How about we get that going instead? Then maybe our big city status will let us behave more like the Yankees in, say, 30 years after we've won a handful of championships.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 1, 2014 -> 07:17 PM) The Yankees don't care because they have more money than they know what to do with and they know the best way to increase franchise value is to win. Besides, the damage a bad contract can do is vastly overstated. Yeah, I'm sure being in New York has nothing to do with their financial success. Well, I'm sold! All we have to do is spend infinity dollars every year and we're set! It's amazing that 28 other teams haven't figured out the secret formula yet. Maybe if everyone spends infinity dollars, everyone can win a championship every year!

QUOTE (LDF @ Apr 30, 2014 -> 12:45 AM) cough .... cough .... PED .... cough .... cough ...wut? Because he turned into a slap hitter?

Post edited for stupid math error. I am wrong, he is lucky.

Another way to look at the luck component: Given his batted ball stats, is he getting lucky on top of that? He's got 75 ABs, of which 32.6% are LD, 47.8% are GB and 19.6% are FB. Given the avg associated with each of those numbers, how many hits would we expect T-Flow to have? (.714*.326*75)+(.238*.478*75)+(.139*.196*75) = 28.033 hits How many hits does Tyler Flowers have? 28. EDIT: Statement retracted. I didn't subtract his K's. He should have 17 hits. He's super lucky

I like this article on the topic of BABIP and its components. Line drives fall for hits ~70% of the time while fly balls fall roughly 15% of the time. Given that Flowers is #4 in LD% among players with ≥ 80 PAs and 14th lowest in FB%, I'd say his BABIP makes a fair amount of sense. Now, you could consider those batted ball numbers luck, but wouldn't you expect that a player playing well would hit a high proportion of line drives? Isn't it also true that a player hitting well must inherently have a high BABIP? After all, unless you have monster HR numbers and never strike out, your high average will be accompanied by an even higher BABIP. All that said, Flowers will come down to earth, because he's probably not all of the sudden a prolific line drive hitter. If he somehow is, his BABIP will stay somewhat high and it won't just be luck.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 07:31 PM) Anything, but what they did. Putting as much stress on Sale's outings as they did was just asking for trouble. First reason to get a starter was to protect Sale and Quintana, next was if the offense is turned around they could compete in a weak division. This is super ridiculous, unless you wanted Santana for the bullpen.

Two things: The only chips of value to other teams that we really have to "buy" with are pretty much vets like Alexei (and a couple of minor league pieces that I think are too promising to ship without leaving the cupboards bare again). and Two starters and several bullpen pieces add up to way too much for the Sox to acquire in one midseason flurry of trades. We can't make a World Series contender this year unless something miraculous happens with some players already on the roster.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 27, 2014 -> 06:56 PM) Abreu has hit shots off of some really good pitchers too Also, not just mistakes. He's been killing stuff at the periphery of the zone. Just awesome to watch.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Apr 27, 2014 -> 05:29 PM) If I were Jeff Manto, I'd leave the names Flowers and Viciedo off the resume.